Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 logs sixth straight day of gains

In a nutshell:

• The S&P 500 marked its best six-day advance since March 2022 and recouped almost all of its post-Liberation Day losses

• Markets were largely buoyed by positive trade updates, despite them being light on detail

• Another heavy day of quarterly reports, featuring March quarter numbers from Champion Iron, Perseus Mining and more

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher and finished near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US stocks finished higher and near best levels

• S&P 500 logged its sixth straight gain, up 7.8% and almost recouping all of its post-Liberation Day losses

• Today’s upside was largely driven by positive trade updates, notably tariff relief for the autos industry and Lutnick’s comments on a trade deal (but did not name which country)

• Markets still largely in waiting mode ahead of an avalanche of macro data over the next 24 hours and earnings from four of the Mag-7 names

• S&P 500 down 7.6% in Trump's first 100 days, worst start since Ford administration in 1974 (FT)

STOCKS

• Amazon says it will not display the cost of US tariffs on products (AX)

• Pfizer CEO says tariff uncertainty is deterring further US investment in manufacturing, R&D, expects $150m in costs from existing tariffs (CNBC)

• Coca-Cola holding firm on prices even as trade war drives up costs (YF)

• UPS to cut 20,000 jobs, cites biggest potential impact to trade in a century (RT)

• CEOs from Nvidia, Eli Lilly, J&J, SoftBank to visit White House to highlight their US investments made in the first 100 days of Trump's second term (BBG)

• Alibaba rolls out latest Qwen3 series of AI models, which rival DeepSeek's performance, at lower costs (BBG)

• AstraZeneca posts higher-than-expected Q1 profit but weaker than expected sales of key cancer medicines (BBG)

• Deutsche Bank posts highest quarterly pre-tax profit in 14 years, driven by investment banking (FT)

• BP cut its share buyback to $750m due to lower oil prices and rising debt (BBG)

• Spotify shares tank after first quarter gross profit margins of 31.5% and 689 million MAUs fall short of analyst expectations (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Trump to sign executive order easing impact of auto tariffs, this prevents duties on foreign-made vehicles from stacking on top of other levies and lessening charges on overseas parts (BBG)

• China denies ongoing tariff talks with US again, urges nations to resist 'bully' Trump (BBG)

• China reassures it won't flood markets with goods despite US trade war (RT)

• Japan warns US tariffs could push Asian economies closer to China (BBG)

ECONOMY

• Spain GDP growth slows to 0.6% in the first quarter, but still well-ahead of Eurozone peers (RT) 

ASX TODAY

• Alcoa issues statement on San Ciprian operations in Spain amid country-wide power outage, ongoing assessment to determine full extent of the operational and financial impact (AAI)

• Champion Iron reports Q4 iron ore production 3.2m wmt at C$80/dmt, a slight miss against consensus expectations (CIA)

• Horizon Minerals reports Q3 cash outflows of $7.5m, with $6.0m cash at bank or less than one quarter of funding, says ~60,000 tonnes from Greenfields Mill should see cash flow injection in early May (HRZ)

• Peninsula Energy shares suspended since 16-Apr and investors widely expect a production guidance downgrade (AFR)

• Perseus Mining reports Q3 gold production of 121.6koz (1.7% beat vs. 119.5koz consensus), AISC of $1,177/oz (14% lower than $1,374 cons), says Q4 to date operating performance on track to deliver or beat guidance (PRU)

• Sandon Capital pushes for change at Southern Cross Media, testing shareholder appetite for a board and management overhaul (SXL)

• St Barbara reports Q3 gold production of 14.1koz (7.8% miss vs. 15.3koz cons), AISC of A$4,169/oz was 7.4% higher than A$3,881 cons (SBM)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Potential CSL tailwind: EU Commission announced a new joint procurement contract through its Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority, offering 17 countries the possibility to purchase up to 27.4m pandemic influenza vaccine doses from Seqirus

• Markets chugging higher: The ASX 200 has rallied approximately 1.7% since the 3 April 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement, fueled by gains in Telcos, Staples, Financials, and Tech, with each sector up over 3% in the past month. Despite concerns from analysts about stretched valuations and potential earnings downgrades, the market seems to be anticipating a favorable trade outcome. The V-shaped rally is a positive sign, suggesting the market may have found its bottom, even as indicators point to increasingly overbought conditions.

• Quarterlies galore: Another relatively heavy day of quarterly reports. Yesterday featured a massive MinRes rally (+13.1%) despite a relatively poor report, and a sharp selloff for Northern Star (-4.7%) after missing Q1 numbers.

BROKER MOVES

• Catalyst Metals downgraded to Hold from Buy but target up to $6.30 from $5.50 (BP)

• Sandfire Resources downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target up to $10.90 from $10.80 (MQG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 30 Apr: Bank of Queensland (BOQ) – $0.18

• Thu 1 May: Om Holdings (OMH) – $0.004, Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – $0.012, Wam Strategic Value (WAR) – $0.03

• Fri 2 May: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: SDI Ltd (SDI), Yancoal Australia (YAL), Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP), Rural Funds Group (RFF), Centuria Office REIT (COF), Cedar Woods Properties (CWP), Kogan.com (KGN), Duratec (DUR), RAM Essential Services Property Fund (REP)

• Listing: WAM Income Maximiser (WMX)

• Earnings: Plenti (PLT)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Inflation Rate (MAR)

• 11:30 am: China Manufacturing and Services PMI (APR)

• 3:30 pm: France GDP (Q1)

• 4:45 pm: France Inflation Rate (APR)

• 6:00 pm: Germany GDP (Q1)

• 7:00 pm: Eurozone GDP (Q1)

• 10:00 pm: Germany Inflation Rate (APR)

• 10:30 pm: US GDP (Q1)

• 12:00 am: US Core PCE Price Index (MAR)