ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 26th May

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, May 26. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 closes flat

[4:15 pm] The market barely moved today, with the S&P/ASX 200 closing flat and trading within a narrow range of +0.10% and -0.18%.

Gains from Technology (+1.08%), Materials (+0.44%) and Discretionary (+0.29%) offset weakness from Utilities (-2.39%), Telcos (-0.26%) and Financials (-0.23%).

Breadth was also a clean split, with 94 S&P/ASX 200 constituents closing higher, 94 lower and 12 unchanged.

The US market is closed tonight in observance for Memorial Day.

For detailed commentary and analysis - read today's Evening Wrap.

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Origin slumps on two catalysts

[3:40 pm] Origin Energy shares are trading around 5% lower, weighed by two negative catalysts.

APLNG-Sinopec contract review concluded over the weekend, by mutual agreement. Origin expects its share of APLNG underlying EBITDA to be $55m lower in 2H25. As a result, Citi has trimmed its FY25-26 core NPAT by 1% and 7% respectively.

As we noted below, Origin tweaked its FY25 EBITDA guidance, with:

• Energy Markets underlying EBITDA to be $1.3-1.4bn vs. prior $1.1-1.4bn, reflecting operational improvements and wholesale portfolio benefits

• Octopus Energy underlying EBITDA to be a loss in the range of $0-100m vs. prior guidance of a positive contribution of up to $100m amid unseasonably warm weather in the UK and one-off impacts

On May 1, Goldman Sachs forecasted FY25 Energy Markets and Octopus Energy underlying EBITDA of $1.34bn and $0.07bn respectively. This suggests the Energy Markets upgrade should not come as much of a surprise, while Octopus reflects a small downgrade. So overall, a small net negative.

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Stocks moving on unusual volume

[3:00 pm] These are the S&P/ASX 200 and small-to-mid ($200m - $1bn) stocks experiencing unusual volume, as a % of their 20-day average volumes.

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Wisetech gains on e2open acquisition

[1:45 pm] Wisetech shares are trading 5.0% higher and at the highest level sine 24-Feb after announcing its acquisition of e2open this morning. Here are some of the key takeaways from RBC Capital Markets analyst Garry Sherriff.

• Strategic Acquisition: WTC announced a debt-funded acquisition of US-listed E2Open for a US$2.1bn enterprise value, at ~10x FY25 EBITDA multiple, expected to close in 1H26 pending regulatory approval.

• Market Reception: The deal is viewed positively for its strategic fit, with WTC expecting it to be EPS accretive in the first year (pre-synergies, excluding M&A/integration costs).

• Strategic Benefits: i) Enhances WTC’s US market exposure with a larger revenue base; ii) Strengthens WTC’s Supply Chain Management capabilities, adding 500,000 connected enterprises to its customer base; iii) Offers network effects and opportunities to eliminate duplicative costs.

• Key Concerns: i) Post-deal leverage is elevated at ~3.5x ND/FY25E EBITDA, though expected to deleverage to <2x in the coming years; ii) E2Open’s lower EBITDA margins (35%) compared to WTC’s (50%) may impact margins, though WTC’s track record suggests potential for margin improvement through synergies; iii) E2Open’s history of 13 acquisitions since 2013, including the US$1.7bn BluJay Solutions deal in 2021, raises questions about integration complexity.

• Funding Structure: The acquisition, transaction costs, and working capital will be funded via a new, fully underwritten US$3.0bn debt facility, with all existing E2Open external debt to be repaid and retired upon completion.

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Stocks on the move

[12:30 pm] Here are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks making the biggest moves at noon.

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Elders tumbles on 1H25 results, earnings call highlights

[12:10 pm] Elders' exhibited volatile trading at the open, initially surging by up to 3.0% within minutes despite reporting weaker-than-expected revenues and profits for the first half of FY25. The rally quickly reversed, with the stock plummeting as much as 8% in a sharp vertical drop, and it is currently trading 5.9% lower.

Here are a few key takeaways from its earnings call:

• 2025 EBIT Guidance: Illustrative and not contingent on anticipated regional improvements.

• Quarterly Performance: Q1 2025 normalised to account for seasonal variations; Q2 experienced heightened impacts from regional conditions.

• Crop Protection Competition: Increased competition driven by traders discounting generic products in drier regions.

• Delta Acquisition Discussions: Ongoing talks with the ACCC highlight the highly competitive nature of the market.

• Livestock Commission Rates: Rates remain stable, though incentives are affecting gross margin calculations.

• Crop Protection Profitability: Gross profit contraction limited to drier areas, not widespread across all segments.

• Working Capital Fluctuations: Volatility driven by timing and large settlements, not indicative of typical trends.

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Small caps making moves

[11:05 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers as we head towards noon.

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Top gainers and losers at open

[10:30 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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NAB vs. Westpac

[10:25 am] Citi analysts observed that recent market developments have highlighted the uncertainty in choosing between National Australia Bank and Westpac Banking as a preferred financials pick.

The market reacted positively to NAB’s latest results, effectively reversing the underperformance seen after the February quarterly, which Citi now considers unwarranted.

In evaluating the near-term outlook for both banks, Citi finds similarities in their challenges, including revenue pressures, cost management, and bad debt concerns.

Investors view Westpac as facing greater near-term margin pressures due to its limited replicating portfolio, while NAB appears to have slightly weaker asset quality.

Over the longer term, Citi believes Westpac has a stronger opportunity to improve its return on equity by simplifying its operations, though execution risks remain significant.

In contrast, NAB must defend its enviable business banking franchise against competitive pressures. While Citi maintains Sell ratings on both banks, it favors Westpac for its compelling self-help narrative.

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Markets no longer shocked by Trump tariffs: Vanguard

[10:15 am] The US bond market's initial reaction to Trump's new EU tariff threat was a bounce from session lows. Though the US 10-year yield still finished the session down to 2 bps to 4.509%.

Vanguard's Head of US Treasuries says the "market has kind of slowed down now because it's happened before, and we know what happened before."

"It's kind of like the boy who cried wolf," he says. "The administration is not crazy, they have a plan and there is a limit [to how far they will go." he said.

Shortly after the tariff threat, Trump said he will extend the EU tariff deadline from 1-Jun to 9-Jun.

Bloomberg analysis estimates a 50% tariff on US$321bn of EU goods would reduce US GDP by 0.6% and raise inflation by more than 0.3%.

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Accent Chair David Gordon to retire

[9:55 am] Accent Group Chairman David Gordon is set to retire at the next AGM held on 21 November 2025.

• Mr Gordon joined Accent Group (then RCG Corporation Limited) as a Non-Executive Director in October 2006

• Gordon has played a pivotal role in Accent Group’s evolution into a leading digitally integrated retail and distribution business in Australia and New Zealand, with over 850 stores, 34 brands, and 40+ websites by 2024

• Gordon indirectly owns 2.59 million shares in the company

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Accent (AX1)

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WiseTech confirms acquisition of e2open

[9:45 am] Wisetech confirmed the acquisition of e2open for $3.30 per share cash, equating to an enterprise value of $2.1 billion. The acquisition is expected to be EPS accretive in year one.

e2open reported the below metrics in FY25:

• Revenue of $607.7m

• Adjusted EBITDA of $215.5m

• 5 product groups covering logistics, global trade, supply, channel and planning

Wisetech also reaffirmed its FY25 outlook, except for a $40 million one-off transaction cost to be recorded in FY25.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Wisetech (WTC)

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Amplitude Energy tracking towards top-end of guidance

[9:35 am] Amplitude Energy achieved a record-breaking monthly production rate of 66.9 TJ/day in April, marking the highest in the company's history.

The Offshore Gippsland Processing Plant (OGPP) has consistently surpassed 66 TJ/day on over 85% of days in the fourth quarter to date.

On May 14, the year-to-date production from OGPP for FY25 exceeded the full-year production of FY24, reaching 18.1 PJs. With stainless steel packing now installed in both absorbers and the chemical clean-in-place system fully operational, the company expects further improvements in production performance.

Amplitude says production will track towards the top end of its 69-73TJ/day guidance, though Macquarie (9-Apr) estimates are already sitting at 72TJ/day.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Amplitude Energy (AEL)

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Elders reports soft 1H25

[9:25 am] Elders has reported a broadly softer-than-expected 1H25. Though the result highlights a sharp year-on-year improvement, largely due to higher livestock prices and improved cost control.

• Revenue up 5% to $1.41bn vs. $1.56bn ests (9.6% miss)

• Underlying NPAT up 166% to $38.2m vs. 40.3m ests (5.2% miss)

• Interim dividend flat year-on-year at 18 cents per share

“Performance was impacted by prolonged dry conditions in some key cropping regions, causing lower rural products sales, but balanced by high demand and prices for livestock, which drove a significant improvement from the prior corresponding period and a strong first half overall. Livestock prices and demand are expected to remain strong, and a return to average seasonal conditions for the 2025 winter crop is forecast. These are all positive indicators for our business going into the second half," said chief executive Mark Allison.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Elders (ELD)

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Cash Converters exits 'Payday' lending

[9:15 am] Cash Converters will cease offering small loans as of 30 September 2025, reflecting ongoing regulatory developments in Australia.

Management believe this move will improve loan book credit quality and remain focused on growing new loan books and acquiring franchise stores in key corporate markets in Australia and the UK.

As of the 1H25 result, these small loans represented less than 18% of the total gross loan book, down from 32% in 1H23.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Cash Converters (CCV)

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Origin Energy adjusts FY25 guidance

[9:05 am] Origin Energy has made a few slight tweaks to its FY25 guidance.

• Energy Markets underlying EBITDA to be $1.3-1.4bn vs. prior $1.1-1.4bn, reflecting operational improvements and wholesale portfolio benefits

• Octopus Energy underlying EBITDA to be a loss in the range of $0-100m vs. prior guidance of a positive contribution of up to $100m amid unseasonably warm weather in the UK and one-off impacts

On May 1, Goldman Sachs forecasted FY25 Energy Markets and Octopus Energy underlying EBITDA of $1.34bn and $0.07bn respectively. This suggests the Energy Markets upgrade should not come as much of a surprise, while Octopus reflects a small downgrade.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Origin Energy (ORG)

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Word on the Street

[8:55 am] A few speculative M&A headlines floating around this morning.

• SGH chief financial officer Richard Richards visited Whyalla Steelworks but no decision has been made on a bid (AFR)

• A2 Milk mentioned M&A was on the agenda at its first-half FY25 earnings and the article notes to a potential acquisition in the manufacturing space (The Aus)

• Northern Star, Evolution Mining and Regis Resources among potential suitors running the ruler on Bellevue Gold (The Aus)

• Nufarm's recent selloff could drive a potential takeover offer for its Seed Technologies unit (The Aus)

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Top stories from Livewire

Andrew Mitchell: The market always wins | Andrew Mitchell of Ophir Asset Management warns that US policy uncertainty and rising bond yields signal a lower-growth environment, making companies with resilient earnings growth increasingly valuable. Ophir’s focus on small and mid-cap firms, like the under-the-radar Bravura, leverages strong management and mission-critical technology to capitalize on this scarcity, aiming for significant returns despite market volatility.

Less than 5% of stocks are “genuine winners” – here’s how to find them | Qiao Ma of Munro Partners says only 5% of companies are "genuine winners," defined by strong management, customer perception, and the ability to double earnings every five years, supported by structural tailwinds like security or climate. Despite market volatility, Munro's rigorous growth-focused process, exemplified by their high-conviction pick Axon Enterprise, leverages AI and industry networks to identify resilient small and mid-cap companies with strong fundamentals.

Meet the CEO behind Catapult's stunning 260% rise in the last year | Catapult, under CEO Will Lopes, has transformed into a SaaS-focused sports technology leader, achieving 19% revenue growth to US$116 million and positive free cash flow of US$8.6 million in FY24, driven by high-margin software and AI advancements. With a Rule of 40 target, the company leverages subscription growth, cost efficiencies, and global expansion to aim for a billion-dollar recurring revenue business, serving elite sports teams worldwide.

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What's driving stocks?

[8:40 am] US stocks continued to face selling pressure on Friday, weighed largely by tariff-related concerns:

• Trump said discussions with the EU was "going nowhere" and said a straight 50% tariff will be applied on the bloc from 1-June (he later extended this deadline to 9-June)

• Trump also warned Apple it needs to manufacture iPhones in the US or face a tariff of at least 25%

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Good morning!

[8:40 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are down 22pts (-0.35%) as the S&P 500 logged its fourth straight fall overnight on Trump tariff worries.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.