ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 23rd June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, June 23. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Viva Energy restarts key Geelong unit, Alkylation to stay offline through 2027

[9:56 am] Viva Energy has restarted the residue catalytic cracking unit at its Geelong refinery following the April fire, returning production to over 90% of normal capacity.

• The RCCU and associated units return to operation this week, lifting production back above 90% of normal capacity as previously advised.

• The Alkylation unit will remain offline and is expected to stay out throughout 2027 based on current damage assessment, reducing the refinery's ability to convert LPG by-product into gasoline.

• The Geelong Refining Margin was US$23.9/bbl for April and May from refining intake of 6.5 MMbbl, reflecting reduced production, lower margin yield and rising crude premia.

• Preliminary investigation indicates the incident was caused by failure of a section of piping within the Alkylation unit, releasing fuel which ignited.

• Viva continues to work with insurers on property damage and business interruption.

Company page: Viva Energy (VEA)

Santos starts continuous production at Pikka Phase 1 in Alaska

[9:25 am] Santos has begun continuous production at its Pikka Phase 1 oil project on Alaska's North Slope, with first wells delivering gross output of about 20,000 bbl/day.

• Plateau production of around 80,000 bbl/day is targeted during Q3 2026, with seawater injection for pressure support starting over the next few weeks before more wells come online.

• Pikka Phase 1 brings about 400 million barrels of gross 2P reserves into production.

• An additional ~600 million barrels of gross 2C resource underpins staged development beyond Phase 1 in the Pikka Unit.

• Santos described Pikka as a high-quality, low-cost development benefiting it and joint venture partner Repsol.

Company page: Santos (STO)

Reliance Worldwide to close Melbourne brass operations

[9:24 am] Reliance Worldwide will shut its Melbourne brass casting, forging and machining operations as part of an ongoing rationalisation of its global manufacturing footprint.

• The closures are expected to deliver a net annual EBITDA benefit of about US$9m across the group by the end of FY27, reflecting an US$18m Americas benefit offset by a US$9m adverse APAC impact.

• A one-off net charge of US$100m to US$110m will be recognised in FY26 and excluded from operating earnings, of which only about US$5m is cash.

• The charge includes US$70m to US$80m of intangible impairment including goodwill, around US$25m of tangible asset write-downs and about US$5m of redundancy and property exit costs.

• Around 85 employees are affected, with consultation expected to complete during July 2026.

Company page: Reliance Worldwide (RWC)

Lynas confirms Malaysian regulator has requested a revised environmental assessment

[9:20 am] Lynas has responded to media reports on the environmental impact assessment for its proposed Malaysian expansion, confirming regulators want a revised submission.

• The Malaysian Department of Environment has requested an updated EIA following a technical review, which Lynas will submit as requested.

• The release follows a Malaysia Kini article reporting the DOE had rejected the EIA for the Gebeng plant expansion.

Company page: Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

Ioneer signs Korean LOIs to advance Rhyolite Ridge

[9:16 am] Ioneer has secured non-binding letters of intent with Korea's KIND and Hyundai Engineering to support its Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project.

• The non-binding LOIs with state-backed KIND and Hyundai Engineering are intended to be formalised through MOUs expected in July 2026.

• Ioneer is targeting a Final Investment Decision in the second half of 2026, with first commercial production expected in 2029.

• Rhyolite Ridge hosts the only known lithium-boron reserve in North America, with more than $220m invested since 2016 and over 70% of advanced engineering complete.

• Updated October 2025 economics halved processing time and lifted annual output to 27,800tpa lithium hydroxide and 135,500tpa boric acid.

• The LOIs are non-binding with no certainty that legally binding arrangements will follow.

Company page: Ioneer (INR)

WiseTech says reported White investigation has no bearing on the company

[9:14 am] WiseTech has responded to media commentary alleging a personal investigation into Executive Chair Richard White, said to relate to a visa application.

• The Company stressed the reported investigation concerns White in a personal capacity, with no suggestion of any investigation into WiseTech itself.

• WiseTech said it is not aware of any such investigation, and White has assured the Board he is not aware of it either.

• White emphatically and unequivocally denied any involvement in or with human trafficking.

WiseTech tumbled 18.4% ($30.08) on Monday to the lowest since July 2021. The stock is now down 56% year-to-date vs. the broader S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index, which is down 18.1%.

Company page: WiseTech Global (WTC)

Iluka signs first rare earths offtake deal with global automaker

[9:09 am] Iluka has secured its first binding rare earths offtake agreement, a take-or-pay deal with a global automotive company commencing in 2028.

• The take-or-pay agreement runs an initial four years from 2028 and covers 1,200t of magnet rare earth oxides, about 10% of planned production over the period.

• Pricing is set at the higher of minimum and market-linked prices, with minimum revenue of US$155m and around US$172m assuming industry forecast pricing.

• Volumes align with the commissioning and ramp-up of the Eneabba refinery, now over 50% complete and due to commission in 2027.

• The deal spans the full suite of light and heavy magnet oxides and carries minimum prices independent of government-backed pricing.

• Iluka said discussions with other prospective customers are ongoing.

Company page: Iluka Resources (ILU)

Metcash flags no hardware recovery in FY27 as restructuring continues

[9:03 am] Metcash used its FY26 earnings call on Monday to signal an extended hardware downturn, with restructuring underway and several cost headwinds flagged for FY27.

• No material improvement is expected in the hardware market in FY27, with restructuring actions underway to restore margins.

• Sustaining capex is guided to around $150m annually for the foreseeable future, excluding M&A on retail store acquisitions.

• Depreciation and amortisation will rise by a low double-digit percentage in FY27 as new assets come online.

• Tobacco excise changes represent a $10m headwind to food earnings in FY27 as prior procurement benefits unwind.

• Retail store ownership is targeted at 25 to 30% of IGA network revenue by FY2030, with one-off FY26 strategy and integration costs not expected to recur.

The FY26 result was admirable considering all the headwinds surrounding rate hikes, consumer confidence etc.

• Sales revenue up 0.7% to $19.6bn (up 3.8% ex-tobacco)

• Underlying NPAT down 2.4% to $268.8m vs guidance of $268-270m and $270.3m ests (1% miss)

• Underlying EBIT of $503.7m vs guidance of $501-505m and $500.3m ests (1% beat)

• Fully franked final dividend of 9.5 cps, taking full-year dividends to 18 cps vs. Morgan Stanley ests of 16 cps (12.5% beat)

The stock briefly rallied 2.2% in early trade on Monday, but finished the session 1.8% lower to $3.12.

Company page: Metcash (MTS)

Fortescue charters 12 ammonia-capable bulkers from CMB.TECH

[9:01 am] Fortescue has agreed to charter up to 12 ammonia-capable Newcastlemax vessels from CMB.TECH's Bocimar division to advance zero-emissions shipping.

• The 12 Newcastlemax vessels each carry 210,000 dwt, with up to three delivered with dual-fuel ammonia engines expected in service by the end of 2026.

• The remaining nine vessels will be ammonia-ready and convertible to run on ammonia in future.

• If fuelled by green ammonia, the combined fleet could cut carbon dioxide emissions by about 250,000 tonnes a year versus conventional marine fuels.

• The deal builds on a partnership between Fortescue and Bocimar spanning more than two decades.

Company page: Fortescue (FMG)

A massive City Chic block trade

[8:59 am] A 51.2 million-share line in City Chic Collective changed hands on Monday at 3.78 cents per share, representing roughly 13.3% of the company.

Company page: City Chic Collective (CCX)

Record US equity inflows mask stretched tech positioning, analysts warn

[8:55 am] US equities drew record weekly inflows even as several desks flagged extended semiconductor positioning and rising hedge fund leverage as late-cycle warning signs.

• US equities attracted a record net $119.2bn in the week to 17-Jun and are annualising a record $739bn of inflows in 2026, with tech taking a record $19.2bn, according to BofA.

• Goldman said flows have broadened into financials, cyclicals and parts of Europe and Asia, though not at the expense of AI, with Mag 7 gross and net exposure at one-year lows.

• BTIG warned the semiconductor vs. Nasdaq ratio has surged 46% in 12 weeks, with nine 5% up days over 60 sessions, a velocity seen only at major tops or bear-market bottoms.

• Deutsche Bank said aggregate equity positioning rose from modestly underweight to slightly above neutral (0.05sd, 42nd percentile), with discretionary investors still slightly below neutral and systematic strategies holding modestly overweight.

• JPMorgan flagged hedge fund gross leverage at the 100th percentile, while Goldman's prime desk noted hedge funds turned modest net sellers after four straight weeks of buying.

China targets US rare earths producers in retaliation for Pentagon move

[8:50 am] China imposed export controls on two US rare earth producers in response to the Pentagon adding Chinese firms to a military-linked roster, though the curbs are largely symbolic.

• MP Materials and USA Rare Earth were added to China's export control list, barred from accessing dual-use items, with the ban extending globally to transfers of China-origin dual-use goods.

• The curbs are mostly symbolic as both companies say they have largely cut off Chinese equipment and materials, with MP shares rising as much as 3.7% and USA Rare Earth up as much as 5.8%.

• The move responds to the Pentagon adding major Chinese companies to a list accusing them of supporting the military, and ends a lull since last October's Trump-Xi summit.

• Eight other US firms including drone, robotics and aerospace makers were also added to the list.

• China accounts for around 60% of global mined rare earths, above 90% of refining and nearly 95% of permanent magnet production, underscoring its leverage.

These geopolitical and trade flare ups tend to benefit local names like Lynas, which closed 2.4% higher on Monday, up from session lows of (-4.8%).

Source: Bloomberg

Trump rebuilds tariff wall after Supreme Court strikes down global levies

[8:49 am] Trump is using Section 301 trade probes to reconstruct his tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled the original Liberation Day levies illegal, reshuffling winners and losers.

• The administration is leaning on forced-labour and excess-capacity investigations under Section 301 to make a rebuilt tariff wall more legally durable, with temporary 10% across-the-board duties expiring at the end of July.

• The Philippines and South Africa are set to benefit, with rates falling to 12.5% from 19% and 30% respectively once forced-labour penalties land.

• Smaller economies gain most, with Pakistan dropping 19 points to 10% and Myanmar potentially falling from 44% to between zero and 2%.

• Singapore is a clear loser, facing both a 12.5% forced-labour tariff and an expected excess-capacity duty after sitting comfortably at 10%.

• China is far better placed than at the term's start, with the effective rate around 21% versus the 60% Trump once threatened, ahead of a tariff truce review this autumn.

Source: Bloomberg

Qatar moves empty LNG ships through Hormuz as export restart nears

[8:48 am] Qatar is rushing empty LNG tankers back through the Strait of Hormuz as it prepares to restart shipments worth about a fifth of global supply.

• Four Qatar-linked tankers are transiting Hormuz without hiding their location, the largest single-day volume of empty LNG ships since the war began over three months ago.

• Another four vessels are near eastern Oman with more on the way, after security concerns had kept Qatar from sending empty carriers into the Gulf until last week.

• Qatar loaded just over 300,000 tons of LNG in the week to June 19, the most since early March but still only about a fifth of pre-war levels.

• A fast restart of Ras Laffan, the world's biggest LNG export plant, is being closely watched as it would ease global prices, with Dutch gas rising on Monday.

• QatarEnergy reported an explosion and fire at the Barzan gas supply facility during startup on Sunday, with the impact on LNG output unclear.

Source: Bloomberg

Brent hits fresh three-month low

[8:47 am] Brent rallied as much as 2.4% on Monday, but finished the session down 2.75% to US$78.16 a barrel, the lowest since 2 March.

Brent daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

US and Iran make progress in Switzerland talks, agree 60-day roadmap

[8:44 am] US and Iranian negotiators reported encouraging progress toward a peace deal, pushing oil lower even as Trump renewed threats over Hezbollah attacks on Israel.

• Mediators Qatar and Pakistan said the parties agreed a roadmap to a final deal within 60 days and set up a mechanism for further technical talks.

• A communication line was established to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a de-confliction cell involving Lebanon.

• A resolution in Lebanon is seen as decisive for the talks, ultimately hinging on Israel's support, though Israel was not party to the agreement.

• Trump warned he would strike Iran again if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel and threatened tolls if no deal is reached, briefly prompting Iran to halt talks before they resumed.

Source: Bloomberg

SpaceX kicks off bond sale, discloses $100.8bn cash pile

[8:43 am] SpaceX launched its inaugural notes offering days after its record IPO, revealing a cash hoard above $100 billion as it funds an aggressive AI build-out.

• SpaceX announced a senior unsecured notes offering and disclosed about $100.8bn in cash, with sources saying it is targeting $20bn as soon as Tuesday.

• Proceeds will go toward repaying bridge financing and general purposes, funding chip purchases and planned data centres in space.

• Shares fell 16% for a third consecutive losing session.

Source: CNBC

SpaceX falls 16% on debut bond sale, three-day loss hits 23%

[8:42 am] SpaceX shares dropped for a third straight session after the company launched its first investment-grade bond sale to fund AI ambitions.

• Shares fell 16% overnight to close at $154.60, the lowest since its first trading day, taking the three-day loss to 23% and erasing over $600bn in value.

• SpaceX is seeking to raise at least $20bn from its debut bond offering, part of an expected borrowing spree to fund its AI push.

• Market cap now sits just above $2 trillion, leaving the stock the sixth-largest company in the world and still about 15% above its $135 IPO price.

• SpaceX also signed a multibillion-dollar deal to supply computing resources to AI startup Reflection AI, following its February acquisition of Musk's xAI.

Source: Bloomberg

Alphabet slides 5% as second AI star defects

[8:40 am] Alphabet shares fell to a one-year low after Nobel laureate John Jumper left DeepMind for Anthropic, the second high-profile AI exit in days.

• Alphabet closed down 5.0%, its worst one-day fall in over a year, after DeepMind VP and AlphaFold co-creator John Jumper departed for Anthropic, following Gemini co-lead Noam Shazeer's recent move to OpenAI.

• The exits have stoked fears Google is losing the AI talent war, with DA Davidson noting Google had the leading model only briefly last year and may now be falling behind on frontier models and coding tools.

• Investors are rotating out of AI spenders and into AI beneficiaries, with Micron rising as much as 6.2% to record highs on a new agreement with Anthropic to scale AI infrastructure.

The funny thing here is that Alphabet shares fell around 3% after its $80 billion equity capital raise, but when two AI researchers leave, the stock tanks ~5%.

Source: Bloomberg

US markets close lower as tech selloff deepens, Russell 2000 cracks 3,000

[8:38 am] A tech-led selloff dragged the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower overnight, while small caps surged to a record and oil tumbled on Iran de-escalation hopes.

• Nasdaq down 1.32% to 26,166.60 and S&P 500 down 0.37% to 7,472.79

• Dow rose 0.29% to 51,712.71 on a near 4% gain in Caterpillar

• Alphabet fell 5% on AI talent departure concerns, with Amazon down 4.8%, Microsoft down 3% and Meta down 2.3%

• Russell 2000 topped 3,000 for the first time ever, up 0.83% to 3,004.40 and now up more than 21% year-to-date as investors rotate into small caps

• Brent crude fell 2.75% to $78.16 after the US and Iran agreed a roadmap to a final deal within 60 days, with Treasury also authorising Iranian oil sales for 60 days

Good morning!

[8:29 am] ASX 200 futures are up 21 pts (+0.23%)

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• US benchmarks finished mixed, S&P 500 down 0.4% and Nasdaq off 1.3%, while the Dow rose 0.3% on a Caterpillar surge

• Alphabet sank 5% on AI talent defections and SpaceX crashed 16% on a debt-sale shock, dragging megacap tech lower

• US 2-year yield climbed 5 bps to 4.23%, the highest since Feb-25 as near-term Fed rate hike bets continue to climb