ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 1st July
The S&P/ASX 200 is set to chop around recent highs on Tuesday, despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording fresh all-time highs overnight.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, July 1. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 flat
[4:15 pm] Signing off – The S&P/ASX 200 closed up 6 pts (+0.07%), despite trading 0.39% higher in the first hour of trade.
The market continues to exhibit choppy price action, with several recent sessions have seen the index either fade strong starts or bounce from session lows—an intriguing holding pattern where the market refuses to break decisively in either direction. This sideways action is understandable given valuations are at record levels, yet there's little reason for prices to fall amid looming rate cuts, buoyant liquidity, easing inflation, and trade deals.
Despite the flat performance, market breadth was relatively positive with 115 S&P/ASX 200 constituents (58%) closing higher, though only five of the 11 sectors finished in the green.
While the broader market continues to chop, several growth and risk-oriented names caught a bid, including Droneshield (+12.2%), Zip (+4.5%), and Life360 (+4.3%).
HMC Capital hits 19-month low
[3:10 pm] Completely missed this announcement this morning – HMC Capital issued an energy transition update, which flagged:
Neoen VIC Portfolio acquisition set to be delayed by one month to 1 August.
Bulgana Wind Farm suffered a fire incident, impacting one of 56 wind turbines. After a detailed operational and safety review, 49 of 57 wind turbines are now operating, with all apart from the fire impacted turbine to be operational in the coming weeks.
HMC announced its acquisition of the Neoen Victoria portfolio for $950 million in November 2024. The 652MW operating asset portfolio includes the Bulgana Green Power Hub (224MW).
HMC shares are down 14.9% to levels not seen since November 2023.
Bond traders bet on US rate cuts
[2:18 pm] The benchmark risk-free rate the US 10-year government bond yield is continuing to ease this week as investors bet on rate cuts ahead.
On Tuesday it was 4.21%, versus 4.3% this time last week.
Australian government bond yields are also falling as traders lift bets on more rate cuts from the Reserve Bank this year.
The yield on 1-year government Australian bonds is now 3.33% more than 50 basis points beneath the overnight cash rate of 3.85%.
By Tom Richardson.
Citi neutral on Mineral Resources
[1:48 pm] Broker Citi is neutral on crestfallen retail investor favourite Citi, after it updated forecasts for iron ore production and interest rates.
The broker expects the lithium and iron ore miner to post an earnings per share (EPS) loss of 99 cents in FY 2025, before swinging to an EPS profit of 33 cents in FY 2026.
Citi values the stock at $20. Shares traded down 2.5% to $21.05 on Tuesday.
By Tom Richardson.
Dwelling prices lift 0.6% in May: NAB
[13:36 pm] Home loan lender National Australia Bank reports national dwelling prices climbed 0.6% in May, after a 0.5% rise in April.
"Price growth had slowed into April (ahead of the 3 May election), but with the election firmly in the rear vision mirror and further RBA cash rate cuts on the horizon, price growth has picked up," NAB said.
"On a three-month annualised basis dwelling price growth is running at a 5.8% y/y pace, well up on the -1.3% pace seen back in January. Looking forward, housing sentiment is likely to sustain on the back of further RBA rate cuts."
By Tom Richardson.
Robinhood shares jump 12.8% on tokenisation push
[1:23 pm] Shares in budget broking pioneer and retail investing favourite Robinhood surged to a record high overnight as it announced a deeper push into asset tokenisation.
Robinhood will let individual European share traders get exposure to US around 200 popular US stocks by tokenising them on a blockchain.
This has a lot of potential implications for investors and markets I will cover in more detail elsewhere.
By Tom Richardson.
China's manufacturing PMI rebounds
[12:15 pm] China's Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in June, up from 48.3 in May and above market expectations of 49. The manufacturing print briefly fell into contraction (below 50) in May amid escalating trade tensions.
Gold stocks broadly higher
[11:32 am] Gold stocks are trading broadly higher after prices gained 0.91% overnight and currently up 0.45% on Tuesday.
Prices are up 1.36% week-to-date to US$3,317 an ounce.
Despite the recent bounce, most gold stocks remain 10-15% below their mid-June highs, likely reflecting the sharp pullback in geopolitical risk premium as Iran-Israel tensions eased.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
EMR | Emerald Resources | 5.48% | $4.14 |
RRL | Regis Resources | 3.08% | $4.53 |
PRU | Perseus Mining | 2.94% | $3.50 |
WAF | West African Resources | 2.86% | $2.34 |
WGX | Westgold Resources | 1.74% | $2.92 |
NEM | Newmont Corporation | 1.65% | $88.75 |
CMM | Capricorn Metals | 1.20% | $9.67 |
VAU | Vault Minerals | 1.19% | $0.43 |
GMD | Genesis Minerals | 1.16% | $4.35 |
SPR | Spartan Resources | 1.01% | $2.01 |
NST | Northern Star Resources | 0.89% | $18.72 |
GOR | Gold Road Resources | 0.61% | $3.29 |
EVN | Evolution Mining | 0.45% | $7.83 |
RMS | Ramelius Resources | -0.20% | $2.52 |
Insignia rallies 6% as bid back on the cards
[11:30 am] Insignia shares rallied as much as 11% in early trade and are currently up 6% after the company announced that CC Capital is actively working towards a binding bid. The process, which includes finalising financing and investment committee approvals, is expected to be completed within the next two weeks.
The share price volatility is likely driven by the uncertainty of the new offer price. The previous offer was $5.00 (7-Mar-25).
Small caps making moves
[11:00 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers in early trade.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
BRN | Brainchip Holdings | 10.26% | $0.22 |
OCC | Orthocell | 7.66% | $1.27 |
3DA | Amaero Ltd | 6.85% | $0.39 |
APX | Appen | 5.98% | $1.19 |
PMT | Patriot Battery Metals | 5.66% | $0.28 |
AUC | Ausgold | 5.47% | $0.68 |
BC8 | Black Cat Syndicate | 4.52% | $0.81 |
IPG | Ipd Group Ltd | 4.36% | $3.11 |
UOS | United Overseas Australia | 4.31% | $0.61 |
DTR | Dateline Resources | 4.26% | $0.10 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
SGLLV | Ricegrowers | -5.65% | $10.52 |
MPW | Metal Powder Works | -5.62% | $1.68 |
BRE | Brazilian Rare Earths | -5.33% | $2.31 |
29M | 29Metals | -5.08% | $0.28 |
BTL | Beetaloo Energy Australia | -4.76% | $0.20 |
ELS | Elsight | -4.39% | $1.70 |
AVH | Avita Medical Inc. | -4.37% | $1.64 |
AEF | Australian Ethical Investment | -3.29% | $6.18 |
FCL | Fineos Corporation | -3.22% | $2.26 |
PPS | Praemium | -3.13% | $0.62 |
Top gainers and losers in early trade
[10:30 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
IFL | Insignia Financial | 8.95% | $3.96 |
DRO | Droneshield | 6.14% | $2.42 |
MPL | Medibank Private | 4.55% | $5.28 |
EMR | Emerald Resources | 4.21% | $4.09 |
360 | Life360 | 3.71% | $33.38 |
MSB | Mesoblast | 3.32% | $1.71 |
ADT | Adriatic Metals | 2.64% | $5.83 |
XRO | Xero | 2.51% | $184.32 |
ANN | Ansell | 2.44% | $31.03 |
SCG | Scentre Group | 2.25% | $3.64 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
HMC | HMC Capital | -8.04% | $4.69 |
SGH | SGH | -3.07% | $52.41 |
VGN | Virgin Australia | -1.94% | $3.03 |
JHX | James Hardie Industries | -1.85% | $40.93 |
ZIM | Zimplats Holdings | -1.61% | $15.25 |
GGP | Greatland Resources | -1.55% | $7.00 |
ASB | Austal | -1.35% | $6.20 |
TUA | Tuas | -1.34% | $5.87 |
CBA | Commonwealth Bank | -1.32% | $182.32 |
PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | -1.31% | $20.27 |
ASX 200 opens higher
[10:15 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is up 0.34% in early trade and within 0.3% of its record close on 11 June.
All sectors are trading higher except for Materials (-0.06%).
Staples are leading the charge, with Woolworths (+1.0%) and Coles (+1.5%) both ticking higher
Tech stocks are broadly higher, with Xero up 2.1% following its recent capital raise (~9.6% discount)
Next Science to sell a majority of its assets
[9:39 am] Next Science signed a binding asset purchase agreement with Demetra Holdings to sell substantially all assets of Next Science and its subsidiaries for US$50 million.
The company said after the repayment of debt, transaction costs, potential tax liabilities and winding down costs, the estimated proceeds from the transaction should be approximately US$30 million (A$45.6m). The company intends to distribute these proceeds have to shareholders.
The stock is down 42% year-to-date and 70% in the past twelve months after failing several hurdles to progress its products used to treat wounds and inflammation.
It's worth noting that Next Science has a market cap of $19.5 million, meaning the indicative cash proceeds are approximately 133% higher than the company's current valuation.
Post-transaction, Next Science will evaluate options as a going concern after returning net proceeds to shareholders.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Next Science (NXS)
Acusensus wins New Zealand contract
[9:30 am] Acusensus has signed a deal with the New Zealand Transport Agency of Waka Kotahi for mobile safety camera systems for the detection of speed offences across the NZ road network.
The price payable for the speed enforcement program is estimated to be up to N$92 million over an initial five-year term, with services set to commence on 1 July 2025.
The deal was first noted in December 2024, where it remained subject to final terms. During this time, the stock rallied as much as 41% between 3-12 December.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Acusensus (ACE)
Insurance Australia lifts FY25 guidance
[9:15 am] IAG provided a trading update ahead of its FY25 results on 13 August.
FY25 insurance profit increased to $1.6-1.8bn from previous guidance of $1.4-1.6bn
Insurance margin guidance up to 'towards the top end of the 15.5% to 17.5% range', from previous 'towards the top end of the 13.5% to 15.5% range'
FY25 GWP growth expected to be between 4% and 4.5%
While IAG has upgraded several key metrics, its worth noting that most analysts have already modelled for this outcome.
Morgan Stanley (as at 26-Jun) forecasted FY25 insurance profit of $1.79 billion, with insurance margins of 17.8% and GWP growth of 5.0%.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Insurance Australia (IAG)
CC Capital working towards deal with Insignia
[9:08 am] Insignia says CC Capital is actively working towards making a binding bid for the company, and finalising financing and investment committee approvals. This process is expected to be completed in the "next two weeks".
On 7 March 2025, both CC Capital and Bain revised its non-binding offer to $5.00, up 8.7% from its previous $4.60 offer.
But Bain was unable to make a binding offer due to macro uncertainty, driving Insignia shares 15.7% lower to $3.37 on 14 May.
The stock is currently trading at $3.37 as CC Capital could come back with a revised and lower offer.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Insignia Financial (IFL)
Computershare completes $750m on-market buyback
[9:02 am] Computershare completed a $750 million on-market buyback (was over 60% complete as of Nov-24).
The company said any shares purchased under a further buyback program would likely incur a franking debit tax of 30%, therefore an inefficient way of rewarding shareholders.
Moving forward, largely unfranked dividends will likely be the preferred method of rewarding shareholders.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Computershare (CPU)
Citi cuts near-term gold price target
[8:59 am] Citi downgraded its gold price target for 0-3 months reduced from US$3,500 to US$3,300. The key reasons include:
Gold market deficit expected to peak in the third quarter of 2025, followed by a fundamental weakening due to declining investment demand starting in 4Q25.
Gold prices expected to be rangebound between US$3,100-3,500 in the third quarter, with a potential peak already reached at US$3,500 in April.
Anticipated passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and new trade deals with key partners expected to boost US growth confidence, reducing gold demand.
Gold prices projected to fall to US$2,500-$2,700/oz by second half of 2026
Suncorp completes FY26 reinsurance program
[8:57 am] Suncorp completed its FY26 reinsurance program, benefiting from increased capacity in the reinsurance market, stabilising a major input cost for insurance.
The announcement was marked as non-market sensitive, with only a handful of subtle changes:
Maximum event retention set at $350 million for first and second large events, consistent with FY25.
Main catastrophe program covers Home, Motor, and Commercial property portfolios in Australia and New Zealand, protecting losses from $500 million to $6.3 billion (down from $6.75 billion in FY25), with one full prepaid reinstatement.
FY26 reinsurance program costs are lower than FY25 due to strong rate reductions and program adjustments, despite portfolio exposure growth.
No material impact on risk retention or capital targets; Suncorp plans to return excess capital to shareholders, with an update at the August full-year results.
Seeks to maintain underlying insurance margin of 10-12%
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Suncorp (SUN)
CoStar's scheme to acquire Domain is 'fair and reasonable'
[8:48 am] Independent expert concludes assessment of Domain and says the company is worth $4.06 to $4.46 on a fully diluted basis vs. CoStar's takeover price of $4.43 per share.
The Independent expert concludes that the offer is fair and reasonable, and in the best interests of Domain shareholders.
Nine Entertainment (owns 60.05% of Domain) confirmed its plans to vote all of the Domain shares it holds in favour of the Scheme.
The scheme meeting is set to take place at 10:00 am on 4 August.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Domain (DHG)
What's driving stocks?
[8:42 am] The S&P 500 logged a second consecutive all-time high as its full-steam ahead for US stocks, largely driven by positive trade talks.
Investors aggressively bought call options last week, including a rush into Nvidia (calls are now tripling puts, the largest gap since January), and a spike in the call-put ratio for Financials, according to Bloomberg
Canada withdrew a digital-services tax that led Trump to pause negotiations
EU ready to accept a trade deal with the US, which includes a 10% universal tariff on many of its key exports
Ongoing talks with India and South Korea face delays
Trump said he doesn't think he'll extend trade talk deadline beyond 9 July
Good morning!
[8:30 am] Welcome to the first day of FY26! S&P/ASX 200 futures are down 6pts (-0.07%) despite a strong lead from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both logged fresh all-time highs.
If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.
