Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, US stocks post strong weekly gains ahead of Trump inauguration

Mon 20 Jan 25, 8:33am (AEDT)

ASX 200 futures are up 28pts (0.33%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

  • US stocks rallied on Friday, closing out a strong week as bond yields eased from uncomfortably high levels

  • Trump will be sworn in as US president for a second time tonight

  • Flurry of mixed economic data since Friday, including better-than-expected China GDP growth, poor UK December retail sales and an IMF upgrade for US GDP in 2024

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Mon 20 Jan 25, 8:21am (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500 5,997 +1.00%
Dow Jones 43,488 +0.78%
NASDAQ Comp 19,630 +1.51%
Russell 2000 2,276 +0.40%
Country Indices
Canada 25,068 +0.89%
China 3,242 +0.18%
Germany 20,903 +1.20%
Hong Kong 19,584 +0.31%
India 76,619 -0.55%
Japan 38,451 -0.31%
United Kingdom 8,505 +1.35%
Name Value % Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold 2,748.7 +0.01%
Iron Ore 101.21 +1.01%
Copper 4.3685 -1.54%
WTI Oil 77.88 -1.07%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6193 -0.29%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD) 105,898 +1.87%
Ethereum (AUD) 5,411 +2.75%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond 4.609 +0.07%
VIX 15.97 -3.80%

US Sectors

Mon 20 Jan 25, 8:21am (AEDT)

SECTOR % CHG
Consumer Discretionary +1.71%
Information Technology +1.65%
Communication Services +1.10%
Consumer Staples +0.85%
Financials +0.83%
Energy +0.79%
SECTOR % CHG
Materials +0.70%
Industrials +0.56%
Utilities +0.10%
Real Estate -0.04%
Health Care -0.67%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

SPX
S&P 500 gapped up, finished slightly off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

  • Major US benchmarks finished higher, off best levels but capped off a week of healthy gains

  • Equal-weight S&P 500 underperformed the official benchmark by 51 bps, reflecting big tech leadership

  • US weekly recap: Russell 2000 +3.96%, Dow +3.69%, S&P 500 +2.91% and Nasdaq +2.45%

  • US 10-year yield down 14 bps for the week, while still elevated, the pullback is supporting risk assets this week

  • S&P 500 Q4 EPS so far up 12.5% vs. forecasts of 11.9% and of the 9% of companies that have reported, 79% have beaten EPS expectations

  • Global equity funds see drop in demand on rising US Treasury yields (RT)

  • ETF flows smash through previous full-year record to hit US$1.5tn, peaking after Trump's election win (FT)

  • Wall Street traders' playbook for Trump's White House return is to ignore the noise (BBG)

  • China braces for Trump showdown with yuan and equities in the firing line (BBG)

STOCKS

  • Trump promises to revive TikTok via executive order on Monday, but wants app to be at least half owned by US investors (CNBC)

  • Starbucks to announce layoffs by early March in push to improve efficiency (SB)

  • Rio Tinto, Glencore have discussed merger in what could be largest-ever mining deal (FT)

  • Apple suspends AI-generated news alerts after notification errors (AX)

  • Microsoft to lift price of Office by 30% for access to new AI tools (BBG)

  • Tech start-up Shield AI hits US$5bn valuation (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

  • BOJ likely to keep hawkish and hike rates next week (RT)

  • Asian central banks taking different approaches to currency management as FX reserves fall, growth concerns intensify (BBG)

POLITICS & GEOPOLITICS

  • Trump says he will unleash one of the most sweeping deregulatory pushes in US history starting in first week in office (WSJ)

  • China bracing for Trump trade war, aiming at industries as diverse as chips, apparel and industrial plastic (BBG)

  • Xi sending Han Zheng, the highest-level Chinese official ever, to attend Trump's inauguration (AX)

  • Israel set to approve Gaza ceasefire, hostage deal (AX)

  • Trump team crafting sanctions strategy to facilitate Russia-Ukraine deal, punish Iran and Venezuela (BBG)

ECONOMY

  • China Q4 GDP up 5.4% vs. expectations of 5.0% and quickening from 4.6% growth in Q3 as a flurry of support measures kick in (RT)

  • China home prices steady for the first time in 18 months (RT)

  • China's population falls for third straight year in 2024 despite higher birth rate (NBS)

  • UK retail sales unexpectedly dip 0.3% MoM in December vs. expectations of a 0.4% increase amid cautious consumers and inflation reacceleration concerns (BBG)

  • US December housing starts up 15.8% MoM, well above expectations of a 2.8% increase (BBG)

  • IMF raises 2025 US growth forecast to 2.7%, up from 2.2% in October and the highest among G7 countries (IMF)

Industry ETFs

Mon 20 Jan 25, 8:21am (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Commodities
Uranium 28.03 +2.45%
Lithium & Battery Tech 42.28 +1.59%
Strategic Metals 42.84 +1.04%
Steel 60.71 +0.56%
Copper Miners 39.83 +0.50%
Gold Miners 36.75 +0.36%
Silver 27.61 -1.53%
Industrials
Agriculture 26.6 +0.99%
Aerospace & Defense 151.62 +0.84%
Construction 81.0 +0.75%
Global Jets 26.19 +0.69%
Healthcare
Biotechnology 132.65 -0.23%
Name Value % Chg
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 25.49 +4.42%
Renewables
CleanTech 6.97 -0.57%
Solar 34.39 -0.84%
Hydrogen 23.08 -1.45%
Technology
Semiconductor 229.74 +2.77%
E-commerce 28.78 +1.70%
Robotics & AI 33.03 +1.35%
Electric Vehicles 23.66 +1.11%
FinTech 32.15 +0.94%
Sports Betting/Gaming 19.1461 +0.53%
Video Games/eSports 83.95 +0.53%
Cloud Computing 24.29 -0.04%
Cybersecurity 32.49 -0.40%

ASX TODAY

  • CogState reports preliminary 1H25 revenue growth of 18% to $23.9m (CGS)

  • Gold Road releases Gilmour Project PFS, pre-tax free cash flow of $337m at A$3,500/oz, project remains on schedule to be shovel ready from late 2026 (GOR)

  • Ioneer confirms closing of $996m loan from US Department of Energy, Nasdaq-listed shares up 21.9% on Friday (INR)

  • Polynovo reports 1H25 group revenue up 22.8% to $59.9m, US sales up 27.9% to $41.2m, first sales were made in Malta, Portugal and Peru (late Friday arvo announcement sent shares up 2.3%) (PNV)

  • Star Entertainment fails to receive NSW and Queensland government support for tax reprieve (AFR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

  • Uranium: Uranium ETF (URA) gained 2.4% overnight to hit a fresh one-month high (although it faded from session highs of 5.0%). Uranium stocks are starting to stabilise despite high short interest among most ASX-listed names.

BROKER MOVES

  • Deep Yellow initiated Outperform with $2.00 target (MQG)

  • Life360 upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $55 from $52 (UBS – 16-Jan)

Key Events

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

  • Mon 20 Jan: None

  • Tue 21 Jan: Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – $2.30

  • Wed 22 Jan: Leo Lithium (LLL) – $0.505

  • Thu 23 Jan: Mirrabooka Investments (MIR) – $3.42

  • Fri 24 Jan: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

  • Dividends paid: None

  • Listing: None

  • Earnings: None

  • AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.

Written By

Kerry Sun

Content Strategist

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

Get the latest news and insights direct to your inbox

Subscribe free