Kogan: sales lift but profits halve with covid to blame
Revenue and customers topped FY21 figures, though profit figures fell off a cliff.

Mentioned
KEY POINTS
- Kogan shares are now trading -15% below pre-covid levels
- Solid top-line growth failed to trickle down into profits
- Logistics costs, elevated inventory and marketing spend eroded margins
Kogan (ASX: KGN) tried to hide a sharp decline in earnings, with just five words in today's business update saying “Adjusted EBITDA was $21.7 million”.
Sifting back to its first half FY21 results, the company delivered $51.7m in adjusted EBTIDA.
Why not just tell us that earnings declined -58%?
In a business update titled “Gross Sales and Revenue exceeded FY21’s record first half”, Kogan pushed the view that its top-line was growing strongly, with customers growing 10% year-on-year to $4m and sales growing 9% to $698m.
The encouraging top-line figures failed to trickle down to the bottom line, with gross profit down 4.4% to $112.4m.
Continuing supply chain interruptions, increased logistics costs and higher marketing expenses weighed on profitability.
This has been a recurring narrative, with the latest business updates from Adairs (ASX: ADH) and Redbubble (ASX: RBL) flagging the same challenges.
Another update, another dip
Kogan shares have a strong track record of falling off a cliff after a business update (% on day of announcement).
25 November: Annual General Meeting (-4.3%)
20 October: Business Update (+6.7%)
24 August: FY21 results (-15.5%)
21 July: Business Update (-1.5%)
21 May: Business Update (-14.6%)
23 April: Business Update (-14.3%)
26 February: 1H21 results (-10.4%)
29 January: Business update (-8.5%)
Kogan price chart with events
Kogan shares plunged -17.5% this morning, trading -4.5% lower at noon.
What brokers think
Two major Australian brokers cover Kogan, though the price targets date back to October 2021.
The consensus is a Buy rating with a $11.94 price target (93.5%) upside.
Much of the broker's assumptions have failed to fall through in today's trading update.
UBS' note from November expected gross margins to trend upwards.

