ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 28th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, August 28. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 1:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Telix regulatory update call highlights

[12:47 pm] Telix shares tanked as much as 20% after the company received a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the FDA regarding its Biologics License Applications (BLA) for TLX250-CDx product.

The CRL cites deficiencies in the package, requests additional data to confirm comparability between clinical trial and commercial drug products, and notes Form 483 deficiencies at two third-party manufacturing partners, which will require remediation.

The key takeaways from the regulatory update call include:

• Type A meeting expected within a few weeks to address CRL issues and likely confirmed within 30 days of submission

• BLA for TLX250-CDx to be resubmitted after addressing CRL issues using analytical and clinical comparability data

• No major delays anticipated from new data collection with FDA review potentially expedited due to breakthrough therapy designation

• FY26 R&D spend expected to grow with revenue and alternative suppliers may be considered if third-party deficiencies persist

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Paladin Energy FY25 earnings call highlights

[12:46 pm] A few takeaways from Paladin Energy's earnings call. Shares slipped 3.2% ($7.27).

• CapEx rises due to expanded plant footprint and higher costs for steel, concrete, and labor

• Drilling to continue at Saloon East and PLS RRR deposits with FID not dependent on results

• Funding for $1.2B CapEx to come from Langer Heinrich cash flow, debt or equity markets, and strategic partnerships

• Long-term contracts planned for PLS project with strong utility demand and first production expected by 2031, supported by ongoing engagement with First Nations and Métis groups

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Medibank slips on industry slowdown

[11:45 am] Medibank shares have tanked 4.7% ($4.90) despite a relatively in-line FY25 result, though there are broad concerns about an increase in ARHI customers downgrading and a deceleration in industry growth in FY26.

• Revenue up 5.2% to $8.60bn vs. $8.66bn est (0.7% miss)

• Operating profit up 8.9% to $762.4m vs. $758.7m est (0.5% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 8.5% to $618.7m vs. $625.3m est (1.0% miss)

• Total dividend up 8.4% to 18 cps vs. Macquarie ests of 18 cps (in-line)

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Small caps making moves

[11:44 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers.

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IDP Education surges

[10:41 am] IDP Education delivered a relatively in-line FY25 result, with slightly softer-than-expected net profit. Though, the mid-point of its FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $115-125 million is higher than consensus of $114.6 million, according to E&P.

"In our view, notwithstanding the challenging environment, the market will like FY26 guidance and we expect the stock to be up today," noted E&P analyst Entcho Raykovski.

The stock is currently up 25%, which improves its year-to-date return to -55% (from -63%). The stock's high short interest (14.2%) is another contributor to the outsized move.

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Qantas soars to all-time highs

[10:31 am] Qantas is trading 13% higher ($12.56) after delivering a relatively in-line FY25 result, with a final dividend of 26.4 cents (vs. 18.3 cents consensus).

RBC Capital Markets analyst Owen Birrell highlighted some mixed takeaways, including:

• Capital returns of ~$400m via fully franked dividends (16.5 cps base + 9.9 cps special) but no buyback.

• FY25 net debt and FY26 capex guidance but within consensus and company guidance

• Results quality was a little mixed, with a slight miss for Qantas Domestic and International and beat for Jetstar

Birrell said the outlook appears constructive, with Qantas noting: “Expect strong travel demand across the portfolio into 1H26; Group Domestic RASK expected to increase 3-5% in 1H26 vs 1H25; Group International RASK expected to increase 2-3% in 1H26 vs 1H25” and "Qantas Loyalty Underlying EBIT expected to grow 10-12% in FY26".

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[10:29 am] Some wild results-driven moves this morning.

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Ramsay Health Care FY25 earnings

[9:52 am] "FY25 revenue was in line with expectations, while underlying EBIT and NPAT were slight beats to market expectations. The final dividend was also higher than expected. However divisionally, the Australian and UK businesses had weaker margins which were offset by better performance from the France business," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Craig Wong-Pan.

• Revenue up 6% to $17.8bn vs. $17.8bn ests (in-line)

• Underlying EBITDA flat at $2.16bn vs. $2.19bn ests (1% miss)

• Underlying NPAT up 2% to $305m vs. $300m ests (2% beat)

• Total dividend flat at 80 cps vs. 81 cps ests (1% miss)

• Management expect activity growth across all regions for FY26

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

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Qantas FY25 earnings

[9:42 am] A few moving parts to the Qantas result, given recent closure of Jetstar Asia and share price run up (up 22% YTD and up 75% in the last twelve months.

• Revenue of $23.83bn vs. $23.92bn est (0.4% miss)

• Underlying of EBIT $2.64bn vs. $2.62bn est (0.8% beat)

• Statutory NPAT of $1.61bn vs. $1.59bn est (1.3% beat)

• Group net Capex $3.90bn vs. guidance $3.8–3.9bn

• Final dividend of 26.4 cps (16.5 cps ordinary and 9.9 cps special)

FY26 guidance noted net capex of $4.1-4.3bn (vs. UBS ests of $4.1bn), targeting transformation of $400m to offset inflationary pressures.

Group Domestic RASK to increase 3-5% in FY26, international RASK up 2-3% vs. UBS estimates of Group RASK to rise 1.4% from 13.4 to 13.6 cents.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Qantas (QAN)

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Telix hit with "Complete Response Letter" from FDA

[9:38 am] Telix has received a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the FDA regarding its BLA for TLX250-CDx and will hold a conference call today at 10:30 AEST.

The CRL cites deficiencies in the CMC package, requests additional data to confirm comparability between clinical trial and commercial drug products, and notes Form 483 deficiencies at two third-party manufacturing partners, which will require remediation.

Telix says these issues are readily addressable, will begin remediation immediately, and confirms the CRL does not affect its FY25 revenue guidance, while patient access will continue via the FDA-approved expanded access program.

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South32 FY25 earnings

[9:35 am] South32 reported a solid FY25 and guided to FY26 alumina production of 5,110kt, in-line with Macquarie estimates.

• Underlying revenue $7.61bn vs. $7.12bn est (7.0% beat)

• Underlying EBITDA $1.93bn vs. $1.81bn est (6.6% beat)

• Underlying earnings $666m vs. $655.5m est (1.6% beat)

• NPAT $213m vs. prior-year loss ($203m)

• Final dividend of 2.6 US cents per share

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: South32 (S32)

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Bank of Queensland upgrades FY earnings guidance

[9:29 am] Bank of Queensland provided a strategy update, which noted:

• Balance sheet strategy: Recycling capital from lower-return home loans into business lending to improve ROE and grow capital-light revenue.

• Equipment finance sale: Exploring a whole-of-loan sale (~$3.8bn) to enhance capital flexibility, support scalable customer growth, and generate capital-light earnings.

• Risk and capital efficiency: Transaction would transfer underlying assets, net interest income, and credit risk to a capital partner, freeing RWA-inefficient and cyclically exposed capital.

• Timing and conditions: Targeted for H1 FY26, subject to acceptable terms, scalability, servicing fees, and Board approval.

The company also guided to cash earnings after tax of $375-385 million, up 9-12% year-on-year and 3% above consensus ($369m).

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

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Medibank FY25 results

[9:24 am] An orderly set of numbers from Medibank, though the stock has run 35% year-to-date and Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight on 30 June.

• Revenue up 5.2% to $8.60bn vs. $8.66bn est (0.7% miss)

• Operating profit up 8.9% to $762.4m vs. $758.7m est (0.5% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 8.5% to $618.7m vs. $625.3m est (1.0% miss)

• Total dividend up 8.4% to 18 cps vs. Macquarie ests of 18 cps (in-line)

Looking ahead, Medibank noted:

• Resident health insurance: Expect moderating industry growth, disciplined market share expansion, and claims per policy growth of 2.6%-2.9%.

• Non-resident health insurance: Target solid gross profit growth.

• Medibank Health: Forecast low double-digit organic operating profit growth and strategic M&A investment toward the top end of the $150–250m FY24–FY26 target.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Medibank (MPL)

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IDP Education FY25 results

[9:15 am] No big surprises from IDP Education, given the trading update on 3 June (which almost halved the share price, down 48%).

• Revenue down 14% to $882.2m vs. $864.2m est (2.1% beat)

• Underlying EBIT down 54% to $119.0m vs. $117.8m est (1.0% beat)

• Adjusted NPAT down 55% to $64.7m vs. $68.3m est (5.3% miss)

• Full-year dividend of 14 cps

A few operational metrics of interest:

• Student placement volumes down 29% year-on-year, language testing down 18%

• Average student placement and language testing prices up 15% and 5% respectively

• Direct costs down 6%, overheads down 5%, more cost reductions to come in FY26

IDP said it expects FY26 adjusted EBIT of $115-125 million, with market volumes to fall 20-30% vs. FY25. Macquarie is expecting FY26 EBIT to fall 44% to $120 million, noting low visibility on volumes, ongoing pricing trends, and likely cost-out.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: IDP Education (IEL)

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Analysts take on Tabcorp

[9:09 am] Tabcorp experienced a massive 24% rally on Wednesday after its FY25 results beat market expectations, with cost savings ahead of guidance and signs of stabilisation.

• JPMorgan: Underweight maintained, target raised to $0.70 from $0.55. Underlying EBITDA fell, structural wagering trends remain negative, and retail uplift is promising but not yet transformative.

• E&P: Positive upgraded from neutral, target raised to $1.04 from $0.73. Digital and international wagering drove a beat, with new team execution encouraging and positive catalysts outweighing headwinds.

• Jarden: Overweight maintained, target raised to $1.00 from $0.75. Cost out and capex control exceeded expectations, structural racing risks remain, and omnichannel focus could support longer-term upside.

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Analysts take on Siteminder

[9:06 am] Siteminder reported a wider-than-expected loss on Wednesday, though underlying metrics like ARR, margins, free cashflow and hotel signings widely positive and accelerating into the second half of 2025. The stock finished the session sharply higher, up 21.1%.

• E&P: Positive maintained, target raised to $7.69 from $6.64. Solid result with Channels Plus gaining momentum and Smart Platform showing commercial traction.

• RBC Capital Markets: Outperform maintained, target raised to $7.50 from $6.00. Growth reacceleration de-risks the story, free cash flow milestone improves investment appeal, and Channels Plus/Dynamic Revenue drive future growth.

• Goldman Sachs: Neutral maintained, target raised to $5.30. Growth acceleration welcomed, Channels Plus seen as most successful launch, and revenue/ARR gap expected to narrow gradually.

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Wesfarmers FY25 earnings

[9:04 am] A rather orderly result from Wesfarmers, with most metrics in-line with market expectations. From a divisional perspective: Bunnings, Kmart & Target and Officeworks EBIT up 4.1%, 8.5% and 3.1% year-on-year respectively, all slightly above consensus, main weakness/underperformance was from WesCEF. Not sure if the market/analysts anticipated the special dividend.

• Revenue up 3.4% to $45.70bn vs. $45.69bn est (in-line)

• EBIT (ex-items) up 4.9% to $4.19bn vs. $4.11bn est (2.0% beat)

• NPAT (ex-items) up 3.8% $2.65bn vs. $2.65bn est (in-line)

• Operating cash flow down 0.6% to $4.57bn

• Full-year dividend up 4.0% to 206 cps vs. Citi ests of 207 cps

• Special dividend of 150 cps (capital return of 110 cps and special dividend of 40 cps)

“The proposed distribution reflects the strength of the Group’s balance sheet and, following completion, we expect to maintain the Group’s current strong credit ratings and balance sheet capacity to take advantage of value accretive opportunities as they arise," said CFO Anthony Gianotti.

Outlook commentary was relatively vague, noting stronger FY26-to-date sales growth for Bunnings, and broadly in-line (half-on-half) growth for Kmart Group and Bunnings.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Wesfarmers (WES)

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Macquarie Technology FY25 earnings

[8:55 am] A rather soft FY25 result from MAQ. Though the outlook commentary is rather concerning and a potential catalyst for some downgrades.

• Revenue $369.6m vs. $370.7m est (0.3% miss)

• EBITDA $113.6m vs. $113.8m est (0.2% miss)

• NPAT $34.9m vs. $35.7m est (2.2% miss)

• Eleven consecutive years of EBITDA growth, with 3-year EBITDA growth of 8.7%

Management said they expect EBITDA to have "marginal growth" in FY26. Morgan Stanley was looking at ~11.5% EBITDA growth in FY26 to $126.6 million. Not a good look.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Macquarie Technology (MAQ)

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GenusPlus Group FY25 earnings

[8:50 am] Very strong numbers from the industrials company, though the share price has surged 75% year-to-date.

“We are proud to report a record-breaking year, achieving another year of strong growth across the business ... the group saw the orderbook grow substantially as the award of significant renewable energy, and rewiring-the- nation projects become a reality," said Managing Director David Riches.

• Revenue up 36% to $751.3m vs. $716.6m est (4.8% beat)

• Normalised EBITDA $67.4m vs. $62.6m est (7.7% beat)

• EPS $0.197 vs. $0.18 est (9.4% beat)

• NPATup 84% to $35.4m

• Total dividend up 44% to 3.6 cps

• Record orderbook $2bn and strong tendered pipeline $2.4bn

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: GenusPlus Group (GNP)

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Nvidia Q2 earnings, shares ease after hours

[8:47 am] Nvidia reported Q2 earnings after market close, shares currently down around 3% post market. Unsurprising to see some weakness amid such a highly anticipated and crowded result. The stock is also up 45% year-to-date and up 108% from Liberation Day lows.

Here are the key numbers and some interesting comments from management:

• Revenue up 56% year-on-year to $46.74bn vs. $46.23bn (1.1% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 54% to $1.05 vs. $1.01 ests (4% beat)

• Data centre revenue up 56% to $41.1bn vs. $41.25bn ests (0.3% miss)

• Q3 revenue guidance $54.0bn vs. $52.5bn ests (2.9% beat)

• “Growth was driven by demand for our accelerated computing platform used for large language models, recommendation engines & generative & agentic AI applications."

• "Production of Blackwell Ultra is ramping at full speed, and demand is extraordinary ...The AI race is on, and Blackwell is the platform at its center."

• “... everything is sold out. H100s are sold out. H200s are sold out. Large CSPs are renting capacity from other CSPs. AI-native startups are scrambling to get capacity so that they can train their reasoning models. Demand is really, really high."

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Brokers upgrades and downgrades

[8:37 am] Here are some of the main broker upgrades and downgrades from a handful of brokers this morning. Interesting to see Lovisa downgraded (like off the back of yesterday's outsized rally), Wisetech downgraded on the FY25 and FY26 guidance miss and Woolworths also facing downgrades after the soft FY25 result and poor trading update.

• Flight Centre upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform; target raised to $16 from $15 (RBC)

• Lovisa Holdings downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target raised to $42 from $35 (MS)

• Lovisa Holdings downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target raised to $40.90 from $33.40 (MQG)

• National Australia Bank upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight; target raised to $42.50 from $39.80 (MS)

• Nine Entertainment downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target down to $1.75 from $1.80 (GS)

• Sigma Healthcare upgraded to Hold from Sell; target raised to $2.85 from $2.00 (BP)

• Supply Network downgraded to Neutral from Positive; target up to $35.38 from $35.06 (E&P)

• Tabcorp upgraded to Positive from Neutral; target up to $1.04 from $0.73 (E&P)

• WiseTech Global downgraded to Neutral from Positive; target cut to $123 from $142 (E&P)

• WiseTech Global downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform; target cut to $120 from $130 (RBC)

• Woolworths Group downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target cut to $30.50 from $33.40 (MS)

• Woolworths Group downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $30.30 from $33.40 (MQG)

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A massive day for earnings

[8:35 am] Today is arguably the most busy day for FY25 results, expect results from:

• Larger Cap Earnings: Atlas Arteria (ALX), Dicker Data (DDR), Eagers Automotive (APE), Fineos (FCL), Generation Development Group (GDG), Harvey Norman (HVN), IGO (IGO), IDP Education (IEL), Lynas (LYC), Medibank (MPL), Nickel Industries (NIC), Paladin Energy (PDN), Perpetual (PPT), Perseus (PRU), Qantas (QAN), Ramsay Healthcare (RHC), Sandfire Resources (SFR), SmartGroup (SIQ), South32 (S32), TPG Telecom (TPG), Wesfarmers (WES).

• Small-to-Mid Cap Earnings: Airtasker (ART), Appen (APX), Australian Ethical (AEF), Beacon Lighting (BLX), Betr Entertainment (BBT), Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT), Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV), Horizon Oil (HZN), Impedimed (IPD), Lifestyle Communities (LIC), Metal Powder Works (MPW), Omni Bridgeway (OBL), Orthocell (OCC), Resimac (RMC), Solvar (SVR), The Star (SGR), Titomic (TTT), Trajan Group (TRJ).

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Good morning!

[8:34 am] ASX 200 futures are up 3 pts (+0.03%) after a relatively quiet overnight session, where the S&P 500 gained 0.24% to log another fresh all-time high.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.