Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs + CBA, Computershare, IAG earnings

ASX 200 futures are up 14pts (+0.15%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit fresh all-time high as the overnight US inflation data was seen as enough to support a Fed rate cut in September

• Fed September rate cut bets ticked slightly higher after the inflation print, up to ~93%

• Volume of results continues to ramp up, with CBA, IAG, Computershare and more due to report today

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gapped up, trended higher and close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher and closed near best levels

• S&P 500 marked its first record high since 28-Jul, closing above 6,400 for the first time

• Nasdaq at record highs, Russell 2000 posted is best day since May

• Today’s big story – Largely in-line US inflation print was a big tailwind for stocks, the bottom takeaway was that the data should be enough to see a Fed rate cut at the September meeting

• Fed September rate cut probability currently hovering ~93% (up 5 bps after CPI) 

• Trump's 15% fee on chip sales to China could lower Treasury issuance (AX)

• S&P 500 CEOs show minimal recession concerns on earnings calls, despite tariff, inflation, and demand worries (BBG)

• US companies slash cash holdings, seeking higher returns in treasury bills (RT)

STOCKS

• Meta's Threads now has more than 400 million monthly active users (TC)

• Cargill revenue declines to the lowest in four years amid declining crop prices and corporate restructure (BBG)

• Trump praises Intel CEO as success after previously calling for his resignation (FT)

• Spirit Airlines faces bankruptcy risks from weak demand, planning pilot furloughs to conserve funds (RT)

TARIFFS

• Canada imports more vehicles from Mexico than US, a first in 30 years (BBG)

• US tariff revenue reached a fresh monthly record in July, climbing to $28bn (BBG)

• China urges domestic firms to avoid Nvidia H20 chips, particularly for government and national security work (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Trump urges Fed rate cuts, cites "major lawsuit" against Powell over building renovations (RT)

• Kansas City Fed's Schmid favours holding rates, watching demand amid tariff concerns (BBG)

• RBA cuts cash rate as expected, remains data dependent (BBG)

• RBA Bullock signals couple more rate cuts incoming (BBG)

US INFLATION

• July core inflation up 0.3% m/m, in-line with ests but up from 0.2% in June

• Annualised core up 3.1%, slightly above 3.0% ests

• Headline inflation up 0.2% m/m, in-line with ests and down from 0.3% in June

• Annualised headline of 2.7%, below 2.8% ests

• Index shelter up 0.2% m/m and the primary driver of the monthly increase

• Tariff-impacted categories showing mixed but limited impact so far

ECONOMY

• Australian business confidence improves, but conditions ease (RT)

• Singapore upgrades 2025 GDP forecast on export frontloading, reduced trade tensions (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• CBA reports FY25 cash NPAT up 4% to $10.25bn, net interest margin of 2.08%, total dividend up 4 to $4.85 per share, all numbers pretty much in-line with market expectations (CBA) 

• Computershare reports FY25 management EPS $1.35, in-line with guidance and consensus, final dividend up 14% to 48 cps, FY26 management EPS guidance $1.40 also in-line (CPU)

• Insurance Australia reports FY25 cash earnings $1.17bn vs. $1.22bn ests, guides to FY26 GWP low-to-mid single digit growth (IAG)

• Platinum Asset Management fund manager Rodney Forrest charged with insider trading in relation to takeover offer (PPT)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Bullish US lead: A very strong overnight session with all US sectors closing higher, and most of our overnight ETF watchlist up 1-3%, notably homebuilders, steel, copper and biotechs.

• Earnings look tame: CBA numbers were pretty much all in-line with market estimates, Computershare also very in-line, Insurance Australia already suffered 6.8% selloff on 10-11 Aug following QBE's half-year results (strong numbers, concerns about deceleration in premium rate increases).

BROKER MOVES

• Capricorn Metals downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target unchanged at $10.25 (JPM)

• Corporate Travel downgraded to Neutral from Buy but target up to $16.70 from $13.55 (UBS)

• Dicker Data initiated Neutral with $9.35 target (MQG)

• Genesis Minerals upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $4.40 from $4.20 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 13 Aug: ResMed (RMD) – $0.065

• Thu 14 Aug: Korvest (KOV) – $0.50, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Reckon (RKN) – $0.025, Rio Tinto (RIO) – $2.268, WAM Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.002

• Fri 15 Aug: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: AGL Energy (AGL), Computershare (CPU), Arena REIT (ARF), Bravura Solutions (BVS), Commonwealth Bank (CBA), Evolution Mining (EVN), Insurance Australia (IAG) 

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.