Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 closed for Labor Day, Kospi surges as AI optimism returns

In a nutshell:

• US equity and bond markets were shut for Labor Day, leaving Europe and Asia to set the tone on thin conditions, with European benchmarks finishing mixed as energy led and healthcare lagged

  • Remember that time I missed that the US was shut and wrote the wrap as business as usual (pretty sure it was the 25 May, Memorial Day holiday). How embarrassing.

• OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release reignited the memory chip trade, driving big gains across Samsung, SK Hynix, SoftBank and Kioxia and lifting the Nikkei and Kospi

• Oil continued its grind higher, with Brent up 1.5% to US$97.30 a barrel after US and Iran traded strikes on shipping over the weekend, copper set a record on the LME and the yen broke below 155 as Bank of Japan hike bets firmed

Let's dive in.

• US equity and bond markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday, leaving Europe and Asia to set the tone on relatively thin trade, with the Stoxx 600 closing at breakeven 

• European benchmarks ended mixed, with France's CAC 40 up 0.33% and Italy's FTSE MIB up 0.25%, while Germany's DAX shed 0.2% and the FTSE 100 was little changed 

• Oil and gas was the standout sector in Europe, advancing 1.3% as crude edged higher, with technology up ~1.1%, healthcare down 0.9% and financial services down 0.9% 

• South Korea's Kospi surged 4.6% on heavy buying across semis and AI hardware names, with Samsung up 5.6% and SK Hynix up 8.2%

• Copper set an all-time high on the LME, with three-month futures reaching US$14,533 a tonne on tariff anticipation and tightening supply outside the US (BBG) 

• Bernstein warned rising US yields pose an underpriced risk to Asian equities, flagging record price-to-book multiples in Korea and Taiwan with Japan and Australia trading above their 2021 peaks (INV)

• JPMorgan says rising yields are unlikely to derail equities while earnings momentum holds, provided inflation expectations do not become de-anchored, though headwinds could turn more significant (INV)

• Bloomberg noted the global bond selloff is repricing the cost of money without triggering the usual scramble out of risk assets, with stocks and credit still powering ahead on earnings (BBG)

• Traders priced roughly a 58% chance of a Fed hike at the 15-16 September meeting after August payrolls came in at 162,000 against forecasts near 56,000 (CNBC)

• Jaguar Land Rover will cut about 4,000 roles, roughly 10% of its workforce, over two years to save £1.7bn as it battles US tariffs, cyberattack fallout and Chinese competition (BBG)

• Novo Nordisk said 40.4% of children aged six to under 12 taking semaglutide were no longer classified as obese after 68 weeks in its phase 3 STEP Young trial (BBG)

• SK Hynix jumped 8.2% after OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra launch revived AI memory demand hopes, with KB Securities flagging combined inventories below 10 days of supply (CNBC)

• LG Electronics jumped more than 8% after Hankyung reported it is exploring a pre-IPO raise of up to 400bn won for robotics unit Bear Robotics at about a 2trn won valuation (CNBC)

• Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang said GPT-6 Astra was trained on more than 100,000 Grace Blackwell NVLink72 systems and that a further 400,000 GPUs will be deployed (X)

• Iran will announce a new restricted zone in the Gulf within days plus maps of a new Hormuz shipping corridor, with vessels entering without coordination to be added to a sanctions list (RT)

• Saudi Aramco's Jizan facilities were struck again on Monday, with the 400,000 barrel a day Red Sea refinery hit roughly a month after a Houthi drone attack and damage still being assessed (RT)

• US Energy Secretary Wright said transits through the Strait of Hormuz are averaging over nine million barrels a day, putting flows at roughly two thirds or more of pre-conflict levels (RT)

• Iranian parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf warned Tehran's response to any attack on its interests would be faster, heavier and more painful, declaring the era of proportionate responses over (ABC)

• Copper's record run is being driven by anticipation Washington extends tariffs to refined metal, with a Section 232 process contemplating 15% duties from January 2027 rising to 30% in 2028 (BBG)

• China's August trade data, due Tuesday, is forecast to show exports accelerating and the surplus widening to US$119.05bn from US$112.5bn in July, with imports up 30% year-on-year (RT)

• ECB is expected to lift rates 25 bps to 2.5% this week, framed by Reuters as an insurance hike, with most economists polled expecting the tightening cycle to end there (RT)

• Money markets fully price the ECB move and assign near 100% odds of a 3% deposit rate by June 2027, implying two further increases by the middle of next year (TE)

• Markets have fully priced a 25 basis point Bank of Japan hike to 1.25% at the 17 to 18 September meeting, with traders also assigning scope for a follow-up move in December (FXS)

• Japan's foreign reserves fell a record US$79.6bn in August to US$1.208 trillion, after Tokyo spent 15.4 trillion yen on intervention between 30 July and 26 August (RT)

• The reserve drawdown was led by an US$87.8bn drop in foreign securities, believed to be largely US Treasuries, which account for roughly 70% of Japan's total reserve assets (INV)

• Fed hike odds sat near 58% for the 15 to 16 September meeting, with this week's producer and consumer price prints seen as the decisive inputs for the decision (CNBC)

• Eurozone Q2 GDP revised up to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter from 0.4%, the strongest pace in more than a year, after the bloc stagnated in the first three months of 2026 (BBG) 

• German industrial production fell 1.1% month-on-month in July vs ests of a 0.1% rise, dragged by a 9.2% slump in automotive output tied to a multi-week production shutdown (RT)

• Eurozone investor morale jumped to 5.1 in September from 0.9 in August, well above the 2.0 forecast and the highest since February 2022, marking a fifth straight monthly gain (RT)

• China's central bank added 650,000 ounces of gold in August, its largest monthly purchase since 2023, extending the buying streak to 22 months with holdings now at 76.7Moz (BBG)

• US fuel prices hit a record Labor Day high, with AAA putting regular petrol at US$4.14 a gallon against the previous holiday record of US$3.82 set back in 2012 (AP)

• Caspin Resources flags a new high-grade tin-tungsten target at Taylors Hill in the Bygoo Project, where historical drilling returned 3.0m at 3.69% WO3 and 0.39% Sn from 44.2m within an 800m tungsten soil anomaly (CPN)

• Chalice Mining intersects broad low-grade copper-silver-gold over ~1.2km of strike in first-pass RC drilling at Deep Blue, still open, and expands tenure to cover a newly recognised ~30km belt now called the Goomalling Copper Project (CHN)

• Elevra Lithium guides FY27 spodumene production of 198-210kt dmt and sales of 200-230kt dmt, versus FY26 actuals of 198kt and 181kt. Unit costs lift to US$880-950/dmt from US$853 and capex jumps to US$120-140m from US$24m for the NAL expansion (ELV)

• Red Hill Minerals declares a 10.8cps fully franked final dividend for 22.4cps across FY26, after Onslow Iron at nameplate drove $28.8m royalty income. NPAT $20.1m, EPS 31.27cps, net cash $62.77m (RHI)

• Sun Silver hits 16.8m at 20g/t AgEq from surface at Maverick, outside the current resource, plus 80m at 59g/t AgEq from 166.1m including 9.2m at 214g/t AgEq within the 539Moz AgEq MRE (SS1)

• A quiet one: A thin European session with Wall Street closed for Labor Day, so there is not much data or fresh news to work with this morning, though the narrative is very much the same as recent days. Brent is still trending higher, up 1.5% overnight to US$97.30 a barrel, while US diesel futures rose 2.8% to close fractionally below the 1 September record and are now up 118% year to date. The Aussie 10-year added 2 basis points to 5.21% yesterday, its highest since July 2011. Amid this wall of worries, a few green shoots are keeping the bears at bay, including extraordinary S&P 500 earnings growth in Q2 (52%, or about 34% excluding the non-operating gains at Alphabet and Amazon from their SpaceX and Anthropic stakes), China's best earnings season in five years (Q2 earnings up 25.7%) and buoyant commodity prices, with copper closing at a record on the LME. Still, a rough and dicey patch for markets.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 8 Sep: AUB Group (AUB) – $0.71, Bluescope Steel (BSL) – $1.35, Channel Infrastructure NZ (CHI) – $0.051, Dusk Group (DSK) – $0.016, Mineral Resources (MIN) – $0.83, Motorcycle Holdings (MTO) – $0.07, News Corporation (NWS) – $0.099, Peet (PPC) – $0.065, Pepper Money (PPM) – $0.072, Perpetual Equity Investment Company (PIC) – $0.04, Regis Healthcare (REG) – $0.094, Saferoads Holdings (SRH) – $0.005, Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ) – $0.215

• Wed 9 Sep: Bhagwan Marine (BWN) – $0.003, Brambles (BXB) – $0.328, CSL (CSL) – $2.277, Evolution Mining (EVN) – $0.21, EVT (EVT) – $0.23, Genesis Minerals (GMD) – $0.05, Hearts and Minds Investments (HM1) – $0.1, IDP Education (IEL) – $0.06, IGO (IGO) – $0.05, IVE Group (IGL) – $0.09, LGI (LGI) – $0.014, Netwealth Group (NWL) – $0.21, Northern Star (NST) – $0.3, Summerset Group Holdings (SNZ) – $0.027 

• Thu 10 Sep: AMA Group (AMA) – $0.005, Breville Group (BRG) – $0.19, CTI Logistics (CLX) – $0.08, Freightways Group (FRW) – $0.199, Globe International (GLB) – $0.13, Infragreen Group (IFN) – $0.005, Kogan (KGN) – $0.08, McMillan Shakespeare (MMS) – $0.7, Naos Ex-50 Opportunities Company (NAC) – $0.016, Naos Small Cap Opportunities (NSC) – $0.013, Nine Entertainment (NEC) – $0.03, NZME (NZM) – $0.025, Perpetual (PPT) – $0.63, Regis Resources (RRL) – $0.2, Sandfire Resources (SFR) – $0.35, SGH (SGH) – $0.32, Sky Network Television (SKT) – $0.141, Spark New Zealand (SPK) – $0.061, Thorney Opportunities (TOP) – $0.017, Venus Metals Corporation (VMC) – $0.17, XRF Scientific (XRF) – $0.045

• Fri 11 Sep: Ariadne Australia (ARA) – $0.005, CAR Group (CAR) – $0.435, Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) – $0.035, Joyce Corporation (JYC) – $0.17, PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund (PGF) – $0.075, WiseTech Global (WTC) – $0.123

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Bell Financial Group (BFG)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 10:30 am: Australia Consumer Confidence

• 11:30 am: Australia Business Confidence

• 1:00 pm: China Balance of Trade