ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 27th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, June 27. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Markets narrowly higher for the week

[4:30 pm]The S&P/ASX 200 finished the week with a modest 0.10% gain after fading from a weekly high of 1.18%. Today's session marked the weakest performance in some time, with the index closing at session lows and an roughly even split between advancing and declining stocks.

Some sideways consolidation around record levels is perfectly normal market behavior. However, the current unease is understandable given the market is trading at its highest multiple in the past 20 years (ex-Covid). . While elevated valuations aren't inherently problematic, they become increasingly difficult to sustain without improvements in underlying fundamentals.

Signing off – have a great weekend everyone!

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ASX 200 fades from record highs

[3:46 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 opened 0.64% higher in the first 30 minutes but spent the remainder of the session trending lower, currently down 0.26%.

We're seeing a bit of a rotation taking place, with banks broadly declining — CBA fell 2.2% while the other big four down around 1.2% — while heavyweight miners surged, with BHP, Fortescue and Rio Tinto all gaining 3-5%.

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Macquarie's most and lease preferred commodities

[2:04 pm] Macquarie's trading desk published a "Commodities Compendium" research report, which contained their most and least preferred commodities for the next three months.

Next 3 Months - Most Preferred:

• Gold - Expected to deliver one final rally as US budget uncertainties drive safe-haven demand, though this may mark the cycle's peak

• LNG & Crude Oil - Geopolitical risk premiums have unwound faster than expected, creating near-term upside opportunities despite loosening supply-demand fundamentals

• Cobalt - Democratic Republic of Congo's extended export restrictions should keep prices temporarily supported above fundamental levels

Next 3 Months - Least Preferred:

• Thermal Coal - Australian shipping disruptions set to ease in an already oversupplied market showing steep price contango

• Industrial Metals - Vulnerable to pullbacks as global tariff impacts hit industrial production in the second half of 2025

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Insignia rallies as Bain may revisit bid

[1:32 pm] Bain Capital may revisit a bid for Insignia Financial after withdrawing its US$2.18 billion proposal due to market volatility caused by the Trump administration's tariff announcement in April.

Bain’s Australia head, Mike Murphy, said on Wednesday that Australia’s ageing population as a key factor making wealth management attractive.

Insignia’s shares dropped 16% on the day Bain’s withdrawal was announced and are down 25% since early March when it opened its books to Bain and CC Capital.

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Droneshield hits a wall

[1:27 pm] Droneshield might've hit a near-term peak, with the stock down 2.7% ($2.33) after rally as much as 8.8% ($2.60) earlier this morning.

Droneshield rallied as much as 45% in the last three sessions, after the company secured its largest ever contract worth $61.6 million on Wednesday.

The deal exceeded its entire 2024 revenue of $57.5 million, with management expecting recent production and inventory expansion to deliver the full order within the quarter.

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Reece nears three-month low

[12:15 pm] Reece shares fell as much as 16% in early trade after the company downgraded its FY25 EBIT guidance due to challenging macroeconomic conditions and margin deterioration. This brings the stock to around Liberation Day lows.

As we reported earlier: Reece cut its FY25 EBIT guidance to $548-558 million. To add some perspective, Macquarie (Feb-25) forecast FY25 EBIT of $591.1 million (or a 6.4% miss at the midpoint).

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Copper stocks rally on price breakout

[11:53 am] Copper stocks opened unsurprisingly higher after the overnight move (+2.5% to US$5.11/lb). Most of these names are chopping around opening levels.

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Lithium stocks broadly higher

[11:33 am] Lithium stocks are running hot for a second straight session, with the bellwether Pilbara Minerals up 6.4% to a near-three week high of $1.40.

Chinese lithium carbonate futures are showing signs of stabilising around four-year lows, with prices currently up 2.3% to 62,660 yuan a tonne.

Other notable lithium gainers include Core Lithium (+12.3%), Lake Resources (+3.7%), Liontown Resources (+3.5%) and Vulcan Energy (+3.0%)

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Small caps making moves

[11:00 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers in early trade.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:30 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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BWP proposes management internalisation, lease reset and store expansion

[9:55 am] BWP has proposed a three-part transaction, including:

• International of the management functions of BWP

• Resetting the terms of Bunnings leases within the BWP portfolio

• Store expansion expenditure commitments network upgrade expenditure commitments at certain Bunnings sites within the BWP property portfolio

The transaction is set to:

• Increase weighted average lease expiries from 4.4 years to 8.0 years

• Increase in WALE is expected to have an uplift to property valuations estimated at $49.9 million

• Removal of management fee payable to Wesfarmers and lower operating costs

• Increase dividends, with FY26 distributions forecast to increase from 19.03 cents per share to 19.41 cents

BWP will pay Wesfarmers $142.6 million for internalisation, comprised of $100 million cash and $42.6 million in BWP units.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: BWP (BWP)

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Watch copper stocks

[9:47 am] Copper prices rallied 2.5% overnight to US$5.11/lb, trading above the US$5 level for the first time since 2 April. Momentum has continued on Friday, with prices up 0.40% to US$5.12/lb in early trade.

The overnight move drove the US-listed Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) up 6.0% to the highest level since Nov-24.

This should drive some positive flows for local names like Sandfire (SFR), Aeris Resources (AIS), 29Metals (29M) and more.

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Reece Group cuts FY25 guidance

[9:30 am] Reece says the trading environment has remained challenging during the second half of FY25, driven by ongoing housing market softness across Australia and the US.

The key comments from the company include:

• "Underlying volumes continue to be subdued and EBIT margins remain under pressure as we navigate the cycle."

• “Our expected FY25 results reflect the backdrop of continuing macro-economic headwinds. We have not seen a material improvement in trading conditions in the second half."

• “In Australia and New Zealand, volume settings remain soft, and recent interest rate cuts have not yet translated to improved housing activity. This will take time to flow through."

• "Mortgage rates remain high and housing affordability continues to weigh on the US residential market."

• "We have seen increased competition across all segments of our US business from new market entrants and the slowdown in RNC, which has impacted profitability for the year."

As a result, Reece cut its FY25 EBIT guidance to $548-558 million. To add some perspective, Macquarie (Feb-25) forecast FY25 EBIT of $591.1 million (or a 6.4% miss at the midpoint).

Its worth noting that Reece shares are down 22% year-to-date, largely driven by a weaker-than-expected 1H25 result on 24-Feb. The result was slightly below market expectations and reiterated some of the same messaging as today's update, including i) seeing little to no change in the soft market; ii) emergence of new competitive threats in the US and iii) interest rate cut benefits to take time. The stock finished the results session down 13%, and a further 18% over the next month.

Short interest has also been building, rising to a record 2.86% (as at 20 June) vs. ~1.0% in early Feb.

Overall, its a classic poor guidance vs. an already weak share price and bearish positioning.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Reece Group (REH)

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Citi reiterates oil price forecast

[9:12 am] Brent oil prices briefly surged to US$80 a barrel after US airstrikes over the weekend. Since then, the de-escalation has pulled prices back to the US$67 level, the lowest since 12 June.

Citi reiterated its Brent price outlook for US$66 in the third quarter of 2025 and US$63 in the fourth quarter. Some of the key takeaways include:

• White House signals softer stance, allowing China to resume Iranian oil purchases, further easing supply fears.

• Geopolitical risk premium fading as markets shift focus back to fundamentals.

• OPEC+ to meet in early July to decide on August supply levels amid a bearish second half outlook.

• Israel restarting paused gas fields, showing supply resilience.

• Trump administration prioritising lower oil prices, supporting oil flow from Iran.

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Woolworths to close MyDeal

[9:06 am] Woolworths plans to close the MyDeal customer website by 30 September.

CEO Amanda Bardwell said: "In February we said that we would assess the shape of the Group portfolio to address areas where there was not a clear path to profitability or the prospect of a reasonable return on capital."

The cash cost of closure is expected to be $90-100 million and non-cash costs (largely impairment of MyDeal assets) of approximately $45 million.

Woolworths purchased MyDeal back in 2022 for $250 million. Interestingly, Wesfarmers also shut its eCommerce site Catch in January, which was acquired in 2019 for $230 million.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Woolworths (WOW)

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enCore Energy reports high uranium extraction rates

[9:00 am] enCore Energy operates the Alta Mesa Uranium Project, which is 30% owned by Boss Energy.

Last night, enCore reported record uranium extraction rates from the Alta Mesa In-Situ Recovery Uranium Central Processing Plant since commencing operations in June 2024. The highlights include:

• Past 7 days (ending June 23): over 3,000 lbs/day, peaking at 3,705 lbs on June 20.

• First 22 days of June: averaged 2,410 lbs/day; total 53,022 lbs.

• May average: 2,103 lbs/day vs. April average: 1,942 lbs/day.

• Supportive Texas legislation passed to promote nuclear energy and streamline the uranium permitting process.

• Aggressive expansion strategy continues with wellfield development every 4–5 weeks.

enCore shares (US listed) finished the overnight session 9.7% higher.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Boss Energy (BOE)

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Webjet Group block buyer revealed

[8:53 am] On Wednesday, a 10.6 million share block trade crossed at 90 cents a piece, representing approximately 2.7% of the company.

A change in substantial shareholding notice reveals Webjet's major shareholder BGH Capital has increased its holding from 10.8% to 14.9%.

For perspective, BGH offered to acquire a controlling interest at 80 cents per share back in May.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Webjet Group (WJL)

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Broker upgrades and downgrades

[8:48 am] Macquarie released a sweep of rating and target price changes, mostly targeting lithium companies.

• Amcor upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $18.25 from $16.90 (UBS)

• Atlantic Lithium downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $0.16 from $0.25 (MQG)

• Coronado Global Resources downgraded to Underperform from Neutral; target cut to $0.11 from $0.19 (MQG)

• Aurizon upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target price unchanged at $3.39 (MQG)

• Liontown Resources downgraded to Underperform from Neutral; target cut to $0.55 from $0.65 (MQG)

• Mineral Resources downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $22 from $35 (MQG)

• Nickel Industries downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $0.75 from $0.87 (MQG)

• Ora Banda Mining upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target remains at $1.05 (MQG)

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What's driving stocks?

[8:45 am] A very strong overnight session with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow up 0.80%, 0.97% and 0.94% respectively.

• Volatility pullback: S&P 500 VIX down four straight sessions from 20 to 16.

• Trump-Fed pressure: Trump says he has three or four people in mind to succeed Powell, Trump has repeatedly criticised him to lower rates, calling him a "very stupid person".

• Lower yields: US 10-year yield now down for seven straight sessions to 4.24%, the lowest since 2-May. This reflects encouraging inflation trends (cooler-than-expected CPI prints), growing rate cut expectations and a well-received bond auction (overnight US$44bn of 7-year notes.

• Reciprocal tariff deadline: Trump said he could extend the upcoming tariff pause deadline, with White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt saying the 9-Jul date is "not critical"

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are 61pts (+0.59%), suggesting the market will open around record levels. This follows a strong overnight session, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied within 0.1% of all-time highs.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.