Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, miners set to rally, S&P 500 and Dow at record highs

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 logged its first record close in two months and the Dow cleared 54,000 for the first time, a fourth straight advance led by chips and AI infrastructure

• Brent fell ~6% to US$78.67 after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a Strait of Hormuz deal could land within a day, unwinding July's war premium

• Strong session for commodities, with copper (+1.2%) trading within 0.4% of all-time highs, while rare earths, uranium, silver and nickel equities rallied 3-5%

• Earnings carried the tape, with Palantir, Caterpillar and Wayfair all beating and lifting guidance, though AMD and SpaceX both sold off after the bell

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks sharply higher and finishing just off session highs

• S&P 500, Dow and Russell 2000 all closed at fresh all-time highs, Nasdaq still ~1.9% off its 2-Jun record

• Defensives like Utilities (-0.6%), Healthcare (-0.4%), Real Estate (-0.1%) and Staples (+0.4%) underperformed

• Breadth was still positive, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+1.44%) closing at all-time highs

• Though a very tech-led session, with notable gains from Intel (+10.8%), SpaceX (+9.4%), Micron (+7.6%), Broadcom (+6.6%) and Nvidia (+2.5%) 

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq now up a respective 5.75% and 8.76% in the last four sessions

• Traders trimmed September Fed hike likelihood to ~63% from ~80% before the July meeting, with Chair Kevin Warsh offering almost no forward guidance 

• Citadel says July’s sharp selloff and sector rotation cleared out excessive positioning without breaking the broader bull market (BBG)

• ~84% of reported S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings ests this season against a five-year average near 78%, with aggregate profit growth tracking above 47% (CNBC) 

• Involvement of US in Yen intervention an act of self-interest, determination to avoid negative spillovers (BBG)

• Trading volume in single stock leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung, SK Hynix fall to lowest since early June following regulatory curbs (BBG)

• Palantir Q2 FY26: revenue up 93% to $1.935bn, ~7% ahead of ests, US commercial up 149% to $764m, FY26 guidance lifted to $8.15bn from $7.66bn, shares up 29% for their best day in over two years (CNBC)

• AMD Q2 FY26: revenue up 50% to a record $11.54bn, ~2% ahead of ests, data centre up 107% to $6.72bn, shares down ~9% after hours (YF)

• SpaceX Q2 FY26 debut result: revenue up 90% to $7.8bn, ~12% ahead of ests, operating loss narrowed to $143m from $970m, average revenue per subscriber down 22%, shares down ~7% after hours (RT)

• Caterpillar Q2 FY26: revenue up 24% to $20.54bn, ~7% ahead of ests, adjusted EPS $8.17, record $72.1bn backlog, FY26 sales growth guidance raised to mid-to-high teens on data centre demand (BBG)

• Saudi Aramco Q2 FY26: adjusted net income up 33% to $33.4bn, ~6% ahead of ests, base dividend held at $21.9bn, with realised crude averaging about US$108 a barrel against US$67 a year earlier (CNBC)

• McDonald's Q2 FY26: revenue up 4% to $7.1bn and marginally shy of ests, global comparable sales up 1.3% but US comps up only 0.8% as traffic fell, with Skye Anderson named US president (CNBC)

• Pfizer Q2 FY26: adjusted EPS $0.77 beat ests by ~12% and revenue of $15.03bn came in ~4% ahead, with the drugmaker lifting the low end of its FY26 revenue outlook (CNBC)

• Amazon fell about 2% after Jeff Bezos filed to sell roughly 15 million shares worth about $4.07bn under a 10b5-1 plan, a day after the stock hit a record (CNBC)

• Bessent says there is a chance of a deal within a day or two to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and move towards a more normalised position (CNBC)

• Trump pressed Tehran to conclude a Hormuz agreement with Oman as soon as Tuesday or face renewed air strikes, framing the talks as a last chance before escalation (BBG)

• Qatar says a proposal has been drafted, and both American and Iranian officials sound hopeful about an agreement (BBG)

• Iran is considering allowing European nations to remove mines from the Strait (BBG)

• Bessent urged the Fed to raise or scrap the cap on its FIMA repo facility, telling CNBC the bond market has grown substantially since the facility launched six years ago (RT) 

• New York Fed Williams said monetary policy remains well positioned and expects inflation to ease over the second half of the year (TE)

• Philadelphia Fed's Paulson says keeping an open mind about rates, looking for progress on inflation (FED)

• A coalition of 25 states sued the administration in the Court of International Trade, arguing the new Section 301 forced-labour tariffs of 10% to 12.5% unlawfully revive levies the Supreme Court struck down in February (YF)

• Caterpillar cut its FY26 tariff cost estimate to about $2.2bn from a prior range of $2.2bn to $2.6bn, and now sees margins near the bottom of target excluding tariff recoveries (BBG)

• US June job openings fell 178,000 to 7.36 million, below ests of 7.40 million, with declines concentrated in healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and wholesale trade (BBG)

• Australian household spending rose 0.8% month-on-month in June to A$81.3bn, well ahead of 0.2% ests, with annual growth accelerating to 6%, a three-month high (RT) 

• Experience Co Q4 underlying EBITDA of $2.0m fell from $2.9m a year ago despite flat revenue of $29.4m, as April weather, fuel costs rising to ~6.5% of revenue and promotional activity weighed. All units bar Skydive Australia grew (EXP)

• Light & Wonder Q2 adjusted EBITDA of US$383m beat US$366.2m ests by 4.6%, with EPS of US$1.53 beating US$1.23 ests by 24.4%. Revenue of US$828m missed US$842.4m ests by 1.7%, while free cash flow of US$156m beat US$110.1m ests by 41.7% (LNW)

• Monadelphous Group awarded a ~$200m construction contract from BHP for Port Debottlenecking Project 2 (MND)

• Pinnacle Investment Management reports FY NPAT ex-items of $138.0m, 6.8% below $148.0m ests, on revenue of $1.77bn. FUM rose 28% y/y to $229.4bn. Final DPS $0.31, partially franked to 65% (PNI)

• Rio Tinto edges closer to launching the sale of its infrastructure assets spanning Canada and the Pilbara, with expected value of $1.4-2.1bn. Blackstone, Apollo, Stonepeak and KKR are tipped to participate, though FIRB scrutiny may see the Canadian assets sold first (The Aus)

• Westgold commits to expanding its Cue processing hub to 1.7Mtpa in FY28 from a current 1.4Mtpa run rate, underpinned by rising underground output from Big Bell and Great Fingall (WGX)

• Let the good times roll: Barely a week ago the headlines were all oil's resurgence, surging long-dated yields and AI capex concerns. Now oil is on the backfoot, the rally is broadening, and US earnings season is crushing expectations. The ASX 200 has added 4.2% over the last seven sessions and, believe it or not, sits within 1% of all-time highs. That broadening, combined with lower oil and yields and firmer commodity prices (minus iron ore, that's looking rough) makes a long-awaited record high the path of least resistance. Defensives like Utilities, Healthcare and Real Estate lagged overnight, but mining rallied hard, with copper, rare earths/strategic metals, nickel and uranium ETFs all up 4-6%.

• Guzman Y Gomez downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target up to $28 from $24 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 4 Aug: Australian Foundation Investment Company (AFI) – $0.17, Clearview Wealth (CVW) – $0.05

• Wed 5 Aug: Djerriwarrh Investments (DJW) – $0.043, Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund (QRI) – $0.011

• Thu 6 Aug: None

• Fri 7 Aug: Amcil (AMH) – $0.03

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: Experience Co (EXP), Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:00 am: Australia Ai Group Industry Index

• 12:00 am: US ISM Services PMI