ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 11th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, August 11. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

SGH delivers FY26 growth and margin expansion in line with guidance

[9:19 am] FY26 earnings grew in line with guidance on margin expansion at Boral and WesTrac, with revenue and NPAT slightly below ests, plus a $500m buy-back announced.

• Revenue down 2% to $10.56bn vs. $10.72bn ests (1% miss)

• Underlying EBIT up 1% to $1.55bn vs. $1.58bn ests (2% miss), with margin up 40bp to 14.7%

• EBITDA up 2% to $2.08bn vs. $2.10bn ests (1% miss)

• Underlying NPAT flat at $920m vs. $949.4m ests (3% miss)

• Final DPS of 32 cents fully franked, taking full-year dividends to 64 cents, up 3%

• FY27 guidance is for flat to low single-digit EBIT growth, versus ests of 3.7%

Overall, this looks like a fairly soft FY26 result. The full-year dividend of 64 cents is just shy of Macquarie's 65 cents estimate, and FY27 EBIT guidance of flat to low single-digit growth is a miss vs. ests of 5.8%.

Company page: SGH Limited (SGH)

Southern Cross FY26 NPAT misses on tough ad market

[9:17 am] FY26 revenue fell on a contracting TV and audio market, with underlying NPAT well short of ests, though cost discipline and merger synergies delivered EBITDA above revised guidance.

• Gross revenue down 4.5% to $1.87bn, in line with ests

• EBITDA (ex-items) down 15.8% to $191.9m vs. $187.6m ests (2% beat)

• NPAT (ex-items) of $42.8m vs. $53.0m ests (19% miss)

• Advertising revenue down 4.8% to $1,666.7m as the TV market contracted 9.9% and metro audio fell 6.8%, partly offset by share gains

• Group digital revenue up 11% to $320m, with audio digital growth outpacing broadcast decline for the first time, and reported leverage at 1.8x

• Merger synergies of $30m delivered a year early, with an expanded program now targeting $145-150m of annualised savings

• Q1 FY27 has TV revenue tracking flat year-on-year, audio up low single digits and publishing stable, though conditions are expected to stay subdued

Company page: Southern Cross Media Group (SXL)

Life360 Q2 EBITDA smashes expectations on advertising surge

[9:12 am] Q2 revenue and adjusted EBITDA beat as the company crossed 100 million monthly active users, with advertising revenue up more than fourfold and FY26 guidance reaffirmed.

• Revenue up 38% to US$159m vs. US$156.5m ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted EBITDA up 53% to US$31.1m vs. US$25.5m ests (22% beat)

• Adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.6% vs. 16.3% ests (330 bp beat)

• Subscription revenue up 31% to US$115.6m, with advertising revenue up 315% to a record US$22.0m

• Global MAU of 102.4m, up 16% year-on-year, in line with ests

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed at US$650-685m revenue (midpoint 1% below US$671.8m ests) and US$130-140m adjusted EBITDA (midpoint in line with US$135.6m ests)

Interestingly, Nasdaq-listed Life360 shares are down 25.4% after hours despite all numbers reading ahead or in-line with market expectations.

Company page: Life360 (360)

Chrysos' PhotonAssay adoption drives 68% EBITDA growth

[9:07 am] FY26 revenue and EBITDA landed at the upper end of guidance on record sample volumes, though NPAT missed on higher costs, with FY27 guidance framing another year of strong growth.

• Revenue up 33% to $88.1m, in line with ests of $89.2m and at the upper end of the $80-90m guidance range

• EBITDA up 68% to $27.2m, just shy of ests of $27.7m and topping the $20-27m guidance range

• NPAT of $1.8m, 31% below ests of $2.6m

• 24 new lease agreements signed in FY26 plus four post-period, taking total contracted units to 87, with sample volumes up 67% to a record 11.3 million

• Operating cashflow positive with $17.9m net inflows, and funding strengthened to $25.9m cash plus $140m undrawn debt

• FY27 guidance of $108-118m revenue and $35-42m EBITDA, vs. ests of $113.8m and $40.2m (1% and 4% miss respectively)

Company page: Chrysos Corporation (C79)

RBA set for hawkish hold with tightening bias intact

[9:05 am] The RBA is expected to hold the cash rate at 4.35% for a second straight meeting today, while keeping the door open to further hikes as core inflation stays sticky.

• Economists and traders expect the cash rate held at 4.35%, with focus on updated quarterly forecasts for signs the board is done after 75 basis points of hikes this year

• The trimmed mean gauge has stayed above the 2-3% target midpoint since late 2021, with Australia's core inflation among the highest in major developed economies

• Money markets are pricing around a 60% chance of a hike by December, with AMP's Shane Oliver tipping one more move by year-end

• Unemployment sits at 4.4% vs. the RBA's May forecast of 4.2%, though the past two reports showed strong hiring

Source: Bloomberg

Brent rallies, S&P 500 Energy sector posts best day of the year

[8:58 am] Brent rallied 6.6% overnight to US$87.87 a barrel, now up 11.6% in the last four sessions, but still down 13.7% from the recent 23 July high (US$102).

The S&P 500 energy sector (+4.6%) posted its best day of the year. It's an interesting relationship here, where Energy equities have refused to underwrite the geopolitically-driven spike in oil prices, but even at US$80 a barrel plenty of these names are printing free cash flow yields into the mid-teens, which argues for a higher valuation. With no end in sight to the US-Iran negotiations, energy stocks are slowly but surely closing in on recent highs, even with oil trading well below its late-March peak of US$120.

S&P 500 Energy sector daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

US-Iran Hormuz talks stall on hardening demands

[8:54 am] Crude rallied after both sides piled on new conditions, with Trump now seeking compensation from Tehran and Iran tying any reopening of the strait to the US lifting its blockade, dimming hopes of a quick deal.

• Iran demanded the US lift its naval blockade, withdraw forces from its vicinity and permanently end the war before reopening the strait

• Trump demanded compensation from Iran for people killed by its roadside bombs and conflicts, later expanding it to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza

• Trump signalled a "low-key" approach, favouring economic pressure over fresh strikes, pointing to Iran's 77% inflation and a rial down more than 10% from prewar levels

• Iran's oil exports have decelerated sharply, with Kpler estimating flows down roughly 40% this month versus July to about 500,000 barrels a day as the blockade keeps terminals idle

• US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983 as the conflict drags on

• Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reshuffled military leadership with six senior appointments and decrees calling for readiness for offensive operations, seen as a shift to a more hawkish stance

Nvidia lines up US$500bn to make its AI chips a financeable asset class

[8:49 am] Nvidia has teamed with six Wall Street asset managers on a financing push designed to let customers borrow against compute the way they would against real estate or toll roads.

• Nvidia signed MOUs with Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to build financing platforms for its customers

• The effort aims to mobilise more than US$500bn in third-party capital for hyperscalers, frontier AI labs and enterprises to build data centres and buy Nvidia hardware

• The structure lets end users secure financing without tapping their own balance sheets, using institutional credit, insurance and private capital to underwrite GPUs

• Huang called it the first time technology chips have become an investable asset class, arguing broad adoption and transferability let lenders treat compute as revenue-generating and long-lived

• BlackRock's Fink likened it to the birth of mortgage-backed securities in the 1970s, while Blackstone's Gray said AI use across portfolio companies has surged sevenfold this year

EM stock valuations sink below half the S&P 500's for first time in decades

[8:48 am] Emerging-market equities are now valued at less than half US multiples, prompting some investors to hunt for value beyond the AI-heavy names, particularly in Latin America.

• The MSCI EM Index trades at 9.9x forward earnings vs. more than 20x for the S&P 500, the first time in at least two decades the gap has been this wide

• The record discount reflects the US AI bull market and deepening China and Hong Kong underperformance, with those two more than a fifth of the EM benchmark

• MSCI EM has rallied 19% this year, mostly from SK Hynix, Samsung and TSMC, but has risen just 3% since late February vs. 13% for the S&P 500

• Valuations are widely dispersed, with Taiwan, India and Hong Kong tech at 17-18x while Brazil sits at 8.2x, Argentina 8.6x, Philippines 9.5x, Egypt 8x and Turkey 4x

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman's Varadhan says stay invested, sees three tailwinds

[8:48 am] Goldman's co-head of global banking and markets is telling worried investors to stay in the market, pointing to steady rates, potential AI disinflation and lower oil.

• Varadhan does not expect the Fed to hike in the latter half of this year, seeing rates staying on hold against market pricing that reflects some tightening risk

• He sees oil settling well below US$70 a barrel, maybe lower, by late 2026, easing inflation pressure, though WTI climbed back above US$80 Monday on doubts over a US-Iran Hormuz deal

• AI should eventually turn disinflationary as the infrastructure build-out gives way to productivity gains, even if the near-term capex strains resources

• He stays constructive on credit, with economic strength keeping spreads contained and expected defaults fairly low despite heavy issuance

Source: CNBC

JPMorgan lifts S&P 500 target to 8,000 as AI capex pays off

[8:47 am] JPMorgan has raised its year-end forecast for a second time in two months, citing strong earnings and evidence that hyperscaler AI spending is being monetised.

• The Lakos-Bujas team lifted its target to 8,000 from 7,800, implying about 3% upside from Friday's close and sitting slightly above the average of 20 strategists polled by Bloomberg

• Q2 earnings showed AI hyperscaler capex is being monetised through customer demand, with stronger cloud growth and rising backlogs at Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft easing return-on-capital worries

• As backlogs convert to recognised revenue, cloud growth should stay supported and help validate rising AI capex, the team said

• S&P 500 earnings surged 32%, one of the best increases on record, as the index reclaimed record highs

Source: Bloomberg

US high-grade bond issuance hits fastest pace since January

[8:45 am] Nineteen companies stormed the US investment-grade market on Monday, the most in seven months, as companies rushed to raise capital ahead of this week's inflation data.

• 19 issuers ranging from utilities to overseas banks to Tyson Foods offered a combined US$27.6bn of notes, the busiest session since 20 deals priced on January 5

• Borrowers moved ahead of US inflation reports due this week, with rate-hike bets pared after Friday's weak jobs report sending yields lower and opening a hospitable window

• Last week saw US$80bn of supply, the third-highest of 2026, with dealers tipping a further US$40bn this week, well above August's post-2019 monthly average of US$95bn

• US$1.4tn of high-grade notes have priced so far this year as of Friday, 9% above the 2020 pace which ended at a record US$1.75tn

• Global issuance hit US$5tn on Monday, reaching the mark more than a month faster than last year's record

• AI-related spending and active government sellers are fuelling supply, with Amazon the only corporate among the five largest syndicated bond issuers alongside Germany, France, Italy and the EU

Source: Bloomberg

Downside protection dumped as traders chase the rally

[8:45 am] Demand for hedges against a stock market drop has slumped to its lowest since Trump's tariff backdown last year, as under-exposed investors rotate into upside calls to catch record highs.

FOMO takes over as Wall Street's rally driver

[8:41 am] Options-market signals are flashing their most bullish readings in years as under-exposed investors scramble for upside, prompting some to warn of overbought conditions.

• The one-month average daily S&P 500 call-to-put ratio has risen to 0.9, among the most bullish readings in at least four years

• Short-term S&P 500 call skew soared to a two-year high last week, reflecting investors paying up for bets on a fast, sharp rally, per Susquehanna

• The Bullish Percent Index rose above 70%, pointing to overbought conditions, LPL Financial notes

Source: Reuters

Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 3 pts (-0.03%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks stalled just under Friday's record, with the S&P 500 finishing flat as an oil-led energy rally offset weakness across AI infrastructure and mega-cap tech

  • S&P 500 (-0.06%), Nasdaq (-0.32%), Dow (-0.11%), Russell 2000 (-0.56%)

• Nvidia signed agreements with six of the world's largest asset managers to mobilise more than US$500bn of third-party capital for AI infrastructure

• Brent rallied ~6% to US$87 a barrel after Tehran said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until Washington meets its conditions, reviving inflation and Fed rate-hike concerns