ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 13th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, August 13. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 12:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

Treasury Wine fades early gains

[11:52 am] Treasury Wine shares rallied as much as 5.6% in early trade, potentially buoyed by:

• Penfolds growth outlook maintained, despite soft China trends

• Americas hit by distributor change, though this was flagged in previous announcements

• Share buyback announced, mixed analyst takeaways as it was earlier and smaller than expected

The stock is also trading near decade lows, so there may be some perceived value around these levels. The stock is now up just 0.9% ($7.70).

Citi's take on CBA

[11:49 am] Citi says the result was largely in-line, aided by a lower quality trading income beat, higher capitalised costs in the second half and better asset quality. Despite the solid outcome, the analysts retained a Sell rating and $100 target price.

"From a franchise perspective, we see the benefits in this result from CBA’s better funding and replicating portfolio benefits which is supporting stronger credit growth, all while the bank reinvests into its already peer leading technology," the analysts said.

CBA trends lower

[10:18 am] CBA shares continue to ease in early trade, now down 3.5% ($172.55). The stock opened 1.0% lower ($176.88) after reporting a FY25 numbers that broadly met market expectations.

• Net profit after tax up 4% to $10.25bn vs. $10.25bn ests

• Total dividend up 4% to $4.85 vs. $4.84 ests

• Net interest margin up 9 bps to 2.08% vs. 2.08% ests

• CET1 ratio flat at 12.3% vs. 12.2% ests

• Return on equity down 10 bps to 13.5% vs. 13.7% ests

The resource sector is also up massively, with the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index on an eight day win streak, up 8.1%. This may be driving some capital rotation out of CBA, and into names like BHP.

ASX 200 opens flat, CBA tumbles

[10:10 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is trading flat is weakness from names like CBA (-2.5%) and AGL (-11%) offset strength from sectors like Tech (+1.2%), Materials (+0.6%) and Real Estate (+0.5%).

AGL tumbles on earnings miss, weak guidance

[10:05 am] AGL shares tumbled as much as 10% in early trade after its FY25 results and FY26 guidance missed market expectations.

• Revenue of $14.39bn vs. $14.05bn ests (+2.4% beat)

• Underlying EBITDA of $2.01bn vs. $2.06bn ests (-2.4% miss)

• EBIT of $1.21bn vs. $1.22bn ests (-0.8% miss)

• Underlying NPAT of $640m vs. $658.0m ests (-2.7% miss)

The company also guided to FY26 underlying NPAT between $500-700 million vs. market expectations of $672.4 million.

Bravura Solutions FY25 results: Broad beat, FY26 strong

[9:52 am] Bravura Solutions reported a strong set of numbers for FY25 and an FY26 guidance that topped E&P estimates.

• Revenue of $258.7m vs. $251.6m ests

• Cash EBITDA of $43.8m vs. $40.4m ests

• UNPAT of $24.4m vs. $28.6m ests

• Final dividend of 2.92 cents per share plus a special dividend of 1.79 cents per share (vs. E&P ests of 2.2 cents for the second half)

"Cash EBITDA guidance for FY26 of >$50m is inline with E&Pf ($50.9m ) and well ahead of VA Cons at $45.7m," noted E&P analyst Olivier Coulon.

Evolution Mining FY25 NPAT doubles

[9:23 am] It should come as no surprise that gold miners are printing money as bullion prices hover around record levels.

Evolution's FY25 result was broadly in-line with market expectations (as quarterly updates provide a clear read through of what to expect).

• Underlying profit after tax up 99% to $958m vs. $926m ests

• Operating mine cash flow up 49% to $2.28bn

• Gearing improved to 15% from 25% a year ago

• Net debt down 37% to $1.0bn

• EPS up 111% to 46 cents per share vs 46 cents ests

• Total dividend of 20 cents per share vs. 20 cents ests

Evolution Mining also reaffirmed its FY26 guidance, including Group gold production of 710-780koz, copper production of 70-80kt and AISC at A$1,720-1,880/oz.

Treasury Wine FY25 results

[9:17 am] Treasury Wine reported a relatively in-line FY25 result, with a few areas of beats/misses. Here are the key numbers vs. Macquarie ests:

• Sales up 7.2% to $2.93bn vs. $3.0bn ests

• Net profit after tax up (before material items and SGARA) up 15.5% to $470.6m vs. $463m ests

• Ne debt to EBITDAS of 1.9x, improving 0.1x for the year

• Full-year dividend up 11% to 40 cents per share vs. 39.8 cents ests

• Effective 1 July 2025, TWE transitioned to its new divisional operating model

• In F26, TWE expects to deliver another year of EBITS growth, led by Penfolds

Its worth noting TWE is trading at its lowest level since February 2016.

IAG FY25 results: A strong numbers enough

[9:10 am] At face value, IAG's FY25 numbers read very strong. But could we see a QBE-like reaction (reported first-half NPAT and dividend growth of ~29% but stock sold off ~8% amid concerns that premium price increases may be slowing). Here are the key numbers vs. UBS ests:

• Net profit after tax up 51.3% to $1.35bn vs. $1.33bn ests

• Insurance profit up 21.2% to $1.74bn vs. $1.73bn ests

• Gross written premiums up 4.3% to $17.10bn vs. 4.3% growth ests

• Full year dividend up 14.8% to 31 cents per share vs. 36 cents ests

Overall, the dividend miss may raise some eyebrows. The company also provided guidance FY26, including:

• GWP growth of 'low to mid single digit' vs. ests of 10.1%

• Reported insurance profit of $1.45-1.65bn vs. ests of $1.69bn

• Reported insurance margin of 14.0-16.0% vs. 15.5% ests

• FY26 guidance does not include the benefit of RACQI acquisitions

A few pockets of weakness in terms of GWP growth and reported insurance profit. Though its unclear if UBS estimates bake in any upside from RACQI acquisitions.

Its also worth noting IAG experienced a 6.8% selloff between 10-11 August, in response to the QBE result (but bounced 3.9% on 12-Aug). So the share price may have already priced-in some weakness.

CBA FY25 results: Still winning, still expensive

[8:53 am] CBA reported a set of numbers that broadly met market expectations. Here are the key numbers vs. consensus estimates:

• Net profit after tax up 4% to $10.25bn vs. $10.25bn ests

• Total dividend up 4% to $4.85 vs. $4.84 ests

• Net interest margin up 9 bps to 2.08% vs. 2.08% ests

• CET1 ratio flat at 12.3% vs. 12.2% ests

• Return on equity down 10 bps to 13.5% vs. 13.7% ests

Last reporting season, CBA reported numbers that were slightly ahead of market expectations, which drove the stock 2.3% higher to a record high of $165. Overall, another operationally clean set of numbers from CBA.

Fed rate cut bets cross 90%

[8:48 am] The CPI print was seen as good enough to keep the Fed on track for a September rate cut.

CME's Fedwatch tool currently has the likelihood of a September rate cut at 93.4%, up from 85.9% a day ago and 57.4% a month ago.

US inflation largely in-line

[8:41 am] A relatively in-line set of numbers for July CPI.

• Core inflation up 0.3% m/m, in-line with ests but up from 0.2% in June

• Annualised core up 3.1%, slightly above 3.0% ests

• Headline inflation up 0.2% m/m, in-line with ests and down from 0.3% in June

• Annualised headline of 2.7%, below 2.8% ests

• Index shelter up 0.2% m/m and the primary driver of the monthly increase

• Disinflation seen in segments like energy (-1.1%), food at home (flat)

• Tariff-impacted categories showing mixed but limited impact so far

Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are up 14pts (+0.15%), which suggests the market will have a crack at crossing 8,900 for the first time on record. This follows a very strong overnight session, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing at record highs, and the Russell 2000 logging its best session since May.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.