Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to bounce, S&P 500 snaps three-day losing streak as yields take a breather

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished higher, just off best levels, snapping a three day losing streak

• Markets bounced after Treasury yields eased from multi-year highs, oil prices gave back early gains to settle around breakeven and the likelihood of a September Fed hike edged slightly lower

• Dell’s shares soared 15.8% after it raised full-year FY27 revenue guidance by $25bn to $192bn and lifted its AI-optimised server revenue target, Snowflake lifted its full-year product revenue guidance and jumped 22% after hours

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks finished higher and near session highs, snapping a three day losing streak

• Breadth was strong, Real Estate was the only sector to finish lower, while the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.46%) performed in-line with the cap-weighted index

• US 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.816% intraday, a level not seen since October 2023, before finishing lower back toward 4.78%, snapping five days of gains

• The oil rally slowed with Brent trading around breakeven at US$95.3 a barrel after rallying ~10% in the prior five sessions

• Gold bounced 1.3% to US$4,387/oz after falling 7% in the last five sessions, commodities including copper, aluminium, nickel and palladium traded broadly higher

• European equities closed at a one-month low, with the Euro STOXX 50 down 0.1% to 6,363 and the STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 646, as utilities fell on higher European natural gas prices (TE)

• Global government bond yields sat at 2008 highs, with Australian 10-year yields reaching 5.25%, a level unseen since 2011, and markets pricing more than 50% odds of September hikes from four major central banks (BBG)

• Reuters flagged the yield threat to Wall Street's record-setting rally, noting particular trouble if the 10-year jumps abruptly toward 5% after rising over 80 basis points since the start of March (RT)

• AI buildout funding is driving yields, not just government borrowing, says BlackRock's head of iShares investment strategy for the Americas Kristy Akullian, who sees income opportunity in securitised and real-asset-backed credit (CNBC)

• Anthropic's planned listing is crowding the post-Labor Day US IPO calendar, with the raise expected to rival SpaceX's record $86.2bn debut (BBG)

• The Dutch central bank said it shifted 86 tonnes of gold from New York and Ottawa to London between March and August, citing crisis preparedness (AP)

• Japan's 10-year government bond yield held near 3%, a threshold first crossed on Tuesday for the first time since 1996 (Nikkei)

• Snowflake Q2 FY27 revenue up 35% to $1.55bn, about 5% ahead of ests, adjusted EPS 62c versus 45c expected, FY27 product revenue guidance raised to $6.07bn from $5.84bn, shares up 22% after hours (CNBC)

• Chevron will invest more than $7bn through its Venezuelan joint ventures over five years to roughly double output to about 600,000 barrels a day from around 280,000, with total costs seen below $20 a barrel (RT)

• Broadcom Q3 FY26: revenue up 86% year-on-year to $29.6bn, AI semiconductor revenue up 221% to $16.7bn, non-GAAP EPS $3.32 beat consensus by about 2% (BBG)

• Broadcom guided Q4 revenue to about $34.8bn and AI semiconductor revenue to $21.7bn, with non-GAAP operating margin near 66% of revenue (BBG)

• Dell Q2 FY27: revenue up 58% to $47.0bn, non-GAAP EPS $7.04 beat the $4.87 consensus by about 45%, AI-optimised server backlog a record $95bn (BBG)

• Dell raised full-year FY27 revenue guidance by $25bn to $192bn and lifted its AI-optimised server revenue target by $14bn to $74bn (BBG)

• SoftBank Group fell 6.4% in Tokyo, the heaviest single drag on a Nikkei 225 that shed 2.9% to 64,325.64 (AP)

• Samsung Electronics dropped 4% and SK Hynix 4.7% in Seoul as the Kospi lost 4% to 6,562.72 (AP)

• US Central Command struck Iranian military sites after the IRGC attempted to attack US troops and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz (AJ)

• Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and Iraq, the heaviest exchange of fire in more than a month (CNN)

• Trump floated renaming the Strait of Hormuz the "Trump Strait", asserting US control of the waterway Tehran has effectively shut for six months (GN)

• Iranian strikes killed two Filipino crew members aboard the Saudi-owned VLCC Sidr while it transited the Strait of Hormuz (TN)

• Energy Secretary Chris Wright said more than 17m barrels of oil transited Hormuz on Monday, a record since the war began in late February (CNBC)

• Saudi Arabia condemned the Iranian attacks and called for de-escalation and respect for the safety of international navigation (GN)

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the administration is weighing a fresh round of tariffs on imported semiconductors to draw more manufacturing to the US (BBG)

• Lutnick told CNBC that chipmakers building in America would receive tariff relief while those that do not would pay duties (CNBC)

• The Bank of Canada flagged new US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures announced after the breakdown of bilateral trade talks (BoC)

• The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate target at 2.25% for a seventh straight meeting, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20% (BoC)

• Governor Tiff Macklem said persistence of the Middle East conflict has increased inflationary risks as global energy prices continue to float higher (BNN)

• Capital Economics chief North America economist Stephen Brown said a Bank of Canada hike at the December meeting is now on the table (BNN)

• The Fed's Beige Book said economic activity edged up and prices rose moderately, with input pressures notably elevated in manufacturing and construction (RT)

• Beige Book contacts flagged heightened uncertainty over energy prices, policy and international conflict, with the pace of price increases unchanged in eight of 12 districts (RT)

• New York Fed President John Williams told CNBC that policymakers "just have to keep watching" incoming data (RT)

• Markets are pricing near certainty that the Bank of Japan raises rates at its meeting this month, with the two-year JGB yield at a 31-year peak (RT)

• Australian GDP rose 0.4% in the June quarter and 2.1% compared with the June quarter of 2025, beating the 0.3% quarterly consensus, GDP rose 2.4% across the 2025-26 financial year, while GDP per capita increased 0.8% (ABS)

• Australian household consumption rose 0.4% in the quarter, with ABS head of national accounts Grace Kim saying households continued to behave cautiously (ABS)

• US private-sector employment increased by 38,000 jobs in August, the slowest month since January and below the 47,000 consensus (ADP)

• ADP said base pay for job-stayers rose 3.0% year-on-year while base pay for job-changers increased 4.7% (ADP)

• Bhagwan Marine wins a two-year Riverside Guardian deployment from a global Tier 1 energy company, with options taking it to four years. Minimum value ~$5.8m, up to ~$11.6m if fully exercised — the first material revenue synergy from the Riverside Marine deal (BWN)

• Fenix Resources posts a maiden Beebyn Hub Ore Reserve of 26.9Mt at 60.0% Fe, split between an upgraded W11 (13.1Mt at 61.2%) and maiden W10 Stage 1 (13.8Mt at 58.9%). Gives five-plus years of mine life and underpins the plan for up to 6Mtpa by FY28 (FEX)

• Vulcan Energy PFS on Project Ludwig returns a post-tax NPV8 of €1.7bn and 20.2% IRR on €1.26bn capex, with capital intensity 15% below Lionheart. Base case 21,100tpa battery-grade lithium carbonate plus 3,125GWh a year of renewable heat (VUL)

• Wiluna Mining to file relisting documents next week for an ASX return at about $500m fully diluted, with Argonaut and Barrenjoey targeting $160-200m at 65-85c to repay creditors. Book-build expected this month despite processing being suspended a month ago (AFR)

• A bounce from oversold conditions: Brent finished flattish overnight after rallying 10.7% across the prior five sessions. Bond yields backed off multi-year highs, the S&P 500 VIX is back at 15 and the odds of a September Fed hike slipped to 62.3% from 67.2% a day earlier. Equities finally get a reprieve, but a one-day win proves very little against this wall of worries. With yields vertical, oil elevated and seasonality working against us, these bounces often fail abruptly and undercut recent lows. Ideally, yields and oil keep stabilising from dangerously high levels. But we'll just have to see where the dust settles.

• The return of Corporate Travel: CTD had its suspension lifted on Wednesday night after completing a massive audit and lodging its FY26 result. The stock hasn't traded since August 2025. I've pulled up an old Macquarie note (28-Nov-25) that forecast underlying EBITDA of $199.6m against the $113.6m reported, a 43% miss. So what happens today? Stocks returning from prolonged suspensions typically cop a massive purge at the open, then more panic selling from there. The question is how far it gaps and how aggressive those first few minutes are. Get your popcorn out.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 3 Sep: Acumentis Group (ACU) – $0.005, Amcor (AMC) – $0.92, Ashley Services Group (ASH) – $0.011, Beacon Lighting Group (BLX) – $0.034, BHP Group (BHP) – $1.392, Cash Converters International (CCV) – $0.01, Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV) – $0.05, Coles Group (COL) – $0.37, Euroz Hartleys Group (EZL) – $0.05, Fenix Resources (FEX) – $0.01, Finbar Group (FRI) – $0.03, GTN (GTN) – $0.052, Ironbark Balanced Income (IBC) – $0.006, Jumbo Interactive (JIN) – $0.15, Jupiter Mines (JMS) – $0.007, Korvest (KOV) – $0.40, Laserbond (LBL) – $0.008, Mayfield Group Holdings (MYG) – $0.024, Meridian Energy (MEZ) – $0.132, Nib Holdings (NHF) – $0.21, Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.28, Peter Warren Automotive Holdings (PWR) – $0.006, Qualitas (QAL) – $0.077, Ramsay Health Care (RHC) – $0.485, Resimac Group (RMC) – $0.06, Schaffer Corporation (SFC) – $0.45, Sigma Healthcare (SIG) – $0.02, Symal Group (SYL) – $0.049, Woodside Energy Group (WDS) – $0.795, Wotso (WOT) – $0.014

• Fri 4 Sep: Ampol (ALD) – $1.85, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.036, Big River Industries (BRI) – $0.02, Comms Group (CCG) – $0.001, Eagers Automotive (APE) – $0.25, Embark Early Education (EVO) – $0.015, Generation Development Group (GDG) – $0.01, Hitech Group Australia (HIT) – $0.04, Viva Energy Group (VEA) – $0.077, Whitefield Industrials (WHF) – $0.052

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Bravura Solutions (BVS)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:00 am: RBA Jones Speech

• 11:30 am: Balance of Trade

• 12:00 am: US ISM Services PMI