Which ASX 200 stocks win or lose if oil prices spikes again

Oil prices are back in the spotlight after Iran struck three commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, prompting the US military to launch a new wave of retaliatory strikes.

The escalation drove Brent 5.5% higher on Tuesday to US$75.93 a barrel, its best one-day gain since 29 April. Prices are still down 37% from early March peaks of US$119.50, but the move has revived fears the fragile ceasefire could unravel and trigger another round of energy supply disruptions.

Brent price chart (Source: TradingView)

The S&P/ASX 200 fell as much as 1.4% on Wednesday, but strength in Energy, Utilities, Staples and Banks helped the index recoup most of that early decline, leaving it down just 0.5% at the time of writing.

While the US and Iran signed an interim peace agreement last month, tensions never fully cooled, with Iran pushing to charge tolls on the strait and the fate of its nuclear program still unresolved. The past day has marked a major escalation and threatens to undermine negotiations aimed at reaching a permanent truce within 60 days.

• The US launched fresh airstrikes on Iran and revoked the waiver that let Tehran sell oil globally after July 7, marking the most serious threat yet.

• Iran attacked at least three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz in a single day, including the Qatari LNG tanker Al-Rekayyat and a Saudi crude tanker.

• Iran told the UN's International Maritime Organisation it has sovereignty over parts of Hormuz and intends to control transit, potentially charging fees for crossings.

If the situation continue to deteriorate, it raises the question, which stocks and sectors are safe?

Just three months ago, the initial conflict drove the ASX 200 9.0% lower between 27 February and 23 March. The market bottomed from there, though not without its fair share of rips and dips on the countless peace and escalation headlines and rumours.

Sectors that outperformed

• Energy rallied 6% right from the get-go, but spent most of the next three weeks grinding higher, up 16.1% by 23 March

• Staples and Telcos finished slightly lower, but a clear sign of defensive outperformance

• Financials lower, but still outperformed on a relative basis

• Discretionary, Industrials and Real Estate all slightly underperformed the broader market, weighed by the higher oil price, rising bond yield and cost backdrop

• Materials traded flattish for the first three days, then started trending lower, right through to 23 March (but bounced ~20% by 14 April)

S&P/ASX 200 vs. sectors | 27-Feb to 23-Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Energy stocks rallied, defensives held up

The clear beneficiaries were all energy-related, from classic names like Woodside, Santos, Karoon and Beach Energy, to refiners like Viva Energy and Ampol and coal miners like Yancoal, New Hope and Whitehaven. Elsewhere, insurers like IAG and Suncorp also rose 10-11%, as the rising bond yield environment benefits their fixed asset holdings. Defensives like APA Group, News Corp and Coles also managed to trade slightly higher. This also didn't stop some left-field catalysts, such as Magellan's merger with Barrenjoey, which was announced on 2 March.

Source: Market Index

Gold, uranium and copper stocks tumbled

Nineteen of the 20 stocks below are gold, uranium or copper plays. The materials sector was smashed as rising oil prices pressured input costs (most notably diesel), lifted bond yields and fed higher interest rate expectations that dampened growth expectations, and pushed up the US dollar, which weighs on commodity prices.

Source: Market Index

The bottom line

If the ceasefire frays again, the same playbook is the obvious starting point, though the setup is already in motion. Energy stocks are moving from a higher base, miners have already been smashed in recent weeks and defensives like Staples and Healthcare have already had a solid run.