ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 27th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, August 27. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

Atlas Arteria posts a statutory loss on takeover and put option costs

[8:57 am] Atlas Arteria's headline number went red on one-off costs tied to the IFM takeover and the Chicago Skyway put option, while a weaker currency dragged on translated toll revenue.

• Statutory net loss after tax of $73.3m, against a $73.3m net profit in the prior corresponding period

• Underlying net profit after tax up 29% to $94.3m, excluding non-operating costs from the put option extinguishment and the takeover offer

• Proportional toll revenue down 3.9% on unfavourable FX, though up 0.6% on an underlying basis excluding currency

• Proportional EBITDA down 3.6%, with margin up to 76.6% from 76.4%

• Interim distribution of 20.0cps in line with ests, with 2026 guidance reaffirmed at 40.0cps and the 90–110% of free cash flow payout policy retained

• Chicago Skyway put option held by OTPP extinguished for US$100m, settled in August and funded through a new corporate debt facility

• IFM's relevant interest lifted from 34.5% to 67.4% following the unsolicited takeover offer

Company page: Atlas Arteria (ALX)

Smartgroup beats on revenue as EV demand pulls novated leasing higher

[8:56 am] Smartgroup's first half was driven by an EV order surge that management concedes was partly brought forward, with revenue running ahead of expectations while earnings landed close to them.

Note: Below estimates refer to Morgans ests, not consensus.

• Revenue up 13% to $179.5m vs $172.5m ests (4% beat)

• Operating expenses up 12% to $100.6m

• Operating EBITDA up 16% to $73.8m vs $73.4m ests (in line), with margin up 1ppt to 41%

• NPATA up 11% to $42.4m vs $42.1m ests (in line), with statutory NPAT also $42.4m

• Interim fully franked dividend up 10% to 21.5cps vs 20.0cps ests (8% beat), a 70% payout of NPATA

• Novated leasing settlements up 17% and new lease vehicle orders up 34%, with BEV orders up 162% and accounting for 68% of new orders against 27% for ICE

• Fleet vehicles under management up 12% to 36,200 and active packaging customers up 34,000 to 518,000, with direct leasing yield up 2%

• FY27 EBITDA margin target reaffirmed in the mid-40s range, with CY26 capex guided to $13–15m and net debt at just 0.2x EBITDA

Company page: Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ)

Interesting comments from Nvidia management

[8:51 am] Management talk the durability of the demand cycle while flagging that supply and input costs, not orders, are the binding constraint.

• On the FY28 outlook: "We expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028. This is a supply-constrained outlook"

• On what demand would look like without those constraints: "The unconstrained would be a lot higher"

• On memory costs: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory. The magnitude of the price increase has exceeded our prior expectations and is headed even higher into next year"

• On the roughly $50bn invested in frontier AI labs: "We recognise the scale of this support, and we know some will call this circular financing. We see it differently"

• On those customers: "These are once-in-a-generation companies. The technology leadership is proven and their customer traction and usage are skyrocketing. We expect them to become the largest technology companies in history"

• On OpenAI and Anthropic building their own chips: "I have 100% confidence that our technology will continue to be extraordinary for them, and they're going to use it, so I've every confidence that they're going to be customers of ours for a very long time"

• On the state of the technology: "We could say that we've already achieved AGI"

Nvidia beats across the board and guides Q3 above consensus

[8:50 am] Nvidia's July quarter delivered a 4% revenue beat with data centre still compounding at triple-digit rates, and the Q3 guide came in ahead despite assuming nothing from China. The stock is up 4.3% after hours.

• Revenue up 106% to US$96.2bn vs US$92.2bn ests (4% beat)

• Data Center revenue up 117% to US$89.0bn vs US$85.8bn ests (4% beat)

• Edge Computing revenue up 27% to US$7.2bn vs US$6.61bn ests (9% beat)

• Adjusted gross margin of 75.0% vs 75% ests (in line), up 250bps year on year

• Adjusted operating income up 124% to US$64.0bn, with adjusted opex up 54% to US$8.2bn

• Adjusted net income up 118% to US$54.0bn and adjusted EPS up 120% to US$2.22 vs US$2.10 ests (6% beat)

• Free cash flow of US$21.3bn, with about US$26.0bn returned to shareholders in the quarter and roughly US$99.0bn left on the buyback authorisation

• Q3 revenue guidance of US$108.0bn plus or minus 2% vs US$104.2bn ests (4% beat), with adjusted gross margin guided to 74.0% plus or minus 50bps

CrowdStrike lifts FY27 outlook as net new ARR jumps 51%

[8:48 am] CrowdStrike beat on every line in the July quarter and raised full-year guidance, with the ARR reacceleration the standout after a soft patch through last year.

• Revenue up 26% to US$1.47bn vs US$1.44bn ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 35% to US$0.31 vs US$0.29 ests (7% beat)

• Net new ARR up 51% to a record US$333m, taking total ARR up 25% to US$5.84bn

• Free cash flow up 33% to US$377.4m vs US$353m ests (7% beat), with net operating cash flow of US$530.3m

• Non-GAAP operating margin of 25%, with no comparable ests provided for the metric

• FY27 revenue guidance of US$5.99–6.01bn vs US$5.93bn ests (1% beat) and adjusted EPS of US$1.25–1.26 vs US$1.23 ests (2% beat), with ARR guided to US$6.60–6.61bn

• Q3 revenue guidance of US$1.52–1.53bn vs US$1.51bn ests (1% beat), with adjusted EPS of US$0.31 sitting in line

Crowdstrike is one of the main holdings in most cybersecurity-related ETFs (e.g. a 7.9% weight in the HACK ETF). The stock is up 9.8% after hours.

Core PCE lands in line and gives the Fed room to sit still

[8:45 am] July's inflation print did nothing to force the Fed's hand, but it also did nothing to bring inflation back towards target, leaving Friday's Jackson Hole speech as the next real event risk.

• Core PCE rose 0.2% month on month and 3.3% year on year, matching expectations, while the headline gauge was up 3.7% year on year and still comfortably above the 2% goal

• Inflation-adjusted consumer spending was flat in July after strong May and June gains, with core goods outlays down 0.8% and services spending up 0.3%

• Treasury yields and the US dollar rose on the release

• The consumer looks less stretched than the spending line suggests, with real disposable income up 0.4% (the most since January) and the saving rate at a four-month high of 3%

Source: Bloomberg

Jackson Hole puts Warsh under pressure as hike bets build

[8:44 am] Two of the world's biggest central banks are edging towards tighter policy at the same time, and markets are heading into Friday's Jackson Hole speech with little guidance on how far the Fed is willing to go.

• Kevin Warsh delivers his first major speech as Fed chairman on Friday, with investors still without a clear read on how he intends to bring inflation back to 2%

• Treasury yields edged higher after a key US inflation gauge stayed well above target, sustaining expectations the Fed begins raising rates before year end

• The ECB is leaning the same way, with Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel telling Bloomberg further hikes are needed given inflation is projected to run above 2% for an extended period

Oil keeps falling on a Hormuz framework that is not yet a reopening

[8:43 am] Iran and Oman have outlined a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, and crude has sold off for a third straight session even though almost nothing has changed on the water.

• The proposed corridor would be seven miles wide, with the entry and part of the exit running through Iranian territorial waters, and would close the UN-authorised southern route hugging Oman's coast that ships have been using under US naval protection

• Traffic data undercuts the optimism, with just five commodity vessels transiting the strait on Tuesday against a 10-day average of 15, versus roughly a fifth of global crude that moved through before the war

• The Revolutionary Guard says the strait stays shut until Washington accepts Tehran's conditions under the collapsed June MoU, including sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets

• Demining is the harder constraint, with experts noting Iran's mine capability is built for laying rather than clearing, and that reopening declarations alone will not restore shipping and insurance confidence

• The new US sanctions campaign covers 60-plus entities across digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, but Treasury has held off on secondary sanctions against Chinese banks, with Beijing, which buys around 90% of Iran's crude, warning it will act to protect its interests

Good morning!

[8:25 am] ASX 200 futures are down 4 pts (-0.04%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks finished slightly lower, in a relatively narrow and rangebound session

  • S&P 500 (-0.02%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.15%), Nasdaq (-0.08%), Dow (-0.21%), Russell 2000 (-0.14%)

• Nvidia beat on every line and guided well above expectations, Q2 revenue up 106% year-on-year to US$96.2bn (x16 what it made four years ago) and guided to Q3 revenue of ~US$108bn, shares up approximately 4% after hours

• A December Fed hike is now fully priced after US core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year in July, in-line with estimates but above the Fed's 2% target for a 65th consecutive month