ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 17th July
The S&P/ASX 200 is set to bounce after Wednesday's sharp pullback. Here are today's top stories.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, July 17. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up at 1:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.
11th record high of the year in sight
[12:32 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 now up 63 pts (+0.73%) and within 0.07% of its Tuesday, 15 July record high.
ASX 200 bounces back towards record levels
[11:52 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is trading 57 pts higher (+0.67%) and within 0.1% of all-time highs. Breadth is looking very strong, with 154 constituents (77%) trading flat or higher.
Top contributors to the gains include Commonwealth Bank (+1.1%), Westpac (+1.1%), NAB (+1.0%) and BHP (+0.7%).
S&P/ASX 200 sector breakdown (Source: Market Index)
Australian unemployment rate hits 4.3%
[11:48 am] Australia's unemployment rate unexpectedly hit 4.3% in June, up from 4.1% in the previous month. Jobs growth was also far below market expectations, with employment up by 2,000 people for the month vs. consensus of 20,000.
Tyro Payments V-shapes to 10-month high
[11:44 am] Tyro Payments has staged a vertical move to levels not seen since September 2024. Here's the context:
Tuesday, 15 July: Tyro shares finished the session 2.7% lower, recovering from a steep intraday selloff of 14%. This was driven by news that the RBA proposed a sweeping ban on card surcharges, covering all debit and credit transactions on the eftpos, Mastercard, and Visa networks, well beyond the government's initial debit-only scope.
Wednesday, 16 July: Several analysts reiterated Buy ratings with target prices around $1.35-1.60, including:
Canaccord Genuity maintained Buy, target unchanged at $1.65. Believes the selloff was overdone and sees regulatory change as a long-term positive for margins and merchant growth.
UBS maintained Buy, target unchanged at $1.35. Sees limited near-term impact but notes TYR is well placed to benefit from competitor disruption and greater fee transparency.
Jefferies maintained Buy, target unchanged at $1.40. Despite surprise reforms, TYR kept guidance and is expected to benefit from industry shakeout and clearer pricing in the medium term.
The stock is now up more than 25% from Tuesday's intraday low of 79 cents.
Tyro Payments daily chart (Source: TradingView)
Lithium stocks retreat
[11:20 am] Major lithium names like Pilbara Minerals and Liontown Resources are trading broadly lower after facing sharp target price downgrades from Goldman Sachs.
The bellwether Pilbara Minerals is down 10% in the last three sessions, but still trading 11% higher month-to-date.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
CXO | Core Lithium | -4.55% | $0.11 |
PLS | Pilbara Minerals | -3.88% | $1.49 |
LTR | Liontown Resources | -3.03% | $0.80 |
NVX | Novonix | -2.11% | $0.47 |
PMT | Patriot Battery Metals | -0.90% | $0.33 |
VUL | Vulcan Energy Resources | -0.28% | $3.54 |
PLL | Piedmont Lithium | 0.00% | $0.11 |
Small caps making moves
[11:00 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
EML | EML Payments | 6.67% | $1.15 |
3DA | Amaero Ltd | 4.60% | $0.46 |
RHI | Red Hill Minerals | 4.55% | $3.45 |
TYR | Tyro Payments | 4.17% | $1.00 |
SVL | Silver Mines | 3.57% | $0.15 |
NXL | Nuix | 3.52% | $2.35 |
AAR | Astral Resources | 3.33% | $0.16 |
LGL | Lynch Group | 3.09% | $1.84 |
SGLLV | Ricegrowers | 3.04% | $10.85 |
MGX | Mount Gibson Iron | 3.03% | $0.34 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
29M | 29Metals | -9.57% | $0.31 |
CXO | Core Lithium | -7.27% | $0.10 |
WC8 | Wildcat Resources | -5.71% | $0.17 |
EBR | Ebr Systems | -5.56% | $1.19 |
MTM | Mtm Critical Metals | -5.17% | $0.83 |
MEI | Meteoric Resources | -5.00% | $0.15 |
MLX | Metals X | -4.82% | $0.65 |
THL | Tourism Holdings Rentals | -4.69% | $1.83 |
SMI | Santana Minerals | -4.07% | $0.59 |
LIC | Lifestyle Communities | -3.78% | $4.58 |
Top gainers and losers in early trade
[10:37 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.
Ticker | Company | Change % | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
XYZ | Block | 4.23% | $105.49 |
AIA | Auckland International Airport | 3.39% | $7.01 |
BFL | Bsp Financial Group | 3.29% | $8.48 |
MND | Monadelphous Group | 2.82% | $18.61 |
HUB | Hub24 | 2.80% | $102.00 |
IFL | Insignia Financial Ltd | 2.34% | $3.94 |
BRG | Breville Group | 2.28% | $30.48 |
NEM | Newmont Corporation | 1.77% | $89.26 |
A2M | The A2 Milk Company | 1.77% | $7.47 |
CPU | Computershare | 1.70% | $40.68 |
Ticker | Company | Change % | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
DRO | Droneshield | -8.03% | $3.55 |
SNZ | Summerset Group | -6.70% | $10.31 |
PLS | Pilbara Minerals | -4.72% | $1.47 |
LTR | Liontown Resources | -3.03% | $0.80 |
IGO | IGO | -2.33% | $4.62 |
LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | -2.20% | $9.79 |
OCL | Objective Corporation | -1.92% | $17.85 |
CAR | Car Group | -1.71% | $36.80 |
CSC | Capstone Copper Corp | -1.38% | $8.58 |
GMD | Genesis Minerals | -1.23% | $4.01 |
Car Group dips, analysts positive in CEO change
[10:12 am] A volatile open for Car Group following the surprise announcement of CEO Cameron McIntyre’s departure alongside unaudited FY25 guidance. The stock fell as much as 5.4% in early trade but has since pared losses to be down just 2%.
"While Cam’s departure is somewhat of a surprise, he has been in the role for 9 years, and Will is a very capable replacement (and well-liked by investors). With FY25 guidance in line with consensus, we don’t expect the transition to be associated with any earnings issues – as a result, we’d expect a fairly neutral market reaction to this announcement," said E&P’s Entcho Raykovski.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Wei-Weng Chen added: "William is a natural fit for the role given his long tenure with the business (10 years, which spanned the transformative years of the TI/Webmotors acquisitions) and familiarity with the investor base."
Overall, the initial price action reflects a degree of uncertainty as the market digests both the executive change and FY25 outlook, though shares are now trending back toward breakeven.
Santos reports solid Q2 production
[9:55 am] Santos reported a solid June quarter production report and adjusted its FY25 guidance. The key numbers include:
Free cash flow approximately $1.1 billion in the first-half, with $620 million in the second quarter.
Increased production of 22.2 mmboe, up 1% compared with the prior quarter.
Sales volumes of 23.9 mmboe, up 3% compared with the prior quarter.
FY25 production guidance lowered to 90-95 mmboe vs. prior 90-97 mmboe (still in-line with Macquarie estimates of 92.5 mmboe)
FY25 sales and capex guidance unchanged
FY25 Unit production cost guidance narrowed to $7.00 to $7.40 per boe following strong first half performance.
On track to deliver structural savings of $150 million annually over the next ~18 months.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Car Group (CAR)
Car Group issues FY25 estimates, CEO to step down
[9:45 am] Car Group's Managing Director and CEO Cameron McIntyre is stepping down after 18 years with the Group, including more than nine years at the helm.
McIntyre will remain in the business for the next month to support CFO William Elliott's transition to CEO.
The company also pre-released its FY25 unaudited results, including (unclear if comparable to Citi ests as at Mar-25):
Proforma revenue of $1,142-1,146m vs. $1,148m ests
Proforma EBITDA of $638-642m vs. $636m ests
Adjusted NPAT of $376-380m vs. $376m ests
All the above metrics represent 11-12% year-on-year growth
"The estimated FY25 results reflect excellent revenue and earnings growth in all key markets, demonstrating the strength of CAR Group’s diversified portfolio of businesses ... CAR Group enters the new financial year with good momentum," the company said in a statement.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Car Group (CAR)
Integrated Research flags revenue delays
[9:32 am] Performance monitoring software company Integrated Research says it expects to deliver FY25 EBITDA of $15-17 million compared to $24.6 million a year ago (down 35% at the midpoint).
The company said FY25 was a transitional year with a softer renewals book compared to FY24, impacting statutory revenue. Key takeaways for the year include:
The Americas saw weaker performance due to the smaller renewals book, but key deals like a 5-year contract with JP Morgan Chase were secured.
Asia-Pacific outperformed expectations thanks to stronger new business wins, while Europe underperformed.
A new CEO was appointed in October 2024 to lead a pivot to a product-led growth strategy.
Early signs of positive momentum emerged from new product releases and business wins.
Some new business opportunities were delayed into FY26, especially in the Americas due to market uncertainty.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Integrated Research (IRI)
Gold Road reports soft production, higher costs
[9:28 am] Gold Road delivered a relatively soft quarterly result and FY25 guidance, as it works through its proposed scheme with Gold Fields, which remains subject to several conditions.
The key highlights for the June quarter include:
Gold production (100% basis) of 73koz vs. 81koz ests (9.9% miss)
Gold sales (50% basis) of 37.7koz vs. 42.0koz ests (10.2% miss)
AISC of A$2,928/oz vs. A$2,465/oz ests (18.8% miss)
As a result, FY25 production is now expected at the lower end of the 325–355koz guidance range, while AISC is anticipated to land near the top of the A$2,400–2,600/oz range. For context, Macquarie’s May-25 forecasts anticipated production of 327koz at an AISC of A$2,566/oz — suggesting that while the update is somewhat underwhelming, it remains broadly within expectations.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Gold Road (GOR)
Genesis Minerals beats production guidance
[9:15 am] Genesis Minerals reported a relatively positive quarterly and full-year (unaudited) numbers.
Q4 gold production of 61,469 oz vs. 60,300 oz consensus
Q4 AISC of A$2,499/oz vs. A$2,373/oz consensus
Unaudited NPAT for the quarter of $85-95m
For FY25, the company reported:
Gold production of 214,311 oz vs. 190-210,000 guidance
AISC of A$2,398/oz vs. A$2,200-2,400 guidance
Unaudited NPAT between $210-230m vs. Macquarie (Jun-25) ests of $223m
FY26 production and cost guidance will be provided in the September quarter
Overall, the report showed stronger-than-expected production, while costs landed at the upper end of guidance—resulting in unaudited NPAT in line with Macquarie’s forecasts.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Genesis Minerals (GMD)
Trump says pharma tariffs probable by August
[9:12 am] Trump plans to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, potentially starting 1 August.
Pharmaceutical tariffs will start low, then rise significantly (up to 200%) after a year to encourage onshore manufacturing.
Semiconductor tariffs are also expected soon, targeting chips and consumer electronics like Apple and Samsung products.
These tariffs could raise costs for companies like Eli Lilly, Merck, Pfizer, and US consumers.
Source: Bloomberg
Broker upgrades, downgrades and target price changes
[9:07 am] A few broker updates crossed the wires this morning. Goldman Sachs is calling the recent lithium rally a bluff, UBS has upgraded Breville on expectations it can double revenue over the next decade, and rising food inflation may be driving renewed optimism for the supermarket giants.
Breville Group upgraded to Buy with $35.50 target (UBS)
Coles upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target remains $20.00 (JPM)
IGO downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $4.00 from $4.40 (GS)
Liontown Resources downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $0.48 from $0.63 (GS)
Pilbara Minerals downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $1.10 from $1.75 (GS)
Virgin Australia initiated Buy with $3.60 target (GS)
Virgin Australia initiated Buy with $3.90 target (UBS)
Woolworths upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target up to $31.00 from $30.50 (JPM)
UK inflation accelerates, US producer prices cool
[9:02 am] A few mixed pieces of inflation data overnight, notably:
Shocker rise in UK inflation: June headline inflation of 3.6%, up from 3.4% in May and above consensus expectations of 3.4%, largely driven by higher food prices. Core inflation accelerated to 3.7% vs. 3.5% in the previous month.
US producer prices stagnate: Headline PPI was unchanged month-on-month vs. consensus for a 0.2% increase. Annualised headline at 2.3% vs. 2.5% estimates and the lowest since September 2024. The decline in wholesale inflation reflected a sharp decline in travel-related services, down 4.1% month-on-month.
ASML dives 8% despite earnings beat
[8:58 am] Shares in semiconductor manufacturing company ASML tumbled 8.3% as a cautious guidance offset better-than-expected numbers for the second quarter.
Revenue came in at the high end of ASML's own guidance range of €7.2-7.7 billion
The gross margin was 53.7%, above guidance, primarily driven by higher upgrade business and one-offs resulting in lower costs
Full-year 2025 guidance reaffirmed, with expected total net sales growth of around 15% with gross margin around 52%
Management expressed uncertainty as to whether or not the business will grow next year amid macroeconomic and geopolitical risks
Trump-Powell speculation fuels market volatility
[8:55 am] Speculation that Trump was close to firing Fed Chair Powell sparked a brief dip in US equities and the US dollar as well as a spike in gold and bond yields around 1:00 am AEST.
"While a Fed chief more friendly to cutting rates could be mixed for equities in the short term, it would translate into a weaker U.S. dollar, increased volatility in the Treasuries market and higher longer-term rates," noted Reuters.
S&P 500 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)
Good morning!
[8:35 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are currently up 53pts (+0.62%), suggesting a solid bounce after Wednesday's 0.79% dip.
Major US benchmarks finished broadly higher, despite early weakness. Another volatile overnight session with plenty of moving pieces spanning the Fed, tariffs and economic data.
If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.
