Evening Wrap: ASX 200 closes flat on first day of new FY, giving up early gains. Utilities and REITS outperform

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 1 point lower, down 0.01%.

In a nutshell:

• The market faded from a positive start, unable to hold onto early gains

• Investors lacked a catalyst and conviction, awaiting US trade developments

• Retail stocks - both staples and dicretionary - caught a bid

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 closed 1 point lower (Source: Market Index)

Markets

• ASX 200 finished down 1 point at 8541, off a sesion high of 8592

• The price action today saw local traders run with a bullish lead from Wall Street off the open

• Momentum couldn't be maintained amid a lack of catalysts

• There was no clear themes at a sector level, with best peformers a mix of defensive and growth stocks

• Gold stocks shone, with the ASX All Ords Gold (sub industry) adding 1.1%

Economy

• China’s Caixin General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed to 50.4 in June 2025, up from 48.3 in May—the sharpest decline since September 2022—and surpassing market expectations of 49. The improvement was underpinned by the strongest rise in output since last November, supported by a renewed pickup in new orders as trade conditions improved and marketing efforts gained traction.

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +12.33% Amaero (3DA) – No news

• +11.84% Droneshield (DRO) – No news

• +10.57% Mesoblast (MSB) – FDA progress on one of its treatments

• +9.26% IDP Education (IEL) – optimism around growth story

Trading lower

• -16.96% HMC Capital (HMC) – Energy transition head stepping down, delay to acquisition

• -6.97% Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE) – No news

• -5.35% Elsight (ELS) – No news

• -2.90% SGH Limited (SGH) – CEO Vik Bansal to step down from Boral

Broker notes

Life360 Inc (360)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $40.00

AIC Mines (A1M)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.50 from $0.62

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $70.00

AusGold (AUC)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.65 from $1.60

Antipa Minerals (AZY)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.04

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.86 from $0.66

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

• Retained at Underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.25

Brickworks (BKW)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $31.70 from $32.20

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $34.90

Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

• Downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $6.70 from $6.20

• Retained at Underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.75

Brightstar Resources (BTR)

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.14

BWP Trust (BWP)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.40

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $18.50

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $22.60

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.10 from $5.75

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.10 from $9.03

Cochlear (COH)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $325.00 from $285.00

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $0.19

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV)

• Initiated at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $22.60

Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.00 from $7.30

Data3 (DTL)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.90

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.80

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.84

Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS)

• Retained at Accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.30

Generation Development Group (GDG)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.65

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $36.00

IVE Group (IGL)

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.40

Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.75

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $188.00

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.50

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $35.00 from $42.95

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Upgraded to Overweight from Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.57 from $4.50

Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings (NEC)

• Retained at Neutral at E&P; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.75

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Retained at Underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.60 from $5.55

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.75 from $6.65

Orica (ORI)

• Initiated at Positive at E&P; Price Target: $21.60

Pointsbet Holdings (PBH)

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.20

Perenti (PRN)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.80 from $1.45

QPM Energy (QPM)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.09 from $0.10

• Retained at Speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.14 from $0.13

Reece (REH)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $15.98 from $20.25

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $119.50 from $119.00

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.90

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.82

Superloop (SLC)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.55 from $3.35

• Retained at Overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $3.00 from $2.60

• Retained at Overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $3.30 from $2.50

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.25

• Retained at Overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $3.44 from $2.85

Santos (STO)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.85

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $22.40

• Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.75 from $1.80

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.40

• Retained at Sell at UBS; Price Target: $2.38

WA1 Resources (WA1)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $25.70 from $28.00

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $28.00

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $36.00

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $127.40 from $115.00

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $140.00