Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rally, Nasdaq jumps as Microsoft soars 15%, Copper and uranium stocks set to bounce

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks pushed higher in early trade and closed near best levels

• The tech heavy Nasdaq (+2.7%) snapped a six-day losing streak, as investors returned to the AI trade, S&P 500 (+1.66%) and Dow Jones (+1.19%) also higher

• Microsoft surged over 15% adding roughly $450bn in market cap, a record one-day gain in value, while chipmakers also bounced with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gaining (+8%)

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks sharply higher and finished near best levels

• Microsoft (+15.5%) surged on a better-than-expected quarterly result, while chipmakers like Micron (+18.3%), AMD (+13.0%), Intel (+11.3%) and Nvidia (+2.6%) bounced after the recent selloff 

• Breadth was mixed, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.16%) underperforming the cap-weighted index by 182 bps

• A classic pivot back to risk, with Tech (+5.2%) and Discretionary (+1.5%) trading sharply higher, while defensives like Staples (-2.2%), Healthcare (-1.6%) and Real Estate (-1.2%) sold off

• US 30-year yield edged 1 bp higher to 5.21%, trading at the highest since Jul-07, despite a slight pullback for short-dated yields, shows inflation concerns/higher for longer rates becoming increasingly entrenched, despite some relief to near-term rate hike expectations

• Nasdaq and semis soared a day after the index entered a technical correction, as dip buyers returned to the AI trade (BBG) 

• Yen surged more than 3% against the US dollar, its biggest jump since December 2023, stoking speculation of more intervention (BBG)

• Schroders, which oversees US$1.1tn, is adding to bearish Treasury positions and buying front-end Australian, UK and Eurozone government bonds on doubts over Fed inflation control (BBG)

• Kospi's record 34% July plunge has left it at its cheapest valuation ever, (BBG) 

• Ex-OpenAI researcher's $20bn AI hedge fund seeks fresh capital after heavy losses in tech rout (FT)

• South Korea's retail investors burnt by the collapse in leveraged ETFs (FT)

• Microsoft Q4 FY26: revenue up 18% to $90.01bn, Azure up 43% EPS of $4.74 beat ests by ~11%. Shares up 15.5% for their best day since 2008 (CNBC)

• Microsoft cut 2026 capex plans to $175bn from $190bn, with paid Copilot seats topping 30 million

• Amazon Q2 2026: net sales up 20% to $200.61bn, AWS up 37% to $42.2bn vs. 31% ests, its fastest cloud growth since 2021. Shares up ~9% after hours (CNBC)

• Amazon guided Q3 revenue to $197-202bn vs. $204.1bn ests, blaming a tougher comparison after moving Prime Day to June. Jassy put AWS backlog at $496bn and 2026 capex at $220bn 

• Apple Q3 FY26: revenue up 16% to $109.4bn for a record June quarter, EPS $2.02 up 29%, iPhone up 22% to $54.25bn. Services of $30.74bn missed and shares down ~6% after hours (AP)

• Meta Q2 2026: revenue up 28% to $60.80bn but EPS $6.18 missed ests by ~14%, and free cash flow collapsed to $784m on $31.1bn of capex. Shares fell 7.9% (TK)

• Shell Q2 2026 adjusted earnings more than doubled to $9.84bn, ~10% ahead of the $8.92bn consensus, on stronger LNG and oil trading. It launched a 19th straight $3bn buyback (RT)

• Qualcomm CEO says growing manufacturing costs are keeping smartphone market suppressed (BBG)

• US Central Command struck dozens of IRGC targets including command centres, missile and drone facilities and coastal defence sites in a wave beginning 8pm ET Wednesday (BBG)

• IGRC vowed to punish the aggressor, warned countries aiding the US would receive a harsh response, and said it retains full control of the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC)

• Saudi Arabia proposed a naval coalition to protect trade routes, with more than 40 countries attending a meeting on strengthening maritime defence cooperation (CNBC)

• Trump faces a choice between escalating further and restocking strained munitions, with neither path promising a quick end to the five-month war as domestic support wanes (BBG)

• Trump called on Congress to add Iran tariff authority to the Russia sanctions bill, a move trade experts called symbolic but which may complicate the legislation's path through the House (CNBC)

• Apple said tariff refunds added about 2 percentage points to June-quarter gross margin of 50.1% and 11 cents to EPS, a rare positive read-through from US trade policy (AP)

• Bank of England held rates at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with Megan Greene, Huw Pill and Catherine Mann dissenting in favour of a 25 bp hike (CNBC)

• Bailey pushed back on tightening speculation, saying nobody should leave the room thinking the Bank of England is edging towards a hike (RT)

• US second-quarter GDP grew at an annualised 1.5% in the advance estimate, well below the 2.1% expected and down from 2.1% in the first quarter (CNBC)

• US consumer spending accelerated to an annualised 3.2% from 0.5%, while an 11.5% surge in imports tied to AI chip shipments shaved 1.5 percentage points off GDP (AP)

• US June core PCE up 0.1% month-on-month vs. 0.2% ests, annualised core up 3.3% in-line with consensus (CNBC)

• Eurozone economy grows 0.4% in Q2, beating expectations as AI investment and government spending offset energy shock (RT)

• American Rare Earths reaffirms commitment to a Nasdaq listing and is now weighing multiple routes beyond the previously flagged compliance listing, including a US IPO with concurrent listing or alternative structures available to a US-focused critical minerals developer (ARR)

• Capstone Copper reports Q2 EPS US$0.13 vs US$0.14 ests, a 7% miss, on revenue US$739.7m (+4.9% vs ests) and adjusted EBITDA US$354.0m (+5.0% vs ests). Contained copper production 51,759t at C1 cash costs of US$2.82/lb, above the full-year US$2.45-2.75/lb range. Reiterates 2026 guidance of 200-230kt (CSC)

• Energy One confirms an unsolicited, indicative and non-binding proposal from Volue AS at $17.00/share cash, a 56.7% premium to the $10.85 last close and 3.0% above Volue's rejected 6-Jul approach at $16.50. Board unanimously rejected it as undervaluing the company and carrying execution risk, with the proposal also requiring exclusivity and a unanimous board recommendation (EOL)

• Michael Hill International guides FY26 comparable EBIT of $22-24m, up 44-57% on FY25's $15.3m but a 10% miss to $25.5m ests at the midpoint. Group sales $654.7m, +2.0%, with SSS +3.0% led by Canada +7.0% and Australia +4.8% and a NZ acceleration to +3.6%. Network closes at 281 stores from 287 (MHJ)

• Tungsten Mining deputy chairman Tan Sri Dato Tien Seng Law discloses the off-market purchase of 55m shares, lifting his beneficial holding to 132.4m shares (TGN)

• Risk on: A classic Tech and Discretionary up, and Staples, Healthcare and Real Estate down session on Wall Street. This might drive a similar shift in today's session. Over the past week, local defensives like Healthcare (+6.6%), Staples (+3.7%) and Telcos (+3.3%) have performed very strongly, so a sharp overnight bounce for semis and miners, and poor breadth (Equal-weight S&P 500 finished lower) could see a shift into resources/growth.

• Copper and resources: A very strong overnight session for all-things resources (ex-Energy). Copper (+2.4%) has outperformed most commodities on a relative basis in recent weeks, and the overnight gain to US$6.54/lb brings it within ~2.5% of its 2-Jun record high. NYSE-listed BHP shares gained 3.3%. Overnight resource-related ETFs like Uranium (+5.8%), Nickel (+4.6%), Silver Miners (+4.4%), Copper Miners (+4.4%), Gold Miners (+4.3%) and Rare Earths/Strategic Metals (+2.8%) all caught a strong bid. Though copper is the only one rallying after a relatively shallow pullback, while all others are down 30-40% over the past couple months.

Broker data is currently pending, check out the Evening Wrap for a full list of today's analyst updates.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 31 Jul: Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.014, Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.011, Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.009, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.125  

• Mon 3 Aug: Premier Investments (PMV) – $0.45

• Tue 4 Aug: Clearview Wealth (CVW) – $0.05, Revolution Private Income Trust (REV) – $0.013, Australian Foundation Investment Company (AFI) – $0.17

• Wed 5 Aug: CD Private Equity Fund I (CD1) – $0.04, CD Private Equity Fund III (CD3) – $0.12, CD Private Equity Fund II (CD2) – $0.03, Djerriwarrh Investments Ltd (DJW) – $0.043 

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: Capstone Copper (CSC), DPM Metals (DPM)

• IPOs: Alurion Resources (ALU) at 12:00 pm, Gwardar Resources (GRS) at 1:00 pm

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.