Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to bounce, Wall Street briefly rallies on false tariff pause

ASX 200 futures are up 55pts (+0.75%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• To our email readers – Sorry for the late email. We had some issues rendering the data this morning. Apologies for the inconvenience

• US stocks whipsawed after a fake report flagged a 90-day pause on all tariffs except China, driving indices sharply higher in the first hour of trade

• Trump threatens a further 50% tariff on China if they do not lift their 34% tariff on US goods, trade negotiations kick off with countries including Vietnam and Japan

• Deep Yellow delays final investment decision due to low uranium prices, Insignia's takeover at risk, Zip issues $50m share buyback

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower in very volatile trade (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished mostly lower in very volatile trade: S&P 500 (-0.23%), Nasdaq (+0.10%), Dow Jones (-0.91%) and Russell 2000 (-0.92%)

• S&P 500 intraday performance: Open (-2.37%), High (+3.40%), Low (-4.71%), Close (-0.23%)

• Stocks briefly rallied after a false report about a White House pause on all tariffs except China, Nasdaq surged as much as 9.7% in the first ~1 hour of trade

• X User Walter Bloomberg, with ~848,000 followers (anonymous person who not actually work for Bloomberg) tweeted “Hassett: Trump is considering a 90-day pause for all countries except China”. He cited Reuters and CNBC but it was actually an incorrect interpretation of a Fox News interview

• Trump later threatened an additional 50% tariff on China and White House officials clarified no pause is taking place, but trade talks are beginning with countries including Japan

• BofA, JPMorgan, Evercore ISI and Oppenheimer latest to cut S&P 500 targets from 6,600-6,800 to 5,200-5,950, flagging downside EPS risks of 10-15% from tariffs (RT)

• BlackRock's Fink says stocks could extend fall by 20% (RT)

• ETFs that benefit from volatility having their strongest stretch of performance on record (BBG)

• Off-price and discount retailers to outperform as Trump tariffs batter markets (YH)

• Volatility-targeting portfolios may sell $25-$30bn in equities to reduce risk, says JPMorgan (RT)

• China's government bonds surge, pushing benchmark yields toward  record lows on trade war fears (BBG)

• Rising speculation of Chinese yuan devaluation following pledge of 'resolute' response to tariffs (BBG)

• Safe haven currencies like the Yen, Swiss franc are surging (BBG)

STOCKS

• Dollar Tree shares rallied 6% after Citi upgraded the stock, calling it a “dark horse winner” amid the global trade war (CNBC)

• Stellantis outlines program to help suppliers pay tariff costs (BBG)

• Microsoft venture Wicresoft to halt China operations, lay off staff (RT)

• Sneakers supply chain suffering as Trump's tariff war hits Vietnam (FT)

• Foxconn reports record Q1 revenue driven by AI demand (RT)

• Apple plans to send more iPhones from India to US to offset cost of China tariffs (WSJ)

TARIFFS

• Trump threatens China with additional 50% tariff if they do not lift 34% tariff on US goods (BBG)

• Navarro says Vietnam offer for 0% tariff is not enough, says "it's the non-tariff cheating that matters", which includes Chinese products being routed through Vietnam, IP theft and value-added tax (CNBC)

• EU's Von der Leyen offers Trump 'zero-for-zero' tariffs deal on all industrial goods (EN)

• EU Commission proposes 25% counter tariffs on some US goods in response to steel, aluminum duties (RT)

• Bill Ackman calls for a 90-day pause on tariffs to prevent economic fallout, "alternatively, we are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down" (AX)

• China tightens controls on exports of rare earths, threatening to disrupt the global supply of key materials used in high-tech manufacturing (BBG)

• US customs begin collecting a 10% tariff on imports, with higher levies on goods from 57 larger trading partners due to start next week (RT)

ECONOMY

No major economic announcements.

ASX TODAY

• Deep Yellow defers final investment decision for Tumas, construction of full scale processing plant delayed until uranium prices improve (DYL)

• Guzman Y Gomez reports Q3 sales up 23.6% to $289.5m, comparable Australian sales growth of 11.1%, plans to introduce dividend policy as part of FY25 results, reaffirms FY25 guidance (GYG)

• Insignia Financial takeover offers from Bain and CC Capital may fall through amid market volatility (AFR) 

• James Hardie holders urge federal government to review ASX decision to grant waiver for Azek deal (AFR)

• Star Entertainment confirms $300m deal with Bally’s, includes a multi-tranche convertible note which turns into 56.7% of issued capital on a fully-diluted basis (SGR)

• Zip to undertake on-market share buy-back of up to $50m from 23-Apr (ZIP)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Here comes the 'bounce': ASX 200 futures pointing towards a relatively positive start. However, volatility remains high and the market can easily rip higher or fade to new lows. Only two sectors finished higher on Wall Street, which was Communications and Technology, while Real Estate, Materials, Utilities and Staples all fell more than 1.0%. Tariff tensions continue to intensify between China and the US, while negotiations appear to be taking place with the rest of the world (mostly). Most of our overnight ETF watchlist continued to trend lower, fading from session highs. The market remains volatile and it is difficult to establish conviction (for either direction).

BROKER MOVES

• Technology One upgraded to Buy from Hold but target lowered to $29 from $30.50 (BP)

• Trajan Group initiated Buy with $1.50 target (BP)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 8 Apr: Brickworks (BKW) – $0.25

• Wed 9 Apr: Clover Corporation (CLV) – $0.007

• Thu 10 Apr: Cadence Capital (CDM) – $0.03, Cadence Opportunities Fund (CDO) – $0.065, Cosol (COS) – $0.01

• Fri 11 Apr: WAM Leaders (WLE) – $0.047

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: BlackWall (BWF), Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Listing: None 

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 10:30 am: Westpac Consumer Confidence (APR)

• 11:30 am: NAB Business Confidence (MAR)