Consumer Discretionary

Everything you need to know about the Tabcorp and Lottery Corp demerger

Tue 24 May 22, 3:00pm (AEST)
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Key Points

  • Tabcorp trades at an undemanding valuation relative to its $4bn takeover offer just 12 months ago
  • Tabcorp will earn an extra 5 months of Lottery Corp earnings, paid out as a dividend
  • Lottery Corp is poised to be a tech-savvy, growth-oriented stock

A new Tabcorp (ASX: TAH) was born on Tuesday after demerging its lottery and Keno businesses into The Lottery Corporation (ASX: TLC).

Demerger at a glance

  • Tabcorp shareholders will receive 1 Lottery Corp share for every Tabcorp share held

  • Under the 1-to-1 logic, Lottery Corp shares should be priced at however much Tabcorp declined

  • Tabcorp was trading around $1.00 (down -81% or -$4.34) when Lottery Corp listed

  • The fair value of Lottery Corp should theoretically be $4.34

There are a few factors that have bolstered the valuations of both stocks, which will be explained below.

Our previous coverage of the Tabcorp and Lottery Corp demerger, which takes a more fundamental perspective can be viewed here.

$4bn Apollo bid

Last May, Tabcorp received an unsolicited takeover offer from Apollo Management for its Wagering & Media business and Gaming Services business for a combined value of $4.0bn.

Shortly after, Tabcorp also received an indicative takeover from BetMakers (ASX: BET), valued at $4bn ($1bn cash and $3bn script). 

Post demerger, Tabcorp’s market cap has fallen from c.$11bn to around $2.2bn.

While Apollo’s takeover bid was 12 months ago, the company’s present value does seem rather undemanding in comparison.

Extra dividends

Tabcorp said that to assist in providing a tax efficient distribution, “it is anticipated that New Tabcorp will pay a FY22 final dividend with reference to the 5 months of TLC earnings prior to the Demerger in addition to the 2H22 earnings of New Tabcorp”.

Having an extra 5 months worth of Lottery Corp earnings within Tabcorp's final dividend will be an extra kicker for shareholders.

Growth oriented Lottery Corp

The Lottery Corp is poised to be the more growth oriented stock, focused on product innovation and deepening engagement across all channels and digital expansion.

Growth strategies include:

  • Increase digital penetration

  • Diversify retail channel mix

  • Explore opportunities to enhance existing licences

  • Evaluation potential future new licence opportunities (both domestically and internationally)

 

Written By

Kerry Sun

Finance Writer & Social Media

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University and was Vice President of the University Network for Investing and Trading (UNIT). He is an avid swing trader, and drawn to breakouts and technical set ups. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a huge UFC fan, loves poker and bouldering.

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