Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 wobbles + Gold, oil and uranium stocks soar

Major US benchmarks kicked off April on a weaker note, bond yields climb on stubborn US inflation data and a jump in manufacturing activity, gold prices hit another all-time high as the Fed-fuelled rally continues, oil prices settle at a 5-month high on tighter supply outlook, China's manufacturing data is at its most robust level in 13 months, uranium stocks soared overnight and Austal is the latest M&A receipt.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 performance over the last two trading sessions (Source: TradingView)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 to open relatively flat following a relatively quiet session on Wall Street

• Aussie Broadband expected to sell Superloop stock after court setback (AFR)

• Aussie Broadband loads up $50m block trade in Superloop (AFR)

• Austal to reject bid from South Korean ship builder Hanwha (The Australian)

• China removes punishing tariffs on Australian wine (AFR)

BROKER NOTES

• ALS downgraded to Hold from Add but target increased to $13.70 from $13.35 (Morgans)

• AMP upgraded to Buy from Hold and target increased to $1.32 from $1.15 (Jefferies)

• Beach Energy upgraded to Neutral from Sell and target increased to $1.90 from $1.67 (Goldman Sachs)

• Cettire downgraded to Hold from Buy and target cut to $4.50 from $4.80 (Bell Potter)

• Computershare upgraded to Buy from Hold and target increased to $29.65 from $28.50 (Jefferies)

• Fisher & Paykel upgraded to Neutral from Underweight and target increased to NZ$24 from NZ$20 (JPMorgan) 

• Netwealth downgraded to Underperform from Hold and target cut to $18.60 from $19.68 (Jefferies)

• Ramsay Healthcare downgraded to Underweight from Neutral and target cut to $50 from $57 (JPMorgan) 

MARKETS

• S&P 500 lower overnight but finished off worst levels

• S&P 500 posted its fifth gain in the last six quarters and a second consecutive quarter of double-digit quarterly percentage gains

• Bond yields higher – The US 10-year yield added 10 bps overnight to 4.31%

• Gold tagged another fresh all-time high of US$2,265 – It’s up 2.5% over the last three sessions

• Oil prices hit the highest level since Oct-23, up 3.1% over the last three sessions 

• JPMorgan warns about crowding in momentum factor (Bloomberg)

• VIX gauges highlight expectations of spiking volatility around US election (FT)

• Oil rises to highest since October on stronger demand, geopolitical tensions (Bloomberg)

• Iron ore hits a 10-month low amid worries about China's property industry (Bloomberg)

• Energy a big gainer in March as strength broadens beyond big tech (Yahoo Finance)

• Hedge funds' exposure to Europe near highest on record (Bloomberg)

• Traders increasingly betting on supply shortages in copper market (FT)

• Recent record-setting cocoa prices fundamentally driven by a supply crunch (Bloomberg)

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

• Microsoft to separate Teams and Office offerings in bid to avoid antitrust issues (Reuters)

• Microsoft and OpenAI plan for data center project that could cost as much as US$100bn (The Information)

• AI-startup Cognition Labs looking to raise funding at valuation of up to US$2bn, up from just US$350m earlier this year (link)

• Tesla raising US prices for its Model Y by US$1,000 (Reuters)

• Tesla's China price hikes coming against price cuts, incentives favouring domestic EV producers (Bloomberg)

• Citigroup to lay off 430 New York employees across units (Reuters)

• Trump Media & Technology drops sharply after reporting $58m loss for 2023 (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Powell says he still expects inflation to fall toward Fed's 2% target; reiterates central bank can be patient on rate cuts as it waits for more information (Bloomberg)

• ECB's Stournaras says four rate cuts this year is possible (Bloomberg)

• Fed Governor Waller leans hawkish, still doesn't see a rush to cut rates (Bloomberg)

• ECB's Panetta says conditions for policy loosening are nearing (Reuters)

• BoE's Haskel says rate cuts still a long way off because of underlying inflation (FT)

• RBNZ Governor Orr says conditions to cut rates getting closer (Reuters)

• BOK warns of hit to economic activity from weakening property market (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• US manufacturing sector grows for the first time in one-and-a-half years (Reuters)

• China manufacturing PMI surprises and expands for first time in six months in March while non-manufacturing PMI highest since September (CNBC)

• German retail sales drop unexpectedly in February (Reuters)

• German unemployment rises less than expected in March (Bloomberg)

• Fed’s preferred inflation metric – Core PCE – cools while spending rebounds (Bloomberg) 

Sectors to Watch: Digesting the Long Weekend

It's always a little awkward trying to digest a few missed sessions (the overnight Thursday session and most markets continued to trade on Monday). For example, if markets rallied on day one and then sold off the next (but overall a slight net positive) – Should we trade higher due to the net result or lower due to the downward momentum on day two?

The S&P 500 is down 0.10% over the last two sessions (last Thursday and overnight). Here are some of the more interesting sectors that moved over the past two days.

Oil: Crude prices settled 1.0% higher overnight on expectations of resilient demand from the US and China as well as tightening supplies on OPEC+ output cuts and attacks on Russian refineries. The US energy sector pushed through 2022 highs overnight to trade at levels not seen since September 2014. Most local energy names have lagged pretty hard – So lets see if names like Woodside (ASX: WDS), Beach Energy (ASX: BPT) and Karoon Energy (ASX: KAR) can catch up.

Gold: Gold is the gift that keeps on giving, up 2.5% in the last three sessions. The overnight session was a little choppy, with prices settling 0.75% higher (US$2,250) but down from session highs of 1.44% (US$2,265). A name like Newmont rose 1.65% overnight, down from session highs of 3.5%. Local gold miners should gap up strongly to reflect the gains of the underlying commodity – But it could be one of those gap up into sideways chop kind of sessions.

Real Estate: Real Estate was the worst performing S&P 500 sector overnight. The downward pressure was largely driven by higher bond yields, which could see some negative flow follow through for local REITs.

Uranium: The Global X Uranium ETF rallied 4.47% overnight to the highest level since 8-Feb. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on Cameco – the world's largest uranium company – with a Buy rating and 30% upside from current prices. "We believe shares provide investors with an attractive means to gain exposure to the entire nuclear fuel value chain in an environment where increased demand and higher prices should lead to meaningful consensus estimate revisions. We believe uranium prices are likely to average US$95/lb ... ~170% higher than historical averages," the analysts said. Let's see if this translates into a strong session for local uranium names like Paladin (ASX: PDN) and Boss Energy (ASX: BOE).

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Tuesday, 3 April: Ridley Corp (RIC) – $0.044 

• Wednesday, 4 April: Lindsay Australia (LAU) – $0.021, Clime Capital (CAM) – $0.014, Eureka Group (EGH) – $0.007, ARB Corp (ARB) – $0.34

• Thursday, 5 April: None

• Friday, 6 April: None

• Monday, 9 April: Brickworks (BKW) – $0.24

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Gold Road (GOR) – $0.01, Capitol Health (CAJ) – $0.005, Mercury NZ (MCY) – $0.08, Integral Diagnostics (IDX) – $0.025, HMC Capital (HMC) – $0.06, Freightways Group (FRW) – $0.16

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: RBA Meeting Minutes

• 11:00 pm: Germany Inflation Rate (Mar)

• 1:00 am: US JOLTs Job Openings (Feb)