Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to push record highs, S&P 500 and Nasdaq close just shy of all-time highs

ASX 200 futures are up 61pts (+0.59%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell: 

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed within ~0.1% of record highs

• Copper prices rallied 2.5% to US$5.11/lb, above the $5 for the first time since 1-Apr

• Macquarie downgrades lithium stocks on valuation concerns, Woolworths to wind up MyDeal

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, close near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher and finished near best levels

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq both within ~0.1% of record highs

• Plenty of minor bullish drivers including i) VIX down to 16 from 20 earlier this week; ii) Trump pressure on Fed to cut; iii) US 10-year yield down seven consecutive sessions to lowest since 2-May; iv) Micron beat and lifted earnings guidance and v) positive tariff talks from the EU and Trump 

• Investors brace for volatility spikes amid geopolitical risks and potential oil price shocks this summer (RT)

• Analysts warn of potential selloff unless more sectors join technology stocks in the market rally, market breadth has not improved since May (BBG)

• Foreigners turn net sellers of Japan equities for first time since March (BBG)

• US Dollar Index plunges to 3-year low, investors worry about credibility of Fed, US institutions (RT)

• US IPOs jump over 50%, driving optimism that activity will pick up steam later this year and into 2026 (BBG)

STOCKS

• Micron guides revenue above forecast amid surging AI-driven memory demand (BBG)

• US banking stocks set to climb as deregulation, dealmaking and lower rates fuel optimism (BBG)

• Salesforce CEO says AI handles up to half the workload, boasts high accuracy (CNBC)

• Kraken developing app for low cost crypto and fiat transfers globally, putting it in competition with PayPal, Block (BBG)

• Xiaomi challenges Tesla with budget-friendly YU7 SUV, receives ~200,000 orders within minutes of launch (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Trump considers naming Powell's replacement by September or October, says he has three or four people in mind (BBG)

• Investor lift bets on July rate cut as 'employment risks are trending higher' (YF)

• Majority of Fed officials are leaning against July cut, more time needed to determine if tariff-driven price hikes will lead to persistent inflation (BBG)

• Chicago Fed Goolsbee says they can resume cuts if inflation moves towards 2% target and tariff-related uncertainty fades (RT)

TARIFFS 

• Trump says July 9 trade deadline is "not critical" (CNBC)

• Trump targets EU climate rules, backing big oil in US-EU trade talks (WSJ)

• China adds two controlled chemicals to combat fentanyl, raising hopes for lifted tariffs (RT)

• Japan's top trade negotiator reiterates 25% auto tariffs unacceptable as he prepares for seventh round of talks (BBG)

GEOPOLITICS

• Trump defends claims of Iran airstrikes success, criticising initial damage assessment as inaccurate and premature (AX)

• Iran's uranium stockpile largely intact after US strikes, European intelligence suggests (FT)

• Trump says will speak with Iran next week and may sign potential nuclear deal, flags easing oil sanctions enforcement (FT)

• NATO agrees to significant military spending increase, aligning with Trump's push for European self-sufficiency (NYT)

ECONOMY

• US May durable goods orders up 16.4% month-on-month vs. 9.4% consensus, new orders up five of the last six months to the highest since Jul-14 (BT)

• US first quarter GDP revised lower from -0.2% to -0.5%, on an annualised basis, GDP now sits at 2.0% vs. 2.1% consensus, largely reflecting an increase in imports and deceleration in consumer and government spending (BBG)

ASX TODAY

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• Webjet Group holder BGH Capital lifts stake from 10.8% to 14.9% (WJL)

• Woolworths to close MyDeal customer website by 30 September, incur cash cost of $90-100m and impairment of ~$45m (WOW)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Record-ish open: ASX 200 futures (+0.59%) imply the market will open at record levels. Price action for the past two weeks has been relatively constructive (markets edging slightly lower despite Middle East concerns, recouped most of those declines in a one-day rally on 24-Jun).

• Commodities (copper): Copper prices rallied 2.5% overnight to US$5.11/lb, trading above the key US$5 level for the first time since 1-Apr. This drove a strong response for the Global X Copper Miners ETF, up 6.0% to the highest level since Nov-24. Keep an eye out for names like Sandfire, 29Metals, Capstone Copper etc. Elsewhere, nickel miners bounced after a recent pullback, Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF gained 3.9% to close at the highest level since 28-Mar and Uranium ETF added 2.3% overnight to trade near fresh 12-year highs.

BROKER MOVES

• Amcor upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $18.25 from $16.90 (UBS)

• Atlantic Lithium downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $0.16 from $0.25, 11% downside (MQG)

• Coronado Global Resources downgraded to Underperform from Neutral; target cut to $0.11 from $0.19, 15% downside (MQG)

• Aurizon upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target price unchanged at $3.39 (MQG)

• Liontown Resources downgraded to Underperform from Neutral; target cut to $0.55 from $0.65, 21% downside (MQG)

• Mineral Resources downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $22 from $35, 5% upside (MQG)

• Nickel Industries downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $0.75 from $0.87, 3% upside (MQG)

• Ora Banda Mining upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target remains at $1.05 (MQG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 27 June: Arena REIT (ARF) – $0.046, Centuria Capital Group (CNI) – $0.052, Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) – $0.041, Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.025, Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW) – $0.063, Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR) – $0.124, Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE) – $0.038, Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT) – $0.109, Homeco Daily Needs REIT (HDN) – $0.021, National Storage REIT (NSR) – $0.056, Region Group (RGN) – $0.07, Rural Funds Group (RFF) – $0.029, Waypoint REIT (WPR) – $0.041

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Elders (ELD), GQG Partners (GQG)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: Linq Minerals (LNQ) at 12:00 pm

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 4:45 pm: France Inflation (Jun)

• 10:30 pm: US Core PCE Price Index (May)