ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 15th July
The S&P/ASX 200 is set to rise after a cooler-than-expected US inflation print eased Fed hike bets and buoyed commodity prices.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, July 15. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 higher as BHP soars
[1:58 pm] That's a wrap! The ASX 200 is currently up 28 pts (+0.32%), though eight of eleven sectors are currently trading lower. Materials (+1.79%) is doing all the heavy lifting, as copper, lithium, iron ore and rare earth names traded higher, and BHP rallied 3.8%. Tech (+1.0%) was another bright spot, with data centre and connectivity names running hard, NextDC up 6.5% and Megaport up 2.7%, and Zip and Block catching a strong bid on PayPal takeover chatter. Yield and defensives are under pressure, with Telcos (-1.0%), Staples (-0.9%), Energy (-0.8%) and Banks (-0.8%) trading lower. Gold names handed back early gains to finish lower, the gold sub-index off 0.84%. Small caps outran the majors, the Small Ordinaries up 0.60% against the ASX 20's 0.39%.
A cooler-than-expected US CPI print fed an existing unwind in recent winners, with staples, discretionary and healthcare all giving ground as the bid rotated into miners and rate-sensitive tech. China's data dump was a little mixed, with Q2 GDP slowing to 4.3% year-on-year and missing the 4.5% consensus, but the June activity read beat across the board, industrial production, retail sales and the jobless rate all ahead of forecast, enough to keep a bid under the iron ore names. US futures were steady into the close, S&P 500 futures up 0.19% and Nasdaq futures up 0.68%.
Stripe and Advent offer to buy PayPal for more than US$53bn
[1:43 pm] The payments group and private equity firm have made a joint approach pitched at a substantial premium, though PayPal has yet to respond.
Stripe and Advent have offered US$60.50 per share, valuing PayPal at more than US$53bn, a roughly 28% premium to Tuesday's close
The pair would jointly own PayPal in equal stakes rather than break up the company
The offer follows an initial approach in early April, with the bidders seeking to reach agreement by month-end
PayPal has not responded and there is no certainty the approach leads to a transaction, the sources said
This news is the likely catalyst behind a sudden uptick for Zip (+10.1%) and Block (+5.5%).
Source: Reuters
Gold stocks give back early gains
[1:33 pm] A cooler-than-expected US inflation print lifted gold 1.2% overnight to US$4,052 an ounce, carrying the All Ords Gold Index up around 1.0% in early trade. The optimism faded fast and gold has since slipped 0.5% to US$4,033 an ounce this session, dragging the XGD down by the same margin.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price | 1 Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RRL | Regis Resources | -4.8% | $6.28 | -3.9% | -16.6% |
MEK | Meeka Metals | -4.5% | $0.11 | 0.0% | -61.1% |
EVN | Evolution Mining | -3.2% | $11.41 | -3.0% | -9.3% |
SBM | St. Barbara | -1.8% | $0.45 | -5.9% | -22.3% |
GMD | Genesis Minerals | -1.7% | $5.90 | 4.2% | -17.6% |
OBM | Ora Banda Mining | -1.3% | $1.10 | 0.0% | -28.1% |
VAU | Vault Minerals | -1.3% | $4.92 | 1.1% | -9.7% |
BGL | Bellevue Gold | -1.1% | $1.30 | 0.0% | -23.1% |
EMR | Emerald Resources | -1.1% | $5.30 | -0.6% | -15.6% |
ALK | Alkane Resources | -1.1% | $1.39 | 0.4% | 4.5% |
BC8 | Black Cat Syndicate | -0.9% | $0.90 | -1.4% | -25.8% |
RMS | Ramelius Resources | -0.8% | $2.98 | 0.8% | -27.3% |
PRU | Perseus Mining | -0.8% | $4.81 | -1.4% | -12.7% |
WGX | Westgold Resources | -0.7% | $4.72 | -0.7% | -25.2% |
RSG | Resolute Mining | -0.3% | $0.93 | 0.8% | -24.3% |
NEM | Newmont | 0.1% | $135.07 | -0.1% | -10.0% |
PNR | Pantoro Gold | 1.0% | $2.02 | -9.6% | -58.9% |
CMM | Capricorn Metals | 1.3% | $12.91 | -3.7% | -7.8% |
NST | Northern Star Resources | 1.6% | $20.20 | 0.0% | -17.8% |
CYL | Catalyst Metals | 2.1% | $5.86 | 4.5% | -20.6% |
AMI | Aurelia Metals | 7.3% | $0.30 | 7.3% | 20.4% |
CommSec eyes more US tech floats after record SpaceX demand
[12:58 pm] CommSec plans to broker further US listings for local clients, capitalising on its lead retail role in SpaceX's June IPO amid thin domestic tech exposure.
CommSec was the lead Australian retail broker for SpaceX's US$75bn June listing, which valued the company at roughly US$1.75 trillion at float
Received more than 28,000 SpaceX applications, a record and four times its previous largest IPO, with 37,000 international accounts opened in the lead-up
Managing Director James Fowle flagged plans to market more US IPOs, citing client appetite for offshore tech given the local market skews to resources and financials
Tesla and Nvidia rank among CommSec clients' most-traded offshore stocks, with data centre names NEXTDC, Megaport and Infratil also drawing flows
CommSec contributed $339m in net interest and other operating income to CBA in 2025
Source: Bloomberg
SK Hynix ADR premium balloons to 51% as arbitrage stays frozen
[12:57 pm] A locked conversion pipeline and near-impossible borrow have left the chipmaker's US receipts trading far above its Seoul-listed shares three days after debut.
SK Hynix ADRs jumped 27% on Tuesday, recovering a 9.3% drop the prior day, pushing the premium over Seoul shares to 51% versus the 3% gap at pricing in the US$26.5bn offering
Arbitrage is frozen because new common shares do not list in Korea until 29 July, the conversion pipeline is locked and ADR borrow is nearly impossible to source
ADR books stay closed for issuance and cancellation until 29 July, and holders may be unable to later swap common stock back into ADRs without Korean regulatory approval
Each ADR equals one-tenth of a common share, with Citigroup acting as depositary bank
Source: Bloomberg
IGO to divest Nova nickel operation to Global Lithium for $7m
[12:52 pm] IGO has agreed to sell its Nova nickel operation in Western Australia, with the buyer planning to repurpose the processing plant for lithium concentrate from its nearby Manna project.
Global Lithium subsidiary to acquire Nova, including the processing plant, infrastructure and rehabilitation obligations, for total consideration of $7m
Nova continues to operate strongly and is expected to generate strong cash flows for IGO until mining concludes as planned in the December 2026 quarter
Global Lithium plans to process pegmatite ore from its Manna project, about 170km by road, targeting concentrate production from mid-2027
Completion expected after mining ends, subject to customary conditions including ACCC approval
For context, Nova was the flagship of Sirius Resources, which IGO acquired in 2015 for $1.8 billion. This was during the top of the last nickel cycle, and now being divested for $7 million as the mine depletes and mining wraps up.
Company page: IGO (IGO)
Top ASX 200 gainers and losers at noon
[12:50 pm] Kingsgate continues to top the leaderboard, Zip and NextDC have trended a little higher intraday, while Energy and Defensive names lag.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
KCN | Kingsgate | 17.26% | $4.28 |
ZIP | Zip Co | 6.95% | $3.16 |
NXT | NextDC | 6.69% | $13.95 |
SLX | Silex Systems | 4.84% | $4.98 |
CSC | Capstone Copper | 4.70% | $13.81 |
ABB | Aussie Broadband | 4.57% | $4.92 |
JHX | James Hardie | 4.53% | $37.19 |
ELV | Elevra Lithium | 4.22% | $9.27 |
BHP | BHP Group | 3.99% | $61.05 |
EOS | Electro Optic Systems | 3.44% | $8.27 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
RRL | Regis Resources | -3.95% | $6.33 |
RMD | Resmed | -3.13% | $27.72 |
EVN | Evolution Mining | -2.89% | $11.44 |
ARB | ARB Corp | -2.51% | $17.46 |
TAH | Tabcorp | -2.38% | $0.82 |
LLC | Lendlease Group | -2.33% | $2.94 |
TCL | Transurban Group | -2.29% | $14.29 |
PXA | Pexa Group | -2.16% | $7.69 |
XRO | Xero | -2.05% | $69.35 |
YAL | Yancoal Australia | -1.71% | $5.47 |
China Q2 GDP slows but activity data beats expectations
[12:03 pm] Second-quarter growth eased as expected, though June industrial production, retail sales and the jobless rate all came in ahead of consensus.
Q2 GDP grew 4.3% year-on-year, below the 4.5% consensus and down from 5% prior
June industrial production rose 5.3% versus 4.6% expected, though slowing from 5% prior
June retail sales rose 1% against expectations of a 0.1% decline, rebounding from a 0.6% prior fall
Fixed asset investment fell 5.7% year to date, worse than the 4.9% decline expected and deepening from 4.1% prior
The June unemployment rate held at 5%, better than the 5.1% expected, while Q2 industrial capacity utilisation slipped to 73% from 73.6%
Mayfield Group to acquire Nilsen's switchboards division for $4m
[11:33 am] The electrical infrastructure manufacturer will buy the Switchboards Division of Nilsen, in its third acquisition in twelve months. This was announced pre-market, and the stock is currently up 7.2% to $2.82.
$4m cash consideration funded from existing reserves, with completion forecast for 31 July
Includes $3.9m of new work-in-hand and is expected to provide a revenue base of $10-15m in FY27
Expected to accelerate utilisation of the Royal Park facility acquired in January 2026, with the N-Series range serving commercial, industrial, infrastructure, defence, mining, utilities and data centre markets
Completion remains subject to customary conditions including employee transfer thresholds
Company page: Mayfield Group (MYG)
Analysts' take on Ora Banda
[11:31 am] Ora Banda Mining's annual Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve update on Tuesday for Davyhurst delivered growth on both metrics, with Mineral Resources up 75% year-on-year to 3.69Moz and Ore Reserves up 159% to 610koz, driven largely by Round Dam and Waihi.
Euroz Hartleys retained Buy, target unchanged at $2.05, viewing reserve growth as the key expansion driver that paves the way for a material earnings step change in a compelling, self-funded growth story.
Evolution Mining slips as Q4 miss outweighs guidance beat
[10:28 am] The gold miner is underperforming the broader gold index after June-quarter production and costs fell short of estimates, overshadowing full-year guidance delivery and record cash flow. Evolution shares are currently down 2.3% vs. the 0.17% gain for the All Ords Gold Index.
Q4 gold production of 180koz missed the 188.4koz estimate, while AISC of $1,706/oz came in 9% above the $1,569/oz expected
FY26 still met group guidance at 715koz gold and 66kt copper, with record cash flow of $1,389m and a net cash balance of $1,347m
Company page: Evolution Mining (EVN)
Experience Co jumps 31% on skydive divestment
[10:26 am] Experienced Co surged after announcing a non-binding term sheet to fold its skydive and aviation operations into New Zealand's Inflite Group, with the roughly $65 million consideration close to the entire company's value.
Shares currently up 31% to 10.5 cents (up as much as 50% to 12 cents at the open), having tumbled 38% year to date to leave EXP with a market cap of just $60m before the announcement
With $13.3m of net debt at the 1H26 result, enterprise value sits at about $73.3m against the $65m consideration
The skydive business generated 45% of group revenue in the first half ($30.6m of $67.2m), so EXP has effectively sold half the company for a price close to its entire value
Miners bounce, copper stocks lead
[10:22 am] Large cap miners opened broadly higher following a solid overnight lead for commodity prices, where copper settled 1.49% higher to US$6.38/lb and gold bounced 1.2% to US$4,051/oz.
S&P/ASX 200 Materials daily chart (Source: TradingView)
BHP is trading notably higher, up 3.3%, but still ~7.2% off its 17 June record high.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price | 1 Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BHP | BHP Group | 3.3% | $60.67 | 5.8% | 33.3% |
RIO | Rio Tinto | 1.1% | $165.40 | -0.3% | 12.7% |
FMG | Fortescue | 0.1% | $19.04 | 4.0% | -13.5% |
NST | Northern Star | 1.3% | $20.14 | -0.3% | -18.0% |
EVN | Evolution Mining | -2.8% | $11.45 | -2.6% | -8.9% |
S32 | South32 | 0.6% | $4.08 | 4.5% | 14.8% |
LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | 0.0% | $16.25 | -3.3% | 30.9% |
PLS | PLS Group | 0.6% | $4.56 | -4.1% | 8.5% |
BSL | Bluescope Steel | -0.2% | $31.99 | 0.5% | 32.9% |
MIN | Mineral Resources | 1.7% | $59.88 | 0.2% | 10.1% |
ORI | Orica | 0.8% | $23.52 | -0.5% | -3.0% |
SFR | Sandfire Resources | 1.9% | $19.20 | 6.1% | 6.9% |
Top ASX 200 gainers and losers
[10:16 am] Kingsgate bounces after a 27% selloff in the prior two sessions, compute names like Megaport and NextDC catch a bid, while copper and lithium stocks also open broadly higher. Meanwhile, laggards like ResMed, Evolution and high-profile tech open slightly lower.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
KCN | Kingsgate | 12.33% | $4.10 |
ZIP | Zip Co | 5.08% | $3.10 |
NXT | NextDC | 4.97% | $13.72 |
MP1 | Megaport | 4.37% | $20.77 |
CSC | Capstone Copper | 4.17% | $13.74 |
ELV | Elevra Lithium | 3.94% | $9.24 |
ABB | Aussie Broadband | 3.94% | $4.89 |
JHX | James Hardie | 3.68% | $36.89 |
ORA | Orora | 3.64% | $1.43 |
VUL | Vulcan Energy Resources | 3.62% | $2.86 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
RMD | Resmed | -2.87% | $27.79 |
NCK | Nick Scali | -2.75% | $15.18 |
EVN | Evolution Mining | -2.29% | $11.51 |
PXA | Pexa Group | -2.04% | $7.70 |
GQG | GQG Partners | -1.79% | $1.38 |
TCL | Transurban Group | -1.54% | $14.40 |
PNR | Pantoro Gold | -1.50% | $1.97 |
PME | Pro Medicus | -1.30% | $192.30 |
XRO | Xero | -1.20% | $69.95 |
ORG | Origin Energy | -1.15% | $10.35 |
ASX 200 nears one-month high as miners bounce
[10:11 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is up 0.73% in early trade, extending its gain over the last four sessions to 1.26% and reaching its highest level since 19 June. In a reversal of recent weeks, Staples, Healthcare and Discretionary are lagging while Materials and Tech outperform. Materials is bouncing off a sharp 13.3% pullback from its 17 June record high, though it remains 9.3% below that peak.
S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)
Kingsgate restores ~50% of Chatree's Plant 1 capacity
[9:45 am] The gold miner has restarted the modified Plant 1 at its Chatree operation in Thailand after isolating the Ball Mill and recommissioning SAG Mill 1.
Modified Plant 1 ran continuously during a successful trial at about 105-110 wet tonnes per hour
Power draw held below capacity at about 2.3 MW, allowing throughput to lift to roughly 130 wet tonnes per hour, or about 1.1Mtpa equivalent
The initiatives bring total Chatree processing capacity back above 4Mtpa while Ball Mill 1 remediation continues
The mechanical failure was announced on Monday 13 July, driving Kingsgate shares 27% lower over the last two sessions.
Company page: Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN)
Amplitude Energy sets FY26 records despite soft Q4 revenue
[9:38 am] The gas producer posted annual production, revenue and realised price records, though a brief period of weak winter spot prices dragged fourth-quarter revenue below estimates.
Q4 revenue of $70.3m vs $75.6m ests (7% miss), on soft early-winter spot gas prices
Q4 production of 6.81 PJe beat 6.66 PJe ests, though realised oil and condensate price of $118.9/GJ fell well short of $156.8/GJ expected
FY26 production of 27.6 PJe, up 3%, a group record, with revenue up 7% to $285.8m and the realised gas price up 4% to $10.35/GJ
Orbost Gas Processing Plant produced a record 24.3 PJ over FY26, up 7%, with new daily highs set post quarter end
Acquired the Artisan gas field from Beach Energy, consolidating resources to underpin East Coast Supply Project economics
Ended FY26 with net debt of $37.2m, with the Juliet prospect due to spud in late July or early August and development FID expected in Q1 FY27
Company page: Amplitude Energy (AEL)
Evolution Mining meets FY26 guidance despite soft Q4 output
[9:34 am] The gold miner delivered record annual cash flow and moved to a net cash position, though June-quarter production and costs missed estimates.
Q4 gold production of 180koz vs 188.4koz ests (4% miss)
Q4 copper production of 19kt broadly in line at 19.2kt expected
Q4 AISC of $1,706/oz vs $1,569/oz ests (9% higher)
Though improved 23% quarter-on-quarter
Realised gold price of $5,928/oz
FY26 group production of 715koz gold and 66kt copper at a sector-leading AISC of $1,717/oz, meeting guidance
Record FY26 group cash flow of $1,389m at a $1,958/oz margin, ending fully unhedged with a net cash balance of $1,347m
Flagged FY27 AISC inflation of 4-5% ($150-160/oz) and sustaining capital $50-60m above FY26, with full guidance due 19 August
Company page: Evolution Mining (EVN)
Webjet names Nicole Sheffield as new managing director and CEO
[9:33 am] The online travel group has appointed the former Wesfarmers OneDigital boss as its permanent chief, effective 20 July, ending an interim arrangement in place since May.
Sheffield takes over from acting CEO Layton Shannos, who stepped in after the former MD and CEO resigned in late May
Brings more than 25 years across commercial growth, digital innovation and transformation at major Australian consumer and technology businesses
Most recently led Wesfarmers OneDigital, overseeing the OnePass membership program, the Catch marketplace and the group's data platform
Previously held senior roles at Australia Post, News Corp Australia and Seven West Media, alongside board positions including chair of the Australian Retail Council
Company page: Webjet Group (WJL)
Drilling results across Dateline, Strickland and Brightstar
[9:31 am] Three ASX-listed explorers reported resource and exploration updates spanning US rare earths, a Serbian gold-copper project and a growing Western Australian gold hub.
Dateline Resources returned rare earth assays up to 7.1% (71,300 ppm) TREO from surface sampling at its Music Valley project in California, with all 33 samples anomalous across three target areas
The NW Target proved the most consistent, with 11 samples over a ~200m strike ranging from 0.68% to 1.09% TREO, supporting follow-up mapping and drill target definition
Strickland Metals lifted its Copper Canyon inferred resource to 0.82Moz gold equivalent (16Mt at 1.6g/t AuEq), a ~290koz gold increase versus 2021, taking the total Rogozna project in Serbia to 9.25Moz AuEq
The deposit was economically constrained using a US$3,000/oz gold price and US$12,000/t copper price, with Strickland well-funded at about $81m cash as at 31 March
Brightstar Resources grew its Sandstone gold resource 18% to 2.9Moz (69Mt at 1.3g/t Au), with the measured and indicated component up 113% to 1.1Moz, lifting the group total to 4.5Moz
A second Sandstone resource update is due in Q4 CY26 alongside the project's PFS and maiden ore reserve, with four rigs currently active
Company page: Dateline (DTR), Strickland (STK) and Brightstar (BTR
Macmahon wins $355m Mt Marion underground contract
[9:29 am] The mining services contractor has secured an initial three-year deal for underground development and production at the Mt Marion lithium operation in Western Australia.
Contract valued at $355m over an initial three years, with an option to extend by a further year
Covers all underground development and production mining at Mt Marion, located 70km south of Kalgoorlie
Mt Marion is owned 50/50 by Mineral Resources and Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium
Company page: Macmahon Holdings (MAH)
Alcoa to build gallium plant in trilateral critical minerals push
[9:28 am] Australia, Japan, the United States and Alcoa have reached a final investment decision on a gallium production facility at the company's Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia, aimed at diversifying supply of the strategically concentrated mineral.
Alcoa will construct and operate the plant, co-located at Wagerup, leveraging its alumina refining and mineral processing experience
Gallium is a critical mineral used in semiconductors and defence applications, with global supply currently highly concentrated
The facility is backed by the governments and industry partners of Australia, Japan and the US to strengthen critical mineral supply chains
Construction will begin following final site preparations, with Alcoa's participation not expected to materially affect its financial position or results
Company page: Alcoa (AAI)
Vulcan Energy receives first equity funds from Lionheart backers
[9:22 am] The lithium and geothermal developer has met the conditions for its first strategic drawdown on the €2.2 billion ($3.9bn) funding package for its flagship Lionheart project, following financial close in late May.
Received initial equity funds from strategic equity partners, in line with earlier guidance
Funds relate to the €2.2bn ($3.9bn) package for Lionheart, the first phase of production in the Upper Rhine Valley Brine Field spanning Germany and France
Lionheart targets 24,000 tonnes a year of lithium hydroxide, enough for around 500,000 EV batteries, plus 275 GWh of renewable power and 560 GWh of heat annually over an estimated 30-year life
Further drawdowns will continue as conditions are satisfied, as is customary for such arrangements
Company page: Vulcan Energy (VUL)
Rio Tinto flags resilient commodity prices despite Hormuz volatility
[9:20 am] The miner's Q2 markets review pointed to broadly supportive pricing across its core commodities, with the Middle East conflict tightening aluminium and copper acid supply while leaving demand largely intact.
LME copper hit a record $6.39/lb in mid-May on AI-driven electricity demand optimism before easing to around $5.90/lb on a stronger US dollar, while concentrate treatment charges ended the quarter at a record low of -$150/t
Iron ore prices rose 2% in Q2 to $105/dmt, with strong seaborne supply and China's net steel exports up more than 20% quarter-on-quarter to a ~120Mt annualised run rate
Aluminium reached a four-year high in May as Middle East smelter curtailments drove an expected 2026 global deficit, before easing to around $3,150/t, still well above the 2025 average of $2,632/t
Lithium carbonate rose 13% quarter-on-quarter on supply concerns and booming storage demand, with battery storage shipments up 108% year-on-year against EV sales growth of just 1%
Flagged resilient US growth on the AI capital investment boom, while Chinese industrial production slowed to 4.3% in April and May from 6.1% in Q1
Rio Tinto lifts first-half copper equivalent output 3%
[9:15 am] The miner delivered its strongest first-half Pilbara iron ore production since 2018 and sharply cut copper cost guidance, while flagging limited operational impact from Middle East disruption.
Q2 global iron ore production down 1% year-on-year to 87.1Mt vs 89.6Mt ests (3% miss), though Pilbara production of 83.5Mt and shipments of 85.3Mt both beat
First-half copper equivalent production up 3% year-on-year, with Oyu Tolgoi copper up 31% as its ramp-up stayed on track
Copper C1 net unit cost guidance cut to US30-50c/lb from US65-75c/lb on higher gold prices and productivity gains
Q2 copper mined down 7% 213kt beat the 212kt estimate, while lithium LCE of 14.6kt missed 15.2kt and titanium dioxide slag of 227kt missed 268kt
FY26 production and sales guidance unchanged, with Pilbara iron ore unit cash costs held at $23.5-25.0/wmt
Company page: Rio Tinto (RIO)
Experience Co to divest skydive business in Inflite merger
[9:08 am] The adventure tourism operator has signed a non-binding term sheet to fold its Australian and New Zealand skydive and aviation operations into New Zealand's Inflite Group, retaining a minority stake in the combined business.
Would receive roughly $65m in consideration, comprising $41m upfront cash, a $5m vendor note repaid after five years, and a 32.5% equity interest in the merged entity valued at about $19m
The combined aviation-tourism business would have an enterprise value of about $110m on a cash-free, debt-free basis
Inflite shareholders would hold the remaining 67.5%, with EXP to have board representation and customary minority protections
The deal emerged from EXP's strategic review of its Skydive Australia unit, with net proceeds potentially used for debt paydown, reinvestment or capital management
Remains non-binding and subject to due diligence, financier approvals, binding documentation, and shareholder and regulatory approvals, so there is no certainty it will proceed
This is a very interesting transaction, as EXP shares have tumbled 38% year to date, leaving the company with a market cap of just $60 million. The 1H26 result showed $13.3 million in net debt, so enterprise value sits at $73.3 million against the $65 million consideration.
The skydiving business made up 45% of group revenues in the first half ($30.6m of $67.2m), so EXP has effectively sold half the company for a price tag worth nearly all of it. Given the non-binding nature of the deal, management did not comment on what they'd do with proceeds.
Company page: Experience Co (EXP)
Warsh reaffirms price-stability focus in first Congressional testimony
[9:04 am] The new Fed Chair defended central bank independence and offered little policy guidance in his semiannual testimony to the House, with the Senate appearance due tomorrow.
Reaffirmed the commitment to restoring price stability, flagging the difficulty of assessing inflation and labour-market impacts from the rapid pace of AI investment
Parried repeated questions on Fed independence, saying he would pursue the statutory mandate and, if challenged by Trump, "I will do my job"
On the softer June CPI, declined to declare "mission accomplished" and said there is plenty of work to do, while pushing back on the idea that trimmed-mean CPI is his preferred gauge
Described AI as a supply shock arriving faster than he would have projected
On the balance sheet, said he is not seeking a return to pre-GFC levels but sees an equilibrium point below the current level, and signalled a preference for more circumspect communication
US inflation cooler than expected in June
[9:03 am] Both headline and core CPI came in well below consensus, with a sharp drop in energy prices driving the overall decline.
Core CPI flat at 0.0% vs. 0.2% ests and 0.2% prior, taking the annual rate to 2.6% vs. 2.9% expected, the coolest since February 2026
Headline CPI fell 0.4% vs. a 0.1% expected decline and a 0.5% prior gain, with the annual rate at 3.5% vs. 3.9% expected, the coolest since March 2026
Energy fell 5.7% after three months of gains, more than offsetting rises in shelter (up 0.1%) and food (up 0.2%)
Core goods fell 0.1%, extending May's 0.1% decline, while core services were flat after May's 0.3% gain
Car insurance fell 2.0% and apparel dropped 0.6%, while airline fares rose just 0.2% after May's 2.7% jump
The likelihood of more than two 25 bp hikes by year end eased on the CPI print.
Source: CME Fedwatch Tool
BofA survey warns sentiment and AI positioning look stretched
[9:02 am] The July Global Fund Manager Survey showed the most bullish investor sentiment since February, prompting BofA to recommend trimming equity and high-beta exposure.
FMS sentiment most bullish since February on optimism around a macro boom, AI capex and a dovish Fed, with the US equity overweight the largest since December 2024
Cash levels fell 0.5 percentage points to 3.6%, the lowest since February 2026, and the Bull and Bear Indicator hit 9.4, an extreme bull reading
BofA recommended reducing equity and high-beta exposure, warning summer upside for risk assets is stymied by bull positioning
A record 54% saw "no landing" as the most likely outcome, while a net 4% now expect lower global inflation, down from net 45% expecting higher inflation last month
An AI bubble overtook a second inflation wave as the biggest tail risk, and 82% called long global semiconductors the most crowded trade, though a net 48% said AI stocks are not in a bubble
China exports hit record as AI boom and tariff rush lift trade
[9:01 am] June exports grew at their fastest pace since 2021, driven by AI hardware demand and front-loading ahead of expected US tariff hikes, while crude imports slumped to a near-decade low.
Exports up 27% year-on-year to a record $412bn, the strongest since October 2021 and well ahead of the 18.2% expected, quickening from 19.4% in May
Imports up 36%, the largest jump since June 2021 and above the 24% expected, taking the trade surplus to $125.6bn
Semiconductor exports up 122% in dollar terms, though volumes fell 0.4%, with chip prices up as much as 700% over the past year distorting the figures
Car exports topped 1 million vehicles in a month for the first time, with value up 70%, while ship exports rose 42%
Crude imports fell 41% to about 29 million tons, the lowest in nearly a decade, which analysts attribute to inventory drawdowns rather than weaker demand
EU surplus widened 27% to a record $32.9bn, sharpening trade tensions with Europe ahead of Q2 GDP, expected to slow to 4.5%
US-Iran truce collapses as blockade and strikes resume
[8:57 am] Washington reimposed its naval blockade of Iranian ports and launched a fourth straight day of strikes, while Trump reversed his 20% Hormuz cargo fee under Gulf pressure, leaving oil near a one-month high.
The US resumed its naval blockade of Iranian ports from 4pm Washington time and struck Bandar Abbas and sites near Sirik, while Iran hit tankers and attacked US allies including Kuwait, where four service members were wounded
Trump dropped his proposed 20% cargo fee a day after announcing it, saying Gulf states would instead make direct US investments, though at least one regional government said it had not agreed to increase existing commitments
Trump threatened to hit Iranian power plants and bridges "next week" absent talks, while Iran's deputy foreign minister said Tehran has "no obligations" left under last month's memorandum
US and European fuel markets are flashing record tightness, with European diesel refining margins at their highest since at least 2011 and the US 3-2-1 crack spread at a record
Cybersecurity stocks rally as IBM flags AI-driven spending shift
[8:52 am] Cyber names jumped after IBM's CEO said customers are pausing deals to rethink security budgets amid fears that advanced AI models make attacks faster and more sophisticated.
Cyber names traded broadly higher, with notable gains for Crowdstrike (+12.1%), Okta (+10.8%), Zscaler (+7.2%), Palo Alto (+6.8%) and Cloudflare (+4.5%)
IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said "rapidly-evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns" distracted customers and put some major deals on hold late in the quarter
Krishna pointed to Anthropic's Mythos model prompting customers to reassess spending: "They're pausing on new deals until they know"
IBM slumps 25% on preliminary Q2 miss
[8:50 am] The company pre-announced revenue and profit below its own expectations as mainframe and software sales disappointed and large deals slipped, with full results due 22 July.
Revenue up 1% to $17.2bn vs $17.86bn ests (4% miss)
Non-GAAP EPS of $2.93, up 5% year-on-year, with year-to-date free cash flow of $4.8bn
Software up 5%, consulting flat (up 1% in constant currency) and infrastructure down 7%
CEO Arvind Krishna: "This quarter we faltered... we did not adapt and move quickly enough," citing large deals failing to close on time
On the demand shift: "In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases"
Krishna said IBM "did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritisation" and that clients were distracted by "rapidly-evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns"
Bank of America rises on trading and banking strength
[8:50 am] Markets and investment banking powered a double-digit revenue beat, with trading revenue up a third and equities up 70%.
Revenue up 15% to $31.56bn vs $30.49bn ests (4% beat)
EPS of $1.21 vs $1.13 ests (7% beat), up 34% year-on-year
Trading revenue ex-DVA up 33% to $7.16bn vs $6.21bn ests (15% beat), led by equities up 70% to $3.62bn
Investment banking revenue up 50% to $2.14bn vs $1.87bn ests (14% beat)
Global Markets revenue up 34% to $8.0bn, with net interest income up 9% to $16.16bn
Returned $8.0bn to shareholders through $2.0bn in dividends and $6.0bn in buybacks, with a CET1 ratio of 11.2%
JPMorgan beats as every business hits record revenue
[8:46 am] Trading and investment banking drove a large revenue and profit beat, with EPS boosted by significant items and a new $50bn buyback authorised. Shares opened 2.2% lower but clawed back early losses to finish 2.5% higher, at fresh all-time highs.
Revenue up 27% to $58.02bn vs $51.39bn ests (13% beat)
EPS of $7.70 vs $5.72 ests (35% beat), including $1.56 a share from significant items
Net income up 41% to $21.2bn, with ROE of 24% versus 18% expected
Equities trading up 86% to $6.03bn vs $3.98bn ests (52% beat), with investment banking up 45% to $3.9bn vs $3.06bn ests (27% beat)
Commercial and Investment Bank revenue up 27% to $24.85bn, with net interest income up 10% to $25.62bn
Authorised a new $50bn buyback effective 1 July, alongside $6.2bn of net repurchases in the quarter and a $1.50 dividend
Goldman Sachs jumps on trading-led earnings blowout
[8:45 am] A surge in equities and investment banking drove a huge beat, with net revenue up 39% and EPS nearly doubling. The stock opened the session 3.7% higher and surged intraday to close up 9.0% at fresh all-time highs.
Net revenue up 39% to $20.34bn vs $16.35bn ests (24% beat)
EPS of $20.98 vs $14.45 ests (45% beat), up 92% year-on-year
Net earnings up 78% to $6.63bn, with ROE of 23.5%
Global Banking and Markets up 53% to $15.52bn vs $11.8bn ests (32% beat), led by equities up 72% to $7.42bn and FICC up 32% to $4.59bn
Investment banking fees up 55% to $3.40bn vs $2.88bn ests (18% beat)
Raised the quarterly dividend to $5.00 a share and returned $5.36bn in the quarter
Citi posts best quarterly revenue in a decade
[8:44 am] Broad-based strength across markets, banking and wealth drove a large earnings beat, with management launching a $30 billion buyback and flagging a dividend increase. Citi shares briefly rallied 2.5% but finished the session 5.2% lower.
Revenue up 14% to $24.77bn vs $23.6bn ests (5% beat)
EPS of $3.15 vs $2.75 ests (15% beat), up from $1.96 a year ago
Net income up 45% to $5.8bn
Markets revenue up 17% to $7.01bn vs $6.45bn ests (9% beat), led by equities up 45% to $2.30bn
Banking revenue up 34% to $1.92bn vs $1.75bn ests (10% beat), with investment banking up 44% to $1.55bn
Launched a $30bn buyback and flagged a 12% dividend increase, alongside a CET1 ratio of 12.8% and RoTCE of 13.0%
Lucid whipsaws 56% intraday on bankruptcy speculation
[8:43 am] Shares plunged on a report the EV maker was weighing going private or Chapter 11, then pared losses after the company denied it and said it has liquidity well into next year.
Fell as much as 56% intraday before finishing the session down 16%
The initial report said restructuring adviser AlixPartners had been asked to present findings to the board, with options including a private takeover or Chapter 11, though no decision had been made
Lucid denied the report, saying it has sufficient liquidity to fund operations well into next year and that AlixPartners had not recommended bankruptcy to management or the board
Lucid has been burning roughly $1bn a quarter, suspended its 2026 production guidance, and recently drew US$800m from a Saudi-backed term loan
Stocks rise as soft inflation cools Fed hike bets
[8:42 am] June CPI came in well below expectations, easing near-term rate hike fears and lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, though September hike odds remain elevated.
S&P 500 closed up 0.38% at 7,543.59 and the Nasdaq gained 0.9% to 26,107.01, while the Dow added just 9.63 points to 52,508.27
June CPI fell 0.4% on the month against expectations of a 0.2% decline, taking annual inflation to 3.5% versus the 3.8% expected
Odds of a July Fed hike dropped to 17% from 42% a day earlier, though traders still price a near 60% chance of a hike by September
Semiconductors rebounded, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF up 2.5%, Lam Research and Micron up around 5%, and Applied Materials and Teradyne up more than 3%
Goldman Sachs jumped 9% on an earnings beat, while JPMorgan and Bank of America both rose around 2% on their Q2 results
Good morning!
[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are up 49 pts (+0.55%).
The overnight session in a nutshell:
Major US benchmarks finished higher after cooler-than-expected US inflation eased near-term Fed rate-hike fears, though a record collapse in IBM capped the Dow
IBM crashed 25%, its worst day on record after the company pre-announced its Q2 results, with revenues coming in well-below estimates on a shortfall led by software and infrastructure performance
IBM management said “Discretionary IT spending is worsening and will likely be the main theme across most software companies,” also noting that clients faced “rapidly evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns.”
Oil held near a one-month high and the US began a naval blockade of Iranian ports as Iran struck two UAE tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
Commodity prices traded broadly higher on the CPI print, driving strong gains for copper, lithium and gold equities overnight
