Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 near record highs, Market breadth flips negative

Thu 23 Jan 25, 8:42am (AEDT)

ASX 200 futures are down 36pts (-0.42%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

  • S&P 500 closed within 0.1% of all-time highs

  • Breadth was extremely poor, with 9 out of 11 sectors lower and megacap names like Nvidia (+4.4%) propping benchmarks higher

  • Quarterly updates from Alcoa, Mount Gibson, Regis Resources and more

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Thu 23 Jan 25, 8:25am (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500 6,086 +0.61%
Dow Jones 44,157 +0.30%
NASDAQ Comp 20,009 +1.28%
Russell 2000 2,304 -0.58%
Country Indices
Canada 25,312 +0.12%
China 3,214 -0.89%
Germany 21,254 +1.01%
Hong Kong 19,779 -1.63%
India 76,405 +0.75%
Japan 39,646 +1.58%
United Kingdom 8,545 -0.04%
Name Value % Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold 2,766.7 +0.36%
Iron Ore 101.21 -
Copper 4.2935 -0.97%
WTI Oil 75.46 -0.83%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6273 +0.08%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD) 104,094 -2.01%
Ethereum (AUD) 5,172 -2.05%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond 4.599 +0.55%
VIX 15.25 +1.26%

US Sectors

Thu 23 Jan 25, 8:25am (AEDT)

SECTOR % CHG
Information Technology +2.49%
Communication Services +1.14%
Consumer Discretionary -0.07%
Industrials -0.17%
Health Care -0.25%
Consumer Staples -0.26%
SECTOR % CHG
Financials -0.41%
Materials -0.79%
Energy -1.75%
Real Estate -1.76%
Utilities -2.18%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

SPX
S&P 500 gapped up but finished off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

  • US benchmarks mostly higher but off best levels

  • S&P 500 briefly traded above 6,100 but failed to hold on for a fresh record close (previously 6,090 set 6-Dec

  • Breadth was extremely poor, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 underperforming the official benchmark by 97 bps

  • Broad-based weakness for all sectors outside of Tech, which received a boost from Trump’s US$500bn investment in AI infrastructure

  • US stock market “kind of inflated”, risks from deficit spending, inflation and geopolitical upheaval, says JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon (CNBC)

  • 'Robust' IPO activity in 2025 says top NYSE exchange official (RT)

  • China rolled out basket of measures to stabilise its stock markets, including easing rules for long-term funds (BBG)

STOCKS

  • Netflix shares soar 9% after Q4 result topped all metrics, including a record 19m paid net adds vs. 8.9m consensus, raises 2025 revenue and margin outlook (RT)

  • Amazon exiting its operations in Quebec, leading to the loss of about 1,700 jobs (RT)

  • Salesforce CEO sees thousands of deals this quarter from AI-driven Agentforce product (BBG)

  • Google agrees to new investment of more than US$1bn in Anthropic, building on 10% stake (CNBC)

  • Puma announces cost-cutting plan amid falling profits (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

  • ECB's Knot says investor bets for interest-rate cuts in January and March are reasonable (BBG)

TRUMP

  • Trump flags 10% tariff on China from 1-Feb, repeats threat to hit Mexico, Canada and EU with tariffs (RT)

  • Trump threatens to ramp up sanctions and tariffs on Russia if the Ukraine war does not end (CNBC)

  • Trump orders federal agencies to speed up permits in bid to shrink project timelines (BBG)

  • Trump meets House, Senate Republican leaders to discuss GOP legislative agenda (WSJ)

  • Trump adopts light touch approach to AI in aim to make US AI superpower (BBG)

  • China sees room to avert trade war despite US tariff threat (FT)

ECONOMY

  • New Zealand inflation unexpectedly held at 2.2% in the December quarter vs. expectations of further easing to 2.1% (BBG)

  • Deflation risks push China provinces to cut CPI targets (SCMP)

Industry ETFs

Thu 23 Jan 25, 8:25am (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Commodities
Uranium 30.33 +3.94%
Silver 28.04 -
Gold Miners 37.535 -0.20%
Lithium & Battery Tech 41.59 -1.45%
Steel 60.51 -1.56%
Strategic Metals 41.8 -1.72%
Copper Miners 39.275 -2.64%
Industrials
Agriculture 27.21 +1.08%
Construction 82.83 +0.22%
Aerospace & Defense 155.62 -0.56%
Global Jets 26.49 -1.19%
Healthcare
Biotechnology 136.29 +0.14%
Name Value % Chg
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 25.325 -1.88%
Renewables
Hydrogen 22.49 -1.96%
CleanTech 6.785 -2.51%
Solar 32.59 -3.21%
Technology
Semiconductor 235.81 +1.45%
Robotics & AI 34.38 +1.18%
Cybersecurity 33.31 +0.63%
FinTech 32.61 +0.22%
Sports Betting/Gaming 19.66 +0.12%
Video Games/eSports 84.55 -0.06%
Cloud Computing 24.7 -0.12%
E-commerce 28.98 -0.24%
Electric Vehicles 23.89 -0.62%

ASX TODAY

  • Alcoa reports Q4 EPS of $1.04 vs. $0.95 consensus, NYSE-listed shares up around 2.2% in after hours, provides 2025 production outlook (AAI)

  • Lotus Resources advances Kayelekera Project, targeting first uranium production for September quarter 2025 (LOT)

  • Mount Gibson reports Q2 production report, holds A$431m cash (vs. $384m market cap), operations tracking in-line with FY25 guidance (MGX)

  • Regis Resources reports Q2 AISC of A$2,317/oz vs. A$2,495/oz a quarter ago, quarterly gold revenue of $482m, reaffirms FY guidance (RRL)

  • Rio Tinto expects Resolution copper mine in Arizona to be given green light under new  Trump administration, previously delayed for 12 months over permits (FT)

  • Star Entertainment lenders discuss with advisors over how a voluntary administration might go (AFR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

  • Sector weakness: All US sectors (ex-Tech) finished lower. We're seeing big breadth reversal after a solid ~6 days of good breadth. On a side note, most of the above resource-related ETFs finished 1-3% lower after a decent run. Let's see how the dust settles.

  • Uranium: Another sizeable rally overnight for the Global X Uranium ETF (URA), up 4.0% but off session highs of 5.8%. It's now up 10.2% in the last two sessions. Most ASX-listed names like BOE, DYL and PDN opened 2-5% higher on Wednesday but finished up 7-14%. It appears that local names were front-running that overnight move, which could result in a rather choppy session today. Nevertheless, a big momentum thrust for the sector.

BROKER MOVES

  • 29Metals resumed Outperform with $0.30 target; prior rating was Neutral (MQG)

  • Evolution Mining downgraded to Underperform from Neutral; but target up to $5.50 from $5.20 (EVN)

  • Lottery Corp upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $5.05 from $5.0 (JARD)

  • Paladin Energy downgraded to Neutral from Buy; but target up to $10 from $9.90 (UBS)

Key Events

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

  • Thu 23 Jan: Mirrabooka Investments (MIR) – $0.045

  • Fri 24 Jan: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

  • Dividends paid: None

  • Listing: None

  • Earnings: None

  • AGMs: Myer (MYR), Premier Investments (PMV)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.

Written By

Kerry Sun

Content Strategist

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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