ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 23rd June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, June 23. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

ASX 200 defies headlines, inches lower

[4:30 pm] If you read only headlines today, you'd assume the market was down more than 2%.

All things considered, today was rather resilient at the index level, with the S&P/ASX 200 closing 0.36% lower after recovering from session lows of -1.00%. While the market is down seven of the last eight sessions, declines have been relatively muted at just 1.36%, keeping the index within 2% of all-time highs.

However, beneath the surface stability, market breadth told a different story with 155 S&P/ASX 200 constituents (78%) closing lower or flat. The index was propped up by key heavyweight stocks including Commonwealth Bank (+1.0%), Santos (+1.0%), Westpac (+0.63%), Wesfarmers (+0.3%) and CSL (+0.2%).

At the sector level, Financials (+0.35%) provided the strongest support while Energy (+0.13%) edged higher on the back of rising oil prices. By contrast, the high-flying Industrials sector (-1.40%) pulled back sharply and Materials (-1.32%) continued its downward spiral.

Despite this overall market calmness, investors remain on edge as they await Iran's response to recent developments.

Reject Shop shareholders vote in favour of Dollarama takeover

[4:20 pm] 97.30% of Reject Shop shareholders present and voting were in favour of the takeover by Canada's Dollarama. The scheme remains subject to the approval of a second court hearing and certain conditions within the scheme booklet.

Dollarama is likely to acquire The Reject Shop for $6.68 cash per share, with plans to grow the company's store network in Australia from 390 today to more than 700 stores by 2034.

Virgin set to list on Tuesday

[3:30 pm] Virgin Australia is set to list on Tuesday, at 12:00 pm AEST under the ticker "VGN".

The company is anticipated to have raised $685 million at an issue price of $2.90 per share.

Earlier this month, the AFR reported that: UBS said the transaction had “received strong support from domestic and global institutional anchor investors” and demand was “well in excess of the offer size”.

US share futures edge lower, bond yields steady

[2:22 pm] Debt and equity investors appear unmoved by the Middle East conflict, with US equity futures pointing to small losses at the opening bell tonight. The Nasdaq 100 futures are currently down 0.36%, with S&P/500 futures down 0.3%. The S&P/ASX 200 is down 0.4%.

On the bond market the Australian government 10-year bond traded virtually flat at 4.22%. This suggests investors are not panicking about the Middle East as yet. Benchmark crude oil futures are up 2% to US$75.33 a barrel.

By Tom Richardson.

UBS sounds alarm on lithium, says sell Pilbara Minerals, IGO

[1:54 pm] Broker UBS has warned it thinks consensus pricing for lithium and equities are still too high.

The local sector has been hammered by the lithium price collapsing more than 80% since 2023.

"We stay underweight in the sector, seeing an extended period of low prices ahead of further supply cuts," UBS said.

It has has a sell rating on Pilbara Minerals with a $1.10 price target. It's also sell rate on IGO Ltd, with a $3.60 price target.

It's neutral on Mineral Resources with a $25.70 price target and says to sell Liontown Resources with a 50 cent price target.

By Tom Richardson.

Shaw and Partners says buy Magnetic Resources

[1:29 pm] Broker Shaw and Partners is backing speculative gold play Magnetic Resources to make money for investors. The broker is positive on the gold price and says news that the developer has reached an agreement with the Wangkatja Tjungula Aboriginal Corporation (WTAC) is a positive.

Magnetic owns the rights to develop the Lady Julie North deposit in Laverton, Western Australia.

The stock has surged 42% in 2025 alone and fetched $1.60 on Monday.

Shaw's values it at $2.53 per share.

By Tom Richardson.

UBS says sell ANZ Bank shares

[1:11 pm] Broker UBS has put a sell rating on ANZ shares and cut its price target from $30 per share to $26.50.

"A new CEO offers a chance for a clean slate, and opportunity to reset," said UBS. "However, significant and decisive actions are required to enhance shareholder value. Establishing a strong foundation will require ANZ to adjust its capital levels, possibly through a DPOR [dividend payout ratio] reduction and concomitant DPS [dividend per share] cut."

The warnings of potential dividend cuts at ANZ bank sent shares down 1.4% to $28 at Monday lunchtime.

By Tom Richardson.

Bitcoin falls below $US100,000

[1:51pm] The bitcoin price fell under $US100,000 for the first time since early May on Monday morning, as traders booked profits and eyed an escalation in the war between Israel and Iran. Over the past couple of years bitcoin's price action has largely tracked other risk-on assets such as technology shares.

In the US last week, the GENIUS Act got been passed into law to support stablecoin legislation in another sign that President Trump's executive is keen to support digital assets.

By Tom Richardson.

Viva Energy rallies on E&P upgrade

[12:15 pm] Viva Energy shares are trading 3.8% higher ($2.15) after E&P upgraded the stock to "Positive" with a $2.90 target price, driven by reduced balance sheet risk and improving industry data, with convenience earnings likely at the top end of February 2025 guidance.

The ongoing conflict, involving Iran’s oil production (3% of global supply, 3mmbbl/d) and refining (2mmbbl/d), poses risks to energy markets, potentially tightening Asia Pacific balances if Iranian exports to China or refined product exports to Pakistan and Turkey (~0.75mmbbl/d) are disrupted.

Refining margins have improved over the past 6-9 months, with Viva Energy outperforming Ampol due to Ampol’s refinery challenges (maintenance, cyclone impacts, demurrage costs).

Commodities check-in

[12:10 pm] Key commodities continue to chop or fade early gains, including:

• Brent crude rallied as much as 4.1% to US$80.34 a barrel around 8:00 am AEST, currently up 1.7% to US$78.5

• Gold prices briefly up as much as 0.80% to US$3,398 an ounce, now down 0.28% to US$3,362

• US Dollar Index opened 0.34% higher to 99.1, now up 0.17% to 98.9

Small caps making moves

[11:45 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers.

Australian PMIs hit 3-month high

[10:50 am] Australia's PMI composite index hit a three-month high of 51.2 in April, up from 50.5 in May, reflecting growth in the services sector. Here are the key takeaways from the S&P report:

• Business Activity Growth: Australia’s private sector expanded faster in June 2025, marking the second-fastest growth in ten months.

• Sector Performance: Services sector growth accelerated, driving the overall increase, while manufacturing production rebounded after a May decline.

• New Orders Increase: Growth was supported by higher new order inflows, driven by domestic client interest and marketing efforts, with services seeing faster growth but manufacturing orders nearly stalling.

• Export Orders Decline: New export orders contracted sharply, the fastest in nearly a year, due to reduced foreign demand, particularly influenced by US trade policy.

• Business Sentiment: Overall sentiment improved to a five-month high, with service providers optimistic about new product launches and business development, but manufacturers were the least confident since October 2024 due to economic uncertainties.

• Employment Growth: Employment rose for the sixth consecutive month, with both sectors adding jobs, though at a slower pace than in May, enabling firms to clear backlogs at the fastest rate in seven months.

• Inflation Softening: Input cost inflation eased to a seven-month low, driven by slower service sector cost increases, while manufacturing faced higher shipping and raw material costs; output price inflation dropped to the lowest since November 2020 due to competitive pressures.

Source: S&P Global

Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:35 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

Adairs obliterated on margin deterioration

[10:15 am] Shares in Adairs tumbled 31% in early trade after an FY25 trading update flagged weaker-than-expected earnings.

• FY25 group sales between $614-618m, up approximately 6.1% vs a year ago

• FY25 underlying EBIT between $53.5-57m, up approximately 1.2% vs. a year ago

Despite still-positive growth, the update flagged a sharp deterioration in the second half of FY25:

• Second-half sales between $303.5-307.5m, up 5.7% vs. 2H24 (but sales momentum decelerating from 6.6% in 1H25)

• Second-half underlying EBIT between $20.5-24.0m, down 9.2% vs. 2H24

The company said it managed to maintain strong sales momentum throughout the second half of FY25, but largely driven by "elevated promotional activity aimed at driving sales and managing inventory ... [which] is adversely impacting gross margins."

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Adairs (ADH)

Lynas downgraded on valuation concerns: Macquarie

[9:50 am] Macquarie downgraded Lynas to Underperform, though the target price remains unchanged at $8.00.

"Despite our constructive production and price outlook, we note LYC's recent share price performance has exceeded our target and the underlying NdPr prices. Its A$9.30/share price has an implied NdPr price of >US$95/kg," the analysts said in a note this morning

Lendlease target price downgrade: Citi

[9:48 am] Citi cut its Lendlease target price from $7.50 to $6.80 due to lower than previously forecast profits on asset sales and earning assumptions. Though the analysts remain Buy rated and expect some near-term upside from the recent sale of Capella Capital. Here are the key takeaways:

• Capella Capital Sale Completed: LLC finalised the sale of Capella Capital to Sojitz Corporation, securing $70 million in after-tax profits for FY25, alongside $145 million from Military Housing and $10-30 million from a UK development joint venture.

• Buyback Dependency: The announced share buyback hinges on further asset sales, specifically the Australian Retirement business and TRX retail in Malaysia, which are expected to close soon.

• Funds Management Uncertainty: Potential loss of ~$10 billion in assets under management (AUM) from Lendlease’s APPF funds, representing ~20% of LLC’s $49.6 billion investment management AUM, could impact ~4-5% of earnings and hinder growth prospects.

• Earnings Forecast Adjustments: FY25 earnings slightly increased due to asset sale profits, but FY26 and FY27 forecasts were lowered due to revised assumptions for development, investment earnings, and reduced asset sale profits.

Shape Australia reports strong finish to FY25

[9:44 am] National fitout and construction services company, SHAPE, provided a business update for FY25. Here are the unaudited results for the period ending 30 June 2025:

• Revenue up ~14% to $950-960m vs. $839m a year ago

• EBITDA up ~25% to $32-33m vs. $25.9m a year ago

• NPAT up ~31% to $20.5-21.5m vs. $16m a year ago

• Backlog orders at $460m, relatively unchanged vs a year ago

Despite limited consensus data and institutional coverage, the stock’s numbers look robust at first glance. It has surged 35% year-to-date and gained 72% over the past twelve months.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Shape Australia (SHA)

Metcash reports FY25 results

[9:35 am] Metcash delivered an FY25 result that was in-line with its recent trading update (upgraded FY25 earnings expectations on 10 June). Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue up 8.9% to $17.3bn

• Underlying EBIT up 2.3% to $507.8m vs. $504-508m guidance

• Underlying profit after tax down 2.4% to $275.5m vs. $273-277m guidance

• Final dividend of 9.5 cents per share vs. UBS estimates of 8.9 cents (6.7% beat)

The company’s trading update two weeks ago set clear expectations, and today's results contained with no surprises. Though, the actual figures lean toward the upper end of the upgraded guidance.

The result also provided a trading update for the first seven weeks of FY26 (May-Jun):

• Total group sales up 4.7%, and up 2.7% excluding Superior Foods and tobacco

• Total Foods sales (ex-tobacco) up 17%

• Total supermarket sales up 2.9%

• In Hardware, total sales up 1.1%, with the "business having cycled the acquisitions of Alpine Frame & Truss and Bianco Building Supplies that were acquired in March last year"

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Metcash (MTS)

Santos takeover faces SA government demands

[9:20 am] The South Australian government demands that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) commit to maintaining Santos’ headquarters in Adelaide and invest significantly in state projects to support the $36 billion takeover bid, according to the AFR.

SA Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis is cautious, prioritising job retention and reinvestment in the Cooper Basin, expressing concern that the basin may be insignificant to ADNOC’s global operations.

Santos, founded over 70 years ago, was protected by a 15% shareholding cap until 2007, and past government skepticism, like the 2001 rejection of Shell’s Woodside bid, highlights national interest concerns.

The SA government is conducting a cost-benefit analysis to assess the takeover’s impact on domestic gas supply, Cooper Basin investment, and pipeline infrastructure, amid fears of prioritisation of LNG exports.

Source: AFR

US dollar, oil and gold prices fade early gains

[9:16 am] Safe havens and oil prices opened sharply higher on Monday, but have quickly given back early gains.

• Brent crude rallied as much as 4.1% to US$80.34 a barrel around 8:00 am AEST, currently up 2.1% to US$78.84

• Gold prices briefly up as much as 0.80% to US$3,398 an ounce, currently up 0.15% to US$3,376

• US Dollar Index opened 0.34% higher to 99.1, currently up 0.18% to 98.95

Spark New Zealand to sell its Hutchinson stake

[9:00 am] Spark New Zealand has accepted an offer from Hutchison Telecommunications Amsterdam BV (HTABV), to sell its 10% stake Hutchison Telecommunications Australia.

On 22 May, HTABV launched an off-market takeover bid for Hutchison Australia, at 3.2 cents cash per share or a 52% premium to its last close.

"The decision to divest the shareholding is consistent with Spark’s current strategic review of non-core assets," says Spark.

The transaction is expected to deliver cash proceeds of NZ$47 million in July 2025, which will be used to reduce debt.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Spark New Zealand (SPK)

Broker upgrades and downgrades

[8:57 am] UBS downgraded several heavyweight resource names including Fortescue, Liontown and Pilbara Minerals.

• ANZ downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $26.50 from $30 (UBS)

• Fortescue downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $16 from $17.50 (UBS)

• IGO Limited downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $4.10 from $4.40 (UBS)

• Liontown Resources downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target remains at $0.50 (UBS)

• Lovisa upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $30 from $26 (UBS)

• Lynas Rare Earths downgraded to Underperform from Neutral; target remains $8.00 (MQG)

• Pilbara Minerals downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $1.30 from $1.60 (UBS)

• REA Group downgraded to Hold from Buy; target cut to $262 from $267 (BP)

US airstrikes in Iran

[8:55 am] American B-2 bombers struck Iran’s three main nuclear sites — Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — on Sunday, targeting uranium enrichment facilities. Here's what you need to know:

• Trump’s Statement: President Trump announced the strikes obliterated Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity, calling Iran the “world’s No. 1 state sponsor of terror” and threatening further attacks if Iran doesn’t seek peace.

• Escalation of Conflict: The strikes mark a significant escalation, involving the US directly in the Iran-Israel conflict, which began with Israel’s strikes on Iran nine days prior.

• Iran’s Response: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the US action “outrageous” with “everlasting consequences,” and Iran reserved the right to defend itself.

• Nuclear Sites and Safety: Iran’s nuclear agency reported no radiation contamination, having taken precautions. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had warned against attacking nuclear facilities due to radiation risks.

• Iran’s Nuclear Program: Iran has enriched uranium beyond civilian needs, nearing weapons-grade levels, though US intelligence suggests no final decision to build a nuclear bomb.

• Potential Consequences: Iran may retaliate via cyberattacks, attacks on US assets, or disrupting oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. It could also exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, limiting IAEA oversight.

• International Reactions: US allies in Europe, the Middle East, and the IAEA opposed the strikes. Israel was informed and coordinated with the US, while Russia and China condemned the actions but offered little support to Iran.

• Iran’s Dilemma: Iran faces a choice between limited retaliation to avoid further escalation or risking a broader US campaign that could threaten the regime’s survival.

Good morning!

[8:40 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures is down 20pts (-0.23%) after the US attacked three of Iran's main nuclear sites on Sunday. The market is currently digesting weekend headlines, with volatile moves for oil, gold and futures.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.