Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 falls for a third straight session, Gold and silver prices crash

ASX 200 futures are down 60 pts (-0.68%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks lower but off worst levels

• Commodity markets faced the worst one-day selloff in decades, with notable decliners including silver (-26.3%), platinum (-18.0%), palladium (-14.6%), gold (-9.0%), tin (-6.1%), copper (-5.0%)

• Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as Fed Chair

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower after relatively choppy session (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower but off worst levels

• US weekly recap: S&P 500 (+0.34%), Nasdaq (-0.17%), Dow (-0.42%), Russell 2000 (-2.08%)

• US monthly recap: Russell 2000 (+5.31%), Dow (+1.73%), S&P 500 (+1.37%) and Nasdaq (+0.95%)

• Lots of moving pieces including Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as new Fed Chair, mass exodus across precious metals amid very crowded longs, still-solid earnings with Apple (+0.4%) and Tesla (+3.3%) higher

• US dollar strengthens alongside higher US yields as Trump prepares Warsh Fed nomination (BBG)

• Oil is hovering near five-month highs as OPEC+ stocks with supply pause also propelled by US winter storm, Kazakhstan outages and US-Iran tensions (BBG) 

• BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator hits 9.4, signaling extreme optimism and a sell warning (INV)

• Gold and silver prices plunge in worst one-day selloff in decades as CME hikes margin requirements, US dollar jumps and Trump prepares to nominate Warsh (BBG)

• Bitcoin sees a big weekend tumble with no major catalyst, comes amid fading demand and thinning liquidity (BBG)

STOCKS

• Apple revenue beat driven by strong iPhone demand, management flag supply constraints due to limited availability of advanced chips (CNBC)

• Apple profit margins face squeeze risk as AI boom drives huge ramp in demand for memory, suppliers Samsung, SK Hynix raising DRAM prices for Apple (WSJ)

• OpenAI accelerating IPO plans and is preparing to go public in Q4 this year to beat Anthropic to market (WSJ)

• Microsoft experiences biggest selloff since Mar-2020 amid focus on underwhelming Azure growth (BBG)

• AstraZeneca listing on the NYSE on Monday, announced it will invest $15bn in China through 2023 (CNBC)

• Exxon Mobil, Chevron talk up long-term opportunities in Venezuela but reluctant to commit new capital before political and legal reform (BBG)

• Luxury brands not seeing meaningful demand rebound in China as housing market remains overhang on consumer sentiment (WSJ)

• Elon Musk's SpaceX and xAI in talks to merge ahead of planned IPO later this year (RT)

• Visa earnings beat estimates, driven by resilient consumer spending and strong holiday season, shares still tumble 3pc (BBG)

• FedEx shares close at record high, extending six‑month rally on cost cuts and resilience (BBG)

• Starbucks plans to open thousands more coffee shops globally in fiscal 2028, more than three times amount planned this year (FT)

• Sandisk forecasts explosive growth as AI-driven memory demand surges sharply, shares now up 10x since last August (RT)

• GameStop CEO targets $100bn valuation via major acquisition strategy (WSJ)

• Adidas announces up to €1bn share buyback after record 2025 sales aided by stable pricing despite US tariffs (RT)

TARIFFS

• China approves DeepSeek, tech giants to buy Nvidia H200 chips conditionally (RT)

• Trump signs executive order threatening additional tariffs on countries selling oil to Cuba (RT)

• South Korea, US fail to ease trade tensions, agree to resume tariff talks (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Trump prepares to nominate Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair (BBG)

• Fed Chair nominee Warsh faces tough balancing act in downsizing Fed footprint, articulating credible plan to getting inflation down, dealing with Trump pressure for lower rates (WSJ)

GEOPOLITICS

• Trump plans Iran talks while US boosts military presence in Middle East (RT)

• Trump says Iran negotiating 'seriously' with US over its nuclear program (FT)

• Trump reopens Venezuela airspace and eases oil sanctions, moving toward normalized relations (WSJ)

• Xi calls for Chinese renminbi to become a global reserve currency (FT)

ECONOMY

• US producer prices up 0.5% month-on-month vs. 0.2% ests, core PPI up 0.7% vs. 0.3% ests, largest core increase since Jul-25, largely driven by a jump in services costs (BBG)

• Trump-Senate shutdown deal struck but likely to miss deadline; Senate will retry Friday (BBG)

• Tokyo core inflation slows to lowest since Oct-2024, reflecting base year effects (RT)

• Taiwan GDP posts fastest growth in 15 years on AI-driven exports (BBG)

• Eurozone's biggest economies grew modestly last quarter as consumption and investment offset weak exports (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Qoria to announce merger with US-based Aura in all-scrip deal, valuing the business at $0.72 (AFR)

• Rio Tinto and Glencore set to extend deadline for talks on mega deal (BBG)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Commodities smashed: A sea of red for commodities last night. Commodities managed to close off session lows but still down massively, notably silver (-26.3%), platinum (-18.0%), palladium (-14.6%), gold (-9.0%), tin (-6.1%), copper (-5.0%) and nickel (-4.6%). Local resources already started to sell off on Friday afternoon (e.g. All Ords Gold Index closed 5.6% lower on Friday), but still expect some further sizeable weakness today.

• Energy stocks: Interesting to see the energy sector mostly higher. Brent (+0.20%) marginally higher to US$69.84 and trading at the highest since Aug-25, Aus coking coal futures up 6.4% to US$248 a tonne (highest since Jul-24).

• Reporting season: Here we go! The first week of February reporting season is pretty quiet, with only a few high-profile names reporting (CCP, AMC, PNI, BPT, NWS, REA). I'll be writing a few data-driven insights on how to tackle reporting season :)

BROKER MOVES

Broker data is pending. For a full breakdown of today's broker notes, see the Evening Wrap.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 2 Feb: Amcil – $0.01, Australian Foundation Investment Company – $0.145, La Trobe Private Credit Fund – $0.012, Pengana Global Private Credit Trust – $0.013, Revolution Private Credit Income Trust – $0.013

• Tue 3 Feb: None

• Wed 4 Feb: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: Mayfield Childcare (MFD)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (JAN)

• 11:30 am: Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (JAN)

• 12:45 pm: China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (JAN)

• 2:00 am: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (JAN)