"Best greenfield gold mine in a decade" debuted on the ASX last week

Greatland Gold (ASX: GGP) made its ASX debut last Monday after successfully raising $50 million at $6.60 per share and finished the session 10.6% higher at $7.30.

The IPO received backing major shareholders including Newmont (9.95%), Wyloo (8.24%), and several institutional investors. It's also been on the London Stock Exchange since 2006, with a market cap of approximately A$3.2 billion.

While it isn't exactly a household name for Australian investors, the name of its projects – Havieron and Telfer – should ring a bell.

Over the past couple of years, Greatland has rapidly transformed from a junior explorer into a significant gold-copper producer in WA. This has largely been driven by the acquisition of two key assets from Newmont (formerly owned by Newcrest).

Telfer is an operating gold-copper mine having produced over 15 million ounces of gold since 1977. Greatland acquired 100% of the project from Newmont in December 2024.

The Havieron deposit was discovered by Greatland in 2018 and between 2019-2023, it was advanced under a farm-in agreement with Newcrest. Under the agreement, Newcrest was entitled to earn up to a 70% interest subject to exploration funding thresholds. In December 2024, Greatland bought back the 70% from Newcrest-parent Newmont, achieving full ownership.

"The superior exchange for price discovery"

The strong debut performance reflects growing Australian institutional interest in the company, according to Macquarie analysts who initiated coverage with an "Outperform" rating and $7.80 price target.

The analysts noted that momentum could continue to build through broader Australia-based brokerage coverage and potential inclusion in major market indices like the S&P/ASX 200.

They also believe the ASX is the 'superior exchange for price discovery', meaning the local sharemarket is better able to value the company's achievements and assets, relative to the UK market.

The $64 million placement ($50m on the ASX and $14m UK retail offer) represents just 1% of the current market capitalisation, resulting in minimal dilution for existing shareholders.

Greatland's valuation appeal stems partly from expansion potential at its Havieron project, which is not yet fully reflected in current forecasts. The company expects to release a feasibility study in the fourth quarter of 2025 that will include scenarios for expanding Havieron operations to 4.5 million tonnes per annum.

Source; Macquarie Research, June 2025

Strong Cash Generation from Day One

Citi analysts initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and $8.00 target price, highlighting the company's transformation from explorer to producer.

The acquisition of Telfer from Newmont in December 2024 has immediately positioned Greatland as a cash-generating operation. The mine delivered over $250 million in free cash flow in the March quarter alone, providing the company with a solid financial foundation as it develops its next-generation Havieron project.

Telfer, which has produced more than 15 million ounces of gold since 1977, continues to operate both open-pit and underground mines. The operation is expected to generate steady cash flows through FY28, with production coming from multiple sources including the Main Dome underground operation and West Dome open pit.

The real prize for Greatland is the Havieron deposit, located 45 kilometers east of Telfer. At grades of 3g/t gold and 0.44% copper, Havieron ranks among Australia's highest-grade undeveloped projects. Citi expects the project to produce 220,000-310,000 ounces of gold per annum at industry-leading costs below US$1,000 per ounce.

"Some of the best drill hits this decade," is how Citi described recent results from the West Dome Underground area, with intercepts including 14 meters at over 9 g/t gold and 8.6% copper. These results confirm the deposit's exceptional grade and scale potential.

Ambitious Expansion Plans

Greatland plans to start with a 2.8 million tonne per year operation at Havieron, potentially expanding to 4 million tonnes annually by 2032. The larger operation would require total capital investment of approximately $1.4 billion, but Citi estimates the company can fund over 95% of this from operating cash flows.

A feasibility study for Havieron is due by the end of this year, with first production expected in 2028. The project offers a mine life of around 20 years, providing long-term visibility in an industry where many operations face declining reserves.

The main risks center on gold price sensitivity at Telfer, which performs significantly better at current gold prices around A$5,000 per ounce compared to lower price environments. Operational execution at the remote Pilbara location also presents ongoing challenges.