Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Dow rally + Woodside, Iluka Resources quarterlies

ASX 200 futures are up 32pts (0.38%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• US stocks experienced a broad-based rally on Trump optimism

• Markets are getting flogged with Trump headlines (both good and bad)

• Gold and uranium equities rallied overnight plus quarterlies from a long list of local miners (including Woodside and Iluka Resource)

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gapped up, trended higher to close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished higher and at best levels

• S&P 500 above the 6,000 level for the first time since late December

• Equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming the official benchmark by 28 bps, signaling strong breadth

• Relatively claim session despite an avalanche of Trump news, including less-than-feared tariff developments, ramp up in US energy production,

• Markets jolted by Trump's 25% tariff warning to Canada and Mexico (FT)

STOCKS

• Apple iPhones dived 18.2% in China during the December quarter, with Huawei taking top spot (BBG)

• Williams-Sonoma CEO says tariff threats have caused company to slash China exposure (YH)

• Adidas quarterly beat driven by sustained strength for retro sneakers, shrinking Yeezy stockpile (BBG)

• Huawei seeks to eat into market share in AI chips from Nvidia in China (FT)

BOFA FUND MANAGER SURVEY

• Investors remain bullish on US stocks and dollar, bearish in most other assets

• Most underweight bonds since October 2022

• Sentiment fell slightly, suggesting some froth has eased

• Cash levels unchanged at 3.9%, lowest since June 2021

• If concerns over tariffs and disorderly bonds turn out to be unfounded, assets that have lagged the US are likely to play catch-up

• European equity allocations experienced second largest jump in the past 25 years

• Global growth expectations remain tepid (down 15 percentage points MoM to net -8%), though 26% expect global economic boom, highest since April 2022

• Inflation expectations jumped to highest level since March 2022

TRUMP

• Donald Trump inaugurated as 47th US president on Tuesday, vowing a 'golden age' for America and outlining policy actions he intended to take immediately (BBG)

• Trump flags 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada from 1-Feb (BBG)

• Trump calls for China trade investigation instead of immediate tariffs (BBG)

• Trump declares national energy emergency to ramp up oil output (RT); 

• Trump threatens tariffs on Europe unless it buys more American oil (BBG)

• Trump gives 75 day reprieve for TikTok (BBG)

• US withdrawn from Paris climate deal (RT)

• Trump revokes Biden's 50% EV target, freezes unspent charging funds (BBG)

• Trump to announce US$500bn in private sector investment to build AI infrastructure (CBS)

ECONOMY

• Canada December inflation cools to 1.8% vs. 1.9% consensus on sales tax relief, markets bet 80% likelihood of 25 bp cut next week (RT)

• UK unemployment ticks up to 4.4% vs. 4.3% consensus, wages still holding up (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Chalice Mining appoints Dan Brearly, former General Manager at Evolution Mining, as COO (CHN)

• Endeavour’s separation from Woolworths could cost up to $570 million (AFR)

• Iluka reports Q4 Z/R/SR production of 129.4kt vs. 116.8kt consensus (ILU)

• Paladin Energy reports Q2 net cash from ops of $43.3m, production for the quarter was in-line with expectations (PDN)

• Pilbara Minerals acquisition of Latin Resources approved by Supreme Court of WA (LRS)

• Regal Partners reports 31-Dec FUM of $18.02bn, up 4.5% from the previous quarter (RPL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Trump: We’ve returned to the kind of market where one Trump comment can send markets ripping or dipping. On Tuesday, the ASX 200 was up 1.26% at 11.16 am. When Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the market was trading up just 0.20% by 12:00 pm but bounced to a 0.66% gain by close

• Uranium: Uranium ETF rallied 4.1% overnight and finished at best levels. This could see some strong price action for local names, many of which are heavily shorted

• Gold: Gold rallied 1.1% overnight and within 2% of all-time highs. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF finished 2.3% higher (off session highs of 3.2%). Further gold momentum should continue to benefit local names, many of which have rallied 10-15% in the past couple of weeks

• Hub24: I made an error yesterday that confused Hub's total FUA for 2Q25 ($129.0bn) vs. its platform FUA ($98.9bn). The platform FUA is the key number here, which was 1.1% ahead of Macquarie estimates of $97.7bn and tracking towards the company's FY26 goal of $115-123bn

BROKER MOVES

• Hub24 upgraded to Buy from Hold with $73 target (OM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 22 Jan: Leo Lithium (LLL) – $0.505

• Thu 23 Jan: Mirrabooka Investments (MIR) – $0.045

• Fri 24 Jan: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Eildon Capital (EDC)

• Listing: None

• Quarterly earnings: Iluka Resources (ILU), Woodside Energy (WDS)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.