ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 16th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, July 16. We've had to wrap up early today due to unforeseen circumstances, but the blog will run as usual tomorrow. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Junior resources roundup: Gold hits and critical minerals updates

[9:04 am] Junior resources names delivered a run of drilling results and resource upgrades spanning gold, rare earths and lithium.

• Anson Resources: Applied for additional blocks abutting its Green River lithium brine project covering 3,958 acres, and expects to reach its JORC Resource target without further exploration drilling if granted.

• Rox Resources: Maiden assays at United North returned 4.60m @ 9.60g/t Au from 131.58m (incl 3.00m @ 13.62g/t), while Commonwealth results flagged a potential new ore source near existing Youanmi processing, headlined by 7.00m @ 9.68g/t Au.

• Meteoric Resources: Lifted the Caldeira ore reserve to 146Mt at 3,546ppm TREO and 863ppm MREO, containing 517,000t TREO and supporting more than 20 years at a 6Mtpa production rate.

• Ausgold: Further Central Zone assays at Katanning included 16m @ 1.32g/t Au from 252m and a shallower 3m @ 5.67g/t Au from 255m.

BHP delivers record iron ore and second straight year near 2Mt copper

[9:01 am] Full-year output landed within or above guidance across all major commodities, though FY27 copper guidance points to lower volumes ahead.

• Q4 iron ore production of 68.1Mt vs 68.3Mt ests (in line), with WAIO at 74.8Mt vs 75.1Mt ests

• Q4 copper production of 491.9kt vs 490.6kt ests

• FY26 iron ore production of 264.7Mt, within the 258-269Mt guidance range and a record

• FY26 copper production of 1,952.8kt, near the top of the 1,900-2,000kt range, marking a second consecutive year around 2Mt

• FY26 unit costs expected at the bottom of guidance for all copper assets, with realised copper prices around 35% higher than a year ago

• Guided FY27 copper production of 1,650-1,800kt, the midpoint is down 12% on FY26, with iron ore steady at 260-272Mt

Company page: BHP Group (BHP)

Fleetwood to acquire Karratha's Red Dog Village

[9:00 am] The workforce accommodation deal could lift Community Solutions earnings materially once operations begin in early 2027.

• Acquiring Red Dog Village in Karratha for total consideration of $20m plus GST, funded by a term debt facility

• The deal could add $10-20m to Community Solutions EBIT on an annualised basis

• Searipple occupancy is forecast at 75-85% in FY27, with 71% already contracted

• Completion is expected December 2026, with Fleetwood to commence operations from January 2027

Company page: Fleetwood (FWD)

Australian Ethical hits record $14.5bn FUM on strong year-end flows

[8:58 am] Fourth-quarter superannuation inflows and a strategic CEFC contribution drove funds under management to a new high.

• FUM of $14.50bn at 30 June, up 6.9% from $13.57bn at 31 March

• Superannuation net flows of $196m, supported by end-of-financial-year contributions, rollovers and rising SG contributions

• Retail and wholesale investment net flows of negative $26m, as the CEFC's $125m investment into the new Growth Opportunities Fund cushioned higher redemptions during market volatility

• Market and other movements added $650m over the quarter

• FY26 organic net flows of $491m retail and wholesale plus $173m institutional, partially offset by the previously disclosed Australian Unity Bank mandate outflow

Company page: Australian Ethical Investment (AEF)

Ora Banda hits record quarterly gold output but costs run hot

[8:56 am] Fourth-quarter production topped estimates and delivered full-year guidance, though all-in sustaining costs came in well above expectations.

• Q4 gold production of 39.6koz vs 39.0koz ests (2% beat), a record quarter

• Q4 AISC of $3,870/oz vs $3,548 ests, running 9% above expectations

• FY26 gold produced of 141koz, within the 140-155koz guidance range but a 4% miss at the midpoint

• FY26 AISC of $3,496/oz, with closing cash of $267.7m and total liquidity of $468m

• Guided FY27 production of 125-140koz at AISC of $3,400-3,600/oz, with the midpoint ~5% below Macquarie's 139koz estimate and costs ~15% above the broker's $3,049 assumption

• Launched its 'DRIVE to 300' strategy, with construction underway on a new 3Mtpa processing plant and FY27 growth capex of $425m

Company page: Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

EQT lifts indicative bid for Perpetual to $22.07 a share

[8:52 am] The revised approach still sits well below the $25 a share directors reportedly see as a floor for any change of control.

• EQT-backed Windflower lifted its non-binding indicative proposal to $22.07 a share, a 2% increase on the original $21.64

• The proposal is conditional on completion of the sale of Perpetual's Wealth Management business to Bain Capital, among numerous other conditions

• EQT has said the proposal will be treated as automatically withdrawn if disclosed

• The Australian reports Perpetual directors see $25 a share as the minimum for any change of control transaction, above the revised offer

This announcement was released at 7:21 pm on Wednesday.

Company page: Perpetual (PPT)

Warsh plays down AI as a driver of persistent inflation

[8:50 am] The Fed chair told senators that AI-driven price rises may prove temporary, signalling more patience on inflation than his recent hawkish tone suggested.

• Warsh said AI investment is raising some goods prices but a one-time price change is not necessarily inflationary, given a likely supply response

• He distinguished AI demand from a foreign conflict, which tends to reduce the supply side of the economy

• Expects AI to lift productivity and wages over time, repeating a view held before his January nomination

• Comments diverge from Governors Waller and Cook and New York Fed President Williams, who have recently flagged AI's inflationary impact

• Warsh declined to say whether he had spoken with Trump since taking office in May, but vowed to defend the Fed's independence

Source: Bloomberg

Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% for sixth straight meeting

[8:49 am] The central bank kept rates on hold as expected, flagging improving growth and easing inflation despite trimming its 2026 outlook.

• Held rates at 2.25%, the sixth consecutive hold after last year's easing cycle

• Cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.7% from 1.2% in April, while nudging up 2027 and 2028 projections, and sees Q2 annualised growth of 2.5% after a stalled first quarter

• Lifted its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.3%, but expects inflation to hold near the midpoint of its 1%-3% target over the next two years

• Flagged US trade relations and the Middle East war as the two biggest risks, with Macklem warning it will not let elevated oil prices become persistent inflation

• Markets are pricing a hold for the rest of the year

US-Iran conflict escalates as blockade resumes and Hormuz traffic collapses

[8:48 am] Renewed strikes and a reinstated US naval blockade have choked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, rattling Gulf economies and global crude flows.

• The US launched a fifth straight day of strikes on Iran, with two fresh waves Wednesday targeting military capabilities used to threaten vessels in the Strait of Hormuz

• The US reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports and disabled a Curacao-flagged empty tanker bound for Kharg Island, the first vessel disabled since the blockade resumed

• Iran launched its heaviest strikes on Kuwait in weeks, involving five cruise and one ballistic missile plus 33 drones, injuring four navy personnel, with Kuwait's economy now seen contracting around 7.9% in 2026

• Hormuz traffic remains depressed at roughly 13 ships over 24 hours versus a pre-war daily average near 110, with some vessels turning off transponders to avoid attack

• Trump backed down on a planned 20% cargo charge through the strait after pushback from Gulf allies, while Iran's Foreign Ministry said it has no plans for negotiations

• Chinese refinery runs fell 18% year-on-year in June to 51.24m tons, the weakest in six years, as Gulf shipping disrueveryone hit crude imports, with total 2026 throughput seen down 5.6%

Evercore ISI pushes back on AI infrastructure selloff

[8:46 am] The broker argues the market is misreading reports that CoreWeave is exploring memory price hedges as a signal that chip prices have peaked.

• Infrastructure OEM and memory supplier names traded lower after reports CoreWeave is exploring derivatives to hedge against a potential decline in memory and storage prices

• Evercore says its checks and OEM commentary point to DRAM and NAND constraints worsening exiting CY26 and persisting through most of CY27

• CoreWeave has signed memory deals with floor and ceiling pricing terms and is exploring put options, though Reuters notes no hedges have been executed yet

• A pricing downturn could distort year-on-year comparisons if Dell gives back pricing in memory-intensive AI and traditional servers where higher costs have been passed through

• Lower component pricing could prove demand-elastic, unlocking delayed server deployments and supporting stronger unit demand

• Evercore keeps its thesis unchanged, citing constrained DRAM, NAND and HBM supply through CY27 with AI demand still absorbing capacity

BlackRock beats as AUM hits $15.3 trillion on record inflows

[8:45 am] Record first-half inflows and a surge in performance fees drove a double-digit earnings beat, with iShares crossing $6 trillion. Shares rallied 6.6% but flattish year-to-date.

• Revenue up 31% to $7.08bn vs $6.72bn ests (5% beat)

• Adj. EPS of $13.91 vs $12.57 ests (11% beat), up 15% year-on-year

• AUM up 22% to $15.34tn, with total net inflows of $191.7bn including $177.9bn into ETFs

• Base fees and securities lending revenue up 29% to $5.73bn, with performance fees up 224% to $305m

• Adjusted operating margin of 45.9%, up 260 basis points year-on-year, on adjusted operating income up 39% to $2.92bn

• Lifted planned FY26 buybacks to $2bn and raised the planned quarterly repurchase to $550m

Morgan Stanley posts record revenue as trading and dealmaking surge

[8:44 am] A record quarter across equities and wealth management drove earnings well ahead of expectations, prompting a fresh $20 billion buyback authorisation. The stock finished 0.3% higher at all-time highs, now up 29.4% year-to-date.

• Net revenue up 27% to $21.35bn vs $19.58bn ests (9% beat)

• EPS of $3.46 vs $2.93 ests (18% beat), up 62% year-on-year

• Equities sales and trading up 69% to $6.30bn vs $4.47bn ests (41% beat)

• Investment banking up 58% to $2.44bn vs $2.20bn ests (11% beat)

• Wealth management revenue up 14% to $8.86bn vs $8.68bn ests (2% beat), with record net new assets of $148.1bn

• Announced new buyback authorisation of up to $20bn and lifted the quarterly dividend by $0.15 to $1.15

ASML raises full-year outlook as Q2 sales and margins beat

[8:43 am] The lithography maker lifted guidance sharply after securing nearly all EUV orders needed for 2027, with the new forecast incorporating demand from Elon Musk's Terafab project.

• Net sales of €9.33bn vs €8.85bn ests (5% beat), up 6.4% quarter-on-quarter

• EPS of €7.59 vs €6.90 ests (10% beat)

• Gross margin of 54.0% vs 52% ests, with operating margin of 37.1% vs 34.7% ests

• Net income of €2.92bn vs €2.64bn ests (11% beat), up 5.8% quarter-on-quarter

• Raised FY26 sales guidance to €43bn-€45bn from €38bn prior, midpoint of €44bn well above the €39.3bn ests (12% above), with gross margin lifted to 54%-56% from 51%-53%

ASML shares briefly dipped 2.2% in early trade, finished the session up 2.2%.

United Airlines lifts full-year guidance as Q2 revenue climbs 16%

[8:42 am] Strong top-line growth and an EPS beat came despite a near-80% jump in fuel costs that halved earnings year-on-year. The result was announced after market close, with the stock currently down 2.3% after hours.

• Revenue up 16% to $17.7bn vs $17.60bn ests (1% beat)

• Adj. EPS of $1.99 vs $1.84 ests (8% beat), down 49% year-on-year

• Passenger revenue up 16.4% to $16.1bn vs $16.12bn ests (in line)

• Average fuel price up 79.4% to $4.19/gallon

• Raised FY26 adj. EPS guidance to $9.00-$11.00, midpoint of $10.00 below the $10.36 ests (3% below)

US June producer prices come in soft while July factory activity strengthens

[8:41 am] Cooling pipeline inflation alongside a rebound in New York manufacturing points to easing price pressures without a growth stall.

• June core PPI rose 0.2% m/m, below the 0.4% consensus, with the annual rate slowing to 4.7% from an expected 5.2%

• Headline PPI fell 0.3% m/m against flat consensus, the coolest monthly reading since May 2024, taking the annual rate to 5.5% versus 6.4% expected

• Final demand goods prices dropped 1.4%, the largest monthly fall since July 2022, driven by a 6.4% slide in energy prices

Wall Street rises as cooling inflation lifts Big Tech, chips slide

[8:40 am] A second soft inflation print in a week powered a rotation out of semiconductors and into megacap tech and rate-sensitive cyclicals.

• S&P 500 rose 0.38% to 7,572.40, the Nasdaq gained 0.62% to 26,269.23 and the Dow added 0.29% to 52,658.64

• Apple gained 4% to a record high, with Amazon and Alphabet up around 3% and Microsoft up nearly 3%, while Micron fell 8%, Intel dropped more than 4% and AMD fell 3%

• The rotation looks mechanical, with long global semis flagged as the most crowded trade in July's BofA fund manager survey and no clear catalyst behind the weakness

• June headline PPI fell 0.3% month-on-month against a flat consensus, the second cooler print this week after Tuesday's soft CPI, prompting firms to trim June core PCE estimates toward a 3.3% annual rate

• New York Fed President Williams said there are encouraging signs inflation has peaked and should edge lower, though markets still price a near 60% chance of higher rates by the October meeting

Good morning!

[8:34 am] ASX 200 futures are up 15 pts (+0.17%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks up for a second straight session, led by a rotation back into Mag-7 names like Apple (+4.0%), Alphabet (+3.6%) and Meta (+3.0%)

• US June producer prices was cooler-than-expected, slightly easing Fed rate hike expectations and sending bond yields lower for a second straight session

• PayPal jumped 17% on a takeover approach from Stripe and Advent worth more than US$53bn, while ASML lifted the AI-chip mood with a raised full-year outlook