ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 15th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, July 15. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's blog will be wrapping up at 3:30 pm. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

---

ASX 200 on track to close at fresh all-time highs

[3:32 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.59%) is on track to mark its tenth record high of the year.

What makes today's rally so incredible is that the CBA (+0.35%) is underperforming the broader market, while all three mining heavyweights (BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue) are down 0.7% to 1.4%.

S&P/ASX 200 sector performance as at 3:32 pm

---

CSL nears two-month high

[2:51 pm] CSL opened relatively flat but currently up around 3.2% to $249.42 after the company said it plans to trim its R&D division across six global locations.

The official statement comes a day after the AFR reported its plans to slash around a third of its 2,500 R&D staff.

CSL daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

---

Lithium stocks broadly lower

[2:40 pm] Lithium stocks are trading broadly amid a slight pullback in Chinese lithium carbonate futures, currently down 2.1% to 65,120 yuan a tonne.

---

China stocks slump on weak economic data

[12:45 pm] China's economic data dump was relatively mixed, including:

• China Q2 GDP growth of 1.1% Q/Q. vs ests 0.9%

• China June industrial production up 6.8% year-on-year vs. 5.6% ests

• China June retail sales up 4.8% year-on-year vs. 5.6% ests

• China fixed asset investment up 2.8% YTD vs. 3.7% ests

The weaker-than-expected data drove the Shanghai Composite sharply lower, down as much as 0.80% from a breakeven start to the day.

Shanghai Composite total return intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

---

Nasdaq futures surge on Nvidia-China news

[12:38 pm] Nasdaq futures gained 0.75% between 11:40 am 11:55 am AEST after news that Nvidia will restart sales of its H20 graphics processing units (GPUs) to China.

"The U.S. government has assured NVIDIA that licenses will be granted, and NVIDIA hopes to start deliveries soon. Finally, Huang announced a new, fully compliant NVIDIA RTX PRO GPU that “is ideal for digital twin AI for smart factories and logistics," noted the company's blog.

Nasdaq 100 futures intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

---

Strong day for tech stocks

[11:42 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Info Tech Index is currently the best performing sector by a wide margin, up 2.03% (vs. S&P/ASX 200 up 0.40%).

Heavyweight names like Wisetech (+1.5%), Xero (+0.8%) and Technology One (+0.80%) are ticking higher, while notable gainers include Life360 (+7.6%) and Hansen Technologies (+5.6%).

The ASX 200 Tech Index is coming off a four day losing streak, with today's gains bringing it back within 3% of all-time highs.

S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index chart (Source: TradingView)

---

Small caps making moves

[11:18 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

---

Consumer sentiment ticks higher despite RBA disappointment

[10:50 am] Westpac's Consumer Sentiment Index rose 0.6% to 93.1 in July, but the RBA’s hold decision dampened what could have been a stronger result.

Here are some of the key takeaways from Westpac's monthly consumer sentiment report:

• Family finances sub-index rose 5% overall, with a much stronger 12% gain among those surveyed before the RBA announcement.

• Interest rate expectations continue to shift lower, despite the hold: Mortgage Rate Expectations Index fell 1.7% to 83.1, a new 13-year low and 60% of mortgage holders expect rates to be lower in a year.

• Buyer sentiment softened slightly, with the ‘time to buy a major item’ sub-index down 2.6% to 97.6, reversing part of last month’s 7.5% jump.

• Mixed views on economic outlook: Near-term expectations rose 1.8% (to 94.1) and Longer-term outlook fell 2.8% (to 93.4), weighed by tariff uncertainty and global economic concerns.

• House price expectations dipped 2.2% to 162.8, still strong but off a 12-year high; 75% of consumers expect further price gains.

• Unemployment Expectations Index rose 1.1% to 128.7, indicating slightly more consumers expect rising joblessness, but still aligned with long-run averages.

Australia consumer sentiment chart | Source: Westpac Economics

---

Tyro smashed on RBA proposal

[10:37 am] Shares in Tyro Payments tumbled as much as 14% in early trade after the RBA proposed a sweeping ban on card surcharges, covering all debit and credit transactions on the eftpos, Mastercard, and Visa networks, well beyond the government's initial debit-only scope.

The story was first covered by the AFR this morning, which also noted:

• Consumers could save $1.2 billion annually, and businesses another $1.2 billion if lower interchange fees are passed through — a move aimed at reducing payment system inefficiencies.

• Banks would be forced to publish hidden merchant fees, with the RBA expecting 90% of Australian businesses to benefit, especially small businesses, who could use the transparency to better negotiate.

• Interchange fees on domestic and overseas-issued cards to be cut, with changes expected to benefit merchants and rebalance the cost burden in the payments ecosystem.

• Consultation open until August 26, with final rules expected by year-end and implementation from July 1, 2026 following a six-month transition period.

---

Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:31 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade. A few risk-on names ticking higher, Metcash trades ex-dividend and lithium/gold trading lower.

---

Hub24 at all-time highs, crosses $100 for the first time

[10:10 am] Hub24 opened 5.0% higher at $99.31 and briefly rallied 8.6% to $102.66.

The stock is in a volatile state as it digests the better-than-expected 4Q25 inflows and funds under management update.

Most analysts including Wilsons and Citi have been downgrading their ratings to Neutral due to valuation, but raising target prices to reflect the company's momentum.

---

Analysts take on Hub24

[9:52 am] RBC Capital Markets’ analyst Jack Lynch says Hub24 delivered 4Q25 net inflows ~9% above consensus expectations, driven by an additional $300 million from EQT transitions, lifting the total to $5.3 billion (vs prior guidance of $5 billion). Other highlights include:

• No signs of elevated outflows from the high-net-worth segment, which contrasts with broader market trends.

• Lead indicators remain strong, with gross inflows (ex-transitions) accelerating to 7.5% of starting FUA.

• Adviser growth of ~13%, indicating continued momentum and distribution strength.

Likewise, E&P’s Olivier Coulon and Shankari Thayakaran said it was a "strong result showing better near term trends on net flows (as a result of lower outflows) than Netwealth. We expect Hub24 likely to outperform today."

---

Microcaps of interest

[9:45 am] Two interesting trading updates from sub $50 million market cap companies.

• CleanSpace reported unaudited FY25 revenue growth of 26% to $19.7 million, says its focus on industrial markets "continues to bear fruit as it executes on its multi-year growth strategy." The respiratory protection equipment company has a market cap of $43 million (it listed in late 2022, after raising $131m at $4.41 per share for an indicative market cap of $339m)

• AVA Group reported unaudited FY25 revenue growth of 5% to $31.6 million, EBITDA of $2.0 million (vs. EBITDA loss in FY24), sales backlog of $6.4 million (down from $8.5m a year ago) and $5.4 million in cash. The company has a market cap of just $30 million.

---

Ooh!Media loses Auckland Transport contract

[9:27 am] oOh!media says it has been informed by the Auckland Transport Authority that its contract, which was due to expire on 30 September 2025, will not be renewed.

"While oOh!media is disappointed with this outcome, it has planned for this eventuality and is confident in maintaining a leading position in the New Zealand Out of Home market," the company said in a statement.

The contract represented 4% of the company's FY24 reported revenue.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Ooh!Media (OML)

---

Australian Strategic Materials achieves first heavy rare earth sale

[9:22 am] Australian Strategic Materials announced its first sale of heavy rare earths, consisting of 2 kilograms of terbium (Tb) and 2 kilograms of dysprosium (Dy) metal to Neo Performance Materials, a global supplier of advanced materials.

The rare earths were produced at the company's Korean Metals Plant, marking a significant milestone in its ongoing development of heavy rare earth capabilities.

The announcement also highlighted:

• Complete the sale of 10 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) to Neo

• Signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Neo to formalise a broader strategic partnership

• The MOU will explore sales of light and heavy rare earths from ASM's Korean Metals Plant to Neo's magnet and magnetic powder manufacturing facilities, sale of gallium from Neo to ASM and tolling of Neo-supplied rare earths

The announcement appears largely symbolic given the small volumes involved, but marks an important operational milestone.

It's worth noting that ASM shares experienced a 27% one-day rally on 6 June after the company announced two binding sales purchase orders with US and German customers.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Australian Strategic Materials (ASM)

---

Hub24 delivers record inflows in FY25

[9:10 am] Hub24 reported its June quarter platform data, including:

• Q4 FY25 platform net inflows of $5.3bn, up 7% vs. the prior period

• Record annual platform net inflows of $19.8bn, up 25% vs. the prior period

• Total funds under administration up 30% to $136.4bn as at 30 June 2025

Citi analysts (as at 2 Jul) forecast 4Q25 net flows of $4.9bn and annual platform net inflows of $19.3bn. This implies quarterly and annual flows were a respective 8.1% and 2.5% ahead of their estimates.

In the same note, the analysts downgraded Hub24 from Buy to Neutral due to valuation concerns, but raised their target price from $71.50 to $89.80.

The stock closed at $94.50 on Monday, and within 2% of last week's record $95.88 close.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Hub24 (HUB)

---

Atturra provides mixed FY25 update

[9:02 am] Atturra says its unaudited FY25 underlying EBITDA will exceed $31 million, within its guidance range of $31-34 million.

Revenue for FY25 is expected to exceed $300 million, up more than 20% year-on-year but marginally lower than its guidance range of $305-320 million.

Looking ahead, the company expects FY26 revenue and EBITDA growth to exceed 20%, based on a "combination of organic growth and acquisitions already completed in FY25."

The update noted "over $89 million in cash and $35 million in undrawn debt facilities" to pursue additional acquisitions.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Atturra (ATA)

---

Newmont CFO departure

[8:57 am] Newmont announced the resignation of CFO Karyn Ovelmen, effective 11 July. She joined the company as Executive Vice President and CFO in June 2023.

Newmont has commenced a search for a permanent CFO, with current Chief Legal Officer Peter Wexler to serve as interim CFO.

---

RBC Capital lifts S&P 500 target

[8:55 am] RBC Capital upgraded its 2025 S&P 500 target from 5,730 to 6,250 but warns this implies limited upside from current levels through year-end.

The S&P 500 closed at 6,268 last night and within 0.2% of last Thursday's record close of 6,268.

The analysts noted:

• In years with real GDP between 1.1–2.0%, the S&P typically falls 3.4%

• But in years preceding GDP in that range (as expected for 2026), the index historically gains ~8%, implying a potential S&P level of 6,352 in 2025

---

US market positioning and sentiment dynamics

[8:52 am] A few mixed views around positioning and sentiment on Wall Street:

• JPMorgan notes cautious client behavior, with hedge fund net positioning down 4% week-on-week, sitting at the 64th percentile over the past year, suggesting some investors are fading the recent rally despite medium-term optimism.

• Goldman Sachs flags dealers are increasingly short gamma, implying greater near-term upside risk due to the potential for volatility-driven positioning shifts.

• CTAs could provide further upside fuel, with potential $31bn of buying this week and up to $132bn over the next month, highlighting systematic flows as a bullish near-term force.

• Jefferies notes a 5% month-to-date drop in the US Market Neutral Momentum Index, one standard deviation move, which historically precedes a 12.5% gain over 12 months, potentially signalling a broadening of market leadership.

• AAII bull-bear spread posted two consecutive positive readings for the first time since January, though ticked slightly lower last week, suggesting sentiment is elevated but not euphoric.

Overall, positioning appears to be relatively light but technical and flow-driven dynamics point to near-term upside.

---

Alcoa slumps on smelter delay

[8:49 am] Alcoa's San Ciprián smelter restart has been delayed to mid-2026, following a Spain-wide power outage on 28 April, which significantly impacted both the refinery and smelter at the site.

The smelter operates under a 75:25 joint venture with IGNIS EQT.

• Restart paused pending clarity from the Spanish Government on the cause of the outage and actions to prevent future disruptions.

• Alcoa expects a pre-tax net loss of $90-110m, or $0.35–0.42 per share, and cash outflows of $110-130m, due to delayed revenue now pushed into 2026.

• Worsened outlook vs prior guidance, as restart and production timelines have been pushed out, increasing the financial drag from the idle asset.

NYSE-listed Alcoa shares finished the overnight session down 4.1%.

---

US June CPI report preview

[8:38 am] US June CPI report will be a major catalyst for markets and the Fed's near-term rate path. The data will be released tonight at 10:30 pm AEST.

• Core CPI forecast to accelerate from 0.1% month-on-month in May to 0.3% in June

• This will lift annualised core to 3.0%, the highest since February

• Headline inflation also forecast to accelerate to 0.3% month-on-month in June, lifting the annual rate to 2.7%

• Analysts see inflation upside largely concentrated in core goods amid ongoing tariff impact

• Market is currently pricing in a ~7% chance if a July cut and a ~60% chance of a September cut

---

Good morning!

[8:30 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are currently up 51pts (+0.59%) after major US benchmarks finished broadly higher, with the S&P 500 (+0.14%) closing within an arms reach of all-time highs.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.