ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 19th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, August 19. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Small caps making moves

[1:27 pm] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers at noon. Audinate, Bravura Solutions and Ooh!Media are all bouncing from recent results-driven selloffs.

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Judo Capital FY25 earnings call highlights

[1:22 pm] Judo just wrapped up its FY25 earnings call. The stock is currently up 4% ($1.82) after a rather volatile open (opened up 6%, briefly fell 2.2%) as its guidance may have missed some lofty analyst expectations.

• New savings account offers 30 bps margin advantage over term deposits, lowering funding costs

• Loan sales under consideration to optimise balance sheet, supported by high SME asset yields

• 2026 loan book growth target cut due to runoff rate uncertainty, though origination remains strong

• Fixed cost leverage improvements expected in 2026, with greater benefit in H2

• NIM guidance for 2026 remains confident, underpinned by new deposit products and reduced reliance on term deposits

• Provisioning increased for downside scenarios, reflecting improved forecasts and refined risk tools

• Warehouse lending drawdowns slower than expected, but still attractive with high ROE potential despite NIM drag

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers at noon

[1:17 pm] Lots of results-driven movers today, with Seek trending higher, Judo chopping around the midpoint of today's range while CSL continues to face heavy selling pressure.

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CSL continues to unwind

[11:46 am] CSL continues to hit fresh intraday lows, currently down 12.3% ($237.55).

It seems like the overhang and FY26 guidance is really driving investors out of the ex-healthcare darling. Will be interesting to see if it continues trending lower.

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HMC Capital FY25 earnings call takeaways

[11:43 am] HMC Capital just wrapped up its earnings call. The stock is currently down 7% ($3.25), largely driven by a weaker-than-expected guidance.

• Earnings: Lowered guidance to $0.40/share due to one-off costs and strategic investments, while narrowing energy transition fund focus to wind and large-scale batteries amid expected market volatility.

• Capital Growth: Expecting strong capital inflows by targeting direct investors and leveraging three-year track record, with real estate funds holding over $2bn in dry powder for deployment opportunities.

• Business Expansion: Private credit AUM grew 25% with significant Asia-Pacific investor interest, while the digital vertical demonstrates robust growth potential through active sales efforts and expanding pipeline.

• Financial Position: Asset valuations aligned with net asset values and fully auditor-approved, with no immediate valuation changes planned.

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What a morning

[11:15 am] Some absolute face ripping moves this morning.

• CSL: Opened sharply lower, and currently testing intraday lows (-11% to $240). Selling pressure continues to mount on messy restructure/cost-cutting/Seqirus demerger and soft FY26 guidance.

• Hub24: Currently down 3.0% ($106) but the first few minutes of trade was insanity (opened 8% lower but quickly V-shaped to breakeven). Results slightly ahead of market expectations, and July FUA showing signs of acceleration. Though valuation and recent performance remain a concern.

• Judo: Up 4% ($1.82%). Open was also extremely volatile as FY26 guidance fell slightly short prior commentary (50% y/y PBT growth). Though overall growth narrative remains intact, with solid NTA backing and NIMs.

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Santos down on takeover news

[10:58 am] Santos is trading down 3.2% after XRG, the consortium looking to take over the oil and gas company, announced it would be unlikely to reach a binding deal before its exclusivity period ends on Friday.

But a deal was still possible after the Abu Dhabi-backed XRG found no issues after it had "substantially completed due diligence", according to Santos.

By Tom Stelzer

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Big moves on market open

[10:34 am] It's a big day for results and we've already seen some dramatic reactions from investors.

The ASX 200 is down 63 points (0.70%) from yesterday's record high.

CSL is down 9% after it announced plans to cut 15% of its workforce (around 3,000 jobs) and results showed weak revenue growth.

Other big losers included HMC Capital, down 6.3%, and Reliance Worldwide Corporation, down 6.1%.

HUB24 also opened 8% lower before rebounding to breakeven. It had reported mostly in-line results but has been trading at a PE of 154x.

By Tom Stelzer

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ARB FY25 earnings

[10:10 am] 4x4 accessories specialists ARB has announced higher sales revenue (up 5.3%) but lower profits (down 5%) in its FY25 results.

In bigger news, it also announced a special divided of $0.50 per share, bringing total dividends for the year to $1.19 per share, fully franked, a 72.5% increase on last year's dividend.

Here are the key takeaways:

• NPAT of $96.2m (3.8% miss)

• Revenue of $729.9m (0.5% miss)

• Final dividend of $0.35 (fully-franked), plus $0.50 special dividend

By Tom Stelzer

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: ARB Corporation Ltd (ARB)

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More on the BHP dividend

[9:57 am] While the final dividend has come in higher than expected, FY25 will be the company's lowest distribution in absolute terms since FY17.

Total dividends for the year will be US$1.10 per share, down from US$1.46 last financial year, but above expectations (US$1.01).

If you want more in-depth analysis of the big results coming through today, we'll be getting the expert view on HUB24, BHP, CSL and Woodside over on Livewire Markets today.

By Tom Stelzer

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BHP FY25 earnings

[9:44 am] The world's biggest miner, BHP, has also reported this morning. Revenue is down off the back of falling iron ore and coal prices, but shareholders will receive a slightly-better than expected final dividend.

Here are some of the key numbers (in US$):

• Revenue of $51.26bn (in-line with consensus)

• Earnings per share of $2.00 (1% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA of $25.98bn (in-line)

• Free cash flow of $5.34bn (7.6% below consensus)

• Net operating cash flow to $18.69bn (9.6% down from $20.67 bn last year)

• Final dividend of $US0.60 per share (fully franked)

Looking ahead, FY26 guidance remained unchanged:

• Iron ore 258-269Mt

• Energy coal 14-16Mt

• Steelmaking coal 18-20Mt

• Copper 1,800-2,000kt

By Tom Stelzer

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: BHP Group Ltd (BHP)

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Woodside 1H25 earnings

[9:10 am] No big surprises from Woodside, though the interim dividend is slightly ahead of market expectations. Guidance reaffirmed. Here are the key numbers for the first-half:

• Production up 11% to 548Mboe/day, with total production of 99.2MMboe vs. 99.2MMboe ests (in-line)

• Unit production cost down 7% to $7.7 per boe

• EBITDA up 5% to $4.6bn

• Net profit after tax down 32% to $1.3bn, underlying NPAT of $1.2bn (underlying in-line with ests)

• Interim dividend down 23% to 53 cps vs. 51 cps ests (3.9% beat)

• Reaffirmed full-year guidance including 188-195MMboe

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Woodside (WDS)

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Monadelphous FY25 earnings

[9:00 am] Monadelphous reported a slight beat across most numbers for FY25.

• Revenue up 12% to $2.27bn vs. $2.18bn consensus (4% beat)

• Net profit after tax up 34.6% to $83.7m vs. $78m consensus (7% beat)

• Full-year dividend up 24% to 72 cps vs. Citi ests of 69.9 cps (3% beat)

• Secured record $2.5bn in new contracts and extensions

“Robust longer-term demand is forecast across the resources and energy markets, with significant prospects in both construction and maintenance. Demand for energy transition metals and Australia’s Net Zero emissions objective is also driving a significant pipeline of opportunities, as well as from customer decarbonisation and electrification activities," said Managing Director Zoran Bebic.

No specific guidance, but mentioned: “Activity levels rising across the business over the past six months, Monadelphous is well placed to deliver growth for the 2026 financial year.”

To add some perspective, MND has had a massive run up, rallying ~44% year-to-date. Though its forward looking commentary might appear a little more update vs. Citi estimates of 5.9% revenue growth for FY26 (though NPAT forecast to fall 3.5% y/y).

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Monadelphous (MND)

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Hub24 FY25 earnings

[8:50 am] Could see some volatility given the stock is trading near record highs and up 57% year-to-date, trading at a PE of 154x. Though most numbers for FY25 and FUA guidance are in-line with market expectations. The below estimates refer to Morgan Stanley ests as of 17 July.

• Total FUA up 30% to $136.4bn

• Platform FUA up 34% to $112.7bn vs. $112.7bn ests (in-line)

• Revenue up 24% to $406.6m vs. $413.2m ests (2% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA up 38% to $162.4m vs. $164.6m ests (1% miss)

• Underlying NPAT up 44% to $97.8m vs. $95.6m ests (2% beat)

• Total dividend up 47% to 56 cps vs. 57.3 cps ests (2% miss)

The company said it expects to see platform FUA range between $148-162 billion for FY27 vs. Morgan Stanley ests of $156.5 billion.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Hub24 (HUB)

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CSL FY25 earnings

[8:45 am] Some massive news coming out of CSL, including a multi-year buyback and intention to demerge Seqirus as a separate ASX-listed entity in FY26. Though FY26 looks relatively soft vs. analyst expectations.

Here are the key numbers for FY25 vs. UBS estimates:

• Revenue up 5% to $15.6bn vs. $15.8bn ests (1.0% miss)

• NPAT up 17% to $3.0bn vs. $2.96bn ests (1.0% beat)

• NPATA EPS up 10% to $6.65 vs. $6.55 ests (2.0% beat)

• Final dividend up 12% to $1.62, total dividend up 11% to $2.92 vs. $2.96 ests (1% miss)

• Multi-year buyback program starting with $750m in FY26

FY26 guidance included Group revenue growth of 4-5% and NPATA up 7-10% to $3.45-3.55bn vs. Citi ests of 7.3% and 15.5% respectively.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: CSL (CSL)

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Reliance Worldwide FY25 earnings

[8:33 am] An unsurprisingly flattish result from Reliance, with CEO Heath Sharp flagging: "A year ago, we were anticipating interest rate reductions would stimulate residential remodel activity and new home construction. The reductions in interest rates seen so far have been insufficient to lift demand."

Here are the key numbers for FY25 (all figures in US$):

• Net sales up 55.% to $1.31bn vs. $1.31bn ests (in-line)

• Adjusted EBITDA up 1.1% to $277.7m vs. $279.7m ests (1% miss)

• Final dividend of 5 cents per share, on-market share buyback of US$19.4m

• Underlying NPAT 0.5% to $147.7m vs. $143.5m ests (3% beat)

FY26 guidance was very cautious, with management guiding to flat to slightly lower sales (single digit % change) in the first-half of FY26. Group EBITDA margin expected to be lower due to tariff and volume effects, full-year cost savings of $8-10 million expected.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Reliance Worldwide (RWC)

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Judo Capital FY25 earnings

[8:21 am] Lots of mixed takeaways for this results. Here's how they stack up against Macquarie forecasts:

• Underlying profit before tax up 14% to $125.6m vs. $122m ests (3% beat)

• Gross loans and advances up 16% to $12.5bn, mid-point of previous guidance

• Net interest margin down 1 bp to 2.93% vs. 2.88% ests (5 bp beat)

• CET1 ratio down 160 bps to 13.1% vs. 13.3% ests (20 bp miss)

• 90+ days past due and impaired assets of 2.43% of GLA, up from 2.31% at June-24 but stable vs. 2.46% at March-25

FY26 guidance included:

• Gross loans and advances of $14.2-14.7bn

• Net interest margin of 3.00-3.10% vs. 3.01% ests (4 bp midpoint beat)

• Profit before tax of $180-190m vs. $193m ests (5% miss at midpoint)

Plenty of brokers bullish on Judo, given it trades at a one-year forward PE of ~12x, with forecast EPS CAGR of ~34% over the next three years, according to Macquarie.

This result flagged some decent numbers for FY25, with underlying profit and NIM ahead of expectations. However, FY26 profit before tax guidance represents only 47% year-on-year growth at the midpoint vs. Judo's previous expectations for 50% growth.

Morgan Stanley outlined three potential scenarios heading into the result, with the base case being FY26 PBT growth guidance of 50%, with loans of $14.5-14.8bn and margins of 3.00-3.10%. Today's numbers fall slightly short of the base case.

Source: Morgan Stanley

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Judo Capital (JDO)

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US companies crush earnings expectations

[8:07 am] Over 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 earnings, with numbers smashing market expectations. The blended EPS growth rate came in at 11.7% vs. 4.9% expected at the start of reporting season.

• Record rate of earnings beats: 82% of companies beat EPS estimates, above the one-year average of 77%, with Goldman Sachs noting one of the highest beat frequencies on record.

• Forward outlook improving: Citi’s EPS revisions index is at its highest since Dec-21, and Bloomberg’s measure of corporate guidance vs. consensus sits at its second-highest in nearly four years.

• Macro tailwinds helped: Earnings strength attributed partly to tariff mitigation strategies and a weaker US dollar, which boosted margins.

• Sustainability questioned: Some upgrades reflect a reversal of prior tariff-driven EPS cuts, not just genuine growth momentum.

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Good morning!

[8:05 am] ASX 200 futures are down 23pts (-0.25%) after a relatively quiet overnight session, where major US benchmarks finished little changed.

Today's an even bigger day for corporate earnings, including:

• Amplitude Energy (AEL), Ainsworth (AGI), ARB Corp (ARB), BHP (BHP), Challenger (CGF), Centauri Capital (CNI), CSL (CSL), Emeco (EHL), HMC Capital (HMC), Hub24 (HUB), Judo Capital (JDO), James Hardie (JHX), MacMahon (MAH), Monadelphous (MND), Mystate (MYS), Region Group (RGN), Seek (SEK), Sims (SGM), SRG Global (SRG), Woodside (WDS), Yancoal (YAL)

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.