Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, Dow rallies to another record high, Gold and silver extend gains

ASX 200 futures are up 14pts (+0.15%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mixed, with value/high-beta stocks mostly higher, offset by weakness in tech/growth

• A relatively choppy session as select cyclical pockets of the market outperformed, notably banks (easing capital requirement headlines), healthcare (trading at historically cheap multiples and signs of earnings stabilisation) and materials (commodity prices broadly looking solid, Bloomberg commodity index breaking out to Feb-23 highs)

• Oil prices tumble almost 4% as OPEC forecasts more balanced crude market in 2026 vs. prior expectations of a supply deficit

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 marginally higher in a relatively sideways session (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mixed, with growth/tech underperforming but value/high-beta stocks broadly higher

• Breadth was once again strong, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.24%) outperforming the cap-weighted index by 18 bps

• A relatively mixed session, with select cyclical pockets of the market outperforming, including banks (easing capital requirement headlines), healthcare (historically cheap valuations, signs of earnings stabilisation) and materials (Bloomberg commodity index is breaking out to Feb-23 highs)

• Treasuries rally as weak payrolls data lifts expectations for December Fed rate cut (BBG)

• South Korean retail investor holdings of US stocks have doubled to record $170bn this year, also fueling resurgence in meme stocks (FT)

• OPEC's monthly report flags more balanced crude market in 2026 vs. prior expectations for supply deficit (RT)

• IEA revises oil demand outlook, projecting growth to 2050 amid slower EV adoption (BBG)

• Aluminum prices near record highs as Trump's tariffs tighten domestic inventories (YF)

STOCKS

• AMD forecasts annual revenue growth of over 35% over the next 3-5 years amid strong data center demand (BBG)

• OpenAI expands AI infrastructure deals, though Intel remains on the sidelines (QZ)

• Anthropic announces $50bn investment in new US data centers to meet AI demand (USN)

• Microsoft expanding data center buildout, including multi-GW "super factory" in Atlanta (WSJ)

• Delta forecasts strong Q4 despite flight disruptions caused by the shutdown (RT)

• Waymo to become first robotaxi provider in US to offer driverless rides on highways (BBG)

• Meta pledges more than $1 billion to build a data center in Wisconsin (BBG)

• US insurers ramping up purchases of less-liquid private debt, making up 23% of $522bn of bonds purchased in 1H25 (WSJ)

• SoftBank slides as Nvidia exit plays into existing bubble/valuation concerns (BBG)

• IBM unveils experimental quantum computing chip Loon to be used by 2029 (RT)

• Foxconn profit tops estimates driven by strong AI server business focus on higher growth areas (FT)

TARIFFS

• China's purchases of US soybeans stall after initial orders fueling uncertainty over expected imports (BBG)

• Taiwan is considering using chip export controls in diplomatic efforts not fully abandoning this measure (BBG)

• Vietnam seeks to finalise a trade deal with Trump to address the significant trade deficit (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Williams says Fed may soon start buying bonds to manage market liquidity (YF)

• Fed Governor Barr stresses need for clear guardrails to manage AI risks in finance sector (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs pushes back PBOC rate cut expectations after it signals willingness to tolerate credit slowdown (BBG)

• RBA's Hauser indicates policy restrictiveness assessment impacts future interest rate stance decisions (RT)

SHUTDOWN

• House lawmakers return to vote on ending 43-day shutdown affecting air travel and food aid (BBG)

ECONOMY

• White House says October jobs data will likely never be released due to shutdown (CNBC)

• BofA says US credit and debit card spending rose year-on-year in October by most since early 2024 driven by higher-income cohort (BBG)

• Data centers now attracting more investment than new oil supply exploration (TC)

• Japan manufacturer sentiment highest since Jan-22, led by electronics, autos amid weak yen and global chips demand (RT)

• South Korea unemployment rate ticks higher amid job losses in manufacturing and construction sectors (YH)

ASX TODAY

• AMC CEO Peter Konieczny discloses purchase of ~60,000 shares, lifts beneficial holdings to ~537,000 (AMC)

• Infratil reports 1H25 EBITDA of NZ$514m, dividend of 7.25 cps, entered into conditions agreement to sell its 20% stake in Fortysouth to InfraRed Capital Partners and Pantheon, FY26 EBITDA guidance unchanged at NZ$1.00-1.05bn vs. NZ$994.6m ests (IFT)

• Iperionx ADRs dip 8.8% amid circulation of Spruce Point short report, citing elevated market expectations and questions the company’s financial reporting accuracy (SP)

• Xero reports 1H25 NPAT of NZ$134.8m vs. NZ$136.9m ests, subscribers at 4.59m vs. 4.60m ests, ARPU strong at NZ$49.63 vs. NZ$43.80 (XRO)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold and silver: Gold ripped almost 2% overnight, currently trading just shy of US$4,200, while silver up 4.2% to US$53.3/oz. Overnight gold and silver miner ETFs up 3.8% and 3.3% respectively. NYSE-listed Newmont up 3.4%, now just 5.5% away from its 16-Oct record high and up 23% from recent lows.

• Unemployment data: Aussie October unemployment data to be released at 11:30 am, with consensus expecting 4.4% vs. 4.5% the prior month (which was a massive surprise vs. 4.3% ests). Another unemployment surprise could place the RBA in a tricky spot given the recent scotching hot inflation print.

BROKER MOVES

• Challenger upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight; target up to $8.50 from $7.00 (MS)

• Domino’s upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $19.85 from $13.25 (CITI)

• Inghams upgraded to Buy from Hold; target remains $2.75 (BP)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 13 Nov: ANZ (ANZ) – $0.83, Dicker Data (DDR) – $0.11, Future Generation Australia (FGX) – $0.036

• Fri 14 Nov: TPG Telecom (TPG) – $0.09

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC), Dexus Industria REIT (DXI)

• Earnings: Graincorp (GNC), Orica (ORI), Xero (XRO)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Arena REIT (ARF), Computershare (CPU), Ingenia Communities (INA), Inghams (ING), PEXA Group (PXA), NextDC (NXT)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia Unemployment Rate (Oct)

• 6:00 pm: UK GDP Growth (Q3)