Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 lower but logs four straight month of gains

ASX 200 futures are down 25pts (-0.28%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower last Friday and for the week, but logged solid monthly gains

• Trump set to broaden tariffs on steel, aluminium and other industries in the coming months

• Reporting season is over, though a handful of unprofitable companies reported after market close on Friday

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, finished near worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished lower, dipped in early trade and remained rangebound for most of the session

• Today’s big story – Relatively quiet overnight session, gold nearing record levels, disappointing earnings from stocks like Dell and Gap, White House plans for a flurry of new tariffs

• US weekly recap: Russell 2000 (+0.19%), S&P 500 (-0.10%), Dow (-0.19%), Nasdaq (-0.19%) 

• US monthly recap: Russell 2000 (+7.00%), Dow (+3.20%), S&P 500 (+1.91%), Nasdaq (+1.58%)

• Nvidia's earnings disappointed, but AI spending commitments to sustain broader tech rally, according to analysts (AX)

• US companies increasingly levered up to fund wave of M&A activity amid expectations for Fed rate cuts, continued low volatility, dampened growth risks from trade policy upheaval (BBG)

• China market turnover hits record high as bubble debate continues (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs lifts China market outlook, Morgan Stanley warns fundamentals a hurdle (BBG)

STOCKS

• Caterpillar flags bigger-than-expected tariff headwinds (RT)

• Marvell Technology shares dive 18% as data center demand outlook disappointed investor expectations for AI chips (RT)

• Dell Technologies raised its annual outlook due to strong AI demand but shares tank 8% on weak quarterly result (BBG)

• Gap anticipates greater tariff impacts this fiscal year but plans to mitigate costs over time (WSJ)

• Nike will lay off less than 1% of corporate staff as company undergoes restructuring (BBG)

• UK bank shares fell as calls for a windfall tax on banks to raise revenue intensified (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Trump planning to broaden tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper and other industries in coming months (WSJ)

• Japan's top trade negotiator expects to visit US at least one more time before Trump formalises lower tariffs (BBG)

• US begins levying tariffs on goods worth <$800 following end of de minimis exemption (AX)

• Canada no longer expects full US tariff relief, talks continue on potential sector carve-outs (FT)

• EU adopts draft legislation on removing all tariffs on US industrial goods (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed Governor Waller favors September rate cut, says “let’s get on with it” as he anticipates additional easing over next 3-6 months (BBG)

• Fed governor Cook blames "clerical error" in mortgage dispute in suit to block Trump's firing (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US July core PCE up 0.3% m/m, in-line with consensus, though a fourth straight monthly increase and the highest since January (BBG)

• China PMIs forecast to show slight improvement in factory and services activity this month (RT)

• Inflation in France and Spain slightly lower than expected but German inflation rises (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Handful of FY25 results released after market close, mostly massively loss making companies (minus Catalyst Metals) – 4DS Memory (4DS), 5G Networks (5GN), Botanix (BOT) Catalyst Metals (CYL), Elanor Investors (ENN), FBR (FBR), Opthea (OPT), Recce (RCE) TerraCom (TER)

• Austal’s major shareholder Hanwha faces FIRB approval about ability to hold 19.99% stake in near future (AFR)

• Austal Chairman and founder John Rothwell retiring from his position as non-executive director (ASB)

• Capstone Copper expects production impact of 3-4k tonnes of copper concentrate at Mantoverde due to motor failure in ball mill (CSC)

• Kelsian launches sales process for its tourism assets, these assets up for divestment generated ~$160m in revenue in FY24 (The Aus)

• Lotus Resources produces first uranium from Kayelekera project, targeting steady ramp-up to 200,000 lbs per month in 1Q26 (LOT)

• NextDC launches search for JV partner for hyperscale data centre project to reduce the need to rely on raising equity (AFR)

• Retail Food Group Chair Peter George discloses sale of 335,000 shares or 80% of his holdings, shares sold to fund personal tax liabilities (RFG)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold, silver: Gold (GDX) and Silver (SIL) miners rallied 3.0% overnight. Gold prices closed at record highs (depending on the time zone and contract you're looking at) of US$3,447.

• Pullback dynamics: Market could see pullback heading into the seasonally weak month of September and overbought conditions. Bit of a rotation to value and defensives overnight, with Healthcare, Staples and Real Estate higher.

BROKER MOVES

• FINEOS upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform; target up to $3.50 from $2.75 (RBC)

• Harvey Norman upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $7.75 from $5.25 (UBS)

• PEXA Group upgraded to Buy from Overweight but target cut to $17.70 from $17.75 (JARD)

• Sandfire downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $11.00 from $11.20 (JARD)

• South32 downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $2.70 from $3.20 (MQG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 1 Sep: Australian Clinical Labs (ACL) – $0.09, Aurizon Holdings (AZJ) – $0.065, COG Financial Services (COG) – $0.03, Fortescue Ltd (FMG) – $0.60, GR Engineering Services (GNG) – $0.12, Helloworld Travel (HLO) – $0.06, Jumbo Interactive (JIN) – $0.305, Kina Securities (KSL) – $0.038, La Trobe Private Credit Fund (LF1) – $0.012, Lion Selection Group (LSX) – $0.02, Mayfield Group Holdings (MYG) – $0.022, Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – $0.013, Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI) – $0.27, Propel Funeral Partners (PFP) – $0.07, Tabcorp Holdings (TAH) – $0.01

• Tue 2 Sep: Apiam Animal Health (AHX) – $0.01, Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ) – $0.03, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) – $0.33, Codan Ltd (CDA) – $0.16, Domino's (DMP) – $0.215, Endeavour Group (EDV) – $0.063, EQT Holdings (EQT) – $0.56, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.02, Lynch Group Holdings (LGL) – $0.09, MA Financial Group (MAF) – $0.06, Northern Star Resources (NST) – $0.30, Peter Warren Automotive Holdings (PWR) – $0.04, Praemium Ltd (PPS) – $0.013, Prime Financial Group (PFG) – $0.009, Ramsay Health Care (RHC) – $0.40, Santos Ltd (STO) – $0.209, Sequoia Financial Group (SEQ) – $0.02, Shaver Shop Group (SSG) – $0.055, Sigma Healthcare (SIG) – $0.013, Sonic Healthcare (SHL) – $0.63, Southern Cross Media Group (SXL) – $0.04, Tribeca Global Natural Resources (TGF) – $0.05, Universal Store Holdings (UNI) – $0.165, Wesfarmers Ltd (WES) – $1.11, Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – $0.06, Woolworths Group (WOW) – $0.45, Worley Ltd (WOR) – $0.25

• Wed 3 Sep: Australian Ethical Investment (AEF) – $0.09, Downer Edi (DOW) – $0.141, Ebos Group Ltd (EBO) – $0.492, Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN) – $0.13, FENIX Resources (FEX) – $0.01, Hitech Group Australia (HIT) – $0.05, Humm Group (HUM) – $0.007, Integrated Research (IRI) – $0.02, Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY) – $0.131, Monadelphous Group (MND) – $0.39, Netwealth Group (NWL) – $0.21, Newmont Corporation (NEM) – $0.264, Origin Energy (ORG) – $0.30, Pro Medicus (PME) – $0.30, Seek Ltd (SEK) – $0.22

• Thu 4 Sep: Acumentis Group (ACU) – $0.002, Adrad Holdings (AHL) – $0.021, Argo Global Listed Infrastructure (ALI) – $0.055, Atlas Pearls (ATP) – $0.014, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.024, Beacon Lighting Group (BLX) – $0.039, Big River Industries (BRI) – $0.02, Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV) – $0.05, Coles Group (COL) – $0.32, Eagers Automotive (APE) – $0.24, Generation Development Group (GDG) – $0.01, Globe International (GLB) – $0.10, Ironbark Capital (IBC) – $0.013, Karoon Energy (KAR) – $0.024, Laserbond (LBL) – $0.008, Meridian Energy (MEZ) – $0.128, Microequities Asset Management Group (MAM) – $0.02, Schaffer Corporation (SFC) – $0.45, Servcorp (SRV) – $0.14, Sky Network Television (SKT) – $0.122, Symal Group (SYL) – $0.059, TPG Telecom (TPG) – $0.09, Viva Energy Group (VEA) – $0.028, Vitura Health (VIT) – $0.002, Wotso (WOT) – $0.013

• Fri 5 Sep: Adrad Holdings (AHL) – $0.021, Argo Global Infrastructure (ALI) – $0.055, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.024, Coles Group (COL) – $0.32, Microequities Asset Mgmt (MAM) – $0.02, Objective Corp (OCL) – $0.13, Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.28, Peet (PPC) – $0.05, Vitura Health (VIT) – $0.002, Viva Energy (VEA) – $0.028

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Dicker Data (DDR), Elanor Commercial Property (ECF)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Building Permits, Company Profits (Jul)

• 11:45 am: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)