Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, US market closed, Gold and silver soar to record highs

ASX 200 futures are down 32pts (-0.36%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• US market closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day

• Silver up 4.6% to record US$94/oz, gold up 1.6% to record US$4,670 amid ongoing US-Greenland tensions

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 trended lower, closed slightly off worst levels on Monday (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US market closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day

• Trump's Greenland tariffs could boost Euro via European rebalancing of $8tn US asset holdings, according to Deutsche Bank (BBG)

• Japanese valuations in focus as stocks soar to historic high on snap election (NK)

• Japan 10-year yield jumps past 2.2% hits 27-year high on fiscal jitters (NKA)

• US natural gas prices spike on forecasts of pending colder weather (BBG)

• Precious metals surge to records as Trump threatens Europe over Greenland opposition (BBG)

• China's steel slump and African supply push iron ore to two-month low (BBG)

TARIFFS

• EU considers €93bn retaliatory tariffs in response to Trump's Greenland-related threats (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Hassett likely to stay in current role, ending Fed chair bid (BBG)

GEOPOLITICS

• Bessent defends Trump's Greenland push, says Europe projects weakness and will accept US control for security (BBG)

• UK PM Starmer tells Trump that tariffs over Greenland are unacceptable (LT)

• Defence spending surges to record $2.7tn (FT)

• China flies military drone over Taiwan territory for first time (BBG)

• South Korea to negotiate with the US for favourable chip tariff terms (RT)

• Ukraine and US agree to continue peace negotiations in Davos after Florida talks on security guarantees and economic recovery (BBG)

ECONOMY

• China GDP grows 5% in 2025 despite Q4 slowdown to 4.5% (BBG)

• Exports drove a third of China's 2025 growth, masking weak domestic demand (BBG)

• China population drops for fourth year with births at historic low (RT)

ASX TODAY

• A2 Milk abruptly dips 11.7pc, triggering ASX price query, company says selloff in relation to China’s NBS announcement on 2025 newborn numbers (A2M)

• Australian Clinical Labs holder Australian Ethical offloads 3.1m shares, retains 7.1m shares but no longer a sub-holder (ACL)

• Northern Star lifts FY26 AISC guidance to A$2,600-2,800/oz vs. prior guidance of A$2,300-2,700/oz (NST)

• Qoria reports 2Q26 ARR up 17% year-on-year to $149m, reaffirms FY26 guidance of 20% ARR growth and positive free cash flow (QOR)

• Yancoal reports Q4 coal sales up 7% year-on-year to 10.4Mt, average realised coal price of A$148/t (up 6% QoQ but down 16% YoY), the $7.2bn coal miner now sits on $2.13bn cash as at 31-Dec-25 (YAL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• A2 Milk: Very interesting to see A2 Milk nosedive on China's economic data (birth rate of 5.6 per 1,000 people, lowest since 1949, population fell by 3.4m last year). Data carries a lot of shock value, next year (2027) is also the year of the goat, which tends to see materially lower birth rates. The selloff is odd because A2 just upgraded their FY26 revenue guidance (20-Nov-25), which should take into account these data points.

• Northern Star: This represents an 8% increase in FY26 AISC at the midpoint, likely to drive some selling pressure.

BROKER MOVES

• Chalice Mining upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $2.75 from $1.75 (UBS)

• Coles initiated Neutral with $23.00 target (GS)

• Coronado Global upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $0.44 from $0.25 (UBS)

• Woolworths initiated Buy with $37.00 target (GS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 20 Jan: Bluescope Steel (BSL) – $1.00

• Wed 21 Jan: None

• Thu 22 Jan: None

• Fri 23 Jan: Mirrabooka Investments (MIR) – $0.045

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: Telix (TLX)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.