ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 10th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, June 10. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Wesfarmers Strategy Day takeaways

[9:24 am] Wesfarmers' Strategy Day featured a progress update on its Covalent Lithium ramp-up, new omnichannel fulfillment build-out and commentary on Middle East-driven ammonia tailwinds at WesCEF. The presentation was relatively light on new updates about its other businesses such as Kmart, Officeworks and Bunnings.

• Kmart Group: New "K Home" concept store unveiled, alongside scaled centralised online fulfilment in NSW and Victoria, an upgraded order management system and a next-gen omnichannel fulfilment centre under construction

• Covalent Lithium: Nameplate spodumene production achieved in FY26 with first high-quality lithium hydroxide produced, refinery focus is now on ramp-up and customer qualification. 2H26 earnings expected to be higher than 1H26, with realised pricing on 2H26 sales largely set mid-FY26 at around US$1,500/t SC6.1, partly offset by lower sales of 55kt spodumene concentrate

• Mt Holland Stage 2: Concentrator expansion to double nameplate production to ~760ktpa (WesCEF 50% share ~380ktpa), with ore sorter and upgraded power distribution to lift recoverable lithium and lower unit costs. Construction targeted for completion in CY29, with Final Investment Decision well progressed towards 1H FY27 and future optionality for downstream processing

• WesCEF/Middle East: Higher ammonia prices flowing through to higher manufactured-tonne earnings, with contract timing lags pushing the benefit from Q4 FY26 into Q1 FY27, CSBP imports ~50% of its ammonia requirements

Company page: Wesfarmers (WES)

Larvotto locks in Glencore gold concentrate offtake for Hillgrove

[9:19 am] Larvotto has signed a binding seven-year gold concentrate offtake with Glencore for its Hillgrove Antimony-Gold Project, completing key concentrate marketing arrangements ahead of August 2026 first production.

• Binding offtake covers gold concentrate sales during the first seven years of Hillgrove operations, with expected annual volumes of ~15,000 dmt of concentrate

• Selected after a competitive tender involving multiple international trading houses, with Glencore's ~£70bn market cap and global precious metals reach cited as differentiators

• Agreement is mine-gate, with Glencore handling all logistics; pricing based on LBMA gold prices adjusted for contained gold content

• Complements the previously announced antimony concentrate offtake with Wogen Resources, locking in pathways for Hillgrove's two primary revenue streams

• Metallurgical testwork ongoing for a potential tungsten concentrate by-product, with offtake discussions to follow

• First production remains on time and budget, with commissioning expected in August 2026

Company page: Larvotto Resources (LRV)

Westpac consumer sentiment slides 2.9% to 80.6 as cost-of-living and tax fears weigh

[9:16 am] Completely forgot about the consumer sentiment print yesterday, which is loaded with interesting stats and insights.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell back near 50-year lows in June, with sharp falls in family finances and house price expectations partly offsetting a slight easing in near-term economy concerns.

• Headline index down 2.9% to 80.6, with pessimists outnumbering optimists by nearly 20%

• "Family finances vs a year ago" sub-index down 7.5% to 67.3 and "family finances next 12 months" down 8.5% to 85.1, giving back almost all of May's gains

• "Economy next 12 months" up 4.9% to a still-weak 77.8 (but still down 15.8% year-on-year), but "economy next 5 years" down 3.2% to a 3-year low of 86.5

• House Price Expectations Index down 14.9% to 128.2, the first read below the long-run 130 average in nearly three years

  • NSW down 19% to 125 and Victoria down 18% to 121

  • Consumers expecting price gains falling to 52% from 66% in May

• Mortgage Rate Expectations Index down 4.8% to 172.6, with two-thirds still expecting rate rises versus 74% last month

• Quarterly "wisest place for savings" question showed real estate at a record low 4.5% (vs 24% long-run average and 9.2% in March), with bank deposits, paying down debt and super favoured by two-thirds of respondents

US existing home sales jump 3.2% in May, smashing expectations

[9:05 am] US existing home sales hit their highest level since December and beat forecasts, with the median price setting a fresh record even as affordability improved.

• Existing home sales up 3.2% m/m in May, well-above ests of 0.7%

• Median sales price up 1.3% y/y to a record $429,300

• Inventory up 3.3% m/m to 1.55m units, representing 4.5 months of supply at current sales pace vs. 4.6 a year ago, though still well below pre-pandemic levels

• First-time buyers were 35% of sales, up from 30% a year ago but still short of the 40% share NAR considers indicative of a robust market

The data drove a strong response for US-listed homebuilders, with the State Street Homebuilder ETF up 3.6% to a six-week high.

NYSE-listed James Hardie shares finished 3.2% higher overnight. The stock has been trading sideways for the past two weeks, following a ~25% rally between 19-29 May.

NYSE-listed James Hardie daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

The mid-late May rally was largely off the back of a mixed fourth quarter result (19 May), which featured a strong FY27 guidance.

• Q4 revenue up 45% to $1.40bn vs $1.41bn ests (in-line), with organic net sales down 1%

• Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $380.9m vs $366.0m ests (4% beat)

• FY26 net sales up 25% to $4.84bn vs. $4.82bn ests (in-line)

• FY26 adjusted EBITDA of $1.27bn vs. $1.25bn ests (1.6% beat)

• FY27 guidance: Pro forma adjusted EBITDA growth of 4-8%, with organic growth expected in Siding & Trim

• FY27 free cash flow guided to at least $500m

  • Unclear if FY27 guidance is comparable to Macquarie's FY27 EBITDA ests of $1.54bn and free cash flow of $668m

EIA sees Brent at US$105 through July as Hormuz closure drives record inventory draws

[8:57 am] The EIA's June Short-Term Energy report assumes the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed near-term, with Middle East crude production down more than 11m bpd in May and OECD inventories set to fall to their lowest since 2003.

• Brent forecast to average US$105/bbl in June and July before falling to US$79/bbl in 2027 as Hormuz flows incrementally resume from 3Q26, with pre-conflict traffic not expected until early 2027

• Global oil inventories forecast to fall an average 6.3m bpd in 2Q26 and 7.6m bpd in 3Q26

• Global oil demand now seen falling 1.1m bpd in 2026 vs. 104.0m bpd in 2025, a sharp downgrade from the May STEO's +0.2m bpd and February's +1.2m bpd

• US wholesale diesel and jet fuel prices forecast more than 60% and 40% higher in 2026 and 2027 respectively vs. the pre-conflict February Short-Term Outlook

• Henry Hub spot forecast to average US$3.34/MMBtu in 2H26 and US$3.55/MMBtu in 2H27, with summer power demand driving a 3% lift in US generation vs. 2025 (solar +19%, wind +10%, coal -2%)

Source: EIA STEO

Oil tumbles as Hormuz traffic picks up despite Iran-Israel flare-up

[8:54 am] Oil prices fell sharply after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Strait of Hormuz ship traffic is "rising very meaningfully," shrugging off renewed Iran-Israel tensions and a downed US helicopter.

• Brent down 1.8% to a near three-month low US$92.33 a barrel

• Wright said Hormuz oil exports are rising and "will continue to rise," though he gave no specific volumes

• JPMorgan estimates ~2m bpd may be exiting the Persian Gulf on tankers with transponders switched off, with the US Navy quietly coordinating some transits despite the naval blockade

• Trump said an Iran deal to reopen Hormuz is "two or three days away," though prior similar claims have not materialised; a fragile April ceasefire nearly unravelled this week before Iran and Israel halted fire

• Oil still up ~30% since the US-Israel strikes on Iran on Feb 28, with industry executives warning prices may spike later this year as global stockpile buffers deplete into peak summer demand

Brent daily price chart (Source: TradingView

Israel halts Iran strikes after Trump pressure as fragile ceasefire holds

[8:51 am] Israel and Iran have both paused operations following a Trump-Netanyahu call, though Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue and Trump's promised peace deal remains elusive.

• Netanyahu accepted a US request to halt strikes on Iran after Trump warned him he'd "be on your own" if attacks continued

• Iran also suspended operations but warned it would resume if Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon continue; five killed in an Israeli strike in Tyre overnight

• Iran's airspace returned to "normal conditions" with flights resuming, and Israel will lift school and workplace restrictions Tuesday 6am local

• Trump says the US will declare "total victory" over Iran in two weeks and oil prices "will come tumbling down", echoing prior unfulfilled two-week timelines including the April 7 ceasefire

• Iran pledged to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz and said it would "defeat" the US naval blockade, which Trump said stays in place until a peace deal

• Iranian official Ebrahim Azizi said Tehran has "no problem" pursuing peace talks but any deal hinges on US behaviour amid deep mistrust; US tracking at least six Americans detained in Iran

Source: CNN

Wells Fargo says AI 'sugar rush' rally is over after Friday's tech selloff

[8:49 am] Wells Fargo's Ohsung Kwon called Friday's tech rout a positioning-driven wake-up call rather than a fundamental break, with the narrow semis trade likely to resume but at a slower pace.

• Kwon expects the "buy semis" trade to return given ongoing war and hyperscaler capex funding, but flagged the "sugar high" rally is over, advising clients to "own AI, sell calls"

• View echoes JPMorgan turning "tactically cautious" and BofA flagging multiplying "bear market signposts" pointing to an approaching top

• A notable risk is debt-funded AI capex, which could stall if hyperscalers can't pass elevated supply chain costs to AI labs while end users question ROI on AI usage

• Capacity is forecast to double annually over the next five years, risking a more balanced supply/demand picture that could slow capex, though Kwon notes AI is still in an early text-based phase

Source: Bloomberg

Apple unveils Siri AI overhaul at WWDC in second crack at AI strategy

[8:47 am] Apple revamped Siri and broadened Apple Intelligence at WWDC, pitching a more functional AI layer across its operating systems after the 2024 launch underdelivered.

• New "Siri AI" assistant powered by Apple Intelligence and a new architecture built with Google's Gemini models, supporting back-and-forth conversations, on-screen awareness, and cross-device sync via a dedicated app on iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch and Vision Pro

• Siri AI launches in beta later this year in English first, with EU and China rollout slowed by regulatory hurdles; requires Apple Intelligence-compatible hardware (iPhone 15 Pro or newer), limiting upgrade reach

• Apple Intelligence features extended at no extra cost across Messages, Mail, Calendar, Safari (auto tab groups, AI-generated extensions), Passwords, Home and Shortcuts, with some capabilities gated behind iCloud+ usage caps

• Photos gains AI editing upgrades (Clean Up, Extend, Reframe) and Image Playground gets more photo-realistic generation with a developer API; Visual Intelligence expands to Mac

• Performance upgrades include apps launching up to 30% faster, photo capture up to 70% faster, AirDrop transfers up to 80% faster, plus optimisations extending to devices as old as iPhone 11

Apple shares fell 3.6% overnight, currently on a three-day skid.

Source: Bloomberg

SpaceX IPO sees institutional demand for multiples of available shares

[8:45 am] SpaceX's $75 billion IPO is heavily oversubscribed ahead of Thursday's institutional order deadline, with allocations set to concentrate among large long-only managers.

• Multiple institutional investors have placed orders of around $10bn or more each, with demand building further after management meetings

• Offering 555.6 million shares at a fixed $135, raising roughly $75bn at a ~$1.8 trillion valuation, set to price June 11 and trade the following day

• Would rank as the largest IPO ever, topping Saudi Aramco's $29.4bn 2019 debut

• Up to 30% of the offering allocated to retail, with retail orders still accepted on some platforms past Wednesday's institutional cut-off

Source: Bloomberg

S&P 500 claws back early losses

[8:44 am] The S&P 500 dipped as much as 2.2% overnight after Trump said Iran shot down a US helicopter, and that the US must "respond to the attack". Despite the intraday selloff, the index managed to recoup most of the decline to close 0.26% lower.

S&P 500 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

US stocks slip as chip rebound fizzles, oil tumbles on Hormuz hopes

[8:41 am] The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell as Monday's semiconductor bounce faded, while oil dropped sharply after US officials flagged improving Strait of Hormuz traffic and Trump signalled a near-term Iran deal.

• S&P 500 down 0.26%, Nasdaq down 0.97% but Dow up 0.17%

• iShares Semiconductor ETF fell 1% after Monday's 6% rebound, with Micron and Broadcom each down 1% as last week's selloff resumed. The ETF lost 10% Friday in its worst day in six years

• Brent settled 1.8% lower to US$93.22 after Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Hormuz shipping traffic is "rising very meaningfully" and Trump flagged a possible US-Iran deal within "two or three days"

• S&P 500 energy fell 1.6%, but materials, consumer discretionary and real estate outperformed

• Home construction ETF up over 2% on better-than-expected May existing home sales

• Nine of 11 sectors finished higher and the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 0.2%

• Stoxx 600 down 0.42% and FTSE 100 down 1.4%, with miners and oil majors leading losses (Fresnillo -5.1%, Antofagasta -3.4%, BP -3%, Shell -1.9%)

Good morning!

[8:25 am] ASX 200 futures are up 13 pts (+0.15%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• US benchmarks mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower as the one-day chip rebound faded, while the Dow eked out a small gain

• S&P 500 down as much as 2.2% in early trade after Trump said the US "must respond" after Iran shot down army helicopter

• Oil retreated after the US Energy Secretary said Strait of Hormuz traffic is increasing, easing the Iran-driven supply premium

• All eyes on US May CPI (out tonight) after April inflation hit 3.8%, consensus expects headline inflation to rise to 4.2%