ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 9th December

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, December 9. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. It'll wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 stages a small bounce, still on-track to close lower

[2:35 pm] Still relatively rangebound, but the ASX 200 has bounced from -0.34% to -0.15% following the rate decision. Some volatility likely ahead of the press conference. The hold appears well-received, probably reflecting how hawkish the market had become.

Some RBA comments were less hawkish than expected: 'The Board judged that some of the recent increase in underlying inflation reflected temporary factors, while noting uncertainty around the monthly CPI data given it is a new series.

ASX 200 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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RBA holds as expected

[2:30 pm] The RBA kept the cash rate at 3.60%, signalling rising upside risks to inflation and a cautious stance as domestic momentum strengthens.

• Inflation has picked up recently, with the RBA noting signs of a broader and potentially persistent rise

• Economic activity is strengthening, led by consumption and investment, while housing activity and prices continue to lift

• Financial conditions have eased since early 2025 and credit is readily available, though market rates and bond yields have risen lately

• Labour market remains a little tight, with low underutilisation, ongoing difficulty sourcing labour and unit labour costs still high

• Stronger-than-expected private demand risks adding to capacity pressures, prompting the Board to stay cautious and data-dependent

Today’s policy decision was unanimous.

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Here comes the rate decision

[2:25 pm] ASX 200 headed back towards intraday lows, down 0.34%. This rate decision isn't really about what the RBA does but its forward looking commentary. Let's see how this plays out ...

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ASX 200 in waiting mode

[12:16 pm] Not a whole lot happening out there. The S&P/ASX 200 is currently down 0.14%, bouncing off intraday lows of -0.46% and still holding above the key 200-day moving average. Breadth remains mostly unchanged, with roughly two-thirds of constituents trading lower.

The index's reversal mostly reflects an intraday bounce for the Materials sector, which dipped 0.68% in early trade but now up 0.22%. Might put the blog on hold until the RBA decision at 2:30 pm.

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Australian business confidence dips as capacity constraints tighten

[12:01 pm] NAB’s November survey shows confidence and conditions falling, highlighting ongoing pressure on prices despite a resilient economy.

• Business confidence fell 5 points to 1, marking the second consecutive monthly decline

• Business conditions dropped 3 points, weighed down by weaker trading and profitability, offsetting modest employment gains

• Capacity utilisation rose to 83.6%, the highest in 18 months, signalling firms are operating near full capacity

• Tight labour market and accelerating growth could reignite price pressures, adding potential upward pressure on inflation

• Data released ahead of the RBA’s expected hold at 3.6%, with markets considering possible rate hikes in 2026

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Life360 business update takeaways

[11:03 am] Life360 hosted a business update call overnight, with management outlining a 2026-focused synergy ramp with its newly acquired TiVo.

• No financial contribution expected in 2025, with the TiVo deal set to close in early 2026

• Adjusted EBITDA accretive from day one post-acquisition, with revenue and cost synergies targeted for full realisation by year-end 2026

• Offsite advertising inventory enabled by TiVo is roughly 30 times larger than in-app inventory, materially expanding ad reach

• Subscription revenue remains the core focus and primary earnings driver, with international ad expansion only considered after proving economics in North America

Life360 is trading 4.0% lower today, with the stock giving back most of its recent bounce-back gains (~20% move between 19-25 Nov). Price action for most tech names (360, PME, QOR, TNE, XRO, CAT etc.) has been relatively bearish. These stocks have suffered sharp and volatile pullbacks, and struggling to hold recent oversold bounces.

Life360 daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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ASX 200 continues to trade sideways

[10:55 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is currently down 0.13%, marking a sixth consecutive session of flattish price action and relatively narrow trading ranges. Breadth is relatively weak, with 131 constituents (66%) trading lower, mostly reflecting weakness from sectors like energy, gold and tech.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:22 am] Nothing too crazy at the open. A few resource names ticking higher, notably nickel and lithium miners. Meanwhile, gold stocks continued to pull back and tech stocks like Life360 and Zip fail to hold recent gains.

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Bapcor dips 16%

[10:02 am] Bapcor is down 16% in the first minute of trade, hovering the $2.00 level. The stock is now down 56% year-to-date and trading at levels not seen since early 2015.

As we noted earlier: Bapcor guided to FY26 underlying NPAT guidance of $44-49m. This represents a 42% year-on-year decline (at the midpoint) and 15.4% below Citi expectations of $55 million (which was already cut by 33% to reflect the most recent earnings downgrade on 20 Oct).

Bapcor short interest is sitting near record highs of 5.99%, which could see some volatile price action (short covering vs. renewed consensus downgrades).

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Liontown signs offtake agreement with Canmax

[9:46 am] Liontown announced a binding offtake agreement with China's Canmax Technologies, a large industrial conglomerate and one of the world’s leading producers of lithium chemicals and consumer of raw lithium material.

Liontown will supply Canmax with 150,000 wmt per year of spodumene concentrate over 2027-28. Pricing will be determined using a formula referencing spodumene concentrate indices.

Canmax also participated in Liontown's ~$316 million capital raising back in August 2025, providing $50 million at $0.73 per share.

Company page: Liontown (LTR)

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Macquarie sees mixed Black Fortnight trends with category divergences emerging

[9:34 am] Macquarie’s high-frequency consumer data shows strong momentum in some retail categories, while Electronics and off-prem alcohol remain weak.

• Early Black Fortnight data shows strong year-on-year gains in Online (up 18%), Pharmacy (up 13%) and Furniture (up 8%), while Electronics slipped 1%

• Pharmacy continues to grow at low double digits across October and November, and Furniture is delivering mid-single-digit gains despite soft housing conditions

• On-prem alcohol lifted 3% year-on-year, likely aided by the first Ashes test, while off-prem alcohol remains weak but with a moderating rate of decline

• Electronics spend appears softer than market anecdotes suggest, with Macquarie awaiting final November data before turning more cautious

• Macquarie’s preferred stocks are COL for market share and supply chain leverage, JBH as the top discretionary pick post pull-back, NCK in household retail on share gains, and UNI in apparel driven by sales momentum and private-label mix

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Bapcor goes from bad to worse

[9:29 am] Bapcor shares have nosedived 53% since late July, trading at levels not seen 2015. But today's trading update shows that things have only gone from bad to worse.

• "Trading performance in October and November was below expectation mainly in the Trade segment."

• "Trade is also investing in pricing across specific parts categories to regain market share. The price reductions have adversely impacted margins in the short term but are expected to drive volume growth in the future."

• Retail revenue has been solid, with October and November revenues up 1.3% year-on-year

• First-half FY26 to record statutory net loss of $5-8 million

• FY26 underlying NPAT guidance of $44-49m

The FY26 underlying NPAT guidance represents a 42% year-on-year decline (at the midpoint) and 15.4% below Citi expectations of $55 million (which was already cut by 33% to reflect the most recent earnings downgrade on 20 Oct).

While the share price has moved in a straight line (down), this is another downbeat surprise and sizeable miss vs. revised market expectations.

Short interest in Bapcor has spiked to 5.99% (a near record high vs. June 2024 levels of ~6.2%).

Company page: Bapcor (BAP)

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China’s December Politburo meeting signals steady macro support for 2026

[9:20 am] Beijing reinforced a supportive fiscal and monetary stance at its December Politburo meeting, with a shift toward broad macro stability rather than sector-specific intervention, according to RBC analyst Kaan Peker.

Peker's key takeaways include:

• Fiscal policy set to take a larger role in 2026, with signs the deficit target may widen again to back infrastructure and investment-heavy activity

• Monetary policy stays “moderately loose,” pointing to incremental easing and continued liquidity support rather than explicit rate cuts

• Persistent trade frictions with the US and EU acknowledged, with no indication China will scale back industrial ambitions despite tariff risks

• More neutral tone on competition and price wars, suggesting no imminent regulatory push for consolidation in EVs, batteries or upstream materials

• Growth target likely to remain similar to 2025, with an emphasis on maintaining “reasonable” expansion and macro stability

The read-throughs for key resource sectors are:

• Iron ore: Positive on iron ore exposed equities like BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue. Supportive fiscal stance and infrastructure indices steady steel demand, with no new policies on steel output management.

• Copper: Positive on copper exposed names like Sandfire, BHP, South32 and 29Metals. Continued focus on electrification and grid investment, both of which are copper-intensive sectors.

• Lithium: No additional policy signals on battery over-supply or capacity, though electrification and grid investment still positive for lithium demand. Neutral on lithium names like PLS, IGO, MinRes etc.

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CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine fails to resume production

[9:15 am] Lithium names like PLS (+6.0%) and Liontown (+14.7%) showed rather uncanny strength on Monday. According to China's National Business Daily, CATL's Yichun Jianxiawo lithium mine failed to resume production as scheduled on 5 December, with trades flagging "many local companies have run out of lithium ore to sell."

The mine is expected to account for approximately 3% of global lithium production, according to Bloomberg. CATL announced the sooner-than-expected restart on 10 September, which drove PLS and Liontown shares down 17% and 18% respectively on the day.

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Analysts lifts S&P 500 earnings expectations again

[9:00 am] Analysts have raised Q4 S&P 500 EPS estimates instead of cutting them, bucking a long-standing seasonal trend.

• Bottom-up S&P 500 Q4 EPS estimate has nudged up to $70.34 vs. $70.16 at the end of Q3

• This marks the second straight quarter where EPS estimates rose in the first two months, counter to history where estimates typically fall between 1.1-3.2%

• Consensus now expects Q4 earnings growth of 7.7%, down from 13.5% in Q3 and the slowest since early 2024

• Full-year earnings growth forecast sits at 11.9% for 2025, accelerating to 14.5% in 2026

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NAAIM exposure index nears 100

[8:58 am] The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by its members. The responses range between -200% (leveraged short) to 200% (leveraged long), though the index itself tends to sit around 60-100%.

The NAAIM has started to creep towards the high end of its range, currently at 98.5%.

At a glance, the market tends to get a little heavy when exposure starts to sit close to or above 100%.

NAAIM Exposure Index vs. S&P 500 (Source: NAAIM)

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ResMed secures FDA clearance for AI-driven Smart Comfort

[8:49 am] ResMed’s new AI-powered Smart Comfort feature aims to boost CPAP adherence by personalising comfort settings using real-world sleep data. Though ResMed shares dipped 2.5% overnight and down around 15% since late August.

• Smart Comfort becomes the first FDA-cleared AI tool to recommend personalised CPAP comfort settings, leveraging more than 100 million nights of sleep data

• Limited US beta launch planned for early 2026 via the myAir app and AirSense 11, with a broader rollout later in 2026

• Streamlines clinician workflows by reducing manual adjustments and standardising comfort-setting setup

• Addresses a rapidly growing OSA population in the US, expected to reach 77 million by 2050, reinforcing the need for effective CPAP adoption

Company page: ResMed (RMD)

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Strategists turn upbeat on 2026, with pockets of caution

[8:47 am] Most brokers lean bullish into 2026, pointing to a supportive macro backdrop, improving market breadth, and favourable early-cycle signals, though some warn the near-term rally may pause.

• Oppenheimer sees the strongest upside, setting an 8,100 target for 2026 driven by robust growth, easier policy and strong earnings.

• Morgan Stanley highlights a bullish early-cycle setup, with consumer discretionary and small caps benefiting from stabilising prices and a shift back to goods spending.

• RBC notes improving breadth and steadier crypto and credit markets, though earnings sentiment has peaked despite still-positive revisions.

• JPMorgan cautions the rally may stall after this week’s Fed cut is priced in, but stays constructive medium term on dovish policy, soft oil prices and lower trade uncertainty.

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Good morning!

[8:35 am] ASX 200 futures are down 26pts (-0.30%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.. The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 0.35% and 0.14% respectively

• Equal-weight S&P 500 down 0.60%, reflecting relatively broad weakness. Every S&P 500 sector was down expect tech

• Markets largely expecting a hawkish Fed cut on Thursday. This dynamic is driving bond yields slightly higher, with the US 10-year up 3 bps overnight to 4.17% (highest since September)

Catch up on all the overnight moves and news via today's Morning Wrap.