ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 15th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, July 15. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Kingsgate restores ~50% of Chatree's Plant 1 capacity

[9:45 am] The gold miner has restarted the modified Plant 1 at its Chatree operation in Thailand after isolating the Ball Mill and recommissioning SAG Mill 1.

• Modified Plant 1 ran continuously during a successful trial at about 105-110 wet tonnes per hour

• Power draw held below capacity at about 2.3 MW, allowing throughput to lift to roughly 130 wet tonnes per hour, or about 1.1Mtpa equivalent

• The initiatives bring total Chatree processing capacity back above 4Mtpa while Ball Mill 1 remediation continues

The mechanical failure was announced on Monday 13 July, driving Kingsgate shares 27% lower over the last two sessions.

Company page: Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN)

Amplitude Energy sets FY26 records despite soft Q4 revenue

[9:38 am] The gas producer posted annual production, revenue and realised price records, though a brief period of weak winter spot prices dragged fourth-quarter revenue below estimates.

• Q4 revenue of $70.3m vs $75.6m ests (7% miss), on soft early-winter spot gas prices

• Q4 production of 6.81 PJe beat 6.66 PJe ests, though realised oil and condensate price of $118.9/GJ fell well short of $156.8/GJ expected

• FY26 production of 27.6 PJe, up 3%, a group record, with revenue up 7% to $285.8m and the realised gas price up 4% to $10.35/GJ

• Orbost Gas Processing Plant produced a record 24.3 PJ over FY26, up 7%, with new daily highs set post quarter end

• Acquired the Artisan gas field from Beach Energy, consolidating resources to underpin East Coast Supply Project economics

• Ended FY26 with net debt of $37.2m, with the Juliet prospect due to spud in late July or early August and development FID expected in Q1 FY27

Company page: Amplitude Energy (AEL)

Evolution Mining meets FY26 guidance despite soft Q4 output

[9:34 am] The gold miner delivered record annual cash flow and moved to a net cash position, though June-quarter production and costs missed estimates.

• Q4 gold production of 180koz vs 188.4koz ests (4% miss)

• Q4 copper production of 19kt broadly in line at 19.2kt expected

• Q4 AISC of $1,706/oz vs $1,569/oz ests (9% higher)

  • Though improved 23% quarter-on-quarter

• Realised gold price of $5,928/oz

• FY26 group production of 715koz gold and 66kt copper at a sector-leading AISC of $1,717/oz, meeting guidance

• Record FY26 group cash flow of $1,389m at a $1,958/oz margin, ending fully unhedged with a net cash balance of $1,347m

• Flagged FY27 AISC inflation of 4-5% ($150-160/oz) and sustaining capital $50-60m above FY26, with full guidance due 19 August

Company page: Evolution Mining (EVN)

Webjet names Nicole Sheffield as new managing director and CEO

[9:33 am] The online travel group has appointed the former Wesfarmers OneDigital boss as its permanent chief, effective 20 July, ending an interim arrangement in place since May.

• Sheffield takes over from acting CEO Layton Shannos, who stepped in after the former MD and CEO resigned in late May

• Brings more than 25 years across commercial growth, digital innovation and transformation at major Australian consumer and technology businesses

• Most recently led Wesfarmers OneDigital, overseeing the OnePass membership program, the Catch marketplace and the group's data platform

• Previously held senior roles at Australia Post, News Corp Australia and Seven West Media, alongside board positions including chair of the Australian Retail Council

Company page: Webjet Group (WJL)

Drilling results across Dateline, Strickland and Brightstar

[9:31 am] Three ASX-listed explorers reported resource and exploration updates spanning US rare earths, a Serbian gold-copper project and a growing Western Australian gold hub.

• Dateline Resources returned rare earth assays up to 7.1% (71,300 ppm) TREO from surface sampling at its Music Valley project in California, with all 33 samples anomalous across three target areas

• The NW Target proved the most consistent, with 11 samples over a ~200m strike ranging from 0.68% to 1.09% TREO, supporting follow-up mapping and drill target definition

• Strickland Metals lifted its Copper Canyon inferred resource to 0.82Moz gold equivalent (16Mt at 1.6g/t AuEq), a ~290koz gold increase versus 2021, taking the total Rogozna project in Serbia to 9.25Moz AuEq

• The deposit was economically constrained using a US$3,000/oz gold price and US$12,000/t copper price, with Strickland well-funded at about $81m cash as at 31 March

• Brightstar Resources grew its Sandstone gold resource 18% to 2.9Moz (69Mt at 1.3g/t Au), with the measured and indicated component up 113% to 1.1Moz, lifting the group total to 4.5Moz

• A second Sandstone resource update is due in Q4 CY26 alongside the project's PFS and maiden ore reserve, with four rigs currently active

Company page: Dateline (DTR), Strickland (STK) and Brightstar (BTR

Macmahon wins $355m Mt Marion underground contract

[9:29 am] The mining services contractor has secured an initial three-year deal for underground development and production at the Mt Marion lithium operation in Western Australia.

• Contract valued at $355m over an initial three years, with an option to extend by a further year

• Covers all underground development and production mining at Mt Marion, located 70km south of Kalgoorlie

• Mt Marion is owned 50/50 by Mineral Resources and Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium

Company page: Macmahon Holdings (MAH)

Alcoa to build gallium plant in trilateral critical minerals push

[9:28 am] Australia, Japan, the United States and Alcoa have reached a final investment decision on a gallium production facility at the company's Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia, aimed at diversifying supply of the strategically concentrated mineral.

• Alcoa will construct and operate the plant, co-located at Wagerup, leveraging its alumina refining and mineral processing experience

• Gallium is a critical mineral used in semiconductors and defence applications, with global supply currently highly concentrated

• The facility is backed by the governments and industry partners of Australia, Japan and the US to strengthen critical mineral supply chains

• Construction will begin following final site preparations, with Alcoa's participation not expected to materially affect its financial position or results

Company page: Alcoa (AAI)

Vulcan Energy receives first equity funds from Lionheart backers

[9:22 am] The lithium and geothermal developer has met the conditions for its first strategic drawdown on the €2.2 billion ($3.9bn) funding package for its flagship Lionheart project, following financial close in late May.

• Received initial equity funds from strategic equity partners, in line with earlier guidance

• Funds relate to the €2.2bn ($3.9bn) package for Lionheart, the first phase of production in the Upper Rhine Valley Brine Field spanning Germany and France

• Lionheart targets 24,000 tonnes a year of lithium hydroxide, enough for around 500,000 EV batteries, plus 275 GWh of renewable power and 560 GWh of heat annually over an estimated 30-year life

• Further drawdowns will continue as conditions are satisfied, as is customary for such arrangements

Company page: Vulcan Energy (VUL)

Rio Tinto flags resilient commodity prices despite Hormuz volatility

[9:20 am] The miner's Q2 markets review pointed to broadly supportive pricing across its core commodities, with the Middle East conflict tightening aluminium and copper acid supply while leaving demand largely intact.

• LME copper hit a record $6.39/lb in mid-May on AI-driven electricity demand optimism before easing to around $5.90/lb on a stronger US dollar, while concentrate treatment charges ended the quarter at a record low of -$150/t

• Iron ore prices rose 2% in Q2 to $105/dmt, with strong seaborne supply and China's net steel exports up more than 20% quarter-on-quarter to a ~120Mt annualised run rate

• Aluminium reached a four-year high in May as Middle East smelter curtailments drove an expected 2026 global deficit, before easing to around $3,150/t, still well above the 2025 average of $2,632/t

• Lithium carbonate rose 13% quarter-on-quarter on supply concerns and booming storage demand, with battery storage shipments up 108% year-on-year against EV sales growth of just 1%

• Flagged resilient US growth on the AI capital investment boom, while Chinese industrial production slowed to 4.3% in April and May from 6.1% in Q1

Rio Tinto lifts first-half copper equivalent output 3%

[9:15 am] The miner delivered its strongest first-half Pilbara iron ore production since 2018 and sharply cut copper cost guidance, while flagging limited operational impact from Middle East disruption.

• Q2 global iron ore production down 1% year-on-year to 87.1Mt vs 89.6Mt ests (3% miss), though Pilbara production of 83.5Mt and shipments of 85.3Mt both beat

• First-half copper equivalent production up 3% year-on-year, with Oyu Tolgoi copper up 31% as its ramp-up stayed on track

• Copper C1 net unit cost guidance cut to US30-50c/lb from US65-75c/lb on higher gold prices and productivity gains

• Q2 copper mined down 7% 213kt beat the 212kt estimate, while lithium LCE of 14.6kt missed 15.2kt and titanium dioxide slag of 227kt missed 268kt

• FY26 production and sales guidance unchanged, with Pilbara iron ore unit cash costs held at $23.5-25.0/wmt

Company page: Rio Tinto (RIO)

Experience Co to divest skydive business in Inflite merger

[9:08 am] The adventure tourism operator has signed a non-binding term sheet to fold its Australian and New Zealand skydive and aviation operations into New Zealand's Inflite Group, retaining a minority stake in the combined business.

• Would receive roughly $65m in consideration, comprising $41m upfront cash, a $5m vendor note repaid after five years, and a 32.5% equity interest in the merged entity valued at about $19m

• The combined aviation-tourism business would have an enterprise value of about $110m on a cash-free, debt-free basis

• Inflite shareholders would hold the remaining 67.5%, with EXP to have board representation and customary minority protections

• The deal emerged from EXP's strategic review of its Skydive Australia unit, with net proceeds potentially used for debt paydown, reinvestment or capital management

• Remains non-binding and subject to due diligence, financier approvals, binding documentation, and shareholder and regulatory approvals, so there is no certainty it will proceed

This is a very interesting transaction, as EXP shares have tumbled 38% year to date, leaving the company with a market cap of just $60 million. The 1H26 result showed $13.3 million in net debt, so enterprise value sits at $73.3 million against the $65 million consideration.

The skydiving business made up 45% of group revenues in the first half ($30.6m of $67.2m), so EXP has effectively sold half the company for a price tag worth nearly all of it. Given the non-binding nature of the deal, management did not comment on what they'd do with proceeds.

Company page: Experience Co (EXP)

Warsh reaffirms price-stability focus in first Congressional testimony

[9:04 am] The new Fed Chair defended central bank independence and offered little policy guidance in his semiannual testimony to the House, with the Senate appearance due tomorrow.

• Reaffirmed the commitment to restoring price stability, flagging the difficulty of assessing inflation and labour-market impacts from the rapid pace of AI investment

• Parried repeated questions on Fed independence, saying he would pursue the statutory mandate and, if challenged by Trump, "I will do my job"

• On the softer June CPI, declined to declare "mission accomplished" and said there is plenty of work to do, while pushing back on the idea that trimmed-mean CPI is his preferred gauge

• Described AI as a supply shock arriving faster than he would have projected

• On the balance sheet, said he is not seeking a return to pre-GFC levels but sees an equilibrium point below the current level, and signalled a preference for more circumspect communication

US inflation cooler than expected in June

[9:03 am] Both headline and core CPI came in well below consensus, with a sharp drop in energy prices driving the overall decline.

• Core CPI flat at 0.0% vs. 0.2% ests and 0.2% prior, taking the annual rate to 2.6% vs. 2.9% expected, the coolest since February 2026

• Headline CPI fell 0.4% vs. a 0.1% expected decline and a 0.5% prior gain, with the annual rate at 3.5% vs. 3.9% expected, the coolest since March 2026

• Energy fell 5.7% after three months of gains, more than offsetting rises in shelter (up 0.1%) and food (up 0.2%)

• Core goods fell 0.1%, extending May's 0.1% decline, while core services were flat after May's 0.3% gain

• Car insurance fell 2.0% and apparel dropped 0.6%, while airline fares rose just 0.2% after May's 2.7% jump

The likelihood of more than two 25 bp hikes by year end eased on the CPI print.

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

BofA survey warns sentiment and AI positioning look stretched

[9:02 am] The July Global Fund Manager Survey showed the most bullish investor sentiment since February, prompting BofA to recommend trimming equity and high-beta exposure.

• FMS sentiment most bullish since February on optimism around a macro boom, AI capex and a dovish Fed, with the US equity overweight the largest since December 2024

• Cash levels fell 0.5 percentage points to 3.6%, the lowest since February 2026, and the Bull and Bear Indicator hit 9.4, an extreme bull reading

• BofA recommended reducing equity and high-beta exposure, warning summer upside for risk assets is stymied by bull positioning

• A record 54% saw "no landing" as the most likely outcome, while a net 4% now expect lower global inflation, down from net 45% expecting higher inflation last month

• An AI bubble overtook a second inflation wave as the biggest tail risk, and 82% called long global semiconductors the most crowded trade, though a net 48% said AI stocks are not in a bubble

China exports hit record as AI boom and tariff rush lift trade

[9:01 am] June exports grew at their fastest pace since 2021, driven by AI hardware demand and front-loading ahead of expected US tariff hikes, while crude imports slumped to a near-decade low.

• Exports up 27% year-on-year to a record $412bn, the strongest since October 2021 and well ahead of the 18.2% expected, quickening from 19.4% in May

• Imports up 36%, the largest jump since June 2021 and above the 24% expected, taking the trade surplus to $125.6bn

• Semiconductor exports up 122% in dollar terms, though volumes fell 0.4%, with chip prices up as much as 700% over the past year distorting the figures

• Car exports topped 1 million vehicles in a month for the first time, with value up 70%, while ship exports rose 42%

• Crude imports fell 41% to about 29 million tons, the lowest in nearly a decade, which analysts attribute to inventory drawdowns rather than weaker demand

• EU surplus widened 27% to a record $32.9bn, sharpening trade tensions with Europe ahead of Q2 GDP, expected to slow to 4.5%

US-Iran truce collapses as blockade and strikes resume

[8:57 am] Washington reimposed its naval blockade of Iranian ports and launched a fourth straight day of strikes, while Trump reversed his 20% Hormuz cargo fee under Gulf pressure, leaving oil near a one-month high.

• The US resumed its naval blockade of Iranian ports from 4pm Washington time and struck Bandar Abbas and sites near Sirik, while Iran hit tankers and attacked US allies including Kuwait, where four service members were wounded

• Trump dropped his proposed 20% cargo fee a day after announcing it, saying Gulf states would instead make direct US investments, though at least one regional government said it had not agreed to increase existing commitments

• Trump threatened to hit Iranian power plants and bridges "next week" absent talks, while Iran's deputy foreign minister said Tehran has "no obligations" left under last month's memorandum

• US and European fuel markets are flashing record tightness, with European diesel refining margins at their highest since at least 2011 and the US 3-2-1 crack spread at a record

Cybersecurity stocks rally as IBM flags AI-driven spending shift

[8:52 am] Cyber names jumped after IBM's CEO said customers are pausing deals to rethink security budgets amid fears that advanced AI models make attacks faster and more sophisticated.

• Cyber names traded broadly higher, with notable gains for Crowdstrike (+12.1%), Okta (+10.8%), Zscaler (+7.2%), Palo Alto (+6.8%) and Cloudflare (+4.5%)

• IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said "rapidly-evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns" distracted customers and put some major deals on hold late in the quarter

• Krishna pointed to Anthropic's Mythos model prompting customers to reassess spending: "They're pausing on new deals until they know"

IBM slumps 25% on preliminary Q2 miss

[8:50 am] The company pre-announced revenue and profit below its own expectations as mainframe and software sales disappointed and large deals slipped, with full results due 22 July.

• Revenue up 1% to $17.2bn vs $17.86bn ests (4% miss)

• Non-GAAP EPS of $2.93, up 5% year-on-year, with year-to-date free cash flow of $4.8bn

• Software up 5%, consulting flat (up 1% in constant currency) and infrastructure down 7%

• CEO Arvind Krishna: "This quarter we faltered... we did not adapt and move quickly enough," citing large deals failing to close on time

• On the demand shift: "In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases"

• Krishna said IBM "did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritisation" and that clients were distracted by "rapidly-evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns"

Bank of America rises on trading and banking strength

[8:50 am] Markets and investment banking powered a double-digit revenue beat, with trading revenue up a third and equities up 70%.

• Revenue up 15% to $31.56bn vs $30.49bn ests (4% beat)

• EPS of $1.21 vs $1.13 ests (7% beat), up 34% year-on-year

• Trading revenue ex-DVA up 33% to $7.16bn vs $6.21bn ests (15% beat), led by equities up 70% to $3.62bn

• Investment banking revenue up 50% to $2.14bn vs $1.87bn ests (14% beat)

• Global Markets revenue up 34% to $8.0bn, with net interest income up 9% to $16.16bn

• Returned $8.0bn to shareholders through $2.0bn in dividends and $6.0bn in buybacks, with a CET1 ratio of 11.2%

JPMorgan beats as every business hits record revenue

[8:46 am] Trading and investment banking drove a large revenue and profit beat, with EPS boosted by significant items and a new $50bn buyback authorised. Shares opened 2.2% lower but clawed back early losses to finish 2.5% higher, at fresh all-time highs.

• Revenue up 27% to $58.02bn vs $51.39bn ests (13% beat)

• EPS of $7.70 vs $5.72 ests (35% beat), including $1.56 a share from significant items

• Net income up 41% to $21.2bn, with ROE of 24% versus 18% expected

• Equities trading up 86% to $6.03bn vs $3.98bn ests (52% beat), with investment banking up 45% to $3.9bn vs $3.06bn ests (27% beat)

• Commercial and Investment Bank revenue up 27% to $24.85bn, with net interest income up 10% to $25.62bn

• Authorised a new $50bn buyback effective 1 July, alongside $6.2bn of net repurchases in the quarter and a $1.50 dividend

Goldman Sachs jumps on trading-led earnings blowout

[8:45 am] A surge in equities and investment banking drove a huge beat, with net revenue up 39% and EPS nearly doubling. The stock opened the session 3.7% higher and surged intraday to close up 9.0% at fresh all-time highs.

• Net revenue up 39% to $20.34bn vs $16.35bn ests (24% beat)

• EPS of $20.98 vs $14.45 ests (45% beat), up 92% year-on-year

• Net earnings up 78% to $6.63bn, with ROE of 23.5%

• Global Banking and Markets up 53% to $15.52bn vs $11.8bn ests (32% beat), led by equities up 72% to $7.42bn and FICC up 32% to $4.59bn

• Investment banking fees up 55% to $3.40bn vs $2.88bn ests (18% beat)

• Raised the quarterly dividend to $5.00 a share and returned $5.36bn in the quarter

Citi posts best quarterly revenue in a decade

[8:44 am] Broad-based strength across markets, banking and wealth drove a large earnings beat, with management launching a $30 billion buyback and flagging a dividend increase. Citi shares briefly rallied 2.5% but finished the session 5.2% lower.

• Revenue up 14% to $24.77bn vs $23.6bn ests (5% beat)

• EPS of $3.15 vs $2.75 ests (15% beat), up from $1.96 a year ago

• Net income up 45% to $5.8bn

• Markets revenue up 17% to $7.01bn vs $6.45bn ests (9% beat), led by equities up 45% to $2.30bn

• Banking revenue up 34% to $1.92bn vs $1.75bn ests (10% beat), with investment banking up 44% to $1.55bn

• Launched a $30bn buyback and flagged a 12% dividend increase, alongside a CET1 ratio of 12.8% and RoTCE of 13.0%

Lucid whipsaws 56% intraday on bankruptcy speculation

[8:43 am] Shares plunged on a report the EV maker was weighing going private or Chapter 11, then pared losses after the company denied it and said it has liquidity well into next year.

• Fell as much as 56% intraday before finishing the session down 16%

• The initial report said restructuring adviser AlixPartners had been asked to present findings to the board, with options including a private takeover or Chapter 11, though no decision had been made

• Lucid denied the report, saying it has sufficient liquidity to fund operations well into next year and that AlixPartners had not recommended bankruptcy to management or the board

• Lucid has been burning roughly $1bn a quarter, suspended its 2026 production guidance, and recently drew US$800m from a Saudi-backed term loan

Stocks rise as soft inflation cools Fed hike bets

[8:42 am] June CPI came in well below expectations, easing near-term rate hike fears and lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, though September hike odds remain elevated.

• S&P 500 closed up 0.38% at 7,543.59 and the Nasdaq gained 0.9% to 26,107.01, while the Dow added just 9.63 points to 52,508.27

• June CPI fell 0.4% on the month against expectations of a 0.2% decline, taking annual inflation to 3.5% versus the 3.8% expected

• Odds of a July Fed hike dropped to 17% from 42% a day earlier, though traders still price a near 60% chance of a hike by September

• Semiconductors rebounded, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF up 2.5%, Lam Research and Micron up around 5%, and Applied Materials and Teradyne up more than 3%

• Goldman Sachs jumped 9% on an earnings beat, while JPMorgan and Bank of America both rose around 2% on their Q2 results

Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are up 49 pts (+0.55%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished higher after cooler-than-expected US inflation eased near-term Fed rate-hike fears, though a record collapse in IBM capped the Dow

• IBM crashed 25%, its worst day on record after the company pre-announced its Q2 results, with revenues coming in well-below estimates on a shortfall led by software and infrastructure performance

• IBM management said “Discretionary IT spending is worsening and will likely be the main theme across most software companies,” also noting that clients faced “rapidly evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns.”

• Oil held near a one-month high and the US began a naval blockade of Iranian ports as Iran struck two UAE tankers in the Strait of Hormuz

• Commodity prices traded broadly higher on the CPI print, driving strong gains for copper, lithium and gold equities overnight