Morning Wrap: ASX 200 set to bounce, S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher despite Trump-Powell volatility

ASX 200 futures are up 53pts (+0.62%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished slightly higher despite some early session weakness

• Volatile headlines, including speculation Trump was going to fire Powell, cooler-than-expected US producer price data, tariff developments and mixed US earnings

• More miner quarterlies this morning, including updates from Genesis Minerals, Gold Road and 29Metals

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 recovered from early weakness to close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher, shrugged off early weakness to close near best levels

• S&P 500 recovered from a 0.68% dip in early trade, breadth was also relatively positive with the Equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming the official benchmark by 7 bps

• Lots of headline volatility, including speculation of Trump preparing to fire Powell, looming pharma and semis tariffs, more trade letters to be delivered to smaller trading partners, mixed takeaways from bank earnings and a cooler-than-expected US producer price print 

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sells another US$37m of stock (CNBC)

• Trump's call for Powell resignation fuels investor fears of inflation, market volatility (RT)

• Trump to sign an executive order to help make private-market investments more available to US retirement plans (RT)

• Japan's super-long bonds rebound after election spending concerns, traders await results (BBG)

• Central banks ramp up EU bond buying, boosting euro amid US concerns (RT)

STOCKS

• Meta reportedly scores two more AI researchers from OpenAI (TC)

• Tesla to launch longer, six-seat Model Y in China amid increased competition (BBG)

• Bank of America planning to roll out a stablecoin, Morgan Stanley says they're exploring (RT)

• ASML lowers growth forecast on trade worries, shares dive 11%, sees potential chip demand boost on US easing China export rules (BBG)

• Omnicom profit dips on acquisition costs, severance, revenue beats expectations amid ad growth (WSJ)

• Elliott Investment Management takes major stake in Global Payments, investor demands unclear (BBG)

• AstraZeneca drug fails to delay death, hospitalisations for severe plasma cell disorder patients (BBG)

• Renault shares slump after profit warning, investors react to lower margin forecast (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Trump denies reports he's close to firing Powell (AX)

• Trump floats Bessent for Fed chair though says not top candidate, suggests Powell should exit board in 2026 (BBG)

• Hassett and Warsh lead race for Fed chair, Trump seeks rate cuts, fueling independence concerns (BBG)

• JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon backs Powell in Fed fight, diverging from Trump (NYT)

• Dallas Fed's Logan suggests holding rates, open to cuts if inflation eases (BBG)

TARIFFS 

• Trump says he will send tariff letters to more than 150 countries, tariff rate possibly a little over 10%, said he was happy with simple trade deals (BBG)

• Canada announces new tariff measures on imported steel to protect domestic industry (RT)

• Trump will stick to 25% tariff on Japan, may have deal with India soon (YF)

• Trump eyes pharmaceutical and semiconductor tariffs, says pharma tariffs could start low to give industry chance to adapt but ultimately will be “very high” (BBG)

• Trump touts Indonesia trade deal with 19% tariff, Jakarta confirms call with US president (CNBC)

• US-Vietnam near trade deal Trump says, details potentially forthcoming on agreement (RT)

ECONOMY

• US June PPI was unchanged month-on-month vs. consensus for a 0.2% increase, annualised headline at 2.3% vs. 2.5% ests (BBG)

• China's economic growth forecasts raised by at least nine brokers, with GDP growth forecasts lifting from low 4% level to 4.5-5.0% (BBG)

• UK inflation unexpectedly spikes to 3.6% in June, highest level since January, driven by food prices (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• Australian deal-making had its best first-half since 2021 (AFR)

• Alcoa reports Q2 EPS of $0.39 vs. $0.32 ests, FY25 alumina production guidance reaffirmed at 9.5-9.7Mt (AAI)

• Car Group forecasts FY25 adjusted NPAT to be $376-380m vs. $365m consensus, CEO Cameron McIntyre to step down (CAR)

• Genesis Minerals reports Q4 gold production, full-year production of 214,311 oz vs. 190-210,000 guidance, costs towards top end of guidance (GMD)

• Gold Road reports Q2 gold production of 73koz vs. 81koz ests, FY25 gold production forecast to be at the lower end of 325-355koz range and costs towards the top end of A$2,400-2,600/oz range (GOR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Resource quarterlies: More copper/gold quarterlies flowing through today. At a glance, numbers from Genesis and Gold Road appear a little soft (soft production, higher costs). Will take a closer look in the Live Blog

• Market bounce: ASX 200 set to bounce after a sizeable pullback on Wednesday. This will bring the market back within an arms reach of record highs. The bounce follows a much-needed fall in bond yields, with the Australian 10-year yield down 5 bps overnight to 4.38%

• Uranium strength: This sector continues to chug along, with the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) up 2.0% overnight to a fresh 12-year high.

BROKER MOVES

• Breville Group upgraded to Buy with $35.50 target (UBS)

• Coles upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target remains $20.00 (JPM)

• IGO downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $4.00 from $4.40 (GS)

• Liontown Resources downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $0.48 from $0.63 (GS)

• Pilbara Minerals downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $1.10 from $1.75 (GS)

• Virgin Australia initiated Buy with $3.60 target (GS)

• Virgin Australia initiated Buy with $3.90 target (UBS)

• Woolworths upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target up to $31.00 from $30.50 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 17 Jul: WAM Global (WGB) – $0.04

• Fri 18 Jul: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Graincorp (GNC) 

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:50 am: Japan Balance of Trade (Jun)

• 11:30 am: Australia Unemployment (Jun)

• 4:00 pm: UK Unemployment (May)

• 10:30 pm: US Retail Sales (Jun)