ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 27th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, July 27. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Dexus tops $2bn divestment target with $715m office sale

[9:58 am] Dexus has exchanged contracts to sell three wholly owned office properties for $715m, completing its circa $2bn divestment program ahead of its FY27 target.

• Three offices sold for a combined $715m, in line with independent valuations at 30 June 2026 and a circa 4% discount to book values at 31 December 2025

• Circa 67% of proceeds received at settlement, with the remaining 33% deferred for 30 months on a 6.25% per annum coupon

• Settlement expected October 2026, subject to conditions precedent including FIRB approval

• Sale would cut pro forma look-through gearing by circa 2 percentage points

• Assets comprise 30-34 and 36 Hickson Road in Sydney plus 123 Albert Street in Brisbane, the latter a Premium grade building with 96% occupancy and a 5.5-year WALE

Company page: Dexus (DXS)

EOS lifts FY26 guidance as order book hits record on counter-drone demand

[9:56 am] Electro Optic Systems flagged a 284% jump in first-half revenue and upgraded base-business guidance, with its order book at a record on strong counter-drone demand.

• 1H26 revenue of about $169m, up 284% or $125m from 1H 2025, the highest first-half revenue in EOS history

• FY26 base-business guidance lifted to $280m to $300m, up from $240m to $270m announced on 15 June, which would be a record annual revenue if secured

• Order book of $846m at 30 June, up 84% or $387m from 31 December 2025 and the highest in EOS history, including the MARSS order book

• Underlying EBITDA expected to be positive for the first half

• Available cash of $256m at 30 June, or $286m of available funding including unused debt facilities

• MARSS secured about $188m of new orders during the quarter, including a $160m country-wide drone detection contract with a Middle Eastern military customer, with BAE Systems selecting its NiDAR C2 system

Company page: Electro Optic Systems (EOS)

Santos ships first Barossa condensate cargo as Darwin LNG ramps to 97%

[9:47 am] Santos has loaded and sold the first condensate cargo from its Barossa gas project, a milestone as the linked Darwin LNG plant nears full production.

• First condensate cargo of about 300,000 barrels loaded from the BW Opal FPSO on 24 July, bound for SK Incheon Petrochem in South Korea to produce naphtha and jet fuel

• Darwin LNG plant now at 97% of planned rates, with LNG cargoes loading roughly every eight days and condensate now flowing to market

• Santos operates Barossa with a 50% interest, alongside PRISM Energy International Australia on 37.5% and JERA Australia on 12.5%

• Cargo jointly marketed and sold by Santos and PRISM, located about 285km north of Darwin

Company page: Santos (STO)

Talga signs LOI with Japan's Hanwa for Vittangi anode offtake and investment

[9:36 am] Talga has entered a non-binding letter of intent with Japanese trading house Hanwa covering graphite anode offtake and a potential project-level investment in its Vittangi Anode Project in Sweden.

• LOI targets two definitive agreements, a binding long-term offtake for Talnode graphite anode products on preferential terms and a binding investment agreement for a project-level stake by Hanwa and/or other Japanese investors

• Indicative timetable targets Q3 2026 for due diligence and a term sheet, with execution of definitive agreements in Q4 2026 and FID targeted for early 2027

• Hanwa generated 2026 sales of US$17.2bn, with an increasing focus on critical minerals and an existing battery materials procurement agreement with Honda

• VAP backed by existing conditional non-dilutive financing, including a €150m European Investment Bank debt facility and a €70m EU Innovation Fund grant

• No immediate material financial impact from the LOI, which is non-binding aside from confidentiality and customary provisions

Company page: Talga Group (TLG)

Gold drilling dominates as explorers report high-grade hits

[9:34 am] Here's a wrap of the latest exploration and drilling results across the small-to-mid cap space.

• Emerald Resources returned 18m @ 16.67g/t Au from 535m (including 5m @ 53.56g/t) at its Okvau Gold Mine in Cambodia, with near-mine and Dingo Range results including 7m @ 24.83g/t Au from 204m and 11m @ 18.35g/t Au from 181m at Boundary.

• Medallion Metals extended the Gem deposit at its Kundip Mining Centre, hitting 4.92m @ 16.3g/t AuEq from 394m and 3.29m @ 17.1g/t AuEq from 372m, with roughly 5,000m of assays still pending.

• Ballard Mining returned 9m @ 27.1g/t Au from 191m at the West Knell prospect on the Ballard Fault Zone, extending mineralisation north and at depth ahead of an updated resource estimate for Mt Ida late this quarter.

• Encounter Resources intersected shallow copper-gold mineralisation at its Elsa prospect on the Lamil project, including 18m @ 0.45% Cu from 96m and 6m @ 1.74g/t Au from 94m, defining a priority zone for deeper follow-up drilling.

• Anson Resources applied to acquire mineral rights over 1,175 acres of lithium-rich brines from Utah's FFSL, lifting its project area 5.4% and joining its east and west claim blocks, with the ground under consideration for a future resource update.

Company pages: Emerald Resources (EMR), Medallion Metals (MM8), Ballard Mining (BM1), Encounter Resources (ENR), Anson Resources (ASN)

Lynas deepens LS Eco Energy tie-up with cross-subscription of convertibles

[9:20 am] Lynas has entered binding agreements with LS Cable & System subsidiary LS Eco Energy for the cross-subscription of convertible instruments worth about $29 million each, advancing plans for rare earth metal making outside China.

• Convertible instruments worth about $29m each, carrying a 0% interest rate, a five-year maturity and conversion into ordinary shares at the holder's election from three years after issue

• Conversion price referable to current trading prices, with completion subject to customary conditions precedent

• Follows the March 2026 Framework Agreement, with the parties still working towards a definitive long-term metal processing deal covering Lynas products at a facility to be built in Vietnam

• LS Eco Energy to construct a new metal making facility at its existing Vietnam operation, with metallisation circuits staged to customer needs and complementing Lynas' existing tolling arrangements

Company page: Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

Capricorn Metals sets 500,000oz gold aspiration within five years

[9:16 am] Capricorn has unveiled Range 500, a five-year aspiration to lift annual gold production to 500,000 ounces, underpinned by growth at Karlawinda and Mt Gibson plus a study into a second processing hub.

• Targets a run rate above 400kozpa within 2.5 years of Mt Gibson operations starting, with the KGP expansion to 150,000oz pa nearing completion and the updated PFS showing MGGP steady-state production of 260,000oz pa

• MGGP mine life of 19 years and growing, delivering 3.5Moz of production from the current project

• Studies into MGGP Stage 2 commenced, assessing a second processing hub at Golden Range, with preliminary results expected in Q2 FY27

• 2025 Warriedar acquisition added 1.38Moz gold MRE at Golden Range, 65km to 100km north of MGGP, opening options to truck higher-grade material north rather than lower-grade material south

• Resource definition and extension drilling to continue at Golden Range open pit and MGGP underground targets, culminating in a PFS and FID in CY27

Capricorn has flagged Range 500 as an aspirational goal only, noting it does not yet have reasonable grounds to believe the target can be achieved. I have some dated analysts forecasts, with Macquarie (Apr-26) expecting 299koz by FY29, so very ambitious growth targets.

Company page: Capricorn Metals (CMM)

Stanmore Resources' coal production rebounds from wet weather

[9:11 am] Stanmore's second-quarter production recovered strongly from first-quarter rain disruptions, with saleable volumes tracking within guidance and a debt refinancing securing lower funding costs.

• ROM coal mined of 5.1Mt vs 4.74Mt ests (8% beat), up 27% quarter-on-quarter following proactive mine sequencing after first-quarter wet weather

• Saleable production of 3.3Mt vs 3.15Mt ests (5% beat), up 3% quarter-on-quarter, with year-to-date volumes of 6.5Mt tracking within reaffirmed full-year guidance

• Total coal sales of 3.4Mt vs 3.16Mt ests (8% beat)

• Closing ROM stockpiles of 1.2Mt, up 67% quarter-on-quarter, de-risking the second-half saleable production plan

• Total cash of $138m at 30 June, for net debt of $72m and total liquidity of $408m

• Post quarter-end refinancing upsized the term loan to $250m, cut funding costs by 1.00%, moved to a bullet repayment structure and removed $70m a year of scheduled amortisation

Company page: Stanmore Resources (SMR)

Stanmore flags supply-driven strength in met coal

[9:10 am] Stanmore said premium hard coking coal held firm on Australian supply outages and a Chinese mine accident, with its PCI-weighted mix well placed to capture relative price strength.

• On premium hard coking coal: prices traded between US$230-245 a tonne, well supported as market participants grappled with supply constraints from Australian producers, including outages at several prime hard coking coal mines

• On China supply: a major coal mine accident in Shanxi in late May tightened domestic metallurgical coal availability, driving mine closures and safety inspections that diverted additional seaborne volumes to China and brought domestic and seaborne pricing into closer alignment

• On steel demand: conditions remained competitive with Chinese steel exports elevated, while European blast furnace restarts and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism supported demand expectations, and Indian infrastructure investment stayed historically high

• On PCI: steelmaker focus on cost performance supported strong demand for Stanmore's products, with Australian PCI pricing strengthening relative to premium hard coking coal, aided by higher pricing for Russian-origin material in markets able to accept it

Source: Stanmore Resources, S&P Global Commodity Insights

Myer flags material downturn in consumer sentiment

[9:08 am] Executive Chair Olivia Wirth pointed to a sharp deterioration in discretionary spending late in FY26, a read-through for consumer-facing retailers heading into reporting season.

• On the macro backdrop: "The second half of FY26 has been characterised by a volatile and significantly more challenging macroeconomic and retail environment than 1H26 or FY25"

• On consumer sentiment: "Whilst performance in the first four months of 2H26 was mixed, including a stronger May, we observed a material downturn in consumer sentiment. This was particularly evident in June and July, resulting in a subdued consumer and weak discretionary spending"

Company page: Myer Holdings (MYR)

Myer sales beat consensus but cautious consumer outlook clouds FY26

[9:05 am] Myer's preliminary FY26 update showed total sales ahead of ests, though volatile trading and weak discretionary spending weighed on the second half.

Note: Numbers are noted on a pro forma basis, which includes 12 months for Myer Retail and 12 months for Myer Apparel Brands (acquired from Premier Investments in 2025)

• Total sales of $4.09bn vs $3.83bn ests (7% beat), up 0.3% on a pro forma basis, with group comparable sales up 0.7%

• Myer Retail comparable sales up 1.0% while Myer Apparel Brands pro forma comparable sales fell 0.3%

• Operating gross profit of $1.60-1.61bn, down 2.1-2.5% pro forma, reflecting higher promotional activity to stimulate demand

• OGP margin of 39.2-39.3%, down from 40.3% pro forma

• Cost of doing business broadly in line with the FY26 target of around 29% despite lower-than-expected sales

• Active loyalty members at a record 5.3m, up from 4.7m, with Myer Retail tag rate at a record 81.5%

Company page: Myer Holdings (MYR)

Evolution Mining lobs 60% premium bid for Carnaby Resources

[9:04 am] Evolution Mining will acquire Carnaby Resources via scheme of arrangement in an all-scrip deal valuing the copper-gold explorer at about $213 million.

• Carnaby shareholders to receive 0.0682 Evolution shares per Carnaby share, an implied value of $0.772 per share and roughly $213m equity value on a fully diluted basis

• 60.4% premium to Carnaby's last close of $0.48 on 24 July

• Board unanimously recommends the scheme absent a superior proposal and subject to an independent expert deeming it in shareholders' best interests

• Directors holding about 7.3% of shares intend to vote in favour, on the same qualifications

• Deal offers exposure to Evolution's gold-copper portfolio and de-risks Greater Duchess funding, with potential synergies from processing ore at Ernest Henry

Company page: Carnaby Resources (CNB)

Trump rebuilds tariff wall with new levies on 60 economies, drawing global rebukes

[8:50 am] The US has imposed 10% to 12.5% duties on its top trading partners using forced-labour grounds, giving the administration a more durable legal footing after the Supreme Court struck down its earlier tariffs.

• Duties of 10% to 12.5% now cover the top 60 trade partners and 99.4% of American imports, with 10% for economies that have adopted import bans and 12.5% for those that have not

• Australia, China, Singapore and South Korea hit with 12.5%, while Malaysia, Taiwan, Indonesia and India face 10%, with India securing the lower tier after an initially threatened 12.5%

• Levies replace a temporary 10% global tariff expiring July 24, imposed after the Supreme Court ruled Trump's emergency-powers tariffs unlawful in February, ensuring no gap between the two

• Fuel, food, fertilisers, autos, metals and drugs exempt, along with USMCA-compliant goods, with EU and Taiwan capped at 10% in line with existing trade deals

• No major partner announced countermeasures, with Australia's Albanese to raise the issue directly with Trump and Brazil, hit with 12.5% stacking on a separate 25% duty, calling them "arbitrary"

• Analysts flag excess-capacity tariffs as the bigger risk ahead, with Fitch warning a stack back toward 2025 levels would sharply lift uncertainty and the hit to growth and inflation

Samsung and SK Hynix unveil $950bn US chip supply partnerships

[8:50 am] South Korea's two memory giants have struck a combined $950bn in long-term supply deals with US tech companies, deepening ties at the centre of the AI buildout.

• SK Hynix will supply $750bn of memory chips to US companies including Nvidia through long-term agreements

• Samsung will provide $200bn of chips to Broadcom, strengthening its position with a major supplier of custom AI processors and networking gear

• SK Hynix flagged a separate initiative worth over $500bn with Nvidia and partners covering next-generation memory and large AI data centres, including a two-gigawatt SK Telecom facility from 2027

• US companies account for 80% to 90% of demand underpinning South Korea's planned semiconductor expansion, per official estimates

• Deals were unveiled during President Lee Jae Myung's San Francisco visit, alongside an AI summit with Nvidia, OpenAI, Anthropic and Broadcom executives

China's Belt and Road green energy funding hits record as Iran war lifts renewables demand

[8:49 am] Beijing channelled a record $20.1 billion into green energy deals in the first half as soaring oil prices boosted appetite for cheaper renewable power.

• Green energy financing hit a record $20.1bn in the first half of 2026, topping the full-year 2025 total, split between $11.8bn in construction and $8.3bn in investments

• Total deals rose to a record $126.3bn, up from $123.3bn a year earlier, comprising $49.8bn in investment and $76.5bn in construction

• African investment nearly tripled year-on-year to $33.5bn, underlining sustained regional appetite despite criticism over debt sustainability and opaque loan terms

• No projects were announced in Pakistan or Russia, with Russia weak since the Ukraine invasion and Pakistan tilting toward the US as China-India relations stabilise

Source: FT

Oil prices open sharply lower

[8:47 am] Commodity markets have just opened, with Brent down 7.0% to US$91.70 and WTI down 6.5% to US$84.56.

Gold is trading 0.96% higher to US$4,091/oz and copper up 0.52% to US$6.40/lb.

US pauses Iran strikes for second night as Houthi-Saudi clashes open new oil front

[8:46 am] A two-week bombing campaign has halted as talks gain space, but the conflict is spreading across the Red Sea and Caspian Sea, keeping energy markets on edge.

• US held off on strikes for a second night after 13 consecutive waves against Iran since July 11, with military operations "on a hold" as talks proceed at multiple levels

• Houthis fired missiles and drones at Aramco oil facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, with a Patriot battery intercepting two missiles at Yanbu, in retaliation for Saudi strikes on Hodeidah

• Strait of Hormuz remains largely paralysed, normally a fifth of global crude flows, while Oman-Iran talks made some progress but left traffic unchanged

• Trump held off escalation partly over depleted Patriot interceptor stockpiles, with commander Admiral Brad Cooper reportedly advising strikes had exhausted their target list

• Trump will meet Netanyahu at the White House on Wednesday, a visit that may signal no major escalation before then, though past high-level visits have preceded strikes as deception

Wall Street turns tactical as oil, tariffs and AI spend hit at once

[8:41 am] A rare pile-up of oil, inflation, rate and trade shocks this week is pushing strategists to hedge and diversify rather than chase upside.

• S&P 500 posted a second straight weekly decline after its biggest one-day drop this month, with the Magnificent Seven shedding nearly 6%

• Brent crude briefly broke above US$100 a barrel for the first time in two months as Middle East conflict spread to the Red Sea

• Big Tech sold off after Alphabet lifted its AI spending plan to $205bn, reviving doubts over whether capital outlays will pay off

• 30-year Treasury yield traded just below its highest since 2007, while credit spreads held near their tightest in years

• Barclays turned neutral on risk assets, Goldman stayed neutral over three months, and HSBC rotated from semiconductors into European banks and the equal-weighted S&P 500

• BofA's Raedler sees equities falling 7% to 8%, arguing markets are priced for everything going right ahead of Fed, BoE and BoJ meetings plus Microsoft, Meta and Amazon earnings next week

Source: Bloomberg

Moody's warns hyperscaler AI spend threatens credit quality

[8:40 am] Moody's flagged that the trillion-dollar AI buildout is eroding free cash flow and lifting balance-sheet risk across six major hyperscalers.

• Combined capex projected to hit $785bn in 2026 before reaching roughly $1tn in 2027

• Direct debt across the six companies has reached about $460bn, with Alphabet's $85bn equity sale last month a notable funding move

• Lease commitments have ballooned to $1.2tn, of which more than $820bn relates to data centres not yet operational, which Moody's treats as debt-equivalent liabilities

• Immediate pressure sits on lower-rated Oracle (Baa2, negative outlook, two notches above junk) and CoreWeave (Ba3, high-yield)

• Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta still hold among the strongest corporate balance sheets globally, making near-term investment-grade downgrades unlikely

• Moody's flagged a circular AI ecosystem, with hyperscalers funding pre-IPO labs like OpenAI and Anthropic that then buy cloud capacity from those same backers

Source: CNBC

Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are up 48 pts (+0.55%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Wall Street closed a jittery week mixed, a heavy chipmaker selloff offsetting solid earnings, ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision and results from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon

• S&P 500 (+0.05%), Nasdaq (-0.64%), Dow (+0.45%), Russell 2000 (-0.35%), though breadth was very strong, Tech was the only sector to finish lower and the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.78%) outperformed by a wide margin

• US and Iran paused strikes for a second straight day and Tehran reported progress in Oman-brokered talks on Strait of Hormuz shipping, the first genuine de-escalation signal in two weeks

• Houthi missiles and drones struck Saudi Aramco facilities at Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday, opening a second energy front