Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall a fifth day, S&P 500 slips as 30-year yields hit 19-year high

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks lower for a second-straight session as the US-Iran MoU expired with no deal or talks underway

• Bond yields are pressuring equity markets, with the US 10-year breaking out to the highest since Jan-25 and US 30-year yield trading at a fresh 19-year high

• Bond yield backup driven by surging government debt (~US$2tn annual deficits), rising oil prices (Brent up 2.5% to US$91.09), sticky inflation (US July CPI at 3.4%) and the Fed’s reluctance to hike rates

• Chipmakers traded higher after Anthropic's revenue run rate topped US$65bn, reinforcing the view that AI infrastructure spending has further to run

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks lower and finished at worst levels

• Energy and chipmakers were the only bright spots, led by names like SpaceX (+4.4%), Micron (+4.1%) and Intel (+0.9%)

• Longer-dated yields broke out, with the US 10-year up 3 bps to 4.72%, the highest since Jan-25 and the US 30-year up 5 bps to 5.31%, the highest since Jun-07 amid angst over surging government spending and a flood of long-dated supply 

• Move was echoed globally, with Canadian 30-year yields at their highest since 2010 and German long rates back at 2011 levels (BBG)

• RBC says Fed policy uncertainty, potential rate hikes and valuation concerns may not be enough to derail the equity rally (BBG)

• Fed reluctance to tightening monetary policy is keeping long-term bond yields at multi-year highs, posing a risk to markets, says Citadel (BBG)

• Miners limited FTSE 100 losses as copper hit a more than six-month high, with Anglo American up ~2%, Fresnillo 1.7% higher, Rio Tinto up 0.95% and Glencore up 0.9% (RT)

• Anthropic's annualised revenue run rate topped US$65bn by the end of July, more than sevenfold its pace at the end of last year, ahead of an expected IPO (BBG)

• Stripe finalised an agreement to buy AI model-routing platform OpenRouter for more than US$7bn, over five times the US$1.3bn valuation set at its May Series B (BBG)

• Nvidia added about 1% as investors positioned ahead of its Q2 FY27 result on 26 August (RT)

• JPMorgan downgraded Amcor to neutral from overweight, flagging Middle East inflation headwinds and uncertain free cash flow timing despite a US$590m three-year cost-out program (CNBC)

• Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it "gets in the way" of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while separately threatening action if Muscat interferes with the US blockade of Iranian vessels (AJ)

• Iran has decided to shift its policy from defensive to "fully offensive" and set a deadline of a few weeks for the US to implement the June MoU (RT)

• Tehran would conduct a "timely and precise" military attack to break the US naval blockade if diplomacy fails, with entities told to prepare to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz (RT)

• Trump said Iran should "put up the white flag of surrender", telling Fox News the November midterms have "nothing to do with my thinking" on Iran strategy (RT)

• The 60-day MoU window expired Monday with negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme and sanctions relief never having started, foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said (AJ)

• Trump instructed War Secretary Hegseth to "substantially reduce" the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises with South Korea, citing Seoul's refusal to join the Iran campaign (BBG) 

• Only three commercial ships transited the Strait of Hormuz in the 24 hours to Monday, against a pre-war daily average of about 110 (CNN)

• 19 August levies would hit close to US$20bn of Canadian imports from dairy to cement, with no exemption for CUSMA-compliant goods (BNN)

• A Reuters poll of 104 economists found 94 expect the Fed to hold at 3.50%-3.75% on 15-16 September, with 80 seeing no change through year-end (RT) 

• Market pricing for a September 25 bp hike flipped to a near-70% chance of a hold after July's unexpected job losses, though one increase by end-December remains priced (RT)

• Japan's Q2 GDP miss weakened the case for another BOJ increase, though overnight swaps still price roughly an 80% chance of a September hike from the current 1.0% policy rate (BBG) 

• China's July retail sales grew just 0.6% year-on-year against ests of 1.5% and June's 1.0%, despite summer holiday tourism spending (RT)

• China's July industrial output rose 4.5% year-on-year, below ests of 4.8% and down from 5.3% in June, as extreme weather and weak domestic demand bit (RT)

• China's new home prices fell 0.1% month-on-month in July, matching June, and were 3.2% lower year-on-year, narrowing slightly from a 3.3% decline (RT)

• Japan's Q2 GDP grew 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, or 1.1% annualised, against ests of 0.5% and 2.0%, with private consumption down 0.02% for its first fall in eight quarters (CNBC)

• Canada's July CPI accelerated to 3.0% year-on-year from 2.8%, above ests of 2.9%, driven by gasoline prices up 25.7% year-on-year and higher travel tours (BBG) 

Peak reporting season is here! Here's a snapshot of the stocks that have reported so far this morning, with many more still to come. Check out the Live Blog for a proper breakdown of the results and how they compare vs. analyst estimates.

• Challenger posts FY26 normalised NPAT of $468m, up 3% and in line with guidance, on normalised EPS of 68.1c. Annuity sales up 19% to $6.2bn with book growth of 10.7%. Lifts full-year ordinary dividend to 31.5c fully franked (up 7%) plus a 1.5c special, and upsizes its buy-back to $450m with a further $300m on-market leg announced today (CGF)

• Deterra Royalties delivers record FY26 NPAT of $164.2m, up 5%, on revenue of $236.2m, up 6%, with underlying EBITDA of $222.2m (94% margin). Mining Area C drove record production of 151.8mwmt and sales of 140.1mdmt, partly offset by a 2% lower realised iron ore price of $135.8/dmt. Cuts net debt to $132.5m from $270.6m and declares a total FY26 dividend of 23.2c, up 5% (75% of NPAT) (DRR)

• Macmahon posts record FY26 revenue of $2.6bn, up 8%, underlying NPAT(A) of $114.8m, up 12%, and statutory NPAT of $101.1m, up 37%. Cuts net debt to $111.1m and lifts the order book to $5.9bn. Raises total FY26 dividend to 2.20c, up 47%, and guides FY27 revenue of $2.85-3.05bn and underlying EBIT(A) of $205-225m, a tenth straight year meeting or beating guidance (MAH)

• Mercury posts FY26 EBITDAF of NZ$1,068m, up 36% (+NZ$282m), with NPAT of NZ$321m, broadly flat on FY25's ~NZ$320m as higher earnings were offset by non-cash derivative fair value movements. Lifts the FY26 ordinary dividend to 27.0cps, up 3cps and an 18th straight year of growth. Guides FY27 EBITDAF of NZ$1,075m and a 29.0cps dividend (MCY)

• Reliance Worldwide enters a process deed with Brookfield over its unsolicited, non-binding indicative proposal to acquire 100% by scheme at $4.75 cash per share, a 31.6% premium to the $3.61 last close and an EV of ~$4.1bn (12.1x FY26 EV/adjusted EBITDA). Follows earlier offers of $4.15, $4.25 and $4.50. Grants four-week exclusivity to 15 Sept with no-talk and no fiduciary out, working towards a SID that will include a go-shop provision (RWC)

• Reliance Worldwide reports FY26 net sales of US$1,305.6m, down 0.7% (adjusted net sales up 3.0%), and adjusted EBITDA of US$242.1m, down 12.8%, hit by US tariffs, higher copper costs and softer Americas and EMEA volumes. Reported NPAT of just US$6.3m reflects US$103.3m of post-tax one-offs, chiefly the APAC metals manufacturing restructure. Adjusted NPAT US$125.1m, down 15.3%, on adjusted EPS of US16.5c (RWC)

• SRG Global delivers record FY26 revenue of $1,675.5m, up 27%, and underlying EBITDA of $170.1m, up 34%, beating upgraded guidance, with EPS(A) of 13.8c, up 34%. Moves to net cash of $6.2m and lifts the total dividend to 7.0c, up 27%, on record work in hand of $5.1bn. Upgrades FY27 guidance to EBITDA of $195-205m and EBIT(A) of $150-160m (SRG)

• Earnings: High-profile results from names like BHP, Cochlear, CSL and Pro Medicus will likely drive moves at the sector and/or index level.

• Bond yield unease: We're back at that juncture where bond yields are breaking out and placing downward pressure on equity markets. These episodes have come and gone in recent months, but each one feels a little more stressful as yields push to multi-year highs and the underlying catalysts persist: government spending, above-target inflation, high oil prices, a ramp-up in corporate bond issuance and no Fed hikes to anchor the long end. The 30-year breakout on 15 May drove a three-day pullback for the S&P 500. The 29 July breakout coincided with a two-month low. This one lands with the index at all-time highs just two days ago.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 18 Aug: Bailador Technology Investments (BTI) – $0.035, Computershare (CPU) – $0.65, WAM Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.006

• Wed 19 Aug: Commonwealth Bank (CBA) – $2.70, ResMed (RMD) – $0.066

• Thu 20 Aug: AMP (AMP) – $0.03, FSA Group (FSA) – $0.035, Helia Group (HLI) – $0.43, Microequities Asset Management Group (MAM) – $0.01, Solaris Australian Equity Income Plus (SET) – $0.003

• Fri 21 Aug: ASX (ASX) – $1.047

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Cromwell Property (CMW), Transurban (TCL)

• Earnings: BHP Group (BHP), Wagners Holding Co. (WGN), Amplitude Energy (AEL), Aspen Group (APZ), Challenger (CGF), Cochlear (COH), Cogstate (CGS), CSL (CSL), EML Payments (EML), HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT (HCW), Judo Capital Holdings (JDO), Lark Distilling Co. (LRK), Macmahon Holdings (MAH), Pro Medicus (PME), Region Group (RGN), Reliance Worldwide Corp. (RWC), Sims (SGM), SKS Technologies Group (SKS), Smart Parking (SPZ), SRG Global (SRG)

• IPOs: None 

• AGMs: Infratil (IFT)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 10:30 am: Australia Consumer Confidence

• 4:00 pm: UK Unemployment

• 10:30 pm: US Building Permits, Housing Starts