Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, Tech lifts S&P 500 higher, Dow climbs to fresh all-time highs

ASX 200 futures are up 31 pts (+0.35%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks higher, with Big Tech, software and resources as notable standouts

• Commodities continue to trend higher, with gold back above US$5,000/oz, silver above US$80/oz and copper crossing US$6/lb

• Tech stocks led to the upside as AI narrative boosted by renewed ChatGPT user growth and rebound in software sentiment

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, closed slightly off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher, slightly off best levels

• S&P 500 within 0.2% of its 28-Jan record close

• Breadth was a little soft, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.05%) still edging out another record close

• Pockets of tech continued to bounce amid big reset in valuations and positioning, Wells Fargo notes Q4 software EPS of 24% year-on-year despite multiples falling back to peak cloud uncertainty period in 2014-16

• US small caps outperform on strong earnings amid economic growth (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs anticipates more selling from CTAs this week (BBG)

• Gold back at US$5,000 as dip-buyers return following volatile week (BBG)

• Bessent flags "unruly" Chinese trading as a reason behind last week's whipsaw in gold prices (BBG)

• Hedge funds bet on further sterling declines amid uncertainty over PM Starmer's future (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs expects US IPOs to quadruple to record US$160bn in 2026 (RT)

STOCKS

• ChatGPT user growth accelerates to 10% month-on-month growth and 800m weekly users (CNBC)

• Google looking raise ~$15bn from US bond sale following ~$180bn 2026 capex guidance (BBG)

• Anthropic planning up to 10GW data center buildout, potentially costing hundreds of billions (SW)

• Databricks raises $5bn at a $134b valuation as it prepares for IPO (CNBC)

• Advent and FedEx-led consortium to buy parcel locker company InPost for $9.2bn (BBG)

• Big Tech's rising capex will nearly erase free cash flow (TI)

• Samsung to start mass production of sixth-generation HBM4 chips in February 2026, pivotal for next-gen AI hardware (DT)

• Starbucks introduces extensive menu update, featuring major bakery refresh and new coffee drinks (AX)

TARIFFS & TRADE

• Taiwan's top tariff negotiator says relocating 40% of semiconductor capacity to the US is "impossible" (RT)

• US government investing hundreds of millions of dollars in gallium production (WSJ)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB's Nagel says short-lived inflation decline unlikely to prompt policy action (WSJ)

• Lagarde says Eurozone inflation to stabilise at 2% target after falling below that level (RT)

GEOPOLITICS

• Japan LDP achieves biggest post-war victory on Sunday's lower house election (NK)

ECONOMY

• Taiwan's exports surge 69.9% in January, the fastest growth in 16 years, driven by AI demand (WSJ)

• Hassett flags expectations for 'slightly smaller job numbers' but says no need to panic given immigration and productivity dynamics (CNBC)

ASX TODAY

• Hi there – as reporting season picks up, we'll be transferring some of the coverage you usually see here to the Live Blog. The blog will usually cover some interesting overnight stories/data points from 8:30 am, and results from 9:00 am. Cheers

• Amotiv reports 1H26 revenue up up 3.3% to $520.5, underlying NPATA up 1.3% to $59.7, interim dividend up 8.1% to 20.0 cents (AOV)

• CSL's Seqirus awarded $16m, indefinite-quantity contract for injectable egg-free influenza vaccines (CSL)

• OFX Group is attracting interest from several parties, including Western Union, as part of its strategic review (AFR)

• PLS Group executes multi-year offtake agreement with Canmax for up to 150,000 tonnes of spodumene per annum with a floor price of US$1,000/t (PLS)

• Sims to purchase assets of Tri Coastal Trading for $94.9m and divest Houston land portfolio for ~$100m (SGM)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Commodities bounce: Another very strong session for commodities, with most overnight ETFs like Gold Miners, Uranium and Copper Miners up 2-5%. The Gold Miners ETF is still ~10% away from its recent all-time high, but the resilience of gold may give equities a bit more upside.

• PLS and lithium: Interesting to see a PLS sign deal with a US$1,000/t floor price. Spodumene is currently trading at US$1,965/t, according to the Shanghai Metals Market. Though PLS achieved average selling prices of US$1,161/t in the December quarter, and US$742/t in the September quarter.

BROKER MOVES

• Bravura Solutions upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target up to $2.25 from $2.05 (JPM)

• Sims upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $25 from $17.15 (UBS)

• Vulcan Steel upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $7.65 from $7.00 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 10 Feb: Sandon Capital Investments (SNC) – $0.005

• Wed 11 Feb: ResMed (RMD) – $0.059

• Thu 12 Feb: Apiam Animal Health (AHX) – $0.10, Korvest (KOV) – $0.25

• Fri 13 Feb: Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006 

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Next Science (NXS)

• Earnings: Amotiv (AOV), Cettire (CTT), Computershare (CPU), 

• IPOs: Eastern Gas Corporation (EGA) at 1:00 pm 

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:30 am: Westpac Consumer Confidence (Feb)

• 11:30 am: NAB Business Confidence (JAN)

• 12:30 am: US Retail Sales (Dec)