ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 8th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, October 8. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 approaching breakeven

[2:00 pm] The ASX 200 is currently down just 0.06% as defensive sectors like Healthcare (+0.61%) and Financials (+0.38%) attempt to offset weakness from Discretionary (-1.80%), Tech (-1.37%) and Staples (-0.88%). All things considered, a relatively calm session.

I'm reading more analysis on the recent record moves across major asset classes (equities, Bitcoin, and gold) and the takes typically go something like this:

Historically, gold has only doubled over short periods during times of profound loss of confidence in the existing monetary and political order. Think the fall of Rome, Spain's decline as a world power, the French Revolution, and the end of Bretton Woods.

Equities, gold, and crypto are rallying for different reasons: AI euphoria, chasing growth, US dollar debasement concerns, and hedges against regulatory uncertainty. Though, the market isn't preparing for a recession, it's just chasing stores of value. Another way to put it is that inflation isn't going away, and paper money isn't cutting it anymore.

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Discretionary stocks slip

[1:29 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Discretionary Index (XDJ) is on a three day skid, down 1.7% on Wednesday and 3.3% this week to a near two-month low.

Names like Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi, Eagers Automotive, Super Retail and Tabcorp are all down around 2% at the time of writing.

On Tuesday, Australian consumer confidence dipped 3.5% to 92.1 in October, erasing all the May to August gains. Some of the key takeaways (from the blog yesterday) include:

• The index is now firmly in pessimistic territory, driven primarily by renewed inflation concerns and doubts about future rate cuts.

• Family finances expectations deteriorated sharply, with the forward-looking sub-index down nearly 10% to 97.1 (weakest in over a year). Current assessments also weakened as the support from this year's rate cuts and last year's tax cuts appears to be waning.

• Respondents surveyed before the RBA's hold decision were significantly more pessimistic, with just over half expecting rate rises versus only a third surveyed after the announcement. This suggests the decision to hold rates helped calm some fears.

• Despite sentiment softening, unemployment expectations remain benign (index at 127.6, slightly below long-run average), indicating consumers aren't worried about job security even as they grow more cautious about spending.

• The 'time to buy a major item' index remains 22% below its long-run average of 124 despite recent improvements, signaling consumers will remain value-conscious heading into the critical November-December retail period.

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ASX 200 bounces off lows

[1:25 pm] ASX 200 bouncing off intraday lows of -0.45%, now approaching breakeven.

Banks are the key driver behind this reversal, with the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index currently up 0.3% from session lows of -0.33%.

ASX 200 daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Gold crosses US$4,000

[1:23 pm] Gold CFDs are trading 0.52% higher on Wednesday, pushing US$4,004/oz.

Despite the historic price move, most gold miners are trading slightly lower.

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NZ gets big rate cut

[12:32 pm] The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has just cut the official NZ cash rate by 50 basis points to 2.50%.

It comes as the country faces anaemic growth, but inflation numbers towards the top of the bank's target band of 1-3%.

Annual inflation is currently at 2.7%, but is expected to return to around 2% in 2026, according to the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee.

Financial market predictions had seen a fairly even split between a 25 bps and 50 bps cut before the decision.

By Tom Stelzer

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Asia roundup

[12:24 pm] Here are some the biggest stories from Asia this week:

• The Japanese Yen is at an 8-month low against the US dollar after Sanae Takaichi was elected leader of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). She is set to become Japan's first female prime minister and has advocated for increased public spending.

• A bipartisan report by US lawmakers has found Chinese companies managed to buy US$38 billion in advanced chipmaking equipment last year, despite the US's efforts to restrict China's chipmaking efforts.

• FTSE Russell has upgraded Vietnam from 'frontier' status to 'emerging market', potentially unlocking billions in foreign investor capital to Southeast Asia's best-performing stock market. The update is scheduled to occur on 21 September 2026 but will be subject to an interim review in March.

By Tom Stelzer

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Mixed day for miners

[12:06 pm] We wrote earlier that Catalyst Metals' quarterly gold production numbers were 2,000 ounces lower than planned.

It is now down 4.67% on the day even as December gold futures passed US$4,000 for the first time ever.

Ora Banda is now down 4.26% after its gold production numbers missed consensus by ~10%, despite quarter-on-quarter growth up 39% to record highs.

Pilbara Minerals is up 4.62%, with Morgan Stanley lifting its price target for the lithium miner.

Uranium miner Lotus Resources is also up 3.18% after Sprott Inc increased its holdings in the company.

By Tom Stelzer

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NYSE owner ICE invests US$2bn in prediction market site Polymarket

[11:52 pm] Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, has announced it will take a stake in leading prediction market site Polymarket.

The deal values Polymarket at US$8 billion pre-money, despite the site only now preparing to re-enter the US market after more than three years.

I wrote yesterday about how prediction markets like Polymarket are opening up whole new ways for traders and investors to take positions on markets and it seems ICE wants to get in on the action.

Prediction market sites let individuals place bets on events across politics, the economy, sport and culture without going through a central bookmaker.

By Tom Stelzer

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[11:04 am] Aluminium, lithium and uranium stocks gained ground in early trade, while gold miners and growth stocks slump.

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ASX 200 lower on tech and discretionary weakness

[11:00 am] ASX 200 down 0.34% in early trade, still making intraday lows. Tech and retail stocks weighing on the market following growing AI bubble concerns overnight and poor Australian consumer confidence data on Tuesday.

The Index is now down around 0.67% in the last three sessions. Nothing wild, just pulling back from near-record highs.

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

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Analysts take on Web Travel Group

[10:54 am] A very volatile day for Web Travel Group on Tuesday, after the company reported a positive 1H26 trading update. The key numbers included:

• WebBed Bookings up 18% to 5.07 million vs. guidance of mid-to-high teens (%)

• WebBeds total transaction volumes up 22% to $3.17 billion vs. guidance of "at least $3.1 billion

• Total transaction value by regions all in-line with guidance, including Americas up 27%, Europe up 12% and Asia Pacific up 12%

• FY26 TTV margins to be between 6.2-6.4% vs. Citi estimates of 6.32%

The stock rallied as much as 11% but finished the session up just 2.9%.

Analysts were generally positive and raised their target prices, citing depressed multiple's despite improving fundamentals.

• Jarden retained Overweight, raised target from $5.30 to $5.40. H1 trading update beat guidance, driven by strong Americas performance, with margins steady and a positive outlook for FY27 margin expansion.

• Macquarie retained Outperform, raised target from $6.74 to $6.98. Update slightly beat across all metrics; margins seen as more sustainable, MEA growth slowed by geopolitical issues, but valuation remains attractive and medium-term goals intact.

• JPMorgan retained Overweight, kept target at $6.00. Top-line momentum aligned with AGM signals, margins expected to stabilise, and long-term growth targets remain achievable with an undemanding valuation.

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James Hardie rallies on guidance update

[10:44 am] James Hardie shares are up 9.0% ($32.97) in early trade after reporting a better-than-expected Q2 guidance. The key numbers include:

• Revenue of $1.29-1.30bn vs. $1.19bn ests (9% beat at the midpoint)

• Adjusted EBITDA of $326-331m vs. $277.5m ests (18% beat)

• EPS of 26-27 cents vs. 17 cents ests (56% beat)

The stock still has a lot of work cut out for it following a 27% one-day selloff in August, following the release of an abysmal FY25 result and guidance.

James Hardie daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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NWR upgrades FY26 guidance

[9:56 am] A sizeable FY26 guidance upgrade from NWR, including:

• Revenue in excess of $4bn vs. prior guidance in excess of $3.4bn and $3.99bn consensus (0.3% beat)

• Underlying EBITDA between $255-265m vs. prior guidance of $218-228m and $255.1m consensus (2% beat)

NWR shares have surged almost 60% since July, backed by a solid FY25 result and the acquisition of Fredon Industries (2 Sep) for up to $200 million.

Analysts widely viewed the Fredon acquisition as strategic and immediately EPS accretive. The 5.2x EV/EBIT multiple was considered attractive versus peers, and the acquisition aligned with management's previously flagged M&A intentions.

Source: Announcement | Company page: NRW Holdings (NWH)

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Turaco Gold reports drill results

[9:48 am] Haven't really followed this $490 million market cap gold name but its drill results at the Afema Project in Ghana read well at face value.

• Adiopan deposit:

  • 16m @ 5.03g/t gold from 121m

  • 25m @ 2.48g/t gold from 72m

  • 20m @ 1.92g/t gold from 79m

• Asupiri deposit:

  • 28m @ 1.92g/t gold from 53m

  • 9m @ 1.12g/t gold from 174m

Source: Announcement | Company page: Turaco Gold (TCG)

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Transurban: September quarter update

[9:42 am] Always interesting to see Transurban's quarterly traffic update. The key takeaways include:

• Group performance: Average daily traffic (ADT) up 2.7% year-on-year to 2.6 million trips per day across all markets.

• Sydney: ADT up 1.7% led by WestConnex (+8.2%), NorthConnex (+2.8%) and M5 West (+0.8%), with triple rainfall reducing growth by ~1%; CBD assets grew 0.4% in September for first time since April 2024. Heavy vehicles down 2.2% due to weather but underlying volumes flat.

• Melbourne: ADT up 3.2% driven by Western Link (+4.7%) with airport traffic growth aligned to 4.3% passenger growth at Melbourne Airport, plus easing construction impacts. Large vehicles up 5.4% supported by 8.2% container volume growth at Port of Melbourne

• Brisbane: ADT up 2.6% led by Logan Motorway (+3.2%) and Airportlink M7 (+3.0%), with large vehicles up 5.2%.

• North America: ADT up 6.8% with growth across all assets, workday traffic up 7.5% and weekend/holiday traffic up 4.2%.

Source: Announcement | Company page: Transurban (TCL)

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Catalyst Metals reports Q1 production

[9:37 am] Catalyst Metals says its September quarter gold production of 17,600 ounces was 2,000 ounces lower than planned, impacted by lower availability of the crushing circuit.

Cash and bullion at quarter end slipped to $227 million due to increasing exploration, development capex and lower gold production.

Catalyst reaffirmed its FY26 guidance of 100-110koz gold at an AISC of A$2,200-2,650/oz.

Source: Announcement | Company page: Catalyst Metals (CYL)

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Droneshield's landmark software release

[9:30 am] DroneShield has deployed its largest-ever RFAI-2 model and drone database expansion, built on five years of proprietary AI training data. The key developments include:

• DroneSentry-X Mk2 now features emitter-based disruption via the new RFAI-ATK engine, enabling protocol-aware, precision targeting of hostile drones while minimising collateral damage

• Hardware acceleration doubles DroneSentry-X Mk2's processing power through dedicated high-performance chips

• SAPIENT protocol integration across DroneSentry-X Mk2 and RfPatrol Mk2 enables seamless interoperability with NATO and allied defence networks

Source: Announcement | Company page: Droneshield's (DRO)

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Adamantem to proceed with Apiam takeover

[9:24 am] Sydney-based private capital firm Adamantem has completed due diligence investigations for Apiam Animal Health, one of Australia's leading rural veterinary businesses.

Adamantem will proceed with the non-binding indicative proposal to acquire Apiam at a cash price of 87 cents per share vs. its last closing price of 74.5 cents.

The exclusivity period has been extended for 10 business days, ending on 21 October, to allow for negotiation and signing of a binding transaction.

Source: Announcement | Company page: Apiam (AHX)

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Ora Banda reports Q1 production

[9:18 am] Ora Banda reported 39% quarter-on-quarter production growth to a record 30,600 ounces of gold.

"Record production, combined with full exposure to the rising gold price, increased closing cash by $38.5 million to $122.7 million for the quarter," the company said in a statement.

Ora Banda shares are up 97% year-to-date, though the stock suffered a sharp 50% correction between June and July, following a weaker-than-expected production report and full-year production/cost downgrade.

Source: Announcement | Company page: Ora Banda (OBM)

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Fedspeak remains mixed

[9:08 am] The latest commentary out of Fed policymakers remains divided, including:

• Daly: Says the Fed has enough room for further rate cuts and still have moderately restrictive rates, expressing concern about labour market health and wanting to "avoid precipitous increase in unemployment.

• Kashkari: Warns drastic cuts to interest rates could result in a burst of high inflation and notes recent data sending "stagflationary signals".

• Bostic: Stresses the Fed needs to be as analytical as possible and shouldn't merely be reactive. Advocates for measured, data-driven approach rather than knee-jerk responses.

• Miran: Reiterates lower inflation forecast than colleagues and warns that additional restrictiveness in monetary policy may be a risk.

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JPMorgan's Dimon says AI cost savings match expenses

[9:04 am] Despite AI bubble concerns, JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon said the investment bank spends around $2 billion a year on developing AI technology, and saves about the same amount from the investment.

“We know that it’s got to billions of cost savings and I think it’s the tip of the iceberg,” the bank’s chief executive officer said Tuesday in a Bloomberg TV interview.

The investment bank has deployed hundreds of AI use cases across trading, research, equity hedging, and customer service, with thousands of employees dedicated to AI development and plans to embed the technology in "every one of the company's processes" as a co-pilot tool

Source: Bloomberg

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Circular deals stoke AI bubble concerns

[8:59 am] The AI industry has evolved into a highly circular economy where the same handful of companies are simultaneously investors, suppliers, and customers to each other, writes NBC's Rob Wile.

More recently, Nvidia has invseted $100 billion in OpenAI, which buys Oracle cloud (powered by Nvidia chips), while Nvidia backs CoreWeave (which also serves OpenAI), and now AMD takes a potential 10% stake from OpenAI in exchange for chip supply.

This interconnected web of "related-party transactions" totaling hundreds of billions creates what analysts warn could be a mirage of growth, where money circulating among the same players artificially inflates valuations rather than reflecting genuine economic expansion.

The systemic risk is concentration, where "Magnificent 7" tech companies (Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) now represent over 35% of the S&P 500's entire ~$20 trillion market cap, and all are heavily invested in AI. This means a single weak link or disappointment in AI ROI could trigger cascading failures across the ecosystem with outsized economic impact

Source: NBC News

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Aluminium stocks set to rise

[8:53 am] The Wall Street Journal reported a fire at Novelis's Oswego plant, which supplies 40% of aluminium used by US auto manufacturers.

Ford shares dipped 6.1% on the news, while Alcoa shares rallied 5.1% to the highest level since February 2025.

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James Hardie rallies on Q2 guidance

[8:49 am] NYSE-listed James Hardie shares rallied 8.1% after the company reported a better-than-expected guidance for Q2.

• Revenue of $1.29-1.30bn vs. $1.19bn ests (9% beat at the midpoint)

• Adjusted EBITDA of $326-331m vs. $277.5m ests (18% beat)

• EPS of 26-27 cents vs. 17 cents ests (56% beat)

Some of the comments from management include:

• "We are encouraged by our Q2 results and believe the outlook for Siding & Trim has modestly improved. We will provide an update to our full year guidance through March with our Q2 earnings call in November."

• "The integration of AZEK and our synergy capture initiatives remain on-track. AZEK performed well in the second quarter, with mid-single digit growth in both net sales and sell-through for Deck, Rail & Accessories vs. the prior year."

• "We have clear opportunities to secure incremental shelf space for our Deck, Rail & Accessories products and expand James Hardie Siding & Trim into AZEK's loyal dealer network in key repair and remodel geographies.

Company page: James Hardie (JHX)

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Oracle slips on profitability concerns

[8:44 am] The Information reported Oracle lost nearly US$100 million from its cloud GPU rental business for the three months ended in August.

• Oracle's cloud GPU rental business generated ~$900m in revenue but only $125m in gross profit (13.9% gross margin) in the quarter ended August, significantly below Wall Street expectations

• The company is reportedly losing "considerable" money on smaller Nvidia GPU rental contracts across both new and old chip generations, raising questions about its aggressive AI infrastructure expansion strategy despite a massive 70% year-to-date rally

• Oracle's overall gross margin compressed to 67.3% (lowest in over a year) as heavy capex spending on chips and data center buildout weighs on profitability

Oracle shares slipped 2.5% overnight but bounced off session lows of -7.0%.

Source: The Information

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Good morning!

[8:33 am] ASX 200 futures are down 1pt (-0.01%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

• Major US benchmarks lower, with the S&P 500 (-0.38%), Nasdaq (-0.67%) and Russell 2000 (-1.12%) easing from Tuesday's record setting session

• Gold continued to push higher, closing just below US$4,000, copper also posted solid gains and above US$5.0/lb

• AI bubble fears on the rise amid circularity, ROI, energy requirements and valuation concerns, Oracle reportedly losing millions on Blackwell rentals

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.