ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 28th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, October 28. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Frasers declares 65c Accent offer best and final

[9:43 am] UK retailer and Sports Direct owner Frasers Group has ruled out raising its on-market takeover bid for footwear retailer Accent Group, urging shareholders to accept before the offer closes in January.

• The 65c cash offer is unconditional, with payment made two trading days after acceptance

• Accent shares have closed between 65c and 66c since 7 October

• No competing proposal has emerged in the more than four months since the offer was announced, with Frasers seeing little chance of one now

• Frasers criticised Accent for prioritising shareholder distributions amid earnings pressure, rising borrowings and growth investment obligations, including under the Sports Direct retail agreement

• The offer closes at 4pm Sydney time on 29 January 2027

Company page: Accent Group (AX1)

Boss Energy’s September quarter costs run below FY27 guidance

[9:37 am] Boss Energy kept Honeymoon production broadly flat in the September quarter with unit costs tracking below its guidance range, though its FY27 production guidance sits slightly under Macquarie’s ests (18-Sep).

• Drummed production down 1% to 359klbs U3O8 on the June quarter

• C1 cost of $47/lb (US$33/lb) and AISC of $79/lb (US$55/lb), both below the bottom of FY27 guidance

• Realised price of $117/lb (US$82/lb)

• Cash down $10m to $39m as Boss stockpiled a further 60klbs of drummed U3O8, with total cash and liquid assets of $195m

• Alta Mesa production fell to 10klbs from 45klbs in 4Q26 on a 100% basis, with Boss receiving no product from the Texas joint venture

• FY27 production guidance of 1.25–1.30Mlbs, with the 1.275Mlbs midpoint 2% below ests

• FY27 C1 cost guidance of $51–56/lb, with the $53.50/lb midpoint 4% below ests, while AISC guidance of $83–92/lb is in line

Company page: Boss Energy (BOE)

NextDC details covenant headroom after M3 power delay

[9:36 am] NextDC has laid out its debt covenant position in detail following last week’s M3 Melbourne power delay, showing comfortable compliance even with the affected contracts stripped out.

• Interest cover ratio of 5.91x vs a 1.5x minimum, pro forma for the 73MW of additional contracted utilisation announced on 21 July

• Covenant EBITDA could fall by $526.8m before the ratio hits the 1.5x minimum

• Contracted EBITDA of $444m makes up 63% of the $706m pro forma covenant EBITDA, as it is not yet billed

• Gearing ratio of 8.2% vs a 60% maximum

• The affected M3 contracts and any potential service level credits are excluded, and NextDC expects to comply with both covenants at the 31 December test

• Liquidity of $8.68bn at 30 September, made up of $1.28bn in cash and $7.4bn of undrawn senior debt and hybrid facilities

Company page: NextDC (NXT)

Shape backlog tops $1.5bn after $800m DigiCo data centre win

[9:31 am] Fitout and construction specialist Shape Australia made a strong start to FY27, with an $800 million data centre contract from DigiCo Infrastructure REIT more than doubling its backlog since the end of the quarter.

• Project wins up 50% to $504.6m in 1Q27 from $336m in 1Q26

• Backlog up 21% to $762.7m since 30 June

• The ~$800m DigiCo contract awarded in October lifted project wins above $1.4bn and backlog above $1.5bn as at 19 October

• DigiCo is expected to add about $200m in revenue in each of FY27 and FY28, above SHAPE’s pre-DigiCo forecasts

• Modular construction revenue up 42% to $20.6m from $14.5m in 1Q26

• The 120-day pipeline of known opportunities exceeds $1.7bn, with the total pipeline above $4.5bn

SHA shares tanked 25% between 5-23 October as the broader engineering/contractor sector sold off amid the failed Firmus IPO, AirTrunk listing delay and various other headwinds for the broader AI/data centre sector. The Anthropic S-1 filing has pumped life back into the sector, with SHA shares up 9% on Tuesday.

Company page: SHAPE Australia (SHA)

SciDev secures $8m in MaxiFlox chemistry contracts

[9:29 am] Water treatment and chemistry specialist SciDev has won three competitive tenders worth about $8 million, building its recurring revenue base as the Rum Jungle project winds down in 1H27.

• Committed contract value of about $8m across three contracts, with initial terms of roughly one to three years

• Extension options could add up to about $4m, taking total potential value to about $12m

• About $5m of revenue is expected to be recognised in FY27, with about $3m incremental to FY26

• Customers include a Hunter Valley coal miner, a major municipal water provider and the developer of a large national infrastructure project

• Recurring revenue rose to 38% of total revenue in FY26 from 30% in FY25, with SciDev now winning about $14m in new chemistry contracts in calendar 2026

Company page: SciDev (SDV)

West African Resources posts record quarter, pays 20c special dividend

[9:18 am] Burkina Faso gold miner West African Resources delivered another record quarter from its Sanbrado and Kiaka operations, keeping its run rate above 500,000 ounces a year.

• Gold production of 127,950oz, a quarterly record, at an AISC of US$1,570/oz

• Gold sales of 135,245oz at a realised price of US$4,240/oz

• Operating cash flow of $458m

• Cash of $1.195bn at quarter end, plus about $217m in unsold gold bullion

• A special dividend of 20cps was paid post quarter, with WAF also planning to accelerate debt repayments over the next 12 months

• Burkina Faso’s state miner SOPAMIB is expected to acquire 25% of Kiaka SA for about $174m in the December quarter, cutting WAF’s stake to 60% from 85%

• YTD production of 360,857oz at an AISC of US$1,725/oz is 78% of the midpoint of 2026 guidance of 430,000–490,000oz at an AISC below US$1,900/oz

WAF’s $458 million in operating cash flow for the quarter equates to roughly 12.5% of its $3.66bn market cap. That’s well ahead of peers like Evolution Mining and Ramelius Resources, where the same metric came in at just 3.2% and 2.8% respectively in their September quarters.

Company page: West African Resources (WAF)

PLS posts record production as unit costs fall 12%

[9:14 am] PLS delivered record September quarter production and far lower costs than Macquarie expected, though softer pricing and shipment timing dragged revenue lower.

• Production up 25% on the June quarter to a record 267.6kt vs 246.2kt ests (9% beat)

• Sales down 11% to 223.6kt vs 221.2kt ests (1% beat), with a 15kt shipment pushed into October by Port Hedland delays

• Realised price down 14% to US$1,809/t vs US$1,893/t ests (4% miss), or US$2,077/t on an SC6 basis

• Revenue down 24% to $563m

• Unit operating cost (FOB) down 12% to $539/t (US$381/t), though costs are expected to rise through the wet season

• Net cash down 5% to $1.28bn after paying the $161m FY26 final dividend

• FY27 capex guidance raised to $1,130–1,195m, with the $1,163m midpoint 2% above ests, while production and unit cost guidance were unchanged

Company page: PLS Group (PLS)

PLS signs 20-year Fortescue power deal to cut Pilgangoora costs

[9:03 am] Lithium miner PLS has become the first external customer for Fortescue’s Pilbara Green Grid renewable power network, a deal it expects to lower costs and strengthen its position through lithium cycles.

• The 20-year agreement covers a committed minimum of 325 GWh a year, with supply targeted to start in calendar 2029, subject to conditions precedent

• P2000 unit operating costs (FOB) are expected to fall by about $15–20/t vs the recently announced 10-year average

• Capex of about $150m is planned for the transmission connection and upgrades, phased $20m in FY27, $85m in FY28 and $45m in FY29

• Power-related emissions intensity is expected to fall by up to about 80% from the FY23 baseline by FY30

• Fortescue CEO Dino Otranto said the deal creates a new long-term revenue stream, with a strong pipeline of other Pilbara customers eyeing the Green Grid

Company page: PLS Group (PLS)

Nova Minerals secures final permits for Alaska antimony project

[9:03 am] Nova Minerals has completed permitting for its US government-funded Alaska antimony project, clearing the way for construction and targeted production of the critical defence mineral in 2027.

• Permits were secured within about three months of submission, covering mining at Styx and Stibium, ore sorting at Whiskey Bravo and refining at Port Mackenzie

• Phase 1 is fully funded through an existing US$43.4m award from the US Department of War

• All major long-lead equipment for mining and processing has been procured and delivered to project sites

• The process flowsheet is designed to produce military-grade antimony trisulfide and standard grade II antimony metal

Company page: Nova Minerals (NVA)

Monadelphous wins $150m of resources contracts

[9:02 am] Engineering contractor Monadelphous has secured about $150 million of new contracts across the iron ore and coal sectors.

• A four-year Rio Tinto contract continues maintenance and minor projects on its marine infrastructure at the Dampier and Cape Lambert ports

• A BHP contract tied to the Ministers North Project in the Pilbara covers temporary non-process infrastructure and services through to mid-2028

• A three-year contract with a two-year extension option continues shutdown services across Whitehaven Coal’s Queensland and NSW mine sites

Company page: Monadelphous (MND)

My two cents on Superhero buying into Raiz

[9:01 am] Raiz looks to be trading at an opportunistic level, with rival Superhero’s latest funding round suggesting the market is pricing in a hefty hit from its tax-compliance issues.

• Raiz shares fell 32% on 13 October after a four-day trading halt, when it revealed tax-compliance failures spanning more than a decade that the board can’t yet quantify

• Raiz now has a market cap of about $35m, with $15.4m in cash as at 30 June

• FY26 revenue rose 21% to $29.2m, with underlying EBITDA up 93% to $5.5m and funds under management up 28% to $2.3bn

• Superhero raised $20m at a $186m valuation in August, according to the AFR, after FY26 revenue rose 46% to $27m, with underlying EBITDA of $6.8m and $4bn in FUM

• Superhero’s EBITDA multiple would value Raiz closer to $140m, more than four times its current market cap, though the size of the tax bill remains unknown

Company page: Raiz Invest (RZI)

Superhero snaps up 10% stake in rival Raiz

[8:54 am] Online investing platform Superhero has taken a strategic 10% stake in micro-investing app Raiz Invest, whose shares have fallen 60% over the past year.

• Superhero acquired the stake through Barrenjoey, though sources say it has no plans to launch a takeover bid for Raiz

• Superhero raised $20m at a $186m valuation in August and had about $4bn in platform assets and more than 450,000 customers

• Raiz had $2.3bn in funds under management and 351,000 active customers as of 30 June, swinging to a $3.5m FY26 profit from a $400,000 loss in FY25

• Raiz shares are down 80% since listing in mid-2018, leaving it with a market cap of about $34m

• Superhero joins Thorney Investment Group, owned by Alex Waislitz, on the register, while Seven West Media ceased to be a substantial holder in May

Source: AFR

Oil slips as Gulf diplomacy picks up and Saudi supply returns

[8:52 am] Oil eased as diplomacy with Tehran ramped up, though attacks on Gulf infrastructure and Trump’s threat of renewed strikes keep supply risks alive.

• Brent’s prompt spread widened to near $5 a barrel from $3.69 a week ago, signalling tight near-term supply

• Iran said it is flexible on a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade within seven days

• Officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan and Qatar visited Tehran as Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reiterated demands that the US end its blockade and lift sanctions

• Saudi Aramco has offered spot cargoes to European buyers for October and November after its East-West pipeline restarted, pushing down some European grades

• Middle East oil exports are back near prewar levels, with Saudi output up a third to over 8 million barrels a day in September and UAE output at a record

• Saudi Arabia contained a fire near its Ras Tanura export terminal after an attack, while Trump has flagged strikes on Iran could resume after the 3 November midterms

• The IAEA has seen no sign Iran has repaired nuclear sites damaged in 2025 and 2026 strikes, but still can’t verify the status of 440kg of 60%-enriched uranium

Netanyahu loses majority as Israeli exit polls show no clear winner

[8:51 am] Exit polls show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc losing its majority, a result that will shape the course of the Iran war.

• Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to fall to 50 seats from 68 in the previous Knesset, according to Channel 12 exit polls

• Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc is projected at 52 seats, with Arab parties on a record 18, but 61 of 120 seats are needed to govern

• Likud is still tipped to be the largest party with 24 seats vs 22 for Eisenkot’s Yashar party

• Other opposition leaders have ruled out a government relying on Arab support, leaving deadlock, a unity government or another election all possible

• Eisenkot has said regime change in Iran is not achievable, and Mizuho says a Netanyahu loss would make it harder for Trump to act alone

• Final results are expected within 48 hours, though coalition talks could take weeks

Fed tipped to hold, with December hike in focus

[8:51 am] Markets expect the Fed to stay on hold this week, putting the spotlight on how Chair Kevin Warsh frames the path to a likely December hike.

• Fed funds futures price about a 10% chance of a hike this week, better than 80% for December and another move by March 2027, per CME FedWatch

• The Fed lifted rates by 25 basis points in September, its first hike since 2023, taking the target range to 3.75–4%

• US CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year in September, nearly double the Fed’s 2% target, with core CPI up 0.3 percentage points from August to 2.6%

• Jefferies says a hike this week is a much closer call than markets are pricing, arguing the Fed has talked itself into a pause

• Citi expects a December hike but sees easing inflation potentially allowing the Fed to cut next year

US consumer confidence rises for first time in four months

[8:50 am] US consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in October as easing petrol prices and a firmer view of the jobs market lifted sentiment.

• The Conference Board index rose 7.5 points to 91.7, the highest since June, vs 81.0 ests

• The expectations index rose nearly 7 points to 72.6, while present conditions hit their highest since April

• The share of Americans seeing jobs as plentiful rose to a six-month high

• Durable goods orders rose 1.8% in September vs 1.7% ests

• New home sales fell 0.6% to 676,000 in September vs 653,000 ests

• The University of Michigan’s sentiment index fell to a five-month low last week as high prices and rising rates weighed

China industrial profits jump 14.4% on oil and AI

[8:50 am] China’s industrial profits grew at their fastest pace in three months in September, though the gains remain concentrated in AI and commodity-linked sectors.

• Industrial profits rose 14.4% year-on-year in September vs 12% ests, up from 4.2% in August

• Profits for the first nine months rose 15.5%, slightly slower than the 15.7% pace through August

• Factory-gate prices rose 5% year-on-year in September, the fastest since 2022, driven by energy and AI hardware costs

• Electronics profits more than doubled over nine months, adding 9.6 percentage points to overall growth, with optical fibre makers up more than sixfold

• Raw material industries’ profits rose 45%, helped by AI and renewables demand for copper and aluminium

• The CSI 300 entered a bear market late last week, with MSCI China members missing earnings ests by an average 9%

Meta’s $25bn share sale five times oversubscribed, Nvidia takes $3bn

[8:49 am] Meta’s upsized share sale drew heavy demand as it pushes ahead with one of the largest equity funding plans in history to fund its AI build-out.

• The $25bn common stock offering drew demand for about five times the shares available, pricing at $625, a 2.7% discount to Friday’s close

• The 15 largest investors took about 70% of the shares, with more than half allocated to long-only and existing holders

• Nvidia will invest $3bn in the raise and expand its partnership with Meta on the Muse family of AI models

• The broader plan totals almost $98bn, including a $12.5bn mandatory convertible preferred offering that was also multiple times oversubscribed

• Meta shares fell 1.6% to $620.19 overnight

Visa caps record year with 13% revenue growth, unveils $2.4bn BioCatch deal

[8:48 am] Visa’s fourth-quarter result edged past ests as cross-border volumes held up, capping its strongest year of revenue growth in over 15 years outside the post-pandemic rebound. The stock is currently down 1.8% after hours.

• Revenue up 13% to $12.1bn vs $12.08bn ests (in line)

• Cross-border volume ex-Europe up 14% in 4Q26, while total payments volume rose 9%

• Adjusted EPS up 17% to $3.48 vs $3.44 ests (1% beat)

• Quarterly dividend up 16% to 78cps

• Visa will acquire BioCatch for $2.4bn in cash, adding the Israeli behavioural biometrics fraud-detection business

Seagate guides well above ests as storage demand compounds

[8:48 am] Hard drive maker Seagate delivered record profitability in its September quarter, but the standout was second-quarter guidance comfortably ahead of ests. The stock is currently down 4.7% after hours.

• Revenue of $4.2bn vs $4.14bn ests (1% beat)

• Gross margin of 57.8%

• Adjusted EPS of $7.68 vs $7.42 ests (4% beat)

• 2Q27 revenue guidance of $4.7–4.9bn, with the $4.8bn midpoint vs $4.53bn ests (6% beat)

• 2Q27 adjusted EPS guidance of $9.00–9.40, with the $9.20 midpoint vs $8.58 ests (7% beat)

Boeing sinks 11% as delivery target cut overshadows Navy fighter win

[8:47 am] Boeing posted a wider-than-expected third-quarter loss and cut its delivery target, overshadowing progress on 737 certification and a major US Navy contract. The stock tumbled 10.6%, now down 22.9% year-to-date.

• Revenue up 4% to $24.2bn vs $23.84bn ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted loss per share of 34c vs a 21c loss ests (62% miss)

• Free cash flow of $464m, with operating cash flow up 33% to $1.5bn

• The 737-7 received amended type certification from the US Federal Aviation Administration, with the 737-10 certified in October

• Boeing was selected by the US Navy to design, build and deliver its next-generation fighter jet

PayPal lifts full-year EPS guidance despite revenue miss

[8:46 am] PayPal’s third-quarter revenue came in light, but a strong earnings beat allowed it to raise full-year EPS guidance above ests.

• Revenue up 2% to $8.6bn vs $8.71bn ests (1% miss)

• Total payment volume up 6% to $487.1bn vs $489.44bn ests (in line)

• Adjusted EPS up 8% to $1.45 vs $1.31 ests (11% beat)

• FY26 adjusted EPS guidance raised to about $5.60 from about $5.38, vs $5.38 ests (4% beat)

• 4Q26 adjusted EPS guidance of about $1.43 vs $1.35 ests (6% beat)

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson sees post-midterm rally lifting S&P 500 to 8,000

[8:44 am] Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson says the US equity correction is nearing an end, with the midterms set to act as a clearing event.

• Wilson keeps a year-end S&P 500 base case of 8,000, about 3.6% above Tuesday’s close of 7,722.60

• Wilson warns the path could be messy for days or weeks after the 3 November vote, citing capital scarcity and tightening financial conditions

• Wilson says high-quality stocks have led through this mid-cycle transition and are now breaking out

• Midterm years have been the weakest of the presidential cycle since 1950, with a median S&P 500 gain of about 1%

• The S&P 500 has been higher a year after all 19 midterms since 1950, though in 2018 stocks slid into a bear market before bottoming on Christmas Eve

Average US stock on track for record monthly comeback as chips slide

[8:43 am] Investors are rotating out of chipmakers and into energy and staples, putting the average US stock on track for its biggest one-month turnaround against the index since at least 1990.

• The equal-weight S&P 500 is beating the index by about 4 percentage points in October, after trailing by 4.5 points in September

• The PHLX Semiconductor Index is down about 12% this month through Monday, even after a bounce

• Energy is up 13% and staples 9% in October, with staples on track for their best month in nearly five years

• Equal weight is on track for its first winning year against the S&P 500 since 2022

Source: Yahoo Finance

Merz pushes closer EU-Asia ties, warns on China

[8:43 am] German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for closer coordination between Europe and Asia on trade and security as pressure from China builds.

• The EU plans to use safeguard measures to cut Chinese imports in sectors including chemicals, furniture and machinery, according to people familiar

• Merz backs faster bilateral deals with Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia while an EU deal with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is negotiated

• Merz called on China to stop supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine

• Merz meets Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Wednesday before travelling to South Korea on Thursday

Source: Bloomberg

Apple launches M6 MacBook Pro and iMac

[8:43 am] Apple unveiled a new 14-inch MacBook Pro and iMac running its M6 chips as it steps up its second-half product cadence.

• The MacBook Pro starts at US$1,999 and the iMac at US$1,499, with both on sale from 6 November

• Mac accounted for US$33.7bn of Apple’s US$416.1bn in FY25 revenue, its fourth-largest segment

• Apple is expected to launch its first touchscreen MacBook on Wednesday

• The foldable iPhone Duo is sold out with deliveries into late January, though Apple has acknowledged reports of some displays breaking along the hinge

• Apple shares closed 0.9% higher at $347.10

Source: Yahoo Finance

Wall Street rises as chipmakers rally ahead of big tech earnings

[8:42 am] A 3.6% jump in chipmakers revived the AI trade as traders positioned for results this week from tech giants worth more than $10tn.

• The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.3% and the Dow was little changed

• Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon report this week, with investors focused on how much they’re spending on AI and when it pays off

• Broadcom has arranged a $63bn financing deal with Bank of America, Blackstone, Citi and Morgan Stanley to fund chip purchases for Anthropic

• Oracle will offer cloud services built on Cerebras Systems’ computers, adding a major customer for the Nvidia challenger

• Boeing sank ~11% after cutting its delivery target, while UPS climbed on a solid outlook

• Coca-Cola raised its 2026 outlook on strong international demand, though North American volumes missed

Good morning!

[8:27 am] ASX 200 futures are up 18 pts (+0.20%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Chipmakers led tech higher for a second session, lifting the Nasdaq and S&P 500 while the Dow stalled ahead of the Fed decision and Big Tech results

  • S&P 500 (+0.60%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.11%)

  • Nasdaq (+1.18%), Dow (+0.03%), Russell 2000 (+1.16%)

• Oil slipped as Iran diplomacy picked up, while Israel's election delivered no clear winner on early exit polls. Brent slipped 0.9% to US$114 a barrel, while WTI crude eased 1.0% to US$100

• The Fed began its two-day meeting with markets expecting a hold on Wednesday and a possible signal toward more hikes