Morgans views on ASX 200 travel companies heading into August reporting season.
Flight Centre (ASX: FLT) pretty much pre-announced its FY22 results on Monday, now expecting to deliver a smaller loss between -$180m to -$190m compared to its previous guidance of -$195m to -$225m.
The update was in-line with Morgans view that the business was cashflow positive in the March quarter, with the Corporate segment profitable in March and Leisure segment expected to be profitable in May.
“Markets continuing to reopen and fewer restrictions provide strong momentum into FY23. Asia and Australian outboard are the laggards,” the analysts said.
Still, the uncertain macroeconomic environment could weigh on earnings, given "the potential for reduced corporate/consumer travel budgets".
The broker is Hold rated on Flight Centre shares, with a $19.60 target price.
“After a slow 3Q22 start due to Omicron, trading in March and the 4Q22 was strong,” noted Morgans analyst Belinda Moore.
“Revenue is lagging the recovery in total transaction values given less higher value international ticket sales vs. domestic, and the timing of accruing overrides," Moore added.
Morgans sees the potential for Corporate Travel (ASX: CTD) to surprise positively, as international markets continue to open. Though, flagged Asia (China's zero-covid policy) and Australian outbound as main laggards.
Higher ticket prices are expected to offset inflation and based on a full recovery from covid, Corporate Travel is forecast to generate earnings of $265m in FY23.
For this financial year, the company is projected to deliver a 209% increase in total transaction values to $4.97bn and deliver a underlying net profit of $17.8m, compared to a -$31.9m loss a year ago.
The broker is Add rated on Corporate Travel shares with a $25.85 target price.
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