ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 13th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, August 13. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

Transurban lifts the FY26 payout in line with expectations

[9:00 am] Earnings and the distribution landed close to where brokers had them, but the initial FY27 payout guidance sits under consensus and the group flagged a transitional year on M5 West

• FY26 distribution up 6.2% to 69 cps, in line with guidance and matching both Morgans and Macquarie at 69 cps

• Proportional operating EBITDA up 7.5% to $3.06bn, with total proportional EBITDA of $3.11bn versus Morgans $3.07bn and Macquarie $3.15bn (in-line)

• Proportional toll revenue up 6.7% to $3.98bn with the EBITDA margin lifting to 75.7% from 74.9%

• Average daily traffic up 2.2% to 2.6m trips, with commercial traffic up 6.6% but West Gate Tunnel volumes flat since February

• FY27 distribution guidance of 72 cps vs. 72.4 cps ests, with free cash coverage guided slightly below the 95-105% target range

Company page: Transurban Group (TCL)

IAG grows the dividend even as a perils swing drags reported profit

[8:59 am] Headline profit fell against a prior year flattered by reserve releases and benign weather, but underlying insurance earnings and premiums both grew and the payout was lifted

• NPAT down 25% to $1.02bn, though FY25's $1.36bn was inflated by a $330m pre-tax BI reserve release and $195m of favourable peril experience

• Underlying insurance profit up 2% to $1.58bn at a 15.0% underlying margin, down 50bps, or 16.0% excluding the first-year transitional drag from RACQI

• Reported GWP up 7.6% to $18.4bn, with Australian Retail up 17.8% to $10.3bn including $1.27bn from the acquired RACQI business and underlying growth of about 4.5%

• Full-year dividend up 3% to 32 cps with the final lifted to 20 cps, and capital remaining above target ranges

Company page: Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

Telstra tops off a solid FY26 with a fresh $1bn buyback

[8:51 am] Underlying earnings landed mid-guidance and the dividend grew, but the standout was another round of capital management that ran ahead of where some brokers had pencilled it

• Underlying EBITDAaL up 4% to $8.3bn, at the midpoint of the $8.2-8.4bn guidance range and in line with Morgans' ~$8.3bn EBITDAaL forecast

• Total dividend up 10.5% to 21 cents vs. 20.9 ests (in-line)

• Reported NPAT up 2.7% to $2.4bn, cash EPS up 14% to 25.5c and underlying ROIC up 0.5pp to 9%

• New on-market buyback of up to $1bn announced on top of the $1.25bn completed in June, running ahead of Bell Potter's ests for ~$750m in FY27

• FY27 underlying EBITDAaL guidance of $8.5-8.8bn (midpoint ~4% growth) alongside cash EBIT of $4.75-4.95bn, both broadly in-line with consensus

• Aura Network now over halfway built at a mid-teens IRR and ~9-year payback, though total strategic spend to FY28 lifts to ~$1.8bn from ~$1.6bn on inflation

Company page: Telstra Group (TLS)

Monadelphous wins more than $110m in resources, energy and infrastructure contracts

[8:50 am] Monadelphous has secured a suite of new construction and maintenance contracts across three clients spanning Papua New Guinea and Western Australia.

• Awarded a Santos contract on the APF Tie-In Project in PNG's Southern Highlands, covering well pad and gathering system construction plus brownfield facility upgrades, with completion expected in 2028

• Civil arm Melchor secured a contract with Pilbara Ports on the Utah Ring Road Reconstruction Project at Port Hedland, starting immediately and due for completion in the first half of 2028

• Won a 12-month services contract at Glencore's Murrin Murrin operations in the WA Goldfields

Company page: Monadelphous Group (MND)

Cleanaway grants EQT due diligence on $3.13 per share takeover proposal

[8:48 am] Cleanaway has agreed to open its books to EQT Infrastructure after receiving a lifted indicative bid valuing the waste manager at roughly $9.4 billion.

• Cash price of $3.13 per share, up from an initial unsolicited $3.00 proposal, less any dividends or distributions declared from the date of the proposal

• Offer implies a 32.1% premium to the last close of $2.37 on 12 August

• Implied enterprise value of about $9.4bn equates to roughly 20x EV/FY26 EBIT

• Board intends to recommend a binding deal at no less than $3.13 per share, absent a superior proposal and subject to an independent expert view, and has granted EQT up to nine weeks exclusive due diligence to negotiate a scheme implementation deed

• Potential for a fully franked special dividend that could deliver additional franking credit value to shareholders depending on their tax position

• Deal remains conditional on due diligence, unanimous board recommendation, FIRB and ACCC approvals, with no certainty a binding proposal eventuates

Company page: Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

Elliott nominates six board candidates for Northern Star, escalating its campaign

[8:43 am] The activist has put forward a slate of directors to oversee a strategic and operational review, a week out from the gold miner's full-year results.

• Elliott nominated six candidates including Mark Cutifani, former Anglo American CEO, and Graham Shuttleworth, former Barrick Gold CFO

• Other nominees are Susan Corlett, Paul Graves, Mick McMullen and Peter Rozenauers

• The activist wants the slate to run an "objective, thorough strategic and operational review"

• Elliott has built a 5.6% stake since launching its campaign in June, when it called for a potential sale and a new CEO

• Glencore's Suresh Vadnagra was appointed CEO in July, replacing Stuart Tonkin from Oct 5

• Northern Star has repeatedly cut production guidance amid issues at its Kalgoorlie processing plant, with full-year results due Aug 20

Source: Bloomberg

Rio Tinto's Tomago aluminium smelter secures $2.5bn government bailout

[8:40 am] Australia's biggest aluminium smelter has won combined federal and state support to stay open as high energy costs threaten its viability.

• Tomago smelter in NSW secured a A$2.5bn ($1.8bn) government bailout, with the venture to invest A$1.1bn in the plant

• Support will make the smelter more flexible so it can cut power use during periods of high grid demand

• Electricity accounts for more than 40% of Tomago's operating costs, with closure flagged when its power-supply contract expires later this decade

• Rio owns slightly more than half of Tomago, with Gove Aluminium Finance and Norsk Hydro holding the remaining stakes

Source: Bloomberg

US pivots to economic pressure on Iran as Hormuz stays shut and oil supply tightens

[8:09 am] Washington is leaning on sanctions and a naval blockade rather than fresh strikes, but the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed with no near-term resolution in sight.

• Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, with Iran refusing to reopen until sanctions are lifted, frozen assets released and a region-wide ceasefire agreed

• Vessel traffic through Hormuz fell to eight ships on Tuesday, well below the 10-day average of about 12 and the pre-war run rate of roughly 130 a day

• Trump has shifted to a "Maximum Pressure" economic playbook, with some 2,200 sanctions on Tehran since 2018 and around 350 under the current push

• Escalation risk centres on China, which buys over 90% of Iran's oil exports, with any move against major Chinese banks risking a fresh front ahead of a planned September Trump-Xi meeting

• Conflict spreading beyond Hormuz, with Houthi attacks in the Bab al-Mandeb strait and continued US strikes on vessels signalling the war is not winding down

Yardeni lifts S&P 500 target to Street-high 8,400 on 'fabulous earnings momentum'

[8:08 am] Ed Yardeni raised his year-end forecast after a reporting season he says broadly crushed analyst forecasts, keeping his 2029 target at 10,000.

• Year-end S&P 500 target lifted to 8,400 from 8,250, the most bullish call on Wall Street, with the index currently at 7,748.50

• 2026 earnings forecast raised to $375 from $330 per share

• Q2 EPS growth expected at 31% with more than 90% of firms reported, per Bloomberg Intelligence

• Yardeni coined "FEMO", or fabulous earnings momentum, and cited the fastest rise in consensus earnings expectations he has seen

Source: Bloomberg

S&P 500 earnings are so strong that investors are worried about what comes next

[8:07 am] Q2 profit growth topped 30% in one of the best reporting seasons in memory, but strategists warn a decelerating pace from here has historically marked a weaker phase for equities.

• Q2 profit growth running above 30%, with 85.2% of companies beating EPS estimates, the highest since 2021, and only 10.8% missing, the lowest in three decades

• Consensus sees growth falling below 20% in Q1 2027 before moderating into the mid-teens for the full year

• When EPS growth is above trend but decelerating, the S&P 500's median 12-month return is 6.7% vs. 14% when growth is above trend and accelerating, per BofA

• Four straight quarters of 20%+ growth would be rare, occurring only 10 times since 1936 and usually after EPS recessions like Covid and the GFC

• Market reactions are muted, with beats on revenue, earnings or both seeing flat one-day excess returns while misses trigger steeper selloffs

Source: Bloomberg

US 10-year auction clears at highest yield since 2007

[8:06 am] A $42 billion sale of 10-year Treasuries drew solid demand even as investors keep pricing a Fed hike by year-end, setting up a 30-year sale expected at the highest rate in 25 years.

• 10-year auction cleared at 4.683%, the highest since the global financial crisis, just above the pre-deadline market level in a sign demand only slightly lagged expectations

• Above-target inflation, solid growth, the war and swelling budget deficits continue to weigh on long-dated yields

• In-line July CPI trimmed September hike bets to around 40% from about 50% before the data, though markets still fully price a hike by year-end

• Two-year yield down less than 2 bps at 4.2%, with most Treasuries ending the day little changed

Source: Bloomberg

Norway's oil fund posts record return but CEO turns cautious on AI and geopolitics

[8:04 am] The world's largest sovereign wealth fund delivered an all-time high first-half return, though CEO Nicolai Tangen warned the run cannot last and flagged mounting risks.

• First-half return of 1.4 trillion kroner ($150bn), an all-time high, driven by gains in global tech holdings

• Tangen called it "as good as it gets" and warned "the fund has doubled the last four years. This will not last"

• Top 10 holdings now account for nearly 25% of the fund's value, with Tangen saying "we've never seen a concentration risk like that"

• Flagged circular financing inflating an AI bubble as raising systemic risk "if anything goes wrong"

• The $2.3 trillion fund now owns about 1.5% of the world's total listed companies

Source: Bloomberg

AI demand powers a wave of US earnings beats and guidance raises

[8:01 am] A strong batch of US reporters led by Cisco, Nebius and CoreWeave leaned on AI infrastructure momentum, though Supermicro and Amcor showed margin and profit soft spots beneath the top-line strength.

Cisco (down ~4.3% after hours)

• Revenue up 18% to $17.3bn vs. $16.82bn ests (3% beat)

• Non-GAAP EPS up 23% to $1.22 vs. $1.17 ests (4% beat)

• Adj operating income of $6.2bn vs. $5.85bn ests (6% beat), adj operating margin 35.9%

• AI infrastructure orders of $4bn in Q4 and $9.3bn across FY26, total product orders up 35% YoY

• Raises FY27 revenue guide to $72.2-73.4bn vs. $68.69bn ests (6% beat at midpoint) and adj EPS to $5.05-5.11 vs. $4.80 ests (6% beat at midpoint)

• "In FY26, Cisco achieved its highest productivity metrics in 30 years measured by revenue, non-GAAP operating margin, and earnings per employee"

Nebius (+34.1%)

• Revenue up 454% to $582.3m vs. $573m ests (2% beat)

• Adj EBITDA of $236.2m vs. $175m ests (35% beat), swinging from a $21m loss a year ago

• Diluted EPS of -$0.68 vs. -$0.62 ests (10% miss)

• AI cloud revenue up 514% to $575m, contracted capacity lifted to 5 GW from over 4 GW

• "We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today. We are deliberately not doing so because we see higher value in retaining some capacity for immediate customer needs"

Amcor (flat after hours)

• Revenue up 26% to $6.4bn vs. $6.05bn ests (6% beat)

• Adj EPS up 23% to $1.23 vs. $1.19 ests (3% beat)

• EBITDA up 32% to $1.05bn vs. $1.02bn ests (3% beat)

• Operating income of $646m vs. $762m ests (15% miss)

• Net income of $389m vs. $554m ests (30% miss)

• "Synergy realisation came in ahead of plan, while performance in our non-core businesses improved substantially"

CoreWeave (+19.2%)

• Raises FY26 revenue guide to $12.4-13.2bn vs. $12.63bn ests (1% beat at midpoint)

• FY26 adj operating income guide of $960m-1.15bn vs. $893m ests (18% beat at midpoint)

• Q3 revenue guide of $3.45-3.60bn vs. $3.43bn ests (3% beat at midpoint)

• Backlog up 46% to $104bn, with July pricing up around 25% across SKUs

Supermicro (+19.0%)

• Revenue of $11.1bn vs. $11.55bn ests (4% miss)

• Adj EPS up 315% to $1.70 vs. $0.96 ests (77% beat)

• Net income of $1.2bn vs. $636m ests (89% beat), gross margin up 800 bps to 17.5%

• Raises FY27 revenue guide to $65-72bn vs. $52.5bn ests (31% beat at midpoint)

• Q1 revenue guide of $14.5-15.5bn vs. $11.68bn ests (28% beat at midpoint)

• "Generated more than $60 billion in new orders, and booked record backlog entering fiscal 2027"

US inflation stays subdued in July, easing pressure for a September Fed hike

[7:55 am] Both headline and core CPI landed in line with ests, softening the case for a rate rise even as inflation holds above the Fed's target.

• Headline CPI up 3.4% y/y and 0.1% m/m, both in line with ests

• Core CPI up 2.5% y/y and 0.2% m/m, in line and matching the slowest pace since March 2021

• Shelter up 0.1% accounted for two-thirds of the overall increase, while energy and grocery prices both fell

• AI boom clear in the data, with computer software and accessories up a record 21.2% y/y and IT commodities up 3.5% on the month

• Wage growth of 3.2% y/y is lagging headline inflation, removing the fuel needed for a self-sustaining price-wage spiral

• Markets pared September hike bets to around 45%, sending Treasury yields lower and stock futures higher

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[7:49 am] We're kicking things off a little earlier-than-usual today!

ASX 200 futures are down 24 pts (-0.26%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher but off best levels after July CPI landed in line at 3.4% year-on-year

  • S&P 500 (+0.26%), Dow (-0.04%), Nasdaq (+0.54%) and Russell 2000 (+0.61%)

• Eight out of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher, laggards include Discretionary (-1.4%), Materials (-1.1%) and Communication Services (-0.9%)

• AI infrastructure names drove the index with Super Micro and CoreWeave surging, while Cisco guided FY27 revenue nearly $10bn above ests and still sold off after hours

• Traders still price roughly a 40% chance the Fed hikes in September, as Hormuz closure continues to drive up energy costs and the US 10-year lingers around the ~4.7% level