Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 and Nasdaq give back gains, Big tech earnings in focus

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks struggled to hold onto early gains, as the semiconductor rebound faded and defensive sectors like Healthcare, Industrials and Staples trended lower

• Brent whipsawed after briefly topping US$90 a barrel on a ninth straight night of US strikes on Iran, then eased as Tehran signalled diplomatic channels stayed open

• A relatively uneventful session with no major earnings, commodity prices mostly lower, though copper bounced 1.2% to US$6.36/lb, Trump's 10% global Section 122 tariffs are set to expire this Friday

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks finished lower, gave back early gains to close at worst levels

• S&P 500 (-0.19%) up as much as 0.74% in early trade, gave back gains on Healthcare, Materials, Industrials and Staples-led weakness

• Goldman Sachs says hedge funds pulled back from tech stocks at a record pace in the past two months (BBG)

• Short interest in S&P 500 stocks near its highest level in data going back to 2010 (BBG)

• Everyday investors moving on from Mag 7s in favor of AI build-out beneficiaries for growth (BBG)

• Citi says Mag 7 "no longer relevant," recommending a broader AI "growth cluster" strategy (BBG)

• AI-driven memory spending raises fears of another boom-bust glut in cyclical memory chips (FT)

• Alphabet and SpaceX drive record US equity sales, with more coming and an Anthropic IPO likely by September (TI)

• South Korean retail investors face steep losses after leveraged AI bets reverse (CNBC)

• Big Tech earnings from Alphabet, Tesla, IBM and Intel this week loom as the next catalyst for the AI trade after weeks of sharp sector rotation (YF) 

• US carried out its ninth consecutive night of air strikes on Iran over the weekend, with a third US service member killed in operations since Friday (BBG)

• Iran struck back at US allies across the Gulf, hitting a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant for a second day, with intercepts reported over Jordan and Bahrain (CNN)

• Iran signalled diplomatic channels with Washington remained open via mediators, easing some of the war-risk premium in oil during the US session (CNBC)

• Yemen's armed forces declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, one of the region's largest oil exporters, adding to Gulf shipping risk (TS)

• Iran says two tankers in Strait of Hormuz exploded and were immobilized as US launched fresh strikes (RT)

• Peace talks could continue as Rubio cites Iran's desire to negotiate, while Iran says mediators' proposals received (NYT)

• Alibaba shares up 3.7% after previewing Qwen3.8 Max, a 2.4T-parameter heavyweight model (BBG)

• Apple fell 2.1%, the single biggest drag on the Dow, as investors trimmed mega-cap tech exposure ahead of this week's Big Tech earnings (CNBC)

• Intel flagged a fresh round of layoffs, taking US job cuts past 5,000 across California, Oregon, Arizona and Texas, ahead of its Thursday earnings (CNBC)

• Trump's temporary 10% global Section 122 tariffs are set to expire this Friday 24 July, with the White House preparing Section 301 duties to replace them (YF)

• Planned Section 301 forced-labour tariffs of 10-12.5% would target around 60 countries including China and South Korea, keeping most import rates at or above current levels (YF)

• Canada's June CPI cooled to 2.8% year-on-year from 3.2% in May, as a slower rise in petrol prices drove the deceleration in headline inflation (BBG)

• Alkane Resources delivers FY26 group production of 168,337 AuEq oz at AISC of $2,925/oz, top half of guidance, with quarterly site operating cash flow of $174m and a cash, bullion and investments balance of $454m. Proposes maiden fully franked dividend of 2c. Guides FY27 output of 163-177koz at AISC of $2,900-3,200/oz (ALK)

• HUB24 reports 30-Jun FUM of $164.32bn, up 8.3% q/q from $151.74bn. Platform FUA $139.49bn and PARS FUA $24.83bn, with platform net inflows of $4.19bn (HUB)

• Telix Pharmaceuticals reports Q2 revenue of US$247m, up 21% on year-ago US$204m, led by precision medicine US$202m. Guides FY26 revenue and other income above US$1bn, tracking upper end of US$950-970m range plus $40m from Regeneron. Lifts R&D guidance to US$230-270m (TLX)

• Telix Pharmaceuticals doses first patient in Phase 3 LUTEON trial of TLX250-Tx in relapsed or recurrent ccRCC, the first Phase 3 study of a CAIX-targeted radiopharmaceutical therapy in the indication (TLX)

• Copper: Copper prices have held up relatively well, rising 1.24% overnight to US$6.37/lb. But despite that strength, and trading just ~5% off its 2 June record high, a copper miner barometer like the Global X Copper Miners ETF has fallen 21% over the same period. Copper equities have shown a real reluctance to match the metal's resilience, perhaps soured by a broader backdrop of a rising US dollar, higher yields and a mixed macro picture. Good buying here, or a warning sign of what's to come?

• Lithium: Chinese lithium carbonate futures spiralled into Monday's close, down 5.6% to 143,900 yuan a tonne, the lowest since mid-February. The sector faced heavy selling after China imposed a 2 to 4% consumption tax on solar and lithium batteries, rising to 4% for lithium-ion batteries from 1 September 2027.

• Beacon Lighting downgraded to Underweight from Overweight; target cut to $1.58 from $1.95 (JPMorgan)

• Dicker Data upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target up to $12.85 from $10.35 (Macquarie)

• Lovisa downgraded to Underweight from Neutral; target cut to $21.40 from $30.60 (JPMorgan)

• Nickel Industries initiated Overweight with $1.45 target (JPMorgan) 

• Pro Medicus downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $203.70 from $207.90 (JPMorgan)

• QBE Insurance downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target up to $27.30 from $25.25 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 21 Jul: None

• Wed 22 Jul: None

• Thu 23 Jul: None

• Fri 24 Jul: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Beacon Minerals (BCN), Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE)

• Earnings: Alkane Resources (ALK)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 4:00 pm: UK Unemployment