ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 14th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, October 14. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Rio Tinto holds guidance as capital release tops US$2bn

[9:14 am] Rio Tinto maintained all production and unit cost guidance in its Q3 production update, with Oyu Tolgoi copper and Pilbara iron ore driving the quarter.

• Copper production flat at 205kt, taking year-to-date output to 646kt against unchanged 2026 guidance of 800kt to 870kt

• Oyu Tolgoi production up 27% in Q3, with the mine running at a roughly 450kt annualised rate

• Pilbara iron ore sales up 2% to 85.7Mt, with 2026 guidance of 323Mt to 338Mt unchanged

• Simandou reached a roughly 10Mtpa annualised run-rate and remains on track for 60Mtpa during 2H 2028

• Lithium production up 4% to 13.0kt LCE, with 2026 guidance of 61kt to 64kt now expected at the lower end

• Pilbara cost pressures with diesel adding US$1.1/t and the stronger Australian dollar about US$1.0/t to full-year unit costs, though guidance is maintained

• Capital release above US$2bn year-to-date, including the Dampier desalination plant sale and Kitimat land sale to LNG Canada, towards an initial US$5bn target

Company page: Rio Tinto (RIO)

Rio Tinto flags record-low copper TCs and weaker China steel demand

[9:13 am] Rio Tinto’s quarterly market review points to tight copper and aluminium markets, while softer Chinese steel demand weighs on iron ore.

• Copper hit a record of US$14,850/t on the LME in mid-August, averaging US$14,110/t for the quarter

• Copper TCs at a record low of -US$267/t as the concentrate market remained extremely tight

• Iron ore steady around US$97/dmt, with higher freight costs squeezing netbacks for long-haul Atlantic supply

• China steel consumption estimated down about 4% quarter-on-quarter and 2% year-on-year, partly offset by exports rising 3% to a 122Mt annualised rate

• Aluminium in deficit with LME prices averaging US$3,226/t, 23% above the 2025 average

• Lithium carbonate averaged about US$19,000/t, with battery storage shipments up 94% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2026

Company page: Rio Tinto (RIO)

Finbar to book Garden Towers settlements in 1H FY27

[9:12 am] Finbar’s largest development by lot count has been completed and titled, with settlements set to flow into first-half FY27 earnings.

• Settlements commence with most expected within 14 days of titles being issued and revenue recognised in 1H FY27

• 82% sold with 279 of 342 lots sold for $210m, leaving 56 apartments and seven commercial lots

• End value of about $296.9m for the 50:50 joint venture with Ventrade, a subsidiary of largest shareholder Chuan Hup

• Tax settings CEO Ronald Chan said “the continued availability of negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions” is expected to support Perth apartment demand

• $1.95bn pipeline over five years, with the recent Parkside Residences launch in Rivervale achieving 27 sales

Company page: Finbar Group (FRI)

Fletcher Building volumes lift but residential remains a drag

[9:12 am] Fletcher Building’s core businesses lifted volumes across most units in its Q1 volume update, though Residential & Development remains weak.

• Light Building Products volumes up across every unit on the pcp, led by Fletcher Insulation up 13.6% and Iplex NZ up 13.1%

• Pipeline volumes softer with Iplex NZ down 5.1% on Q4 FY26 as customers worked through stock bought ahead of Q4 price increases

• Heavy Building Materials led by Dimond up 18.2% and ColorCote up 16.2% on the pcp, while Golden Bay Cement rose 2.0%

• PlaceMakers frame and truss sales up 16.0% on the pcp

• Residential units of 54 taken to profit, with rolling 12-month volumes down 38.6% and minimal contribution expected towards half-year earnings

• Outlook uncertain with inflation and interest rates delaying the start of new commercial and residential projects

Company page: Fletcher Building (FBU)

Mercury trading margin up 19% despite dry Waikato inflows

[9:08 am] New wind and geothermal capacity helped Mercury offset historically dry Waikato conditions in its Q1 trading update. At the time of writing, NZX-listed Mercury shares are down 0.2% to NZ$6.76.

• Trading margin up 19% to NZ$445m

• Generation volume down 1% to 2,526GWh, with 307GWh of new wind and geothermal output mostly offsetting lower hydro

• Hydro generation down 24% or 332GWh, with Waikato inflows at the 2nd percentile vs the 71st percentile a year earlier

• Kaiwera Downs Stage 2 is now at full generation, with the NZ$486m project adding 155MW from 36 turbines. All 12 turbines are installed at Kaiwaikawe

• FY27 capex of about NZ$150m stay-in-business and NZ$300m to NZ$400m growth

• FY27 EBITDAF guidance reaffirmed, with Mercury on track based on its current outlook

Company page: Mercury NZ (MCY)

Fed’s Williams backs one more hike, sees no need for more in 2027

[9:02 am] New York Fed President John Williams said he still expects one more rate hike this year but sees no reason for further tightening in 2027, pulling Treasury yields lower ahead of Wednesday’s CPI print.

• One more hike “I haven’t changed my view that it may be appropriate to have one more rate hike,” Williams said, after the Fed lifted rates to 3.75% to 4.00% in September

• Inflation near 2% next year as tariff and energy shocks fade, with Williams adding “this is not an economy that is overheating overall”

• Near neutral Williams pegs the real neutral rate at 1% “or a little above,” saying “we’re not that far from neutral”

• Market pricing with futures implying a December hike and two more in 2027, while Hammack and Logan see more than one further move needed

• Waller on yields saying the surge in long-term yields is curbing housing and auto demand and “doing a little bit of the work”

• AI inflation Waller warned the AI build-out is bidding up semiconductor prices, with pressures that could last two or three years

Fund managers want 5.9% Treasury yields before ditching stocks

[9:02 am] Fund managers say 10-year Treasury yields would need to hit 5.9% before they rotate from stocks into bonds, according to BofA’s latest survey.

• 5.9% threshold vs the 10-year yield of 5.22% on Tuesday

• Bond yields top tail risk with 32% citing a disorderly rise in yields, ahead of 23% for an AI bubble

• AI bubble split as 45% expect an AI bubble in 2027 and 42% do not

• Pullback warnings have emerged on rapidly rising yields, high oil prices, AI risks and weak market breadth

Source: Yahoo Finance

Iran escalates Hormuz attacks as Houthis target Saudi Arabia

[9:01 am] Middle East hostilities are widening, with Iranian attacks on Hormuz shipping and Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia threatening the recent recovery in Gulf oil exports.

• Brent up 0.3% to US$106.30 a barrel

• Four tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz on 11 October, roughly double the prior week’s daily average (UKMTO)

• Tankers turning back with more than a dozen supertankers and several Suezmax vessels reversing course near Fujairah

• Gulf flows had recovered to about 80% of pre-conflict levels last week according to Shell’s CEO, with Vitol estimating 12m barrels a day of crude exiting Hormuz

• Houthi strikes on Riyadh’s main airport killed 13 on Saturday, with the group threatening Aramco’s headquarters and a Riyadh refinery

• Trump warns Houthis accusing them of targeting Saudi Arabia to lift oil prices before the 3 November midterms, and said US forces may join the Saudi campaign

• Israel weighs Iran strike after Netanyahu and Trump discussed a major new operation before the Israeli and US elections, citing signs Iran is rebuilding its nuclear programme

IMF lifts 2026 global growth forecast but warns of split outlook

[9:00 am] The IMF nudged its 2026 global growth forecast higher on advanced economy resilience, but warned energy importers outside the AI boom remain exposed to the war-driven price shock.

• Growth upgraded by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.5% in 2025

• Bifurcated outlook with AI investment buoying advanced economies while poorer energy importers face stark choices

• Fuel prices with refined petroleum products still 70% to 95% above pre-war levels

• Downside risks “The global economy has been resilient, but that resilience is under strain, with risks tilted to the downside,” said chief economist Silvana Tenreyro

• Complacency warning from Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, as the IMF urged governments to rein in spending given elevated debt levels

Nvidia pledges another US$2bn for European AI push

[8:59 am] Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced US$2bn in new European investments during a tour that included a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron.

• US$2bn pledge on top of the US$8bn Nvidia has invested in Europe over the past year

• French startups receiving new funding include Doctolib, Genesis AI, Pigment and Entalpic

• Open models pitched as Europe’s path to catch up, with partner Mistral’s latest model trained on 4,000 Grace Blackwell chips

Source: Bloomberg

Beats won’t be enough this AI earnings season

[8:52 am] With Q3 beats now expected, investors will be looking for confidence that AI-driven growth can carry into 2027.

• S&P 500 Q3 earnings forecast to surge over 30%, driven largely by AI-related tech (LSEG)

• Beats are the status quo after two quarters of big positive surprises, according to BofA strategist Savita Subramanian

• Hyperscaler capex from the top five on pace to grow more than 110% year-on-year in Q3

• AI dependence “Ultimately, index [EPS] remains highly dependent on the durability of the AI capex cycle and successful monetization,” Subramanian wrote

• Valuation with the S&P 500 trading under 19 times forward earnings, its lowest since 2023

• Tougher backdrop as rates are expected to rise again, alongside commodity pressure and November midterm uncertainty

Source: Yahoo Finance

Kospi sinks 5.5% as chip rout deepens on CXMT and AI worries

[8:52 am] A global chip sell-off deepened on Tuesday, with Korea’s memory giants hit hardest after China’s CXMT flagged progress on a new memory architecture.

• Kospi down 5.5% at the close after falling more than 7% intraday, triggering the first program trading halt since August

• SK Hynix and Samsung fell about 10% and 7% respectively, with Samsung’s record earnings last week failing to support the stock

• CXMT plans to launch a higher-density server memory product by the end of 2026, using an architecture Samsung and SK Hynix are also developing

• Foreign selling hit US$3.4bn, the most since June, leaving the Kospi down a third from its June record and below its 200-day moving average

• Broadcom CEO warning Hock Tan said financing may be a bigger problem than chip shortages, adding “a lot of investors have no clue what they are investing in”

• Regional spillover with Taiwan’s Taiex and Japan’s Nikkei down nearly 2%, and TSMC off 2% ahead of results from TSMC and ASML this week

JPMorgan dips on rare profit miss as fixed income disappoints

[8:50 am] JPMorgan posted a rare earnings miss as fixed income trading fell well short of ests, with shares closing 0.9% lower, down from session highs of 3.0%.

• Managed NII up 13% to US$27.1bn vs US$26.84bn ests (1% beat)

• Fixed income markets revenue of US$5.4bn vs US$5.89bn ests (8% miss)

• Equity markets revenue up 49% to US$5.0bn vs US$4.5bn ests (11% beat)

• IB fees up 14% to US$3.0bn vs US$3.08bn ests (3% miss)

• Adjusted EPS of US$5.75 vs US$5.90 ests (3% miss), excluding US$658m in securities losses

• Dimon on the economy “Large fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, elevated asset prices, rising interest rates and geopolitical conditions continue to shift under the surface”

• Deals delayed, not cancelled CFO Jeremy Barnum said dealmaking slowed in late September but “fundamentally, the pipeline is robust”

Goldman Sachs crushes ests as equities revenue surges 72%

[8:50 am] Goldman Sachs delivered a big beat on the back of its equities desk, more than offsetting a miss in fixed income trading. The stock rallied as much as 4.1% in early trade but finished down 0.2%.

• Revenue up 23% to US$18.68bn vs US$16.71bn ests (12% beat)

• Equities revenue up 72% to US$6.44bn vs US$4.96bn ests (30% beat)

• FICC revenue flat at US$3.47bn vs US$3.72bn ests (7% miss)

• IB fees up 21% to US$3.22bn vs US$2.76bn ests (17% beat), though the backlog fell from the end of Q2

• EPS up 39% to US$17.01 vs US$13.02 ests (31% beat), including a roughly US$3.20 boost from a one-off tax benefit

• ROE of 18.7% vs 14.5% ests

• No succession underway CEO David Solomon said “there is no succession transition or timeline underway at Goldman Sachs” after reports the board discussed a handover as soon as end-2027

Citi dips despite best third-quarter revenue in a decade

[8:49 am] Citigroup topped profit ests with its best third-quarter revenue in a decade, but shares tumbled 5.6% to a fresh four-month low.

• Revenue up 8% to US$23.8bn vs US$23.72bn ests (in line)

• Services revenue up 15% to US$6.6bn

• Fixed income markets revenue up 4% to US$4.4bn vs US$4.34bn ests (1% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 27% to US$2.85 vs US$2.66 ests (7% beat)

• US card spending up 11% with net charge-offs improving to 3.6% from 4.0%

• US$4.1bn returned to shareholders, an 85% payout ratio

J&J slides 6% as medtech misses for a second quarter

[8:49 am] Johnson & Johnson beat on earnings and nudged up guidance, but shares fell 5.7% as its MedTech division missed ests for a second straight quarter.

• Revenue up 5.9% to US$25.4bn vs US$25.28bn ests (in line)

• Innovative Medicine sales up 7.7% to US$16.76bn vs US$16.59bn ests (1% beat)

• Tremfya sales up 68% to US$2.4bn vs US$2.24bn ests (7% beat), replacing lost Stelara revenue as generics bite

• MedTech sales up 2.5% to US$8.64bn vs US$8.77bn ests (1% miss), with international sales flat

• Adjusted EPS down 7.5% to US$2.59 vs US$2.54 ests (2% beat)

• FY26 adjusted EPS guidance raised to US$11.05 to US$11.15, with the US$11.10 midpoint in line with ests

• Gulf demand hit CFO Joe Wolk said Middle East customers’ “budgets now are being resourced and allocated towards defense”

• DePuy Synthes spin on track for mid-2027, with J&J now leaning towards a spin-off over a sale

Wall St flat as chip sell-off extends and bank earnings kick off

[8:48 am] US stocks bounced off session lows to finish mixed, as dovish Fed commentary offset a fifth straight decline in chipmakers.

• Chip index down a fifth session with the PHLX semiconductor index off more than 8% over that stretch, though still up over 70% year-to-date. Micron and Applied Materials both fell sharply

• Banks lower as the KBW Nasdaq Bank index fell 1.1%, with Wells Fargo down after its net interest income missed ests

• Narrow breadth with the S&P 500 up about 14% in 2026, but the median stock up less than 5% and over 200 constituents down for the year

Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 30 pts (-0.34%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Wall Street drifted lower as a deepening chip rout offset the start of earnings season, with stocks finishing off their worst levels

  • S&P 500 (-0.02%), Nasdaq (-0.15%), Dow (-0.35%), Russell 2000 (-0.40%)

  • Megacap tech held up well, including Meta (+2.6%), Nvidia (+0.9%), Microsoft (+0.4%)

  • Chip names mixed, with Applied Materials (-6.6%), SpaceX (-4.2%), Micron (-3.6%) lower, but AMD (+1.9%) bucking the trend

• Big banks kicked off earnings season on a mixed note, Goldman’s trading blowout contrasting with a rare JPMorgan miss and Dimon’s warning on sticky inflation and rising rates

• The AI trade is cracking, memory chipmakers slumped worldwide on a Chinese breakthrough claim, dragging Korea's Kospi sharply lower

• Fed hike path in focus, NY Fed's Williams backed one more hike this year but none in 2027, ahead of Wednesday's US CPI