ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 10th February

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, February 10. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 higher but off best levels

[2:10 pm] ASX 200 currently up 0.17%, down from session highs of 0.63%. This follows a 1.85% bounce on Monday, which marks the best one-day session since 10-Apr-25. Decent breadth, with 132 constituents (66%) trading higher, with notable strength from a few badly beaten sectors like Tech (+2.0%), Healthcare (+1.1%) and Discretionary (+0.8%). Lots of wild movers today, including:

• Steadfast (-10.2%) and AUB Group (-6.0%) battered after OpenAI approved first AI insurance app. Though both stocks dipped as much as 13-14% in early trade, so bouncing quite strongly

• G8 Education (-16.2%) now down 25% YTD and down 60% in the past twelve months after flagging a $350m impairment as well as cancelling its buyback and final dividend

• PMET (-10.7%) dipped after raising C$130 million

• Amotiv (-3.3%) delivered a relatively in-line 1H26 result. The stock opened 3.9% higher and has spent the session fading into negative territory

Reporting season is set to pick up tomorrow, with notable reporters including CSL, Evolution Mining, AGL and SGH. That's all for today.

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Analysts' take on CAR Group

[1:23 pm] Car Group reported a relatively in-line 1H26 result, along with management reaffirming full-year guidance of double-digit growth in revenue and NPAT. The stock rallied 9.9% amid a broad-based bounce for the broader tech sector. Here's what analysts are thinking:

• Morgan Stanley retained Overweight, lowered target from $43.00 to $38.00, citing AutoGate traction and CRM-driven structural moat, with AI disruption risks elevated but manageable and valuation attractive relative to the medium-term growth outlook.

• Jarden retained Overweight, lowered target from $33.75 to $30.20, noting H2 upside hinges on dealer pricing and mix improvements, with operating leverage sensitive to the Australian cost base and near-term earnings weighed down by FX and AI-related uncertainty.

• E&P retained Neutral, lowered target from $36.10 to $34.20, highlighting the Brazil AI hub as a constructive first step and data scale as a competitive buffer, though FX headwinds and broader sector dynamics cap near-term conviction.

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Tech has a lot of work cut out for it

[1:20 pm] Oh yeah so my colleague Warren will be having a crack at the blog most days. Please show him some love.

The S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index is trading 2.0% higher, and still pushing fresh intraday highs. It's now up 5.4% in the last two days, but still down 7.8% in the past week.

This line from Macquarie's report on REA results really resonates with the state of play for tech: "We could become more constructive on REA, with medium term earnings intact, and whilst trading on 32x P/E 12-months forward, below both the past 12-months average (44x) and versus pre-COVID (35x). We are however cautious on valuation discovery / re-rating catalysts with AI uncertainty."

Most larger tech stocks will probably screen quite cheap vs. historicals, but there's just this massive overhang from AI. Last week it was software, today it's insurance brokers and tomorrow ... it might be another sector.

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Tech stocks lift ASX 200 higher

[12:21 pm] Tech extends rebound with a second straight gain, up +1.1%.

By Warren Masilamony

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Challenger in talks for 25% Pepper Money stake, shares rebound

[12:01 pm] Challenger entered advanced talks to acquire Pepper Money alongside Pepper Group on Monday, proposing a $2.60 per share cash offer for up to a 25% minority stake and flagging the deal would be EPS accretive and funded without an equity raise. Brokers were cautiously supportive of the strategic push to secure fixed income asset access, but want clearer detail on Challenger’s rights, influence over origination and the reliability of loan flow given its minority position.

• Goldman Sachs retained Buy, target unchanged at $9.30. Sees the proposal as aligned with Challenger’s inorganic growth strategy and EPS accretive without an equity raise but says the return profile and access to origination flow need more clarity.

• CLSA retained Outperform, target unchanged at $9.00. Frames it as vertical integration into loan origination but is cautious on a minority stake limiting reliable asset access, with no change to earnings or valuation until terms are clearer.

• JPMorgan retained Overweight, target unchanged at $10.00. Likes the fit with capital rule changes favouring fixed income, expects improved asset supply and EPS uplift via equity accounting, while noting the loan mix is shifting toward asset finance and servicing.

• Morgan Stanley retained Equal weight, raised target from $8.50 to $8.70. Agrees the strategy broadly fits the non-bank lending push and EPS accretion helps, but wants stronger justification for the capital deployment and clearer disclosure on Challenger’s role in origination.

CGF recovered +3% to $8.92 after Monday’s fall of -3.5%. PPM is trading marginally lower today at -0.6% at $2.24.

By Warren Masilamony

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AUB, Steadfast slide as OpenAI approves ChatGPT insurance quotes

[11:27 am] Insurance brokers AUB Group and Steadfast Group traded down about -12% after OpenAI approved an insurer-built app that generates home insurance quotes inside ChatGPT.

• Insurer-built app lets users get personalised home insurance quotes without leaving the ChatGPT interface, with policy purchase functionality expected to be added.

• Tuio was the first insurer to go live, marking a shift toward quote discovery happening inside AI tools rather than traditional search and broker funnels.

• OpenAI linked the move to traction in AI sourced traffic and indicated more insurance apps are in the pipeline, which keeps the market focused on potential distribution disruption risk

AUB is trading at $24.2 and SDF at $4.3 in morning trade.

By Warren Masilamony

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TWE settles RNDC California dispute, lifts 1H26 EBITS view

[11:10 am] Treasury Wine Estates reached a settlement with RNDC over its California exit, with a US$65 million net cash outflow expected in 2H26 and 1H26 EBITS now guided slightly above the prior range.

• Settlement terms include TWE repurchasing Treasury Americas and Treasury Collective inventory held by RNDC in California, at original sale value net of a confidential settlement amount that compensates TWE for the closure impact

• Net cash outflow expected to be about US$65m in 2H26 after allowing for on sale of inventory to other customers commencing this half

• TWE will continue partnering with RNDC in other US markets, with Treasury Americas depletions in RNDC distributed states up 2.7% in 1H26

• 1H26 EBITS expected to be about $236m versus the prior $225m to $235m guidance range, with more detail due at the interim results update on 16 February 2026

Inventory reduction plan outside California remains unchanged and is still expected to be worked through over about two years. TWE is up +5.9% to $5.4 in morning trade.

By Warren Masilamony | Company page: Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

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WEB Travel rebounds after audit shock selloff

[10:38 am] Web Travel Group fell -29% on 6 Feb after the company flagged a Spanish tax audit, before rebounding +22% in last two sessions. Brokers argue the market reaction looked overkill.

• CLSA upgraded to High Conviction Outperform from Outperform, lowered target from $6.70 to $6.55. Says the market overreacted to the audit, expects any liability to be modest, and points to the trading update as support for mid-teens earnings growth into FY30.

• JPMorgan retained Overweight, target unchanged at $6.00. Flags limited audit detail and uncertainty but says reaffirmed FY26 guidance and ongoing TTV growth underpin the outlook, with valuation still undemanding despite sentiment drag.

• Ord Minnett retained Buy, lowered target from $7.00 to $6.16. Expects the audit to be immaterial to group earnings, highlights resilient FY26 guidance, and sees FY27 growth and market share momentum supporting the medium-term thesis.

Valuation screens as depressed against history, with the stock on 11.1x NTM P/E versus a five-year average of 49.0x, and 5.2x EV/EBITDA versus a five-year average of 14.0x.

Consensus estimates have nudged lower, with FY26 revenue trimmed 0.3% to $446.12m and EPS down 0.3% to $0.33.

By Warren Masilamony | Company page: WEB Travel Group (WEB)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:12 am] Treasury Wine is rallying off the back of a US update, while lithium, uranium and copper stocks are trading broadly higher.

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Australian steel outlook improves as demand recovery begins

[9:53 am] UBS says stronger US steel pricing and emerging domestic tailwinds support upgrades to Sims and Vulcan.

• US listed steel mills up ~30% past 3 months, driven by consensus earnings upgrades from higher 2026 US steel prices and sector rotation from Tech.

• Early signs of demand recovery amid manufacturing onshoring, resilient autos demand, stable non-residential construction spending.

• Sims target price lifted 46% to $25.00

• Vulcan upgraded to Buy as Australian housing recovery underway (211k starts +8% YoY in CY26), strong QLD exposure and NZ economy bottomed

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Omega-led JV secures new Taroom Trough acreage

[9:50 am] Award expands operated position in a highly prospective basin, supporting accelerated exploration and domestic gas supply.

• Queensland Government awards 750 sqkm in Taroom Trough to Omega-led JV

  • Omega 45%, Tri-Star 30%, Beach 25%.

• Omega now has 5,041 sqkm, the largest acreage in the basin, when combined with existing PCAs (1,046 sq km) and 19.43% Elixir Energy interest

• Gas from PLR2025-1-9 designated for domestic market, supporting energy security and lower gas prices.

• Preparatory work to incorporate drilling on PLR2025-1-9 within expanded 2026/27 drilling program, supported by Canyon wells, seismic data, and prior drilling at Tasmania-1.

Company page: Omega Oil & Gas (OMA)

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G8 Education flags $350m goodwill impairment

[9:45 am] Non-cash charge reflects challenging sector conditions but FY25 EBIT guidance remains unchanged.

• Anticipated goodwill impairment of ~$350m, non-cash, will not affect FY25 lease-adjusted EBIT guidance of $91–98m.

• Impairment reflects lower projected occupancy, supply-demand dynamics, cost of living pressures, regulatory/compliance costs, and rising wages/operating costs.

• No final dividend will be paid for FY25

• On-market share buyback is paused pending greater clarity on occupancy and sector conditions.

Cancelling a buyback while the stock is trading at ~6 year lows is not a good look. UBS estimates (Nov-25) also expected a full-year dividend of 4 cps (implies final dividend of 2 cps).

Company page: G8 Education (GEM)

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Macquarie 3Q26 update

[9:38 am] Trading conditions remained 'satisfactory', according to CEO Shemara Wikramanayake, with broad-based net profit growth across divisions and robust balance sheet metrics.

• Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) net profit contribution substantially up on 3Q25 and FY26 YTD, driven by divestment gains and performance fees

  • AUM $736.1bn (+3% q/q) with Public Investments $314.2bn (+5%) and Private Markets $421.9bn (+1%).

• Banking & Financial Services (BFS) net profit contribution slightly up on 3Q25, FY26 YTD up on FY25 YTD, supported by loan portfolio and deposit growth

  • Total deposits $204.5bn (+6%), home loans $172.2bn (+7%), business loans $17.5bn (+1%).

• Commodities & Global Markets (CGM) net profit contribution substantially up on 3Q25, with FY26 YTD broadly in line with FY25, supported by Asset Finance income.

• Macquarie Capital net profit contribution substantially up on 3Q25 and FY26 YTD, driven by higher investment-related income from asset realisations and private credit portfolio

• Outlook remains cautious with conservative approach to capital, funding and liquidity, while Macquarie leverages diversified income streams and structural growth opportunities across markets.

Company page: Macquarie Group (MQG)

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Reckon delivers strong growth across cloud and legal segments

[9:30 am] FY25 revenue, EBITDA and NPAT all up year-on-year, driven by Reckon One adoption, Legal Group subscriptions and Cashflow Manager acquisition.

• Revenue up 15% to $62.4m

• EBITDA up 29% to $26.1m

• NPAT up 94% to $7.0m

• Fully franked dividend 2.5 cps was paid in September 2025 as annual dividend

• Outlook: Legal Group growth supported by Billing Workflows in US/UK, Business Group to accelerate transition of legacy customers to Reckon One through 2026–27

Reckon was caught up in the recent 'SaaSpocalypse', down 11.5% between 2-6 February. Today's result values the business ($56m market cap) at 8x FY25 earnings.

Company page: Reckon (RKN)

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PLS secures multi-year spodumene offtake with Canmax

[9:24 am] PLS signed a multi-year offtake agreement with China's Canmax Technologies.

• Two-year binding offtake agreement for 150kt per annum of spodumene concentrate, with an option to supply additional volumes and a 12-month extension.

• Floor price set at US$1,000/t (SC6) with no upside limitation, preserving full exposure to market price gains.

• US$100m unsecured, interest-free prepayment to be offset against concentrate sales, enhancing near-term liquidity.

• Supply to commence in CY26, sourced from Pilgangoora Operation (Pilgan and/or Ngungaju Plant), with optionality to respond to market conditions.

Spodumene prices closed at US$1,965/t on the Shanghai Metals Market on Monday, though PLS achieved average selling prices of US$1,161/t in the December quarter, and US$742/t in the September quarter.

Company page: PLS Group (PLS)

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Region Group 1H26 results

[9:20 am] Strong leasing, rent growth and disciplined capital management underpin higher earnings, with an upgraded FY26 guidance.

• Statutory NPAT $180.0m, including fair value uplift in investment properties.

• FFO up 3.9% from 31-Dec-24 to 7.9 cps

• Distribution of 6.9 cps, representing a payout ratio of 87% of FFO

• Assets under management up 3.9% since Jun-25 to $5.4bn

• Operational highlights: Comparable MAT growth 3.1%, portfolio occupancy 97.7%, specialty rent up 5% since Dec 2022, 177 leasing deals completed with 79% tenant retention.

"We remain concentrated on delivering defensive, resilient cashflows to support secure and growing distributions to our security holder," the company noted in its outlook guidance, with numbers slightly upgraded to:

• FFO of 16 cps vs. prior guidance of 15.9 cps (0.6% upgrade)

• AFFO of 14.1 cps vs. prior guidance of 14 cps (0.7% upgrade)

Company page: Region Group (RGN)

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Santana Minerals expands Rise & Shine exploration target

[9:14 am] A new exploration target has been established at the Rise & Shine prospect, reflecting a new northward target that extends potential mineralised envelop by ~1km.

• New exploration target of 3.6–7.7Mt @ 1.9–2.8 g/t Au

• This is equivalent to 0.52–1.48Moz

• The current Rise & Shine Mineral Resource Estimate (Mar-25) is 26.5Mt @ 2.4 g/t Au for 2.08Moz (indicated and inferred)

• Follow-up drilling program planned to test the new target area

Santana shares are up 9.4% year-to-date and up 9.8% in the past twelve months.

Company page: Santana Minerals (SMI)

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Amotiv 1H26 delivers solid growth despite cost pressures

[9:06 am] Amotiv delivered a clean 1H26 result across all key metrics, despite challenging operating conditions for the automotive/aftermarket sector.

• Revenue up 3.3% to $520.5m vs $512.4m ests (2% beat)

• Underlying EBITA up 1.3% to $98.3m vs $95.7m ests (3% beat)

• Underlying NPATA up 2.2% to $59.7m vs $58.4m ests (2% beat)

• Interim dividend up 8.1% to 20 cps vs. Morgans ests of 18.5 cps (8.1% beat)

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed: Underlying EBITA of $195m, cited 'revenue growth year-on-year' and incremental 10% in annualised gross benefits from Amotiv Unified initiative

At a glance, a very resilient result against a challenging backdrop for the automotive products sector. Amotiv noted a leverage ratio (net debt/EBITDA) of 1.95x, which remains within its targeted range (1.5-2.25x), with further deleveraging expected in the second half.

"Whilst we expect the group may experience improving conditions in 2H FY26 as pricing actions and cost efficiency program benefits are realised, subdued trading conditions within functional accessories may continue to cap the ability to re-rate in the near term," Morgans analysts said in a note prior to the results release.

Company page: Amotiv (AOV)

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Sims expands US scrap operations

[8:55 am] Sims is acquiring Tri Coastal Trading assets while divesting non-core land in Houston.

• Acquiring Tri Coastal Trading (TCT) assets for US$66.5m (~A$94.9m), funded largely by divestment of Houston land portfolio, including Mayo Shell, for at least $100m.

• TCT ships over 350,000 tonnes of processed obsolete scrap annually and operates under an 18-year service agreement with two five-year extensions.

• Acquisition reflects <4x EBITDA multiple and expected ROIC >20% post-synergies.

• Integration and synergies with Sims’ Houston ferrous and non-ferrous businesses expected to lift total EBITDA to over $25m at current commodity prices.

UBS upgraded Sims to Buy from Neutral overnight, lifting their target price to $25.00 from $17.15.

Company page: Sims (SGM)

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OFX explores strategic options amid renewed interest

[8:52 am] The AFR says Western Union is among a handful of parties to have expressed interest in OFX Group.

• Western Union is among parties showing interest as OFX launches a Goldman Sachs-led strategic review, though no binding offers have been submitted.

• OFX shares are trading at 56 cents, down ~80% from peak levels above $3.40 in 2015, reflecting declining trading volumes and weak macro conditions.

• CFO Selena Verth resigned following a warning that H2 net operating income will be lower than the prior corresponding period.

• Western Union previously submitted a takeover offer for OFX between $3.50-3.70 per share back in 2015

Company page: OFX Group (OFX)

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AI momentum accelerates as funding fears ease

[8:46 am] Strong user growth, fresh model launches and deep capital markets access are reinforcing confidence in the AI buildout despite recent volatility.

• OpenAI flagged accelerating traction, with ChatGPT growing over 10% month-on-month to around 800m weekly users, alongside plans to launch an updated chat model this week.

• Oracle rallied after a Buy upgrade, with analysts pointing to a reinvigorated OpenAI, $40bn of cash on hand and a potential $100bn capital raise that reduces funding risk for Oracle’s data centre expansion.

• Alphabet moved to raise about $15bn via a high-grade bond deal, with the longest tranche priced at a 1.2 percentage point premium to Treasuries, following guidance for up to $185bn of AI-related capex this year.

• Debt markets remain highly receptive to AI infrastructure funding, highlighted by Oracle’s recent $25bn bond sale that drew peak demand of $129bn.

• Strategists remain constructive on the theme, with expectations that tech can resume its rally as AI enablers retain strong tailwinds and the AI adopter trade remains underappreciated.

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Software de-rating clashes with earnings strength

[8:44 am] A sharp selloff has reset software valuations and positioning, even as earnings momentum and estimates continue to improve.

• AI competition fears and hyperscaler spending dominated sentiment, with Google and Amazon guiding to $380bn of capex in 2026, lifting total hyperscaler capex guidance to over $650bn, up 60% year-on-year.

• Q4 software EPS rose 24% year-on-year, the strongest growth in 2.5 years and 5% ahead of ests, highlighting a disconnect between fundamentals and recent share price moves.

• Forward earnings expectations are still edging higher, with 2026 software estimates up 1% and 2027 up 0.7% this reporting season.

• Average software valuations have compressed to ~4.4x EV sales, back to levels last seen during the 2014–2016 public cloud uncertainty period.

• Investor positioning has capitulated, with software now under 3% of total US net exposures vs. 7% at the start of 2026 and a historical peak near 18%.

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF is up 6.7% in the last two sessions, but still down 18% in the past month and down 20% YTD.

iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Cyclical rotation gathers momentum

[8:39 am] Markets are increasingly pricing a stronger growth backdrop, with breadth and cyclicals driving recent outperformance.

• Equal-weight S&P 500 hit a record high and outperformed the S&P 500 by ~220 bps last week, extending YTD outperformance to ~430 bp, signalling broadening participation beyond megacaps.

• Pro-cyclical sectors led, with Transports, Housing, Regional Banks and Small Caps among the strongest performers, despite softer labour data being overshadowed by the strongest ISM manufacturing print since 2022.

• Median Russell 3000 earnings growth is running at ~11% year-on-year, the strongest in four years, alongside a sharp improvement in earnings revision breadth across both the S&P 500 and S&P 600.

• Global cyclical indicators continue to firm, with copper up 36% over six months, South Korea’s Kospi up 68% and Financials outperforming across the US, Europe, China and Japan over six and twelve months.

• On a rolling 12-month basis, the Russell 2000 has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 by ~3.5%, with historical rotation patterns suggesting scope for a further 10–20% relative upside, supported by improving margins without significant job cuts.

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Good morning!

[8:31 am] ASX 200 futures are up 31 pts (+0.35%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks higher, with Big Tech, software and resources as notable standouts

• Commodities continue to trend higher, with gold back above US$5,000/oz, silver above US$80/oz and copper crossing US$6/lb

• Tech stocks led to the upside as AI narrative boosted by renewed ChatGPT user growth and rebound in software sentiment

To catch up on all overnight developments, check out today's Morning Wrap.