Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 shrugs off US-China trade tensions, Gold prices surge

ASX 200 futures are up 69pts (+0.81%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished higher despite a broad set of overhangs including re-escalation in US-China trade tensions, Ukraine-Russia conflict, weaker June seasonality, poor US ISM Manufacturing print and more

• Gold prices rallied almost 3%, sending the VanEck Gold Miners ETF up more than 6% overnight

• Trading updates and investor presentations from names including Judo Capital, Regis Resources, Whitehaven Coal, Treasury Wine and more

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Tue 03 Jun 25, 8:21am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	5,936	+0.41%
Dow Jones	42,305	+0.08%
NASDAQ Comp	19,243	+0.67%
Russell 2000	2,070	+0.19%
Country Indices
Canada	26,389	+0.82%
China	3,347	-0.47%
Germany	23,931	-0.28%
Hong Kong	23,158	-0.57%
India	81,374	-0.09%
Japan	37,471	-1.30%
United Kingdom	8,774	+0.02%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	3,370.6001	-0.30%
Copper	4.8585	+1.49%
WTI Oil	62.52	+2.85%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.649	+0.85%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	105,218	-0.44%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,965	+1.17%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.462	+1.04%
VIX	18.36	-1.13%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, finished at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher and finished near best levels

• Markets shrugged off several overhangs, including Trump doubling tariffs on imported steel and aluminium to 50%, US-China accusing each other of reneging on recent tariff truce, Ukraine’s drone attack on Russia and EU finalising on expanded US countermeasures

• S&P 500 rallied more than 6% in May, its best performance that month since 1997, underpinned by de-escalation of US-China tariffs, resilient NFPs, third straight month of cooler inflation data, revitalised AI growth theme, S&P 500 Q1 earnings growth came in at 13.3% vs. market expectations of 7.2% and systematic institutional re-leveraging

• S&P 500 has historically been flat in June and positive just 60% of the time, making it the third worst month of the year

• Oil prices rallied almost 4% overnight as the 411,000 barrel per day increase from OPEC+ was viewed as less than feared, Goldman Sachs sees solid demand heading into the summer season (RT)

• Alberta wildfires to shut down about 7% of Canada's oil production (YF)

• Leveraged funds have reduced bullish Yen bets, reflecting uncertainty over the currency's outlook (BBG)

• US 20-year yield briefly fell below 30-year yield for first time since 2021, strategists blame rising term premium and possible lack of foreign demand (BBG)

STOCKS

• Meta aims to fully automate advertising with AI by 2026 (RT)

• Toyota Industries is expected to accept $42bn takeover bid by automaker Toyota Motor Corp (RT)

• Apple appealing an EU order to make iOS more compatible with rival products under the Digital Markets Act (link, Axios)

• Tesla shares slip after suffering weaker sales in Sweden, France, Spain, Denmark and Netherlands (RT)

• Steel stocks rallied 3-20% after Trump hiked tariffs tied to the metal (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Chicago's Goolsbee says he thinks rates can come down if trade uncertainty is resolved (BBG)

• Fed's Waller sees only temporary inflation impact from tariffs, says rate cuts still possible this year, (RT)

• ECB set for last easy rate cut but internal divisions may arise due to an increasingly complicated inflation outlook (BBG)

TARIFFS & GEOPOLITICS 

• Trump administration wants countries to provide their best offer on trade negotiations by Thursday (RT)

• Trump and Xi are likely to speak this week (CNBC)

• China accuses US of breaching their recent trade deal and pledges to defend its interests (AX)

• Ukraine conducted drone attacks on four military airports in Russia, destroying over 40 warplanes (ABC)

• Russia-Ukraine peace talks yesterday ended after just one hour (RT)

• Taiwan says China escalated military pressure in May, deploying several warships and vessels (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US May ISM Manufacturing falls to 48.5 vs. 48.7 in April and 49.5 consensus, now at the lowest level since Nov-24 and imports sub-index down to the lowest since 2009 (BBG)

• China's manufacturing activity contracted for the second month in May, according to an official PMI survey (NK)

• Asia's factory activity declined in May due to weak demand in China and US tariffs (RT)

• Eurozone manufacturing downturn eased in May, with index rising to 49.4, nearing neutral level (RT)

• Average price of new homes in 100 Chinese cities rose 0.30% in May, indicating some effect from supportive policies (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Bravura Solutions Chairman Matthew Quinn discloses sale of ~500,000 shares, beneficially owns ~200,000 shares after the transaction (BVS)

• Judo Capital holds investor day presentation, reaffirms FY25 guidance including 2H25 NIM towards the upper end of 2.90-3.00% guidance and profit before tax growth of 15% (JDO)

• Life360 plans to issue $250m convertible senior notes due 2030 (360)

• Regis Resources reaffirms FY25 guidance in investor presentation, FY25 Group gold production of 350-380koz (RRL)

• Treasury Wine says one of its US distributors will cease operations in California, expects FY25 EBITs to be $770m vs. prior guidance of $780m (TWE)

• Whitehaven Coal reaffirms FY25 guidance in investor presentation, FY25 managed ROM coal production of 35-39.5Mt and tracking towards the upper half (WHC)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold: Extraordinary overnight session for gold, with prices up almost 3% to the highest level since 7-May. This drove a strong response for miners, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 6.1%, surging past its 21-Apr-25 high to close at the highest level since October 2012. The move was supported by a broad set of catalysts including escalations between US-China trade, Ukraine-Russia, Iran rejecting US nuclear deal, China-Taiwan tensions and a falling US dollar. Local gold names finished broadly higher on Monday, but the overnight move should drive further gains today.

• Oil: Oil prices rallied after the smaller-than-feared OPEC+ hike. The cartel also noted "steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals". Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley provided positive outlooks and expect geopolitical risks to provide further support for oil.

BROKER MOVES

Broker data is currently pending.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 3 Jun: Elders (ELD) – $0.18, Global Data Centre Group (GDC) – $1.44

• Wed 4 Jun: Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund (QRI) – $0.01

• Thu 5 Jun: None

• Fri 6 Jun: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Dicker Data (DDR)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: RBA Meeting Minutes 

• 11:30 am: Australia Company Gross Profits (Q1)

• 11:45 am: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)

• 7:00 pm: Eurozone Inflation (May)

• 12:00 am: US JOLTs Job Openings (Apr)