Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 edges lower, Copper prices surge on Trump tariffs

ASX 200 futures are down 7pts (-0.08%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• US stocks finished relatively flat amid a choppy but mostly uneventful session

• Trump extends the reciprocal tariff deadline to 1 August, expects more trade deals to be announced in the coming days

• Copper prices surged to record levels after Trump announced plans for a 50% tariff on copper

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 flat after a largely sideways session (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished mixed in a relatively flattish trading, where stocks retreated from record levels in the previous session

• Today’s big story – White House signaling more deal announcements in the works as reciprocal tariff deadline extended to 1-Aug, Trump also announced plans for a 50% tariff on copper and threatened  to set pharma tariffs at 200%

• A calm session all-things considered, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 up 0.25%, VIX lower and slight up

• Bank of America lifts S&P 500 target from 5,600 to 6,300, offered 12-month target of 6,600 on corporate resilience (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs raises S&P 500 target, citing anticipated Fed rate cuts and strong large-cap stock fundamentals (RT)

• Markets have largely shrugged off tariffs, anticipating further dealmaking and extension of deadlines (AX)

• COMEX copper prices hits record high after Trump said he will impose 50% tariff on copper imports (RT)

• Gold ETFs drew largest inflow in five years during first half of 2025, WGC says (YF)

• Fewer stocks are reaching new highs alongside the S&P 500, raising concerns about market concentration in Big Tech (BBG)

STOCKS

• Amazon Prime Day spending is down 14% in early hours of event compared to 2024 (BBG)

• SpaceX valuation said to hit around $400bn in share sale (BBG)

• Tesla board under renewed pressure to get Musk to pull back from politics (WP)

• Samsung operating profit falls by more than expected amid inventory write-downs, launches buyback (BBG)

• Exxon Mobil warned that lower oil and gas prices could reduce its second-quarter earnings by about $1.5bn (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Potential Powell successor Warsh says both rates and balance sheet should be lower, argues tariffs not inflationary (BBG)

• RBA unexpectedly leaves cash rate unchanged, opting for patience amid inflation and global uncertainty (BBG)

• RBNZ expected to leave rates unchanged Wednesday though further easing expected (BBG)

• BOK expected to leave rates unchanged Thursday amid renewed focus on household debt (RT)

TARIFFS

• Trump threatens to impose up to 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals 'very soon' (CNBC)

• Trump issued the first round of his promised tariff letters on Monday, beginning with setting a base 25% rate for Japan and South Korea, also extended the 9-Jul deadline to 1-Aug, and said the line was "not 100% firm" (BBG)

• EU nears trade deal with US as Germany seeks quick resolution, France prefers pushing back against Trump demands (WSJ)

• China sends new trade warning after Trump letters to Japan, South Korea (YF)

• China warns US against restoring tariffs next month, threatening retaliation on supply chains deals excluding it (RT)

ECONOMY

• Germany's exports declined for the second straight month in May due to higher US tariffs, indicating potential stagnation (BBG)

• Japan exports steadied in first 20 days of June following prior month's contraction (BBG)

• Chilean copper mines see export revenue surge, production increase drives best month in years (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• Capstone Copper receives DIA environmental approval for the Mantoverde Optimised project (CSC) 

• GQG Partners reports 30-Jun funds under management of $172.4bn, up 2.3% vs month-ago of $168.5bn (GQG)

• West African Resources reports Q2 gold production of 45,600 ounces, reaffirms FY25 guidance (WAF)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Copper: Copper CFDs finished the overnight session up 9.8% to US$5.51/lb, after briefly spiking as much as 17% to US$5.87/lb. Interestingly, this did not draw much of a reaction for the Copper Miners ETF (COPX), which finished the session 0.7% higher, after a brief 3.2% rally.

• Lithium: The sector continues to show signs of a potential bottom, with Chinese lithium carbonate futures trading 63,880 yuan a tonne, up from late-June lows of 58,000 yuan. The Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) rallied 4.8% overnight to close at its highest level since March. Expect this to drive positive flows for local names like Pilbara Minerals and Liontown.

• Gold: CFD prices pulled back 1.0% overnight to US$3,302. This drove an outsized move for gold miners, with the GDX down 4.4% to a near one-month low.

BROKER MOVES

• A2 Milk downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target remains at $8.20 (Citi)

• Evolution Mining downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $6.95 from $7.20 (GS)

• Newmont downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $94.30 from $96.80 (GS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 9 Jul: None

• Thu 10 Jul: None

• Fri 11 Jul: Turners Automotive Group (TRA) – $0.083

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: China Inflation (Jun)